Bills Fantasy Friday: Week 8 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em
Welcome back once again to Fantasy Friday here at Buffalo Rumblings. The Buffalo Bills are coming off back-to-back road victories in consecutive weeks for the first time since 2004, as they return home to host the streaking Houston Texans. The Texans have won three of four and have six straight games in which they have scored over 20 points. Buffalo's defense posted another solid performance last week against the sagging Panthers, despite giving up a lot of yards once again. They did a nice job of keeping the Panthers off the scoreboard and forcing four more turnovers after forcing six the week before. This week's game against the Texans poses a much stiffer challenge to the vulnerable Bills defense. Those Texans also bring in a defense that has allowed nearly as many yards as the Bills, in addition to three points more per game. Both teams have individual players that can make some noise for your fantasy teams this week. Join me after the jump for recommendations on how to handle them this week.
Quarterbacks
Matt Schaub - So far this season, Schaub has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and possibly the best fantasy quarterback to date. He leads the NFL with 2,074 yards passing and 16 touchdowns, completes almost 66% of his passes, averages 8.3 yards per attempt and sports a 104.4 QB rating that makes us all jealous. He's finally becoming everything the Texans hope he'd be when they acquired him from Atlanta a few years ago. The Bills' pass defense has had its moment so far this season. They currently rank 10th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, although part of me believes they're legit while part of me believes that's due to having a terrible run defense and facing a slew of crappy quarterbacks. What is legit is the 5.8 yards per attempt allowed, the 58.0 QB rating they've given up and even the NFL best 13 interceptions. They can be taken advantage of, however. Jake Delhomme (!) threw for over 300 yards last week, but in typical Delhomme fashion he literally threw the game away. I don't think Schaub will be doing that this week. Start him as you always would, but watch out for inclement weather. Verdict: Start 'Em
Ryan Fitzpatrick - As much as some Bills fans may want to think otherwise, Fitzpatrick has been pretty terrible these past two weeks. He's averaging 120 yards per game, 5.1 yards per attempt and is completing less than 45% of his passes. He's in the same league as the Derek Anderson and JaMarcus Russell's of the NFL. Don't even think about starting him even against the Texans middle of the road pass defense. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Running Backs
Steve Slaton - Slaton has been somewhat of a fantasy disappointment, although he really isn't one. His rushing numbers are way down from last season when he rushed for almost 1,300 yards, 80 yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry and 9 touchdowns. This season he's down to 49 yards per game, 3.1 yards per carry and 2 touchdowns. Pretty frightening numbers, I'd say. He's made up for those numbers by putting up excellent numbers in the Texans' passing game, which has really helped Schaub light up the fantasy world. Thus far, Slaton has caught 27 passes for 304 yards and 3 touchdowns, helping maintain his top 10 fantasy RB status. Look for his success to continue this week. I expect his rushing numbers to increase this week while his receiving totals continue to stay strong. 130 total yards and a touchdown or two seems like a pretty reasonable expectation this week. He's an every week starter, anyhow. Verdict: Start 'Em
Marshawn Lynch - Despite a juicy match-up against a poor Panthers run defense last week, Lynch and the running game again struggled. The Texans have allowed roughly 115 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry, along with a whopping 10 rushing touchdowns so far this season. Opportunities will again be there for Lynch to have a strong game. Unfortunately, with the offensive line continuing to struggle, expectations should remain tempered. It wouldn't surprise me if he posted solid numbers this week as the team will likely ride him early and often. He reached the end zone for the first time last week, and with the Texans struggles there, it wouldn't be too surprising if he walked into the end zone again this week. The Bills need to get him more involved in the passing game again as he's caught just three total passes the past two games. Lynch is definitely a starter as a flex this week, while starting him as a RB2 is a bit more risky. Verdict: Start 'Em in all
Fred Jackson - Jackson has pretty much fallen off the fantasy radar after his hot start. He gave fantasy owners a total of 2 rushing yards last week. Expect the struggles to continue as his touches continue to dwindle. Until he has a bounce back game, you should be looking elsewhere. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Wide Receivers
Andre Johnson - Johnson left last week's victory over San Francisco with a bruised lung after he began coughing up blood. He practiced Thursday and looks good to go. Bruised lung, bloody lung, no lung, it wouldn't matter. Johnson is an every week starter and one of the best in the league. As a Bills fan, just hope he doesn't kill us too badly. Verdict: Start 'Em
