Keys to Victory: Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans

by Kurupt on Oct 31, 2009 8:03 AM EDT in News Comment 40 comments

The Buffalo Bills host the Houston Texans at 1PM Sunday, as both teams are coming in hot. The Bills have won consecutive road games, while the Texans have won three of four and have an offense that is really clicking. The teams have some similarities, but will be playing much different styles of football in this game. The Texans are looking to build their playoff resume and move towards a playoff berth, while the Bills are looking to continue making a move towards a surprising late season run. What do the Bills need to do to win this week? Let's find out.

Get after Schaub: I've watched the Texans a lot the past couple of seasons, mostly because they have an exciting offense and it makes me jealous. I've noticed that Matt Schaub will throw off his back foot and get very little on his passes when he can't fully step into them. This tendency has led to interceptions and overall poor throws in the past, and the Bills defense needs to make that happen again. If Schaub is allowed to sit back there unscathed, and find Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Steve Slaton and the other Texans' weapons, the Bills will have little chance of pulling out a victory. He's not going to self destruct and give the game to the Bills like Mark Sanchez or Jake Delhomme.

Slow Johnson and Daniels: Teams that have beaten the Texans this year have done a pretty good job of slowing down Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. In the Texans' three losses, Johnson has caught 16 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns, while Daniels added 17 receptions for 176 yards and a touchdown. In the four wins, including last week when he left with a bruised lung, Johnson has 22 receptions for 412 yards and two touchdowns. Daniels has caught 22 passes for 321 yards and four touchdowns in the wins. Obviously, the numbers aren't bad in the losses but you can see that the yards per catch for both is higher in wins, which shouldn't come as a surprise. If the Bills can limit the deep and intermediate passes with Johnson and Daniels and hold them to the underneath stuff, the likelihood of holding them down increases.

Keep getting Evans involved: Pretty obvious, right? Lee Evans has looked energized with Ryan Fitzpatrick in the lineup, putting up 9 receptions, 143 yards and two touchdowns these past two games. To better understand how big of an improvement that is, consider that in the five previous games, Evans had just 12 receptions for 159 yards and a touchdown. Besides the next key to victory, Evans may have been the biggest factor for why the Bills have consecutive road victories under their belt. With Terrell Owens looking totally washed up, the Bills need Evans' big play ability to come through once again.

Win the turnover battle: Actually, it'd be nice to dominate it again. This is probably the biggest key to victory for this week, as turnovers have played such a huge role in Bills games, wins and losses, so far this season. Protecting the ball on offense and avoiding giving the Texans short fields will be crucial. Giving Fitzpatrick and the offense short fields is just what the doctor ordered (see last week). Let's hope the slew of turnovers forced continues for the Bills defense on Sunday.

Don't get down big early: The Bills aren't winning this game if they fall behind by multiple scores early. I don't believe Fitzpatrick can lead this offense to enough points, if that were to be the case. I also find it hard to believe the Bills defense would be able to hold the Texans down for the rest of the game in such a situation. The Bills need this to be another ugly game. A shootout isn't happening with the Bills offense involved, so keeping the game close and the Texans out of the end zone will be huge. The Texans struggled to hold onto a 21-point lead last week against the 49ers, but can any of you envision a Fitzpatrick-lead Bills offense coming back from such a deficit? I can't.

Put a helmet on Slaton: Steve Slaton has been a fumbling machine, to the tune of SIX fumbles (and four lost) so far this year. Putting a helmet on the ball when he's carrying it or trying to rip it out may result in a cheap turnover or two. If the Bills are to win the turnover battle, this is a good place to start.

Get Mr. Wilson that ring: After confusion about why the ring ceremony to celebrate Bills' owner Ralph Wilson's Hall of Fame induction was postponed during the Browns game, let's hope there is no reason for controversy this week. Mr. Wilson is scheduled to be presented with his ring at halftime this week, so it'd be nice if the team played a strong first half so he can get his proper recognition without being bombarded with boos.

Win Special Teams: The Texans have a very good return duo in Jacoby Jones and Andre Davis, and both have had big returns over the past few seasons. The Bills have begun to cut out some of their costly special teams errors, so they'll need that to continue this week. Good kick coverage and keeping the Texans deeper in their own territory will be a big part of deciding whether the Bills will win their third straight. There's no need to give a good offense a special teams touchdown or good field position in a game like this.

Continue limiting mistakes: Turnovers and penalties (only 3 last week!) have gone down in the past two wins. That trend needs to continue. The young players have limited their penalties recently; now they just need to step up their play.

*****

The Texans are playing good football and seem to be flying under the radar right now. This is not going to be an easy game for Buffalo, even at home and coming off a pair of victories. Matt Schaub and the Texans' offense present a major challenge to the injury depleted Bills defense. The entire team needs to step it up this week if the Bills are going to pull off the semi-upset. Let's go Buffalo!

0 recs | Comment 40 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

What about getting Fred Jackson involved more?

by The Wagon on Oct 31, 2009 9:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think this HAS to happen. He’s been running much better this year at the point of attack. Lynch looks rough out there most times.

Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.

by TheAfghanTwilight on Oct 31, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its the line….neither of the backs is doing very well, and our line has t come together.
Ona side note about the O line: we have to be rooting for these guys to get it done. They are young and talented, and their backs are against the wall. As fans we need to support our guys out there on the field so that can get it done

Good Luck With Your Firings Mr. Wilson….Go Bills!

by killascript on Oct 31, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's the carry consistency.

We’ve had crap week 1 and crap week 7, and obviously there’s a difference in the run game. It’s staying on the field longer than 3 plays at a time. It’s about splitting drives for the backs, not carries.

GO BLUE!!!

by Kumario! on Oct 31, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed on getting after Matt Schuab.

An all day affair, not only pressure but hits, knock downs and sacks. The wind must not be the only thing swirling in Orchard Park tomarrow. Wagon brings up a good point, one I thought of this week as well.

We cannot depend on our QB play to win many games for us. Doesn’t matter who the QB is we just aren’t strong enough there. Our running game needs a serious influence. Marshawn needs a serious influence. For many reasons not all his, our running game has been a non factor. Freddy could be the key here. Marshawn was handed the starting role back when he returned from suspension. Lets start alternating possesions between Marshawn and Freddy.

Of course with McIntyre out that would mean Fine and Stupar would be key blockers. The running game is a must going forward.

Excuses are a sign of weakness!!!!!!

by VanScottM on Oct 31, 2009 9:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It’ll have to be with your front 4. If you guys blitz too much we’ll tear you apart with screens. Your best pass rush from what I understand has been from your DEs, and our tackles are much much better then our guards. Should be an interesting match up.

by nolander on Oct 31, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

can any of you envision a Fitzpatrick-lead Bills offense coming back from such a deficit? I can’t.

I’m sure niners fans thought the same about their back up Alex Smith – till he did it. We don’t know what Fitz can do with a deficit, he hasn’t played with one yet.

The no huddle is gone, please sign tackles Runyan, Jones or Walker

by poz on Oct 31, 2009 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We’ve seen his inaccurate passes enough to know it’d be nearly impossible for him to lead us back from a 14+ point deficit.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Oct 31, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

When was the last time the offense scored 2 tds on sustained drives in a game (Byrd setting them up at the 7 doesn’t count)?

Trample the weak, hurdle the dead!

by fansince83 on Oct 31, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

all I'm saying is

Fitz plays gutsy and is willing to throw deep to Lee, I don’t know if I have less confidence in him to lead a comeback then Trent.

The no huddle is gone, please sign tackles Runyan, Jones or Walker

by poz on Oct 31, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True (however, during the 5-1 stretch last year, Trent had several 4th quarter comback wins). It would just be a little more reassuring if the O showed any ability to have more than one sustained scoring drive a game. If they showed they could do that, we might believe they could come back from being down 1+ scores.

Trample the weak, hurdle the dead!

by fansince83 on Oct 31, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Short memory

Didn’t Fitz lead the Bills back from a 13-point deficit two weeks ago against a D that was thought to be among the best in the league? We got ints, but if i recall, all but one was like receiving a punt or else should have been dropped (4th-down ints that lost us yardage.) Of course our D had to shut down the Jets for this to happen.

by Sixteenthback on Oct 31, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

good point

he did do that already. The one thing about having Lee Evans is that if you have the QB willing to wing it to him, we can get back in games quickly

The no huddle is gone, please sign tackles Runyan, Jones or Walker

by poz on Oct 31, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And

Almost gave that game away in OT with the pick he threw…

Trample the weak, hurdle the dead!

by fansince83 on Oct 31, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not the point

I’m talking about doing that going against an offense that is very good, can put points on the board and doesn’t turn it over 6 times. I don’t think our offense can score enough to keep up with Houston. Getting behind early is going to really exacerbate the problem.

Matt Schaub isn’t Mark Sanchez and is not going to throw 5 picks to keep us in the game.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Oct 31, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another key

is the run game. It would help settle the line men early. Getting those guys moving forward and hitting will help them as opposed to dropping back to pass protect. The run game also opens up play action pass and that’s how we can get Evans and Owens the ball and slow down the pass rush.

