How many pieces do we need? Examining the 07-08 Dolphins transition for clues.
by JPH on Nov 30, 2009 11:54 PM EST
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PrintThere was a discussion recently about Terrell Owens, and whether or not the Bills should try to bring him back. For the most part, it seemed like the consensus was that, since the Bills had too many holes to fill (pre-emptive TWSS), they shouldn't bother giving TO the multi-year contract and millions he will likely demand when they could spend that on someone who...you know...isn't 36.
This got me wondering. I've always fallen on the "we need too many pieces" side of things, but I'm also usually wrong. So I decided to look at the most notable recent turnaround, the Miami Dolphins. The team went from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008 after blowing up their front office and coaching staff. Do we have more pieces in place than they did? How many pieces can a team possibly acquire in only 1 offseason?
Half-assed analysis after the jump.
Let's start with a few disclaimers:
- No, I do not think this team is as bad as the 2007 Miami Dolphins.
- As excited as we might be about Shanahan/Holmgren/Fewell/Galliford, there is no way our front office and coaching could possibly improve more than the jump from Cam Cameron and Randy Mueller to Tony Sparano and Jeff Ireland, with one of the best football minds in the history of the league, Bill Parcells, lurking in the background. Quite simply, Jauron wasn’t as bad as Cameron, and I don't think anyone who's available is in Parcells's league as a talent evaluator.
- In the chart below, Jake Long is referred to as Jason Long. It's my nickname for him. Or I got it wrong when I was making the chart.
- Three players were acquired in two separate trades
- Three players were acquired in Free Agency
- Two players were promoted from reserve roles
- Two players were drafted in the 2008 draft
- Two players returned from injury.
For the Bills to be good next year, the Off-season can look like 1 of two scenarios:
Scenario 1 (In which our players are better than I think, and we have some sort of genie-trainer)
We sign a FA quarterback (hey chad!)
We resign Terrell Owens
LT Demetrius Bell develops into a competent LT over the next 9 months
C Geoff Hangartner is the weak link in the line (this is totally doable. Example: the 16 games Ndukwe started at G for the Phins in 08 are the only ones he's started in his career, and he's currently a backup for the Chiefs.)
RG Eric Wood returns next year and stays healthy
RT Brad Butler returns next year, stays healthy, and plays the way he was playing this year before getting hurt.
LE Aaron Maybin develops into a very, very good passrusher and splits time with Kelsay, who plays rushing downs. Together they make a good defensive end.
The Bills sign or draft the best either SLB or MLB available, and then Posluzny develops into a competent player at whichever of those spots is left empty. Ellison is a reserve.
Scenario 2 (In which our guys are so bad/unhealthy that Ralph has to sell a kidney to pay for the new guys we need):
Sign a FA quarterback
Draft/Sign a #2 WR (sorry guys, I don't think Steve Johnson or James Hardy is a #2 by next year)
Draft/Sign a LT
Draft/Sign a C
Draft/Sign a RG
Draft/Sign a RT
Draft/Sign a LE
Draft/Sign a SLB
Draft/Sign a MLB
Here's what I think the reality will be: Wood and Butler won't be healthy or effective next year, Terrell Owens will walk, Kelsay and Maybin will split time, and the Bills will bring in a SLB. I don't think that'll be enough, because it'll require serious development from Maybin, Poz and Bell, and I don't expect that. Scenario 2 is pretty much impossible, but, if we don't get healthy and if our youngsters don't develop, that'll be what's necessary for us to compete.
Conclusion
So, to go back to the original question: How many pieces do the Bills need? Anywhere between 2 and 9. If the answer is 9, the Bills aren't going to compete next year. Even in the amazing offseason the Phins had, they only added 8 starters. But if the answer is closer to 2, and I'm not 100% convinced that it isn't, then we can talk.
What do you guys think? Do we need 2 or 3 players, or is it more like 8 or 9?
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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This was all organized with great thoughts, but I just find that you guys would be better off without
Terrell Owens, he had an awful start to the beginning of the year. Two good games doesn’t erase the fact he’s 35 and only getting older. He isn’t a long term fix, or in reality all that much for your team.
Don't question my fandominium.
"the notorious D.I.B."- samdaman
Nicky forever.
by dolphinsinbuffalo on Nov 30, 2009 11:58 PM EST reply actions
TO is not your average 35 year old.
He’s got the body of someone 22 years old, work habits that put even Jerry Rice to shame and outside of one season and some ticky tack injuries has been healthy his entire career. Despite having an awful start to the season, which was far from his solely his fault (save for the stone hands), he’s still going to put up 900-1000 yards and 5-8 TDs. He’s got a good 2-3 years of production left in him and if he actually has a QB throwing to him he’ll be right back at it.
by twoeightnine on Dec 1, 2009 12:35 AM EST up reply actions
work habits that put even Jerry Rice to shame
lol – yea no
Never put salt in your eyes
by J2 on Dec 1, 2009 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
TO works as hard as anyone in the league
It’s not something to laugh at….
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
i know that – but he doesn’t put Jerry Rices workouts to shame. Jerry was one of the hardest working players ever and even taught TO.
don’t be mocking Jerry Rice man – he’s the epitome of a hard working WR
Never put salt in your eyes
by J2 on Dec 1, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
2-3 isn't a re-build to a team. I bet the Bills don't even resign him this year.
Don't question my fandominium.
"the notorious D.I.B."- samdaman
Nicky forever.
by dolphinsinbuffalo on Dec 1, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
If we stay healthy.
Since Jauron has been here, the injuries have been unreal.
I think we must have set a record for players on IR for the last 4 years.
I can’t be sure what the problem is, the players, the training staff, or the turf at The Ralph, but something is wrong, we shouldn’t have this many players on IR.
There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.
If we continue to have injuries like the past 4 years.
WE ARE GOING NOWHERE!
We need to figure out what is causing all the injuries.
There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.
by The Buffalo Kid on Dec 1, 2009 1:08 AM EST up reply actions
No, we haven't.
Someone posted a link last week that said that we were in the 5-10 range for players on IR last year. The problem is you’re a Bills fan. You watch Bills games. You see the 7th string RT go down with a hangnail and think the team is cursed. But you don’t pay attention to other teams as closely.
Of course this year we are tied for lead in players on IR but even that is BS. There are 17 players currently on IR. Seven of those players never made it out of training camp and only one of those, DiGiorgio, would have definitely made the team. And C.J. Hawthorne was added without ever being off the practice squad.
If our player's keep getting injured.
We could need as many as 17 new starters who don’t get injured.
We are going nowhere until we get the injury problem fixed.
There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.
Buffalo Kid, are you at all worried about the injury problem?
:)
Jonathan Stupar won the Heisman…while playing in the NFL!
by JPH on Dec 1, 2009 2:15 AM EST up reply actions
Rec'd
Nice work with detailed analysis. I think the right number of new parts is down the middle of your number:
1. QB
2. LT/RT
3. G
4. MLB
5. DT
I echo your concern on the abilitiy of the injured lineman to recover. I do think that Johnson or Hardy can step up to the #2 receiver role if we can’t resign Owens.
Bills-fan-who-wants-a-GM
Why is everyone so eager to replace Poz? He’s the youngest of our starters and the only one not to go down with a season-ending injury.
I think it would look like this in terms of need:
1) QB
2) LT
3) OLB x 2
4) DE
5) DT (starter or backup)
6) G (backup)
7) MLB (backup)
This changes a bit if Wood doesn’t recover from injury the way we all hope, but it wouldn’t change much.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
Why is everyone so eager to replace Poz?
because he doesnt’ make plays and is mediocre
Never put salt in your eyes
by J2 on Dec 1, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd
He needs to be an OLB and we need to find ourselves a play making MLB (easier said than done… but still needs to happen)
"I don't know how to explain it but we seem to find eachother on the ice and make things happen... Yeah. Pass, shoot, score... Yeah. Pass.. Shoot.. And score."
But he’s young, with room to learn, and he’s far from the problem in that LB corps. The problems are Mitchell, who is generally inconsistent and over-pursues more than Poz does, and Ellison, who doesn’t have the athletic ability to be a starter in this league. Consequently, both of those players can’t play due to injury for the year. What I’m saying is, if you’ve got to replace your linebackers, start with the worst ones.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
I think Mitchell is better than Poz.
but, seeing as we haven’t seen him play in a while, I can’t really offer you any evidence. I guess my point is that something’s gotta give for this defense to be really good next year. Either Poz needs to get better fast, or they need to move him to what most people think of as his natural position, or they need to replace him.
Jonathan Stupar won the Heisman…while playing in the NFL!
by JPH on Dec 1, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
As others have said
injuries have been a huge knuckleball recently and in years past. This team struggles at saying healthy especially at key areas.
This space held in honor of Robert Royal known to his friends as "Sweet Cream Style Corn" March 11 2006- February 26, 2009
My list
1. Left Tackle
Bell has a ways to go developmentally and seems to attract nagging injuries. Both of those spell inconsistency at the LT position. Buffalo tried that this year and it really hasn’t worked out too well. While Buffalo doesn’t have the greatest of histories when it comes to draft LTs early in round 1 it’s time to try again….hopefully with a competent GM picking the best of the bunch instead of the most hyped guy.
Initial Preference: Draft LT in 1st round.
2. Right Tackle
I’m a Brad Butler fan who has no faith whatsoever in his ability to stay healthy. He’s missed, effectively, two complete seasons and parts of two other seasons. Buffalo could bring in a free agent for a reasonable amount of money. Buffalo could also slide Bell to RT and make Butler the backup. When Bell was out for a game or two Butler could fill in, hopefully without getting hurt himself.
Initial Preference: Sign Free Agent or switch Bell to RT.
3. Outside Linebacker
Ellison simply can’t continue to start by default. It’s high time that Buffalo invested a serious draft pick at the position. With Mitchell returning to at least average form and Poz hopefully not re-re-breaking his left arm. I can’t see Buffalo chasing a free agent, though that could change markedly when Buffalo hires Jauron’s replacement. Coaches tend to bring guys along with them from their former teams. Still, I’d like to see Buffalo draft an OLB.
Initial Preference: Draft OLB in 2nd or 3rd round
4. Guard
Hang has been an upgrade over Fowler/Preston but he’s not setting the world on fire at center. Bringing in a guard will allow Wood to slide to center. Again, Buffalo could go the free agency route but I think a guard would fit into the overall draft plan.
Initial Preference: Draft Guard in the 2nd or 3rd round
5. Defensive Tackle
With Stroud and Williams playing reasonably well I don’t presently see a need to find a new starter. However, with McCargo almost certainly getting the shoe Buffalo will need to bring in a rotational DT. Think Spencer Johnson like—not too expensive with some experience and versatility.
Initial Preference: Sign a free agent DT
6. Defensive End
With Schobel starting and Maybin likely to get more snaps next year it’s looking like a rotational guy. Yeah, I know—a really good DE would be a huge boost for the defense but Buffalo will need to use the draft picks to fix the line and OLB issues.
Initial Preference: Sign a free agent DE
7. Wide Receiver
Re-sign Owens. It may be easier said than done but the Owens Effect is clear—teams don’t load the box when he’s in the game because he makes them pay when they do. That alone makes him worth keeping. He’s said he’s open to another year in Buffalo. Make it happen.
Initial Preference: Re-sign TO
No doubt you’ll notice the lack of QB on my list. Well, there seems little point in taking a QB early in the draft only to see him ruined a la Joey Harrington or David Carr. The line simply isn’t good enough to allow a QB to develop successfully. Get the offensive line set and live with a game manager in 2010 and try to draft the stud QB with the top 12 draft pick in April 2011.
Of course we could make things more challenging, Lisa, but then the stupider students would be in here complaining, furrowing their brows in a vain attempt to understand the situation--Seymour Skinner
I like your thoughts, but
you are assuming Wood can play next year. So am I, but the possibility that we may need to replace Wood at least for a large part of next season is something to consider. And, I think we need to draft a QB in round 1 or 2. I agree we don’t start him. Given the fact we will have a new GM and HC, the Bills will never be in a better position to allow said QB to sit for a year without the tremendous pressure to play him immediately that is usually is present.
"Jets crash and burn as Fewell's Bills expode offensively " - So let it be written...so let it be done.
Buffalo can’t get a franchise LT and franchise QB in the same draft. Give me the LT first.
Of course we could make things more challenging, Lisa, but then the stupider students would be in here complaining, furrowing their brows in a vain attempt to understand the situation--Seymour Skinner
Tell that to Atlanta (Matt Ryan/Sam Baker) and Miami (Jake Long/Chad Henne).