Kevin Walter - Walter has been very disappointing so far this season after a solid 2008 that saw him put up 899 yards and 8 touchdowns. He has just 18 catches for 232 yards and a touchdown this year while the Texans have turned elsewhere (RB and TE) for production. He's definitely a guy you want to stash on your bench at this point because he can become a bigger factor at any time, but don't start him. Remember, the Bills have allowed just one touchdown to a WR all season. There are plenty of better options this week. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Jacoby Jones - Jones and David Anderson rotate as the 3rd WR, but neither has a huge role in the offense. Jones does find the end zone though, having scored four touchdowns already this season, three receiving and one kick return. He also had a punt return touchdown nullified by penalty last week. If you are in need of a bye week fill-in, Jones could be a nice sleeper option for you, especially if return yards and touchdowns factor into your league's scoring. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Lee Evans - Evans has seen a return to relevance with Fitzpatrick under center. He has 9 catches for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns the past two weeks and looks to have a good match-up this week. Fitzpatrick has really looked Evans' way as he accumulated 20 total targets against the Jets and Panthers (he has just 48 for the season). Expect that to continue. I said I wouldn't recommend using him again, but I feel almost compelled to do so for one week only. Assuming the weather is okay, I expect Fitzpatrick to continue trying to get Evans heavily involved, including another deep ball or two. With some good receivers on bye again this week (Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Dwayne Bowe), Evans makes for a good one week start. I'm going to go ahead and do it, so you know who to blame when he catches just one pass this week....Verdict: Start 'Em
Terrell Owens - Owens looks nothing like the player he once was. At this point, it's a positive if he simply catches a pass thrown his way. His hands and concentration seem to have completely vanished. There's no way I would suggest starting him any time soon. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Tight Ends
Owen Daniels - Daniels is one of the best and most athletic tight ends in the NFL. He's also an excellent pass catcher and is really the Texans' #2 receiver. The Bills have struggled all season with TE's, including last week's 9 receptions and 135 yards they allowed to the Panthers' "dynamic" trio of Dante Rosario, Jeff King and Gary Barnidge. Daniels is coming off a 7-reception, 123 yard, one touchdown performance against the 49ers, and scored 2 touchdowns the prior week. All signs point to similar results this week. Like Andre Johnson, Daniels is a no-brainer every week. Verdict: Start 'Em
Shawn Nelson - It's too bad Nelson continues to miss practice (and likely this game) due to migraines because he'd have a chance to put up some big numbers against the Texans. Last week Vernon Davis abused the Texans secondary deep over the middle. It would have been nice to see Nelson get the opportunity to face that unit, but it's looking unlikely. Derek Fine isn't an option here, either. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Kickers
Kris Brown - Kicking for a prolific offense is always a good thing, though Brown hasn't had the attempts he's gotten in year's past. With just six field goals in nine attempts so far this season, Brown is on pace to finished with barely half of the 29 FG's he made last year. He makes for a good play this week, though. The Bills continue to do a decent job of keeping teams out of the end zone, so look for Brown to get some attempts this week. Verdict: Start 'Em
Rian Lindell - He put up two FG's and two extra points last week, justifying a start. I'll go back to the well and say Lindell gets multiple chances again this week. Verdict: Start 'Em
Defense/Special Teams
Houston D/ST - The Texans have picked off just four passes and sacked the quarterback nine times. They aren't much of a fantasy defense, though Fitzpatrick is liable to self-destruct at any time. I understand why some would start the Texans this week, but I don't think the unit is good enough to go with. Go pick up Arizona or San Diego's defense if you need a D/ST. Verdict: Sit'Em
Buffalo D/ST - The Bills have forced 10 turnovers the past two weeks, and added four sacks. They aren't facing Mark Sanchez or Jake Delhomme this week, though. It's hard to imagine them having another productive fantasy performance against Schaub and the Texans' offense. Verdict: Sit'Em
Sleepers
Jacoby Jones - As mentioned above, Jones could be a nice sleeper option for those of you who get points for return statistics this week. With a heavy dose of attention being paid to Johnson and Daniels by the Bills secondary, Jones could see himself with some advantageous coverage on offense. He's a big play guy who could burn the Bills this week.
Terrell Owens - Eh, why not? There aren't too many other options on the Bills to surprise. Owens has been terrible this season, and there aren't too many fantasy owners counting on him anymore. Therefore, he now is relegated to sleeper status at best. Maybe this is all he needs....everyone writing him off giving him even more ammunition to have a huge week. Well, we can hope, can't we?
*****
Tough match-up for the Bills defense this week, as they'll have their work cut out for them against some of the top individual fantasy players in the league. Look for the Texans to accumulate a ton of yardage, but touchdowns may again be harder to come by against the Bills. Let's just hope the Bills offense shows some life this week, too. As always, good luck and use this comments section to discuss all of your fantasy needs!
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Comments
dang it K
your going to jinx me and the Bills. I’ve been starting Lee the last two weeks despite sit em warnings and won because of him. Now that your saying start em I think you’re going to jinx it! You should have kept saying sit em! it was working!!