I feel good about this game. I think Fitzpatrick knows what it takes to win and to put up a major offensive showing. Edwards is the starter and will be in the future, but Jim Kelly said it well in his article that if Fitz is getting it done, DJ should feel no pressure to put Edwards back. Anyway, that’s a discussion for another day.

If we can get Lynch going and possibly Fred, that would change the tenor of the game.

by Ono on Oct 31, 2009 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It should be possible to run against the Texans, if the line can supply the blocking, and I completely agree that that will be a key to a possible upset. The fact is that this young o-line DID do a good job of run-blocking in the first few games of the season, but since then everything seems to have fallen apart on running plays. Is that because opponents are stacking the box, or because Marshawn remains unable to hit the holes fast enough, or both? I’m not sure, but I wonder if it would make sense to give Fred Jackson the majority of the carries tomorrow so that he has a chance to get into a rhythm with the line and see if that makes a difference.

by Macktruck on Oct 31, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We haven’t given up much at all on the ground through the last 4 games. We stopped Gore and Benson in back to back weeks. In those 4 games we have given up something like 250 yards total. Our DTs aren’t great agaisnst the run, but our linebackers have been stellar, and M Williams is as good against the run as he is against the pass.
That said, I have a lot of respect for the young guys you have playing in the middle, and for Lynch and Jackson.

by nolander on Oct 31, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thing is..

Fitz isn’t getting it done though, other than avoiding mistakes. The D has gotten it done the past 2 games.

I’m not sure the run game can get it done. The OL has been very poor of late opening holes….

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Oct 31, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thats a definite. While our QB situation is in disarray, and the regression of trent after week 2 was as apparent as it was mind-numbing; if Trent can come back and knock off some of the badness and indecision and start leading this team, his superior talent to that of Fitzpatrick’s will show through. For the sake of his career, especially here in Buffalo, he will have to.
Fitzpatrick however has been subject to a collapsing line ruining his footwork. He isn’t Roethlisberger and can throw with his body tangled up. He needs solid footing…. but until our O line decides to step up to the challenge, the inaccuracy will continue and soon enough turnovers will come as a result

Good Luck With Your Firings Mr. Wilson….Go Bills!

by killascript on Oct 31, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can we say at this point that Trent has “superior talent” to Fitzpatrick? Remember that Trent has to have his receivers come to a complete stop when they are going across the field before he will throw to him, while Fitz has shown that he is very good at leading guys who are running slants and other crossing patterns. Fitz also can throw with laser-like strength on those passes, really zipping it into the chest of his target in a way we have never seen from Trent. His deep pass to Evans last week was also a thing of beauty.

Trent does seem more consistent than Fitz, but then Fitz has played in less than two games so far and did not have the benefit of working with the starters during the offseason the way Trent did. And while Fitz tends to make more wild throws, that’s also because he is willing to take more chances.

I’m NOT saying I am convinced that Fitz is the better QB. Rather, I’m saying it is too early to make that judgment. At a minimum, wait until we see how he does tomorrow. There’s no need to rush to any conclusions on this question.

by Macktruck on Oct 31, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fitz also can throw with laser-like strength

There is nothing laser-like about Fitzpatrick’s passes that I have seen. Judging by what I have seen talent-wise in terms of how each QB throws the ball physically, Trent has the superior physical talent. I hope Trent takes a cue from Fitzpatrick, as Fitzpatrick seems to be more ballsy. Combine the two, and you have a better QB. If trent realizes to win in this league you have to take chances, this team and us fans, will be better for it

Good Luck With Your Firings Mr. Wilson….Go Bills!

by killascript on Oct 31, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about the two TD passes he threw to Lee Evans the past two weeks? If those weren’t “laser-like” I don’t know what the term means. And I can’t recall Trent ever lofting the ball a full fifty yards in the air as Fitz did at Carolina and having it come down right on the receiver’s hands. Maybe I was just dreaming it, but if not then those three passes clearly demonstrate excellent arm strength.

by Macktruck on Oct 31, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trent tossed a bomb to TO, hit him in the hands and TO dropped it…but I digress. Look, I am not downplaying Fitz’s overall ability and his knack for knowing who to throw to, even if his passing percentage is pretty low, but selective memory does not convince me that Fitzpatrick has a better arm, and better physical tools than Edwards.
Fitz has made some plays, and I want him to do well, but I am just saying I like Trent’s ability more….
prove me wrong I say… prove me wrong. BUt even if we win on Sunday, and Fitz plays well… I think you put Edwards in after the bye and give him a half to prove it is his job. Then I say you ride with 14. Let the best man play, but I want to see Edwards work out of the huddle first.. he was looking very good against the Jets before they ripped his head off… getting the ball out quick, for 8 ypa

