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Bills Fantasy Friday: Week 11 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em

It's been a rather eventful week, hasn't it? There's a new head coach, new starting quarterback and maybe some new hope for the future. Unfortunately, the Buffalo Bills' fantasy prospects are still quite dim for the rest of the season. The Bills head down to northern Florida to take on the 5-4 Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday. It'll be another difficult matchup for the Bills, especially for the run defense.

There aren't many fantasy players of significance for either side in this game, but we'll take a look at anyone who might have some value. Head on in after the jump for a review of all the individual fantasy players of note for Bills at Jaguars.

Star-divide

 

Quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Fitzpatrick was named the starting quarterback twice this week, by two different head coaches.  That's odd and probably caused a few winces out of many Bills fans this week, but not as cringe-worthy as Fitzpatrick's play on the field this year.  He's completing less than 50% of his passes at just 4.7 yards an attempt.  His quarterback rating checks in at 49.8, which is slightly better than JaMarcus Russell's 47.7.  Fitzpatrick has been that bad.  It's hard to believe this guy is believed to give the Bills a better chance of winning, but such is life in Buffalo.  Don't bother with him and don't bother keeping Trent Edwards anywhere near your roster either. Verdict: Sit 'Em

David Garrard - Garrard's had some good moments this year and overall his stats look pretty solid.  However, he's been an up and down fantasy option, but has could be a borderline starter this week.  He's thrown a touchdown pass in just four games this season (same as Edwards), but has done a good job racking up yards as he's averaging 232 yards per game.  In league's where passing yards are weighed more heavily, Garrard has more value.  Look for him to continue his modest success this week.  Touchdowns could remain an iffy proposition, but he should be in line to reach his average yardage total.  He's a potential starter in deeper leagues and you could do a lot worse this week.  I'd rather go with someone else, though. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Running Backs
Marshawn Lynch
- Lynch continues to see his production decrease as the Bills offense continues to struggle.  For the fourth consecutive game, Lynch's rushing yardage was less than the prior game.  He finished with just 37 yards on 9 carries last and had a long carry of just 7 yards.  Simply put, he hasn't been a fantasy option this year.  He did add four receptions for 18 yards last week, but its hard to imagine him having much value behind the current Bills' offensive line.  He will remain a flex option at best and until he puts up some big numbers, I can't envision using him. Keep him on your bench and hope a change in mindset at the head coaching position might provide him more opportunities.  Verdict: Sit 'Em

Fred Jackson - Jackson was a little more involved last week against the Titans, but a good chunk of his production came late in the game when the score was out of hand.  The Bills got him involved in the passing game again (3 receptions for 23 yards) and he actually threw a touchdown pass out of a beautifully designed Wildcat play.  His value in the rushing game is quite limited at this point, so unless the Bills being using him more as a receiving again, he's probably not much of a flex option either. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Maurice Jones-Drew - If it wasn't for the spectacular Chris Johnson, MoJo would be the top scoring RB in most fantasy setups.  He's been excellent in his first go-round as the Jaguars every down back.  He leads the NFL in touchdowns with 12 through nine games, is fourth in the NFL with 860 yards rushing and has also added 32 receptions for 220 yards.  He's lived up to his status as the number two player taken in many fantasy drafts this year.  Expect it to continue against the terrible Bills run defense this week.  A week after Johnson racked up 232 total yards and a pair of touchdowns, Jones-Drew looks every bit capable of matching that.  Verdict: Start 'Em

Wide Receivers
Lee Evans
- Evans once again had a solid fantasy game last week posting 4 receptions for 50 yards and two first half touchdowns. Quietly, despite overall horrific numbers, Evans has been somewhat useful the past month putting up 222 receiving yards on 15 catches and 4 touchdowns the past four games.  I still can't recommend starting him at one of your WR spots, but he does look like he'll be a good flex option from time to time.  This week, against the Jaguars 26th ranked pass defense, is one of those weeks. Verdict: Start 'Em as a flex

Terrell Owens - Owens' 85 yards receiving last week were the most he's put up in a Bills uniform.  Is that a sign of things to come or just a fluke?  I think it's most definitely the former.  Last week was just the third times he's put up 50 or more receiving yards this season, and he still hasn't scored a touchdown through the air since week 2.  With Fitzpatrick back under center, expect Owens' struggles to continue. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Mike Sims-Walker - MS-W has been one of this fantasy season's top free agent additions.  He's been one of the biggest surprises so far this season, and looks to continue his success this week against the mediocre Bills' pass defense.  Sims-Walker has caught a touchdown in 4 of his 7 games, and has six or more catches in 5 of those games.  For the most part, he's been a consistent performer and David Garrard's favorite receiver.  He's an every week starter and has played like a borderline #1 WR all season.  Don't take him out now. Verdict: Start 'Em

Torry Holt - The veteran receiver hasn't scored a touchdown all season, but has put up a solid 35 receptions for 485 yards thus far.  Unless Sims-Walker gets hurt or suspended again, Holt doesn't have much value in fantasy lineups.  Keep him on the bench. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Tight Ends
Shawn Nelson
- With Derek Fine placed in Injury Reserve earlier this week, Nelson assumes the starting tight end role a lot sooner than many Bills fans expected.  He hasn't exactly earned that role, but has a chance to prove himself over the final seven games of the season.  Expect him to get more and more comfortable every week and with his athleticism, he could bust a big play at any time.  Wait to see it first before you even consider adding Nelson to your bench.  Verdict: Sit 'Em

Marcedes Lewis - The former first round pick has really disappeared after a solid first month of the season. He's a guy that routinely flashes big time ability, but never seems to be able to put it together.  Unless you are desperate, look elsewhere. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Kickers
Rian Lindell
- Lindell continues to have a quietly efficient season. Too bad that doesn't mean much for fantasy owners. Look elsewhere for your kicker, especially to a good offensive team.  Verdict: Sit 'Em

Jose Scobee - Scobee has hit just 10 of 16 field goals this year and has scored seven points less than Lindell so far this year.  That should tell you all you need to know about whether to go with him this week. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Defense/Special Teams
Buffalo D/ST
- Jairus Byrd had another interception last week and he's about the only thing good about this unit at this point. With a poor pass rush and weak return units, it's hard to imagine even using a bench spot on these guys. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Jacksonville D/ST - Another very poor fantasy option, the Jaguars defense has been pretty ineffective totaling just 7 interceptions, 6 fumble recoveries and just 8 sacks.  Even against the bumbling Bills offense, they aren't worth the pickup.  Verdict: Sit 'Em

Sleepers
Buffalo
- This space will remain vacant for the Bills until a guy outside of Jackson or Evans puts up some numbers.  There aren't many options here for Buffalo.

Jacksonville - Mike Thomas (WR): Thomas is the Jaguars 3rd WR and actually has 23 receptions on the year for 220 yards, while adding another 70 yards rushing.  He's the primary punt returner and has returned kicks this year in addition to his WR duties.  For teams that pick up fantasy points for return yards, Thomas is a deep option. 

*****

There are only a few weeks left of most fantasy regular seasons, so this week is of utmost importance. Keep rolling with your studs (MoJo, Sims-Walker) and consider your matchups for the other players in this game.  With the bye weeks past us, it's unlikely you'll be using any of the other players in this game, but take a look at Evans, Jackson, Lynch, Garrard and Holt if you must.  As always, good luck and use the comments section to discuss your fantasy issues.  Go Bills!

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I got some bad news last week when I saw Turner was hurt. I just traded Thomas Jones and Roddy White for him and he should be out for a few weeks but I did win thanks to Wayne and Sidney Rice.

So with only one good running back, I have a stable of very ok ones, which one should I start opposite LT:

Beanie Wells vs STL
Maroney vs NYJ
Snelling vs NYG

by dragonwag0n on Nov 20, 2009 8:36 AM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

Beanie

"I don't know how to explain it but we seem to find eachother on the ice and make things happen... Yeah. Pass, shoot, score... Yeah. Pass.. Shoot.. And score."

by bflo on Nov 20, 2009 8:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I 2nd that.

They are hard to play but not hard to beat.
- Mike Lombardi on the Buffalo Bills

by Sluss88 on Nov 20, 2009 9:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I get to watch the Card games every week and Beanie is a beast carrying the ball, you see more guys getting knocked over then tackling – the reason why his touches are low is cause he had a bad fumbling game early in the season.
He has been getting more touches ever since so only expect that to improve – also he is taking some reps from Hightower (their other back) in pass protection which means he will get more receptions.
I would not be suprised if by the end of the season he is one of the highest scoring RB.

I was born in Buffalo, and NO, it's not a suburb of New York City

by Ghetts on Nov 20, 2009 10:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thanks, im glad i picked him up and dropped westbrook then.

by dragonwag0n on Nov 20, 2009 2:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Ricky Williams got me 34 points last night. Good pickup, huh K? :-)

Too bas I didn’t start Steve Smith last night. I should have benched Brandon Marshall. Oh well.

I have a running back problem. With Michael Turner questionable I’d rather have someone else ready to go if he doesn’t. Do I start Turner, Ryan Moats, Steve Slayton, or pick up a guy like Justin Forsett from the Seahawks or Cadillac Williams from the Bucs? Seattle is playing the Vikings so it’s probably not a good idea for one week. The Bucs get New Orleans so they could be throwing to catch up. I could even go Kevin Faulk against the Jets. Any help with the RB thing would be helpful guys.

And I started Lee Evans just because I think Fitzy will try to hit him a bunch of times.

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell

by MattRichWarren on Nov 20, 2009 8:56 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I can’t win in my yahoo league. I lost Owen Daniels, Leon Washington, and Ronnie Brown for the season. Chris Cooley too, from the sounds of it. Ricky’s performance last night has put me in a huge hole (-37 points).

You should definitely pick up Justin Forsett. He ran wild on the Cardinals last week, and they’re not pushovers against the run.

Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.

by TheAfghanTwilight on Nov 20, 2009 9:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agree on Forsett

He’ll get a bunch of catches too

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Nov 20, 2009 9:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

But I can’t start him this week against the Vikes can I?

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell

by MattRichWarren on Nov 20, 2009 10:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure you can. He’s better than any of your other RB options. Turner won’t play (Snelling might be your 2nd-best choice). Moats and Slayton are tough calls.

Jamaal Charles is a great pickup if available.

Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.

by TheAfghanTwilight on Nov 20, 2009 10:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The vikes haven’t been amazing in run defense – especially with Winfield out – he plays a crucial part on controlling the edge for run plays. I don’t know if Winfield is playing this game, but even if he is, he is definitely not 100%.
Also the Seahawks are terrible in pass protecting and are going to try and run it often to relieve pressure.

I was born in Buffalo, and NO, it's not a suburb of New York City

by Ghetts on Nov 20, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

K. I cut Moats, picked up Forsett, and he’s starting this week.

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell

by MattRichWarren on Nov 20, 2009 9:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I snatched him up in our Premiere league. =).

Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.

by TheAfghanTwilight on Nov 20, 2009 10:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Kevin Faulk wouldnt be a bad start either. WIth them playing the jets they are going to want to get back to what they do. And that involves Faulk. Cant garnuntee scores obviously but he could easily go for 2 TD’s any week.

"I don't know how to explain it but we seem to find eachother on the ice and make things happen... Yeah. Pass, shoot, score... Yeah. Pass.. Shoot.. And score."

by bflo on Nov 20, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Kevin Faulk has scored 2 TDs in a game 3 times in his 11 year career. In no way would I trust any of the Pats’ running backs.

Bill Polian and AJ Smith are gone, so there's not the usual balance between "sane" and "others." Ralph has mentally checked out since 1994. It's a very dangerous time. The coalition for reason is extremely weak.

by thatguy34 on Nov 20, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Just sat Brandon Marshall for Sims-Walker. I’ll change that if Orton somehow plays. Thoughts?

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell

by MattRichWarren on Nov 20, 2009 8:58 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

too bad you can’t start marshall for the first 3 quarters and then MSW for the 4th quarter, where the jags will break a 0-0 tie and win by 28.

But yea, I’d go with MSW

by dragonwag0n on Nov 20, 2009 9:13 AM EST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

WildFred!

I picked up F Jax last week in a return yds. league, he had 31pts last week. Hopefully the WildFred plays keep increasing!

They are hard to play but not hard to beat.
- Mike Lombardi on the Buffalo Bills

by Sluss88 on Nov 20, 2009 9:23 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Last week

was yet another week I sat Lee Evans. WTF! Play him – he stinks. Sit him – he goes off.

Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.

by TheAfghanTwilight on Nov 20, 2009 9:27 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I’m with you there.

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell

by MattRichWarren on Nov 20, 2009 10:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m on the fence in our league: Evans or Forsett as a flex. My WR options are very uninspiring, especially now that defenses are committing safety help against Miles Austin.

Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.

by TheAfghanTwilight on Nov 20, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I am starting both Evans and Forsett. :-)

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell

by MattRichWarren on Nov 20, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I called for him to have a good game last week (you can check it in last weeks fantasy!).
And Evans will have another good game this week – well if 50-75yrds and a TD is good?

I was born in Buffalo, and NO, it's not a suburb of New York City

by Ghetts on Nov 20, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

With the WRs I have, where he’s a teammate, that’s great production.

Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.

by TheAfghanTwilight on Nov 20, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Then please god keep sitting him. We need some good news on offense.

Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.

by WhyBillsWhy on Nov 20, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

tough call:

Joseph Addai vs Ravens D – or – Jamal Lewis vs Lions crappy D – or – a beat up Cedric Benson vs Raiders D?

No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.

by sireric on Nov 20, 2009 10:58 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Cedric Benson isn’t playing, I thought? I’d try and pick up his no-name backup. LJ is a thought as well – he knows the Raiders, afterall. Reports have him listed as the 4th back, but I don’t buy that one bit.

I’d probably start Addai, he’s been getting the looks from Manning in the passing game again, and that team just scores at will. Jamal Lewis shouldn’t even be on your radar, and i’ve yet to see an elite RB truly go off on the Lions defense, so I don’t like Lewis’ chances as a has-been.

Seriously look to pick up Benson’s backup, Forsett, Snelling, or LJ.

Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.

by TheAfghanTwilight on Nov 20, 2009 11:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

disclaimer: everything I said above (unintentionally) goes against what Matthew Berry thinks about all those guys.

Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.

by TheAfghanTwilight on Nov 20, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Looked it up

Benson is still listed as questionable but he didn’t practice Friday and probably won’t even make the trip. Bernard Scott will start in his place.

No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.

by sireric on Nov 20, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’d really gamble on Scott if I were you, even over Addai. If he’s available, pick him up, even for 1 week. LJ will get his chance there, you don’t sign a former stud RB to sit at #4. He should be #2 (yes, fitting), in my mind.

Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.

by TheAfghanTwilight on Nov 20, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thats a good reason to do it. 99% of what he says is trash. He makes jim cramer look like a legitimate fortune teller.

by quantumuprising on Nov 20, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You can’t fault him, though. All these fantasy experts are making a career on their ability to convince people that their magic 8 ball is correct.

Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.

by TheAfghanTwilight on Nov 20, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Addai

And I don’t think its close. He seems to score every week and gets a ton of work in the passing game. The Ravens D isn’t all that great this year, either.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Nov 20, 2009 1:55 PM EST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Okay another one:

which two?

LT vs Denver
Ryan Grant vs SF
Ahmad Bradshaw vs Atlanta
Thomas Jones vs Patsies.

I’m leaning towards LT and Grant, but Bradshaw has me thinking.

No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.

by sireric on Nov 20, 2009 12:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

LT is finally heating up, so yes. I’d probably start Thomas Jones over Grant. Yes, Grant has a decent matcup (see: poor-ish run D by the ’Niners), but Thomas Jones is a stud and they play the Pats well.

Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.

by TheAfghanTwilight on Nov 20, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Def Jones and LT, no question.

by dragonwag0n on Nov 20, 2009 12:58 PM EST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

what about this one:

Shaincoe vs SEA
or
Winslow vs NO

by dragonwag0n on Nov 20, 2009 2:13 PM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

I start Winslow every week. He’s been a stud.

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell

by MattRichWarren on Nov 20, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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