The no huddle is gone, please sign tackles Runyan, Jones or Walker
by poz on Oct 30, 2009 7:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m starting him again, after sitting him the previous 2 weeks. My WR options suck in both leagues i’m in…well aside from that Miles Austin kid =). After having him on my team, Calvin Johnson seems overrated.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Oct 30, 2009 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm hoping
to God that wind picks up. got to find a way to run the ball this week. For once I’d like to see our offense have MORE plays than the other team!
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
by MARVelous on Oct 30, 2009 8:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
TO will come alive this week!
He definitely is the sleeper pick this week, as Houston’s secondary is weak, and TO is overdue for a breakout game, at home, in Buffalo!
They are hard to play but not hard to beat.
- Mike Lombardi on the Buffalo Bills
by Sluss88 on Oct 30, 2009 8:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ronnie Brown against the Jets or Thomas Jones against the Fish? arrggg
by quantumuprising on Oct 30, 2009 9:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What are your other options? I’m not sure I wouldn’t start both.
Bill Polian and AJ Smith are gone, so there's not the usual balance between "sane" and "others." Ralph has mentally checked out since 1994. It's a very dangerous time. The coalition for reason is extremely weak.
by thatguy34 on Oct 30, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Both sound good, Brown over Jones
They are hard to play but not hard to beat.
- Mike Lombardi on the Buffalo Bills
by Sluss88 on Oct 30, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sooooooo….. question.
Orton at Bal
McNabb at Phi
Garrard at Ten
???
I’m actually leaning towards Garrard……
I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
Trent Edwards - Backup QB until furthur notice. Care to prove me wrong Trent?
by J2 on Oct 30, 2009 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow. That’s a nice problem to have.
Orton – Has had 220+ yards and 1+ TD in 5 of 6 games. Baltimore’s D is not what it once was.
McNabb – Has 14 TDs compared to 1 INT in his past eight games versus the Giants, three of those 300-yard passing efforts.
Garrard – Had 323 yards and 3 TDs in Week 4 versus the Titans.
I’d probably rank them Garrard, McNabb, Orton…but it’s tough to go wrong there.
Bill Polian and AJ Smith are gone, so there's not the usual balance between "sane" and "others." Ralph has mentally checked out since 1994. It's a very dangerous time. The coalition for reason is extremely weak.
by thatguy34 on Oct 30, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
McNabb at Phi
lol – McNabb at NYG
I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
Trent Edwards - Backup QB until furthur notice. Care to prove me wrong Trent?
by J2 on Oct 30, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think NYG @ McNabb actually
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Oct 30, 2009 3:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Marshawn Lynch – Despite a juicy match-up against a poor Panthers run defense last week, Lynch and the running game again struggled. The Texans have allowed roughly 115 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry, along with a whopping 10 rushing touchdowns so far this season. Opportunities will again be there for Lynch to have a strong game.
While true, it’s a bit misleading K. In their first three games against the Jets, Titans, and Jags, the Texans gave up 167 yards rushing & 2 TDs, 222 yards rushing & 2 TDs, 154 yards rushing & 3 TDs, respectively.
Since then, against the Cards, Bengals, and San Fran, they have given up 41 yards rushing & 1 TD, 46 yards rushing & 1 TD, and 48 yards rushing & 0 TDs, respectively.
The Jets have the #1 rush offense, the Titans have #6, and Jax has #11. The Cards are ranked #32, the Bengals are #9, and the 49ers are #22.
So the Texans have played better against the lesser rush offenses, but they have improved their rush defense. The Bills rush offense is ranked #15 but a large bulk of those yards came in week 2 against Tampa when they put up 187 yards. I would severely temper my expectations for Lynch. I could see him getting 8-12 points in your standard format leagues, but I don’t see much more, and I could def. see a lot less.
Bill Polian and AJ Smith are gone, so there's not the usual balance between "sane" and "others." Ralph has mentally checked out since 1994. It's a very dangerous time. The coalition for reason is extremely weak.
by thatguy34 on Oct 30, 2009 10:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is true.
Texans first 3 games were abysmal. Last 4 games are potentially league leading in rushing defense.
The result of scheme and personnel changes.
I would not count on a big day rushing againt Houston based on their last 4 performances.
Of course the weather is going to be a factor so you may get a decent day rushing by virtue of the fact that noone will be throwing much if it is rainy AND windy.
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by TexansForever on Oct 30, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can anyone explain to me why Bernard Berrian sucks so much?
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Oct 30, 2009 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Old, has a bad hamstring, is on a team with 2 other stud WR’s…
They are hard to play but not hard to beat.
- Mike Lombardi on the Buffalo Bills
by Sluss88 on Oct 30, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s a mirror image of Lee Evans. I wouldn’t call him old.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Oct 30, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mirror image? Don’t see that… Berrian is 29, same age as me (1 yr older than Evans), for a mediocre WR, that is kind of old. Evans isn’t mediocre, in fact if he played for about any other NFL team, he would be a stud.
