Draft Order: Week 15 (Bills pick 9th)
by MattRichWarren on Dec 22, 2009 9:05 AM EST
38 comments
The NFL draft order is first determined by the Super Bowl contestants who pick 32 and 31. The playoff teams are then slotted by record from 21-30 (which is a change from past years). The other 20 teams are slotted by record. The first tie breaker in the draft is strength of schedule followed by conference win-loss.
If the NFL draft were held today, the top half of the NFL draft would be as follows: (+ clinched a spot picking ahead of the Bills)
1. Rams+ (1-13, 53% opponent winning percentage)
2. Lions+ (2-12, 51% opponent winning percentage)
3. Buccaneers+ (2-12, 56% opponent winning percentage)
4. Browns (3-11, 51% opponent winning percentage)
5. Chiefs (3-11, 53% opponent winning percentage)
6. Redskins (4-10, 50% opponent winning percentage)
7. Seahawks (5-9, 47% opponent winning percentage)
8. Broncos from Bears (5-9, 49% opponent winning percentage) [Jay Cutler]
9. Bills (5-9, 51% opponent winning percentage)
10. Raiders (5-9, 52% opponent winning percentage)
11. 49ers (6-8, 49% opponent winning percentage)
12. 49ers from Panthers (6-8, 55% opponent winning percentage) [Everette Brown]
13. Steelers (7-7, 47% opponent winning percentage)
14. Jaguars (7-7, 50% opponent winning percentage)
15. Falcons (7-7, 51% opponent winning percentage)
16. Titans (7-7, 52% opponent winning percentage)
17. Jets (7-7, 53% opponent winning percentage)
18. Texans (7-7, 54% opponent winning percentage)
19. Dolphins (7-7, 55% opponent winning percentage)
The Bills dropped one spot this week despite losing a game because the Seahawks played the Buccaneers, significantly lowering their opponents' winning percentage.
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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looking at remaining schedules of the bears and seahawks
i think that the bears will beat the lions and the seahawks lose there remaining games so i would guess we will pick 8th in the case that we lose out
so my mock would look like this
1.St Louis Jimmy Clausen
2.Detroit Suh
3.Tampa Bay Eric Berry
4.Cleveland Sam Bradford
5.Kansas City Russell Okung
6.Washington Bruce Campbell
7.Seattle Trent Williams
8. BILLS SELECTION
if this is how it plays out i think u have to take Gerald mccoy and hope that it improves the urn defense and the pass rush making the kind of impact that could psark better years from Stroud and Schobel and maybe even Maybin
but if we can get clausen or bradford we should take the chance on either of them and start to rebuild around them at QB
"The only yardstick for success our society has is being a champion. No one remembers anything else." John Madden
Tampa Bay would never, ever take Eric Berry over Gerald McCoy. Not in a million, billion years.
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by Brian Galliford on Dec 22, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
I agree. Tanard Jackson is a good safety for them and they’ve got some other decent options on the roster at safety. DT is another story where they don’t have anybody who is remotely good. Then add in the issues that come along with drafting a position like safety in the top 3 where you would have to make that player the highest paid safety in the league and I can’t imagine Tampa taking Berry over McCoy.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
There is no way a guy like Spagnuolo pass a dominant D-Line like Suh, IMO.
by hightower_mc on Dec 22, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
Disagree, the Rams offence is a disaster right now.
Some stats; 2007 – Rams scored 16.4 points per game.
2008 – Rams scored 14.5 points per game.
2009 – Rams scoring 11.4 points per game.
Bulger’s QB rating has been at 70 all three years and he has been injured as well. They have no credible back up and have invested heavily in the O line last year [Jason Brown and Jason Smith]. They have an excellent running back [Stephen Jackson] and look like they could work a rookie QB in. I think it depends on how the QBs look in the combine and workouts.
Just because Spagnuolo is a defensive guy that does not mean he put his brain in park when he became a Head Coach. QB is the most important position; the Rams have a real large hole at QB; they may have the first pick in the draft equals a possible QB pick.
by NorthLeft12 on Dec 23, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
I agree. I think the Rams should pick Suh and might be more likely to do that than grab a QB, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to draft a QB if they believe in one, especially since they play in a dome. You’re paying huge money to a first overall pick and it’s easier to build a roster around a wildly overpaid QB than a wildly overpaid DT. And while Spagnuolo is a defensive guy, they’ve got a GM who doesn’t necessarily thinks the same way and might outrank him on draft day.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
I agree, it'll be Suh
Word over at St. Louis’ site is they all want Suh as well. If they go with Claussen, they would be drafting him too high. They either draft Suh there or trade down and get Claussen. This is my analysis on things in St. Louis: Spagnuolo has a defensive mindset. He will do everything in his power to bring that defensive line to prominence. Suh will occupy blockers if not generating pressure on the QB, allowing former 1st Round pick DE Chris Long a better chance of reaching the QB.
I feel St. Louis will address their QB position in the 2nd Round. I think they follow the footsteps Harbaugh took in getting Joe Flacco. Get a big, tall QB that will be a game manager. Two QB’s that should be available early in the 2nd Round will be Ryan Mallett and Tony Pike, both of these QB’s should be able to improve their draft stock at the Combine. Personally, I feel Claussen’s draft stock will drop at the Combine, which means the best QB in the draft would probably be Sam Bradford, coming off a severe injury.
Agreed
You’d have to be a fool to take Clausen #1, If you really want him over Suh, you would trade down if you have any brains.
There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.
by The Buffalo Kid on Dec 23, 2009 2:03 AM EST up reply actions
Ah to be a 49ers fan.
2 selections in the top 15? a great HC. A solid D. and a good running back. Things are looking up over in San Fran
things have been looking up over in San Fran every year for ten years
just like right here. They started 3-0 and tanked yet again. I’ll believe things are up there when I see it. Same as here.
"you just have to know there's always going to be adversity. None of these games are going to be easy. Nothing will be given to us" - Paul Posluszny
A great HC?
Meh
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
At least they’ve got a real HC
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
That I can agree with
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
I wouldn't call Singletary a great HC yet.
I’m thinking more of a serviceable HC.
He needs to win something before we start calling him great,
There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.
by The Buffalo Kid on Dec 23, 2009 2:05 AM EST up reply actions
The Bears should finish 6-10 with a loss against Minny and a win at Detriot
The Seahawks should finish 5-11 with a loss at GB and a loss against the Titans
The Bills should finish 5-11 because Reggie Corner is starting (I kid, I kid but not really) and it sounds like Peyton does not want to rest this year.
The Redskins should finish 5-11 because the Cowboys will find a way to ruin a late season game and the Chargers should roll over them.
Kansas City will have a worse record than us as they play the Broncos and the Bengals, one win is possible but I can’t see two.
The Browns could suprise many people and finish 5-11 as they get the Raiders and Jaguars at home, both are winnable. If we were both 5-11 dont they pick after us because they beat us head to head?
We have a chance at picking 5 through 7 based on schedules
"you just have to know there's always going to be adversity. None of these games are going to be easy. Nothing will be given to us" - Paul Posluszny
If we were both 5-11 dont they pick after us because they beat us head to head?
No. It’s based on strength of schedule.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
wow
I’m surpised that doesnt come into play at all.
"you just have to know there's always going to be adversity. None of these games are going to be easy. Nothing will be given to us" - Paul Posluszny
I think what I was told the last time this was discussed was that if you’re in the same conference, then it’s all the normal playoff tie-breakers if the strength of schedule is the exact same. If you’re in different conferences, it’s just SOS and then the coin flip.
I think head to head makes more sense than SOS too.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
normal playoff tiebreakers include head to head. The draft only takes into account divisional records and then conference record.
"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.
by MattRichWarren on Dec 22, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
Technically, we’re still drafting behind Oakland too. They play the Browns and Ravens while we play Atlanta and Indy. So that strength of schedule will flip. Hopefully, Oakland beats Cleveland (I cannot believe we have a rooting interest in that game).
The Browns can’t realistically (or maybe even mathematically) pick behind Buffalo. Once we play the Colts, our SOS shoots up a little. The Panthers and Chiefs are the only teams in the top 10 who could have the same record as Buffalo and still pick behind us.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
that is terrible
Panthers and Chiefs are the only teams in the top 10 who could have the same record as Buffalo and still pick behind us.
Yuck. Maybe we are headed for the 11th pick as usual with one more win?
"you just have to know there's always going to be adversity. None of these games are going to be easy. Nothing will be given to us" - Paul Posluszny
I think anything between 7 and 11 is possible, but looking at the games K mentions below, Oakland and Chicago both have very possible wins and it would be surprising if SF doesn’t remain behind us too. So, 8 or 9 seems most likely.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
they really did didnt they
Cutler has not been the savior and Orton has a legit shot at the wildcard
"you just have to know there's always going to be adversity. None of these games are going to be easy. Nothing will be given to us" - Paul Posluszny
Have to hope all the teams around the Bills win
because our SOS is going to lose all the tiebreakers once we play the Colts.
Go Carolina in week 17 against New Orleans!
Go Chicago against Detroit
Go Raiders over Browns!
Go Seahawks….eh they’re not winning another game, dang.
SF should beat Detroit and STL to get to 8-8.
If the Bills lose out, they’re going to be picking 8th (assuming the Bears can beat Detroit and Raiders over Browns). But as we all know, things won’t fall the Bills way. They’ll beat the Colts scrubs, the Panthers will lose out and we’ll end up with the 11th pick, like usual.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Draft Order
If the Bills and Seahawks both end up at 5-11 who will have the tougher schedule? The Bills final two games are against the Falcons and the Colts and the Bills opponent winning % is 51 while Seattle has to play Green Bay and Tennessee who are both playoff contenders. I think it will be close since their opponents winning % equals 49 right now.
The Bills will have the tougher schedule
Indy and Atlanta are 21-7 right now
Tennesee and GB are 16-12
The Bills’ opponents right now are 51%, while Seattle’s is only 47%. No chance.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Chicago beats Detroit – means we draft eighth
Hopefully the Seahawks are motivated in their last game of the season against the Titans at home and beat them – means we draft seventh.
Of course, we also need the Raiders to beat the Browns at home, which I expect them to do.
So ideally, the Bills pick seventh, and realistically they pick eighth, which is still a pretty solid place to be drafting in terms of acquiring strong talent without having to pay top 5 money. This being said, I could easily see the Bills trading up for Sam Bradford (or Clausen), if a guy like Mallett doesn’t declare, because let’s face it: We need a QB more than anything and Jason Campbell, Chad Pennington, Michael Vick aren’t that guy.
by BillsfanfromDenmark on Dec 22, 2009 4:08 PM EST reply actions
Thanks Matt for keeping us updated
Im hoping we break into the 6th or 7th spot. Although our OT might be gone by then. If Berry is still there I think Dick would have took him. He is another DB with elite talent.
I don’t see us picking any higher than 8th realistically. We’d need teams to win that would have a hard time doing that.
"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.
by MattRichWarren on Dec 23, 2009 9:08 AM EST up reply actions
I can live with us picking at 8. Perfect place to miss out on the overhyped QBs and take an LT :-)
"The Bills have no playoff aspirations" – Dan Dierdorf
Or they could just shock the football world and take an unheralded safety who is versatile and a team leader…wait, nevermind.
2010 Bills' truth in advertising: "Look out Cleveland, this year we score 6!" - bluecollarbuffalo
by thefourwinds on Dec 23, 2009 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
LOL!!!! Maybe they should just take a kicker :-)
"The Bills have no playoff aspirations" – Dan Dierdorf
Brilliant, Joe! I think you’ve hit on it…
2010 Bills' truth in advertising: "Look out Cleveland, this year we score 6!" - bluecollarbuffalo
by thefourwinds on Dec 24, 2009 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, we might have to get down that road. If Anthony Davis is on the board, I would pick him, unless Bradford or McClain is on the board.
by BillsfanfromDenmark on Dec 23, 2009 5:39 PM EST reply actions
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