Bills/Texans: Final Predictions with Battle Red Blog

by Brian Galliford on Oct 31, 2009 1:00 PM EDT in News Comment 30 comments

It's Saturday, which means that it's prediction day here at Buffalo Rumblings. I'm on something of a roll of late. I started off 4-0 picking Buffalo Bills games this season. Then I made the mistake of picking them to beat Cleveland. 4-1. I've picked against them since, and when I've picked against them, the Bills are undefeated this season. Sensing a pattern, you're probably aware that there is now a severe lack of suspense to this weekly post as I continue to play the superstition angle. The 4-3 Houston Texans are coming to town, and with any luck, the Bills will hit their bye at .500 after a 1-4 start.

At any rate, predictions must be made. Tim and Jake from Battle Red Blog are here to drop his prediction. My prediction joins theirs after the jump, and yours, as usual, are welcome in the comments section.

Tim's prediction is below:

The Bills are a scrappy squad with some real talent, especially in the secondary and at running back. The problem, as I see it, is that they're not equipped to match the Texans score for score. Barring Schaub and/or Slaton handing the Bills the ball back, this is a game the Texans should win. As I noted above, I'm feeling unnaturally good about the turnover situation right now, so I'm backing the good guys, even on the road. Texans 27, Bills 17

Jake's prediction:

The Bills are a scrappy team that can't be overlooked just because the Texans play the Colts in a week, which is a possibility. As with every week, the final results depend greatly on which Texan team shows up. Sure Buffalo is starting their backup quarterback, but the Texans secondary made the 49ers backup look like a Pro Bowler instead of a bad first overall pick last week.

If the Texans defense plays as well against the BIlls' double headed monster of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson as they have against the previous four opponents, I just don't see Ryan Fitzpatrick keeping up with Matt Schaub and the rest of the Texans offense. I do, however, think that the odds makers knew what they were doing when they thought this game would be as close as three points. Texans 30, Bills 24

And here's my prediction:

Tim's right - the Bills are scrappy. Unfortunately, they're not particularly scrappy at home, where they've lost 7 of their past 8 games - so there goes that home-field advantage. As they do in any given week, they have a real chance of pulling another upset. But at some point, teams are going to figure out that the easiest way to beat the Bills is to let them beat themselves. Buffalo has been gift-wrapped two straight victories. Houston won't grant them that honor, as Matt Schaub is playing the most efficient football of his life, and Gary Kubiak will stress ball security more than anything else. The rest will take care of itself. Texans 28, Bills 13

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19-17 Buffalo?

A touchdown to Lee Evans and four field goals from Rian Lindell – two off of turnovers – will be just enough. I think the wind will be a bigger problem for Schaub than many expect. We have an opportunitistic defense and the wind will cause Schaubs throws to drift into the secondary’s hands. I think Steve Slaton rushes for near 100 with a TD with a second Texans TD going to Owen Daniels in the red zone.

The no huddle is gone, please sign tackles Runyan, Jones or Walker

by poz on Oct 31, 2009 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

also want to add

that despite how the wind will negatively affect Schaub, Kubiak will stick to the ground to try and take advantage of our running D and that will keep the game a lower scoring affair – the type of games the Bills can beat opponents at.

The no huddle is gone, please sign tackles Runyan, Jones or Walker

by poz on Oct 31, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The wind suppose to be like as bad as it was against NO up there? Id feel much better about our chances if Texans will have to beat us with their running game.

First our pleasures die - and then Our hopes, and then our fears - and when These are dead, the debt is due, Dust claims dust - and we die too.

by Pennywise on Oct 31, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It depends on how well and how often we are able to run screens in addition to running if the wind is a big factor. We have devastated teams with our screens lately.

by nolander on Oct 31, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Texans 24-13

We don’t have enough offense…

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Oct 31, 2009 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Have you picked the Bills to lose every week?