Good Luck With Your Firings Mr. Wilson….Go Bills!

by killascript on Oct 31, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, it looks like we are actually pretty close on this. As I said above I’m not arguing that Fitz is better than Trent. But I’m saying that all these people who have written him off as a permanent back-up and seventh rounder ought to wait a while and see how this plays out between the two of them. Fitz hasn’t had that many starts in his NFL career and at times has done some pretty cool stuff out there, but there is also the completion percentage, the periodic wild throws, etc. that are worrisome. As for whether Trent should come back after the bye, that depends on the Houston game. If Fitz has a hot hand and winning momentum, how can you not start him? On the other hand, if Fitz is so-so and inconsistent then Trent should certainly return and give us a chance to see how he does without the burden of the no-huddle.

by Macktruck on Oct 31, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if Fitz hits 60% and is hitting WRs all over the place Sunday… I want him to start… if Alex smith can come back years later after being benched (we’ll see if it continues… and it was against the texans) than Trent can too if Fitz unseats him.

JUST WINN BABY!

Good Luck With Your Firings Mr. Wilson….Go Bills!

by killascript on Nov 1, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you.

by Macktruck on Nov 1, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus the fact that the Texans run D has been looking awfully impressive the last few weeks.

First our pleasures die - and then Our hopes, and then our fears - and when These are dead, the debt is due, Dust claims dust - and we die too.

by Pennywise on Oct 31, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Worse than

not opening up holes. The O line allows defensive penetration which stops the play before it gets started. Meredith and Hang are very shakey.

by jpheff on Oct 31, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Texans receiving catches and yards

Rather than overall catches and yards, since they don’t have the same number of wins and losses, I think it makes more sense to look at catches per game and receiving yards per game.

Losses:
Johnson, 5.3 catches, 74 yards
Daniels, 5.7 catches, 58.7 yards

Wins:
Johnson, 5.5 catches, 103 yards
Daniels, 5.5 catches, 80.3 yards

To me, it looks like they’re catching the ball with basically the same frequency, but gaining more yardage. I’m not sure offhand if that’s because they are going for longer routes, or if it’s YAC. Either way, I think the solution is for the Bills’ secondary to try to keep Johnson and Daniels in front of them at all times. Take away the long ball. I guess that’s similar to what Kurupt wrote, maybe a little more fleshed out?

by gabefarkas on Oct 31, 2009 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, that was what I was getting at

I just didn’t include the per game averages. I probably should have, so thanks for putting them here.

Basically, I was trying to say that the Bills D needs to limit the big plays out of those guys. That’ll also help keep the game close and ugly….

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Oct 31, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

O-line has been a huge issue all season long, as they’re just bad in pass-protection and average run-blocking. Hangartner isn’t doing much nor are the two rookies; Bell is making a ton of mistakes along with Meredith and Scott. I sincerely expect this to be a game, where we get crushed. The Texans offense is fantastic and their defense is better than they’re getting credit for; our offense is horribly inconsistent and our defense, albeit terrific in terms of getting turnovers, is just disastrous against the run. Our pass-rush has been very mediocre the last few weeks, and that won’t cut it against a QB like Matt Schaub, who’s playing like a top 5 QB in this league.

by BillsfanfromDenmark on Oct 31, 2009 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If you read Ron’s careful breakdown of the o-line play you will find that Bell is not making “a ton of mistakes.” He is making mistakes, but not significantly more than anyone else on the o-line. Against Carolina Bell graded out as our best run-blocker and as average on pass-blocking. Your point about the RT’s — Scott and Meredith — is more accurate.

by Macktruck on Oct 31, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A lot of "ifs"

If the O-line takes a step forward, the defense plays the way it has been, and special teams dominate we have a chance. The offense will have to act like a offense worthy of the NFL though and take some pressure off of the defense. Van Pelt will have to call easy running plays that get 3-4 yards, and high percentage pass plays, mix in a screen or two, an end around, and a gadget play to keep them off guard, and even through in some “wild cat” type plays. Our offense is far too predictable.

by Pietro Sirianni on Oct 31, 2009 11:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

TO

TO may appear “washed up” but he remains a key part of the offense. I cant’ see Evans getting single coverage without TO drawing attention. TO must get his share of throws for the offense, the running game included, to work. We need a tight end who can catch, too — desperately. Fine or Stupar, well, don’t threaten a D too much. Might we see more plays with both Jackson and Lynch, one playing more like a TE?

by Sixteenthback on Oct 31, 2009 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs