Draft Order: Week 14 (Bills pick 8th)

by MattRichWarren on Dec 14, 2009 2:06 PM EST

The NFL draft order is first determined by the Super Bowl contestants who pick 32 and 31. The playoff teams are then slotted by record from 21-30 (which is a change from past years). The other 20 teams are slotted by record. The first tie breaker in the draft is strength of schedule followed by conference win-loss.

If the NFL draft were held today, the top half of the NFL draft would be as follows:

1. Buccaneers (1-12, 56% opponent winning percentage)
2. Rams (1-12, 57% opponent winning percentage)
3. Lions (2-11, 50% opponent winning percentage)
4. Browns (2-11, 55% opponent winning percentage)
5. Chiefs (3-10, 52% opponent winning percentage)
6. Redskins (4-9, 43% opponent winning percentage)
7. Raiders (4-9, 54% opponent winning percentage)
8. Bills (5-8, 45% opponent winning percentage)
9. Broncos from Bears (5-8, 47% opponent winning percentage) [Jay Cutler]
10. Seahawks (5-8, 52% opponent winning percentage, 4-6 in NFC)
11+. 49ers (5-7, 54% opponent winning percentage, 4-4 in NFC)
11. 49ers from Panthers (5-8, 54% opponent winning percentage, 5-4 in NFC) [Everette Brown]
12. Steelers (6-7, 47% opponent winning percentage)
13. Falcons (6-7, 51% opponent winning percentage)
14. Titans (6-7, 52% opponent winning percentage, 3-7 in AFC)
15+. 49ers (5-7, 54% opponent winning percentage, 4-4 in NFC)
16. Texans (6-7, 54% opponent winning percentage)

[Note: Broncos first round pick belongs to Seahawks.]

+ - If 49ers win tonight they will be 6-7 and a coin flip would determine who picks first, Texans or Niners, as spot 15. If the 49ers lose tonight they drop to 5-8 and would pick 11.

Note : Opponent winning percentages could change slightly based on the game tonight but the Bills will still pick 8th so I published anyways.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Maybe this is lost on me, but why would there be a coin flip between the 5-8 Bears and the 6-7 Steelers?

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by Brian Galliford on Dec 14, 2009 2:13 PM EST reply actions

There wouldn’t be duh! Let me fix it.

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by MattRichWarren on Dec 14, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

Well in that case, why would the 6-7 Steelers and Falcons pick before the 5-8 Seahawks, who aren’t 5-8 yet?

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by Brian Galliford on Dec 14, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

Scratch the last part… getting my SF’s and SEA’s messed up.

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by Brian Galliford on Dec 14, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

I was looking strictly at opponents winning percentage keeping the records out of it. Brain fart. I think it’s right now. And the Bills still only dropped from 7th last week to 8th this week.

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by MattRichWarren on Dec 14, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

Given the fact that the Raiders are playing the Browns in two weeks from now and the Skins are playing a struggling Giants team at home on FedEx Field on Monday Night Football makes me believe that we have a pretty darn good shot at picking fifth, which should make sure that we can draft our franchise QB.

by BillsfanfromDenmark on Dec 14, 2009 2:46 PM EST reply actions

Playing the Colts

Is going to kill our strength of schedule for the draft. Its going to be nearly impossible to pick ahead of Washington unless they win twice.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Dec 14, 2009 2:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Projected draft off the cuff

1. Buccaneers: no decision if they finish first: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

2. Rams: There’s going to be great temptation to reach for Locker. I think it’s going to happen. Jake Locker, QB, Washington.

3. Lions: Simple choice here: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma.

4. Browns: one of two players, McClain or Berry. For here, let’s go with Eric Berry, S, Tennessee.

5. Chiefs: the other of those two: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama

6. Redskins: Crushing the Bills hopes and dreams: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

7. Raiders: nobody knows what’s going to happen here. With the Raider’s playing well recently, Al Davis must somehow feel vindicated. I know this won’t be the pick, but common sense says: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

8. Bills: Do we select a injury prone QB whose arm might not do well in WNY, but has all the intangibles and accuracy one could want (Bradford)? Or a player who fills a need and is a relatively safe pick (Okung)? Either way I’d be happy.