Founding member of the Dick Jauron Fan Club.

by taskersd on Oct 31, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

I picked them to beat TB, Miami and Cleveland. I know you enjoy jumping on my comments if they show any bit of perceived negativity, so I apologize for picking against them when I feel they are playing a better team. I’m going to continue picking against them, especially when they keep winning.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Oct 31, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hang in there, K. It takes me half a day to find the negativity in your posts. Chicken Little is faster.

by LeClaireBill on Oct 31, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I reed all of your comments.

I like your insight the most out of all the Rumblings authors I just feel bad about how down and out Bills football gets you. I wish you could fell that faint bit of optimism I feel every week.

Founding member of the Dick Jauron Fan Club.

by taskersd on Nov 2, 2009 9:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Haha

I am optimistic ever so slightly. I like to call it as I see it, and lately that means it’s quite bad…but it doesn’t mean I don’t have any hope.

Bills football doesn’t get me down and out, at all. I’m fully apathetic about this team right now. It’s not worth getting worked up after games. I’m not sure how you take my comments and read that they are so much more negative and out there compared to some on this site. And hey, Brian’s as positive as they come, but he’s picked against the Bills more than I have this year….

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Nov 2, 2009 10:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A close game

I’m not sure that the wind will be that big a factor. The weather prediction is calling for moderate wind speeds, and Schaub has a very strong arm. My biggest concern is Owen Daniels. If by some miracle Bryan Scott is playing I would be much less worried — he can shut down the best TE’s. But he probably won’t be on the field, and there are a lot of other key personnel missing because of injuries as well.

Nonetheless, we have a terrific secondary, a defense that has in general been rising to the occasion, and a QB who so far has shown he knows how to rally his team to a victory. The o-line is always a big question mark, but the more they play together the better they are going to be, and we may see that as soon as this week, aided by the fact that it is a home game.

I don’t know what the final score will be, but when the dust has settled my bet is that the two teams will be separated by three points or less. Whenever that happens, it can go either way.

by Macktruck on Oct 31, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Schaub's Arm

I’d have to respectfully disagree with your description of Schaub’s arm, Mack. It’s not that strong. It’s strong enough, for sure, and a great fit for the Texans’ offense. But Schaub does not have a cannon.

If the wind is howling, Schaub’s not the type of QB who’s going to be able to knife it.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Oct 31, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My recollection was that a strong arm was one of his main assets, but I hope you are right. The good thing is that we will have a QB in Fitz who has shown the past two weeks that he can “knife it” when necessary.

by Macktruck on Oct 31, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd also say its strong enough

But accuracy is really is strong suit. He throws some beautiful passes even if they lack a little zip.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Oct 31, 2009 6:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly. I really wanted the Bills to draft him, and he would definitely have been available to us since he lasted until the third round, but that total dimwit Donahoe traded up for Losman instead.

by Macktruck on Oct 31, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Schaub has a very strong arm.

If there is a strong wind, Schaub will have difficulties. He is an accurate passer, but does not have a cannon for an arm.

You are banned from Music City Miracles.
Happy Now Tits?
You are banned from Blogging The Boys.

by CFHTim on Oct 31, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Prediction in the Fantasy of my mind

  Schaub (22-31, 221 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT), Johnson (94, 1 TD) and Daniels (65) are relatively contained. Slayton doesn’t kill us completely (18 for 110 yds and a TD).
  The Defense stands up again: 5 sacks and multiple hits (2 for Schoebel and Maybin’s first and 2nd NFL sack). 1 INT for Byrd, and a FF when Poz crushes Slayton on a pitch.
  Offense shows up. Fitzy is 24-30, 310 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT) T.O. (87 yds, 1 TD), Lee Evans (132 yds, 1 TD), Marshawn (120 total yards, 1 TD), Freddy (110 total yds, 0 TD).
  “The Cagey Dick Jaron” shows emotion. Ralph isn’t embarrassed and gets his ring. The fans don’t boo. Everyone goes home happy, holding hands, and singing “Kumbaya.”
FINAL: Bills 27, Texans 20
  Sal the evil sportswriter actually complements the Bills on a good game.
  Its my Fantasy…. let me live it until tomorrow.
  Don’t give Larry Johnson any candy tonight if he comes knocking on your door. Remember, he makes more money than we do.
HAPPY HALLOWEEN!!!

"A failure becomes just one time at bat if you refuse to let it defeat you." Marv Levy.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Oct 31, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fitzy is 24-30, 310 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT

In 2005 he did burn them for 310 yards and 3 touchdowns in his best game ever, but then again it was along time ago.

First our pleasures die - and then Our hopes, and then our fears - and when These are dead, the debt is due, Dust claims dust - and we die too.

by Pennywise on Oct 31, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He came in in the 2nd quarter too in that game. Ugh.

by nolander on Oct 31, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Texans 24 Bills 6

You just can not keep getting dominated and win. Eventually it has to catch up with you. Texans have see 7 quarters of Fitz with this makeshift O line and will scheme him well. Missing Kyle Williams will hurt. Just too much to overcome. Hope I am wrong.

by jpheff on Oct 31, 2009 4:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Im with Brian......when I think they're gonna lose and pick it to be that way......they win.....

So having said that……

Texans – 24
Bills – 13

"Maybe Fitzy just has a horsehoe up his ass winning the two games he has, but you don’t bench someone who has a horseshoe up his ass." - Applsoss

by norcaliangelsfan on Oct 31, 2009 4:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bills 35 Texans 24

I think Fitz connects on consecutive big plays with Evans and Owens. The defense holds early, keep Houston scoreless or giving up only field goals. Lynch has break out game with big chunks and not the 4 yard grind it out. Finally with Schaub pressing, he gives up big interceptions.

by Ono on Oct 31, 2009 4:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Can the Bills beat a good team that does not self destruct?

The Bills are out gunned on Offense, Defense, and on the sidelines. Unless the Texans do their best Jets impression, we are doomed. The bubble bursts on Sunday. Texans 24 Bills 17

"Are the Bills better than we think, or do they just suck the life out of most teams they play and drag them down to their level? - oompaloompa

by Joe P. on Oct 31, 2009 7:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Texans are capable of self destructing at a moments notice......

Hopefully they are getting past that this year, but as fans we all know that at any seond, the Texans can fall apart.

"An open mind is like a fortress with it's gates unbarred and unguarded."

The ROSENFAIL : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAKAKE-uq-8&feature=related

by TexansForever on Oct 31, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ROSENCOPTER

by nolander on Oct 31, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have an animated GIF of the Sagecopter, it’s always good for a laugh when I’m feeling down.

Bills fan? In Colorado? It's more likely than you think.

by UZ on Nov 1, 2009 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see nothing but ugly tomorrow, and I’m an optimist. Let me put it this way…I gave away my ticket for tomorrow.

by krytime on Oct 31, 2009 10:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We should really be hoping for an ugly game...

Those are the only ones we’re built to win. If we have another textbook day as we did last week on special teams, we’ll have a chance to garner a victory. I love how all the crappy to mediocre teams’ head bloggers come in here with such resolute confidence (Texans guys being the exception) and predicting blowouts. The worst was the people that predicted a blowout from a Jake Delhomme-led offense. It’s just preposterous. Houston is certainly a better team than Carolina, but I’m sorry they still fall into that mediocre mush in the middle of the pack in the AFC hovering around 8-8 every year until they prove otherwise. I think we can contain their run game and make them throw in the stiff winds. They’re not a good road team and we’re not a good home team as Brian so aptly mentioned. Something’s gotta give.

by live6453 on Oct 31, 2009 10:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bills 19 – Texans 17

I don’t know why but I have a good feeling about tomorrow, like it’s going to be a scrapfest. And that’s the games the Bills win… the scrapfests.

Bills fan? In Colorado? It's more likely than you think.

by UZ on Nov 1, 2009 1:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Texans @ Bills

Texans 41 Bills 24

The Bills defensive injuries and short comings finally catch up to them. Andre Johnson is the best receiver in Football and will have a big day. Bills O-line will have a misrable day today!!!

"If you don't have good habits you have bad habits there are no in between habits"

by Goose22 on Nov 1, 2009 10:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs