Do the Bills have a chance against New England?
by Brian Galliford on Dec 16, 2009 11:14 AM EST
in Buffalo Bills Opinion
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PrintThe New England Patriots own the Buffalo Bills, as Eric was kind enough to remind us of this morning. Winners of 17 of the last 18 meetings against Buffalo, the Patriots have looked rather human this season, as they're currently the lowest-ranked AFC divisional leader, record-wise, sitting at 8-5.
Buffalo hosts New England at Ralph Wilson Stadium this Sunday in the midst of a 12-game losing against the Patriots. While Bill Belichick and company fight to secure an AFC East divisional crown much later than anyone thought they'd acquire it, the 5-8 Bills are on the verge of yet another re-building effort. But upset wins happen; I believe the phrase "Any given Sunday" is quite popular.
Can the Bills pull off an incredibly unlikely and cathartic upset victory this weekend? Here are five reasons that it's more possible than it ever has been.
New England's road woes. The Patriots are undefeated (7-0) at Gillette Stadium this season, but they're only 1-5 when traveling to other stadiums. By comparison, the Bills are 3-4 on the road this year. In addition, that one victory came in London, on a neutral field, over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It's difficult to pinpoint exactly why New England has struggled so much on the road this season, but the undeniable fact is that they have.
Masochistic voice of reason: Buffalo isn't exactly great at home. They're 2-3 at Ralph Wilson Stadium this season, and have a 2-7 record at home since starting the 2008 season with three straight home wins.
Tom Brady might be human. Dealing with various injuries and an offensive line playing far below New England standards, Brady has struggled of late. In his last four games, he's completing a solid 63% of his passes (87 of 138), and his yardage total is still impressive in that time span (1,091 yards and 7.9 yards per attempt). But his 4-5 TD-INT ratio is hardly inspiring, and his team is only 2-2 in those games. His quarterback rating over the last month is a very average 82.1.
Masochistic voice of reason: In the same time frame, Ryan Fitzpatrick's quarterback rating is a full 9 points lower, thanks highly to borderline great numbers in Jacksonville and against Miami.
No longer kings of the East. In two straight seasons, New England has lost two divisional games. Last season, nobody was surprised about that, because Brady missed the year with a shredded knee. But the Pats have already dropped two divisional games this season - you guessed it, both on the road, to New York and Miami.
Masochistic voice of reason: New England has not lost three games against AFC East opponents since 2000, when that 5-11 Patriots outfit was captained and commanded by Drew Bledsoe.
If Cleveland can do it, why can't we? Cleveland shocked the football world last Thursday night when they defeated their arch nemesis, Pittsburgh, by a 13-6 count at home. This was a one-win football team (we won't get into who their one win was against) defeating their most bitter of rivals - a rival that has completely dominated them for the past decade and caused their franchise a lot of heartache. Sounds familiar.
Masochistic voice of reason: Pittsburgh entered that game in Cleveland on a four-game slide that included losses to Kansas City and Oakland. That gave them three losses to sub-.500 teams on the season entering that contest. New England has yet to lose to a sub-.500 team this season.
Karma owes us. Buffalo nearly got their cathartic release in Week 1, when, against enormous odds, they came within two minutes of shocking New England on their own field on Monday Night Football. Alas, Leodis McKelvin fumbled a kick return, the Patriots scored 12 points in the waning moments of the game, and they escaped with a 25-24 victory. Imagine for a moment how that victory would have lifted Buffalo. Dick Jauron might still have a job, Trent Edwards might rank higher than that lion from the Wizard of Oz in the courage department, and we might be talking about a potential playoff berth. Karma owes us. Karma should make the freaking Patriots fumble away a victory against Buffalo for once.
Masochistic voice of reason: Karma has owed, and wholly ignored, the Buffalo Bills since 2004.
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I’m very much in tune with your voice of reason. Karma has gleefully pounded the Bills for several years (look at the IR list….again) and shows no sign of abating. Look for balls to continue to not bounce Buffalo’s way en route to another loss to the Pats.
Of course we could make things more challenging, Lisa, but then the stupider students would be in here complaining, furrowing their brows in a vain attempt to understand the situation--Seymour Skinner
my feeling is that we finally have a chance in this game to beat the pats.
my feeling about my previous feeling is that if the spread was new england -50, i’d take it. ugh.
by quantumuprising on Dec 16, 2009 11:21 AM EST reply actions
Am I the only one who would love to see MRW and Poz sit a a table with K and Mr. Necci here a talk Bills? What a back and forth that would be.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
by sireric on Dec 16, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Why not Ron?
He’s a million times more pessimistic than I!!!
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Dec 16, 2009 12:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
LOL
Bro, I am the biggest Bills fan you’ll meet. I love my team, but it’s been so hard to like this team the or even find anything positive. (Aside from J Byrd)
Nothing I would like more than to meet w/ some of you and talk Bills football over some adult pops.
by Michael_Necci on Dec 16, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
So when are you heading to the Southwest?
Of course we could make things more challenging, Lisa, but then the stupider students would be in here complaining, furrowing their brows in a vain attempt to understand the situation--Seymour Skinner
You may have noticed my voice of optimism waning. I’m just waiting. I haven’t defended Trent or Fitz, Fewell or Jauron. I’ve learned a lot about “show me something” from K I must say. It’s helped me deal with Maybin, Johnson, Hardy and a bunch of other guys.
After that Titans loss I woke up despondent the next day and not because the Bills lost. I knew I would have to face the firing range at Rumblings. I didn’t support Jauron as much as I didn’t support firing him midseason. When it happened I was relieved that I didn’t have to continue to put up with fans clamoring for change in the middle of the year… Hey then there’s this Brian Brohm thing with everyone and their mother askign for him now. Can’t escape it.
Can’t wait for the offseason. :-)
"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.
by MattRichWarren on Dec 17, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
Remember
New England’s only “road” win was in London vs. TB.
Playing at the "The Ralph" hasn't been a road game for any team lately, especially the Pats
If anything the Pats have owned us here as much as they have at Gillette Stadium. I see a huge game on the horizon for Sammy Morris and Randy Moss. Heck I even see Brady giving extra love to Sam Aiken this week, just to rub it in…
I'm terrified of Fitzpatrick's arm in his first real "Buffalo weather" game.
Is it possible to have a negative completion percentage?
if anyone can
he will. There may even be a couple completions to himself when going into the wind. Of course, he might overthrow himself.
I'm not so sure about that.
If the wind adds some scatter to the throws, it could be more of an equalizer. Accurate throws would become inaccurate, while inaccurate throws might not become much more inaccurate. Random errors don’t add linearly. So i’m hoping for stiff, swirling winds.
by Sixteenthback on Dec 16, 2009 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
12 in a row and counting
NE is well on their way to the magical 20 consecutive wins against a single opponent that Miami laid on the Bills in the ’70’s. That was a different era and with the salary cap and free agency, it’s probably much harder to do today. However, look to the Pats to notch #13. Belicheat knows he dodged a bullet in week one and will not underestimate the Bills this time around. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills D hangs tough until deep in the 3rd quarter, when they’ll finally succumb to fatigue and begin to allow big plays. Wow, now I feel like Nostradamus’ cousin, Obviousadamus.
"They're Killin' Me Whitey. They're Killin' Me" -- Lou Saban
I don’t think anyone underestimated anyone in that first game. There’s basically no tape on anyone at that point, something that NE is extremely adept at analyzing. We played a decent game but Brady was just coming back and NE went through a pretty substantial talent drain (on and off the field) in the offseason. That said, this doesn’t appear to be the most lopsided game we’re ever gonna see, at least going in.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
no tape on anyone at that point,
Yeah, and the fact that the Bills didn’t have time to figure out how to screw up yet :-)
"The Bills have no playoff aspirations" – Dan Dierdorf
When done well, screwing-up can be an art form…it just takes practice. Look for a masterpiece in the 4th frame against the Patriots.
"They're Killin' Me Whitey. They're Killin' Me" -- Lou Saban
When done well, screwing-up can be an art form…
Does that make the Bills playbook the NFL equivalent of the Kama Sutra ? I guess that would explain why the Bills are so good at screwing themselves :-)
"The Bills have no playoff aspirations" – Dan Dierdorf
by Joe P. on Dec 16, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
There was the preseason tape that hinted at an inept offense. A masterful deception by the Bills coaching staff as the rest of the league thought they were simply holding back…they couldn’t be that bad could they?
In fairness, I don’t believe the Patriots coaches and players underestimate anyone ever; they’re too disciplined (especially after eighteen and one). I’m sure that Belicheat is up late every night this week scheming some way to bring Fitzpatrick’s stunning completion percentage even lower….like single digits.
"They're Killin' Me Whitey. They're Killin' Me" -- Lou Saban
wouldn't his cousin
be Cosa Nostra- damus?
only if the bills get killed and then swim with the fishes.
by quantumuprising on Dec 16, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
Forgot Something
Buffalo, for the past several years, has played New England tough in the first meeting of the season and been blown out in the second. This would be the, wait for it, second meeting of the season.
Of course we could make things more challenging, Lisa, but then the stupider students would be in here complaining, furrowing their brows in a vain attempt to understand the situation--Seymour Skinner
i dislike you alot right now.......
just FYI
:)
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Dec 16, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
Zing!
But you’re forgetting that it’s Fitzpatrick’s first game against NE this year. Hah! He’ll be the difference this time around.
"They're Killin' Me Whitey. They're Killin' Me" -- Lou Saban
I wouldn't really call 13-0 a blowout.
More a battle of who could suck less. And the Bills actually out gained the Pats last year.
by twoeightnine on Dec 16, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
if it wasn’t for the 234908324mph winds, it wouldve been a blowout.
by quantumuprising on Dec 16, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
But it is the first meeing with Fewell as HC......wait.....not sure that helps us??????
"The Bills have no playoff aspirations" – Dan Dierdorf
Isn’t a first meeting for a few of the Bills players as well? I mean, there is a growing contingent that were on other teams when the season started. Or to be more accurate, they were part of other football organizations; the practice squad is not the same as playing for the team.
"They're Killin' Me Whitey. They're Killin' Me" -- Lou Saban
Meredith, Incognito, Simmons, Draft, Brohm?, Byrd (in the defense, anyways),
Florence, J. Scott, B. Scott (at LB), Shawn Nelson are all playing them for the first time as starters.
"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.
by MattRichWarren on Dec 17, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
I'm going into the game
Like a passerby to an ugly, bloody car wreck. Try as you might, you can’t look away.
Wes Welker and Ben Watson
Also, It seems that they never use the same weapons twice in the same season to beat us. How ever this game unfolds I am sure we have seen it before. I do like our chances but not as much as I dislike Wes Welker and Ben Watson.
One thing is constant though, we will need to pressure Brady.
Excuses are a sign of weakness!!!!!!
I have a better chance of winning the Rumblings Premiere League
AMIRIGHT?!?!
The Pats have owned the Bills in every way possible this decade. If the Bills were a good team or at least playing well, I’d say they’d have a great shot. It just seems impossible with this current group.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Dec 16, 2009 12:59 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Don’t you ever listen to Kevin Garnett?
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Dec 16, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
Huh?
No comprende
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Dec 16, 2009 1:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
ANYTHING IS POSSSIBLLLLLLLLLLLLE!
Bill Polian and AJ Smith are gone, so there's not the usual balance between "sane" and "others." Ralph has mentally checked out since 1994. It's a very dangerous time. The coalition for reason is extremely weak.
LOL. Glad somebody got it.
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Dec 16, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
“ANYTHING IS POSSIIIIBBLEEE!!” will forever be one of the most picked on statements coming from the mouth of a champion right after they have won. That was classic.
"I don't know how to explain it but we seem to find eachother on the ice and make things happen... Yeah. Pass, shoot, score... Yeah. Pass.. Shoot.. And score."
So when are we trading junk for 8 new all-pro starters?
by twoeightnine on Dec 16, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
When the NFL adopts the NBA’s salary cap policies.
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Dec 16, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Al Jefferson isn't junk
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Until this team learns what a forward pass is
they won’t beat anyone with a record better than their own. I consider it a minor miracle they won in KC, and even then they had to secure the INT to pull it off. The run game was dominating (not really, but statistically it was), but nearly wasn’t enough to win against a wounded chief.
The only thing I can hang my hat on is that Belichick won’t be going against Jauron, so he might not know their game the same as before.
Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.
by TheAfghanTwilight on Dec 16, 2009 1:16 PM EST reply actions
Until this team learns what a forward pass is they won’t beat anyone with a record better than their own.
You mean like 3 weeks ago when they beat Miami?
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Dec 16, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t count a couple good throws as a team mastering their passing offense. I think Fitzpatrick has been putrid, and if not for a couple plays, his numbers would make JaMarcus Russell look like a star. I will say his one pass to Evans, in a tight window – that was a nice pass. The rest have been of the “oh boy, how’s this going to end” affair.
Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.
by TheAfghanTwilight on Dec 16, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
theyve ended in several wins. shrug.
by quantumuprising on Dec 16, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
OK, but to play devil’s advocate, wouldn’t it just take “a couple good throws” to stay competitive with the Pats, at least?
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Dec 16, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, definitely. Though, I think they need to find a way to get all pieces of the receiving corps on the same page. If they figure that out, it’ll change the way the QB attacks, which might actually mean he will ATTACK!
Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.
by TheAfghanTwilight on Dec 16, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
Nice article, very comical Brian! But did you have to use that picture, ugh.
As for Karma , I am reminded of the article I posted after the Week 1 heartbreaker. I have found it and posted it below:
Dear Buffalo Bills fans, I hate you!
-God
PS-McKelvin, take a lap!
Yup, that pretty much sums it up…
by Sluss88 on Sep 14, 2009 7:44 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Some things will never change!
They are hard to play but not hard to beat.
- Mike Lombardi on the Buffalo Bills
schobel’s sacked Brady more than any player
Never put salt in your eyes
by J2 on Dec 16, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
Which proves the (little-discussed) theory that sacks don’t create wins.
Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.
by TheAfghanTwilight on Dec 16, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
That is better, much better!
They are hard to play but not hard to beat.
- Mike Lombardi on the Buffalo Bills
We have a better shot
Than most people are giving us credit for. New England is a floundering team. As thoroughly as they’ve whipped us the last 8 years, they’ve pretty much been whipping the NFL at the same clip. Not so true so far this season.
Furthermore we match up well against them. We have a terrible run defense but their starter is the not so fear inducing duo of Kevin Faulk / Lawrence Maroney. Their defense is mediocre at best: their pass defense is falling apart because of mediocre corners and a pitiful pass rush (T-27th in the NFL in sacks). There’s a reason we played well against them week 1 and it wasn’t purely psychological.
Not predicting a win here, just trying to quiet the naysayers.
Well Faulk has been Buffalo’s achilles heel in the past. Don’t write him off.
"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.
by MattRichWarren on Dec 17, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
Of Course we can win
Thats what is great about the NFL, any team is good enough to beat any other team on any day. Just look who knocked off Pittsburg. KC, then OAK, then CLE, I mean, WOW. I think we will keep this one close and lose in a close fight.
Welker nightmare
Among the many things we are bad at is covering a receiver like Welker. Even good teams can’t handle him. My nightmare is him with 20 catches for 200 yards and 2 TDs.
by jpheff on Dec 16, 2009 4:54 PM EST via mobile reply actions
is that
Bellichick or a Bills fan look-alike?
Another thought........
Perry is going to be pumped up and have some wrinkles for this one. I bet he hasn’t slept all week. Staying at work. Watching film. Finding weaknesses.
He HAS to win this game as his trophy win which will go a long way for him to stay in Buffalo or a future coaching position elsewhere.
Not sure if we win. But Perry will have the boys ready.
Our 2nd and 3rd string boys.
BILL-LIEVE!!!!
"A failure becomes just one time at bat if you refuse to let it defeat you." Marv Levy.
by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Dec 16, 2009 8:34 PM EST reply actions
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