And before this argument starts, TO is not ancient since he’s 35, he is still in 25 year old shape, just has doo-doo QB’s and 90 year old hands!
They are hard to play but not hard to beat.
- Mike Lombardi on the Buffalo Bills
by Sluss88 on Oct 30, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
About your avatar
I have had Bison meat. It was gamey but actually quite good. I don’t know if anyone would want to eat the Bills though. Besides the Bovine flu, we have a bad case hoof in mouth disease.
by Ono on Oct 30, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All I know is Dan Cortez gave TO a run for his money on that superstars show, even in the sand sprints.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Oct 30, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My comment was 2 separate thoughts. I have heard on more than one occasion, Berrian and Evans compared to each other. They play similar roles, and honestly their productions are feast or famine.
I don’t see 29 as old for a WR. WR is one of the longer-played positons in the game.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Oct 30, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, 29 is far from young, but for a WR it’s the prime of their careers. The tail end of their prime, but not old. And here’s the career stats for Berrian and Evans:
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/players/1866/Lee_Evans/career
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/players/3068/Bernard_Berrian/career
Evans > Berrian, but they are clearly similiar players and much closer than the average Bills fans probably thinks. I think Evans runs better routes and has much, much, better hands, but they are both inconsistent deep threats.
I’d guess that Berrian is struggling because it isn’t really in the game plan for Favre to wing it around. They’ve got a dynamite run game, some guys who can do damage after the catch and a great defense. I think Berrian will do well down the stretch as teams continue to key on the run, start to pay more attention to Harvin and Minnesota faces some tough competition, but not Steelers-esque defenses.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
by kaisertown on Oct 31, 2009 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His hands are TO-like
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Oct 30, 2009 3:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Owen Daniels
has been wonderful for me. What I need is for the Bills to have a major offensive outburst (something like 30 something points in the first two quarters)and scoring turnovers so that Schaub has to throw a few touchdowns to Daniels to catch up. This way I can eat my cake and have it. The Bill win and I get points.
BTW, two weeks ago I picked up Miles Austin and Sidney Rice giving up Pierre Garcon and Eddie Royal and these guys have made me look like a genius.
Schaub has been a great fantasy QB but I’m not sure that he’s been better than Brees or Rodgers or Brady. I have Rodgers and he is awesome.
I had Buffalo’s defense last week and got 11-ish points—not bad. I dropped them this week. I just don’t see a slugfest. i think points will be scored in this game.
by Ono on Oct 30, 2009 12:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I snagged Austin in our BR league…best move of my season so far.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Oct 30, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wr help
should I get devin hester and drop devery henderson my other wr are andre johnson , henderson, tj housmanadeh and mario manningham.
by bills21 on Oct 30, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, no brainer
And what’s with Devery Henderson? It seems someone is asking about him every week. Why do people even own that guy? He’s terrible!
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Oct 30, 2009 3:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
why own henderson
I and maybe other people think that brees will throw to him alot and for him to get touchdowns.
by bills21 on Oct 30, 2009 3:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is spot on K. After reading half a season’s worth of these, my only recomendation might be that the sleepers don’t have to be such deep choices. There’s nothing wrong with saying that Marshawn and Kris Brown are solid sleeper candidates as many people play in shallow leagues and those two will ride the pine in many leagues this weekend.
I literally agree with every single start/sit decision. I guess one could play Jackson as a flex in a ppr league, but that’s about it.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
by kaisertown on Oct 31, 2009 2:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
flex spot thoughts
I play PPR with three starting WRs two starting RBs and a flex spot for QB, WR, TE, or RB. QBs get 6 pts a touchdown, -2 a pick. I’m going to start Reggie Wayne, Nate Burleson, Lee Evans at WR, Steven Jackson at RB. For the second running back would you start Ryan Grant or Ricky Williams (who has been sitting on my bench but is leading all my backs in points). From there would you start Devin Hester, Grant/Ricky, or Vince Young at the flex?
The no huddle is gone, please sign tackles Runyan, Jones or Walker
by poz on Oct 31, 2009 5:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
WR thoughts
I need to pick 1 WR out of this group in a standard league – Calvin Johnson, T.O., Eddie Royal, or Jeremy Maclin. As you can see, my corps is very weak (which is why I typically go with RB at my flex spot). Right now I’m thinking a gimpy Johnson is better than the rest, but if they sit him I get nothing.
by billskk69 on Nov 1, 2009 8:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well Johnson if he plays
If not….ugh
I guess Eddie Royal? I think I’d search the waiver wire before starting any of those 3. I’d have dumped TO already and Maclin has had just one game. Royal has been pretty useless for much of the year too.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Nov 1, 2009 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Steve Slaton cost me a point this week. Ew.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
"Matt’s pretty valuable to y’all. Cherish him." - BG
by MattRichWarren on Nov 1, 2009 3:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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