Something to consider: Since Fewell took over and the Bills have won two games, I’ve gone through about 10-15 mock drafts, with the draft order changing to reflect the current status plus a projection at the remaining games. Jimmy Clausen and Jake Locker have been available in only half those scenario’s. Bradford has been available in only 50% due to projected trades from teams selecting behind Buffalo.

by Der Jaeger on Dec 14, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

You missed the part where Locker announced he’s going back to UW next year, DJ. :)

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by Brian Galliford on Dec 14, 2009 6:34 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I missed that small part : )

It’s going to be especially difficult for the team to get Clausen or Bradford now.

We’d be better off thinking about a 1st Round OT, a UFA QB, and a developmental QB. Which is basically what you outlined a few weeks back.

I’d be happy with Anthony Davis, Pennington, and Tebow.

by Der Jaeger on Dec 14, 2009 8:38 PM EST up reply actions

Welcome to the OT bandwagon!

There’s still plenty of room.

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by Ron From NM on Dec 15, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

I see your point, but I would just really, really, really, really, really like to see the Bills finally get our franchise QB in this draft and there are only so many of those guys, and I believe Sam Bradford is just that.
Yeah, we need a LT, but I think we could sign a guy like Alex Barron or Donald Penn in FA, who’d both be very effective (at least compared to our current LT-situation).
Gerald McCoy or Rolando McClain could be other picks, but as I believe in drafting your QB and big men early, McCoy would be my preference.

by BillsfanfromDenmark on Dec 15, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions

With Locker out.

I see no franchise QB/

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Dec 15, 2009 11:53 PM EST up reply actions

The more I think about it, the more I think we should go OT in the 1st Round.

by Der Jaeger on Dec 15, 2009 5:38 PM EST up reply actions

Unfortunately, we’re in the position where drafting the best available player will probably be the best move (other than a RB or safety). We have many needs, especially on offense.

by Dr. Brackish Okun on Dec 15, 2009 8:49 PM EST up reply actions

Or cornerback.

We need to start drafting offensive lineman like we did DBs under Jauron.

Both seem to break down often for the Bills.

We have enough compentant DB’s to keep plugging in with Injuries.

Now we need the same with the Oline.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Dec 15, 2009 9:21 PM EST up reply actions

Me too.

Locker was the only franchise QB.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Dec 15, 2009 11:54 PM EST up reply actions

Is this the strength of schedule based on the teams that we have already played or based on the whole 16 game schedule? In other words, is playing Indy going to muck up our crappy SOS and cost us multiple spots in the draft?

I still can’t wrap my mind around the idea of Pittsburgh drafting a couple spots from Buffalo.

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by kaisertown on Dec 14, 2009 2:48 PM EST reply actions

Dunno. Good question. I use this one: http://draftdebacled.com/teams_nfl.aspx

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
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by MattRichWarren on Dec 14, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions

This SOS is just the teams that Buffalo has played. I did some quick math and with the three remaining opponents added in, our SOS jumps to 51%.

Chicago plays Minnesota which gets canceled out by also playing Detroit. Baltimore will hurt them too, but they’re in better shape than the Bills.

Seattle has Tampa, Green Bay and Tennessee remaining. Let’s hope they beat Tampa and their division wins some games because that SOS should be pretty close.

San Fran has Arizona, Philly, Detroit and St. Louis. So they’re SOS is definitely worse than ours, but they should win a couple games still.

Carolina has Minnesota, the Giants and Tampa Bay, so if (when) they lose out, their SOS will be way tougher than ours. But another Buffalo win will likely leave us drafting behind their pick. I hope Brown was worth it.

by kaisertown on Dec 14, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions

Draft a monster OT.....

… then a true MLB, then a big, fat, DT who can hog up two blockers. Need these guys now.
Sign Richie Incognito who is now a free agent. DO IT OBD!! Can you imagine how nasty our line would be with Wood back, and GOOD rookie tackle, and Incognutso?
Very nasty!!!!
Conrad Dobler lives!

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by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Dec 15, 2009 9:48 PM EST reply actions