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Dec 2, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
the Steelers took Roethlisberger and Max Starks in the same draft.
Cleveland tried (Joe Thomas/Brady Quinn). The Jets gave it a shot very unsuccesfully as well (D’Brickashaw Ferguson/Kellen Clemens), especially when they could have paired Leinart or Cutler in the first round with Marcus McNeil who San Diego snatched up with the pick after the Jets took Clemens.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
No reason that we can’t go Okung/Pike… or whatever LT is second best to Okung as he’ll probably be gone by the time we come up.
by CanadianBillsFan on Dec 2, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Anthony Davis is my current favorite.
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Dec 2, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
Ok jut did a bit of research on him. Seems like a great prospect at Tackle if he declares for this year. Very younf though.
by CanadianBillsFan on Dec 2, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
Buffalo isn't Atlanta
Nor is Buffalo Pittsburgh. Buffalo is Buffalo and won’t be getting a franchise QB and franchise LT in the same draft. The only way I see it happening is if Buffalo takes their top rated LT and then falls backwards into an unheralded QB who turns out to be a franchise QB.
By the way, count me among those who really aren’t in favor of Fewell getting the HC gig even if the Bills win most/all of the remaining games. However, if Fewell could get Edwards turned around I’d have to reconsider. If Edwards’ problems are indeed mental then changing that mentality (mid-season no less) would speak very well to Fewell’s coaching abilities.
Of course we could make things more challenging, Lisa, but then the stupider students would be in here complaining, furrowing their brows in a vain attempt to understand the situation--Seymour Skinner
I’m really confused by the “Buffalo isn’t Atlanta” and “Buffalo isn’t Pittsburgh” arguments. What?
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Dec 2, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
Both Atlanta and Pittsburgh have functional front offices
Of course we could make things more challenging, Lisa, but then the stupider students would be in here complaining, furrowing their brows in a vain attempt to understand the situation--Seymour Skinner
But why can’t we hire a new GM …. like Atlanta did? I’d say they were a much bigger mess than Buffalo is.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
From a front office standpoint I don’t know that anyone in recent memory outdoes Buffalo. Atlanta went from a bad GM to a good GM. Buffalo has to change from a confused muddle to a good GM—which means pretty much dumping the guys currently populating the front office…and that doesn’t sound like a sure bet.
Of course we could make things more challenging, Lisa, but then the stupider students would be in here complaining, furrowing their brows in a vain attempt to understand the situation--Seymour Skinner
So, you’re saying that it’s impossible for us to have a streamlined front office in five months’ time. Gotcha. :)
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Dec 2, 2009 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
It’s not impossible for Buffalo to replicate Atlanta’s sudden turn around. However, nothing in recent history suggests that Buffalo will identify—let alone choose to hire—a top notch GM.
What we’ve seen so far doesn’t signal great change is coming. While Brandon isn’t making the GM decision he appears to have input into it. If I’m Russ Brandon am I trying to hire the absolute best GM for the Bills, knowing that he will marginalize my influence and perhaps draw a line through my name in the budget? Or, alternately, am I trying to hire the best GM for the Bills who won’t screw with me? Just having the possible conflict of interest makes me a bit queasy.
Of course we could make things more challenging, Lisa, but then the stupider students would be in here complaining, furrowing their brows in a vain attempt to understand the situation--Seymour Skinner
Russ’s job is going to be safe for the foreseeable future. He’s Ralph right-hand man. Not to mention he’s the marketing guy and doing a marvelous job at that. How much football influence does he have now anyways?
"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.
by MattRichWarren on Dec 2, 2009 8:11 PM EST up reply actions
That's the unsettling question
He might have a lot, some, a little or none. I’m hoping that he has none but suspect he has either some or a lot.
Of course we could make things more challenging, Lisa, but then the stupider students would be in here complaining, furrowing their brows in a vain attempt to understand the situation--Seymour Skinner
Well this photo business has completely turned me off to Brandon in any capacity. It’s like friggin Clark Griswold’s Christmas bonus being the Jelly of the Month club.
"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.
by MattRichWarren on Dec 3, 2009 8:59 AM EST up reply actions
Best line of the post
Half-assed analysis after the jump.
Rec’d for that line alone.
2010 Bills' truth in advertising: "Look out Cleveland, this year we score 6!" - bluecollarbuffalo
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