Bills Fantasy Thursday: Week 16 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em
Welcome to the final edition of Bills Fantasy Friday for 2009! Which is actually happening on a Thursday, for obvious reasons. The Buffalo Bills travel to Atlanta to take on the recently eliminated Atlanta Falcons. It's Week 16, which is the Super Bowl for most leagues. If you're still alive, congratulation and good luck. I'll keep this brief as it's unlikely this will help you, and mostly because it's Christmas.
Quarterbacks
Brian Brohm - Assuming Brohm will not only be making his first NFL start in relief of the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards, he'll be taking his first NFL snap. Expect it to be ugly and mistake filled. There is no value here. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Matt Ryan - Ryan has been somewhat of a fantasy disappointment this year. He's already thrown one more touchdown pass this year (in 12 games) than he did in his rookie season, but overall, his performance isn't what fantasy owners were hoping for. His yards per game and yards per attempt numbers are down, and he never really took that next step this year. He'll again be a nice sleeper option next year. Wait until then to start him again. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Running Backs
Fred Jackson - Jackson put together a nice all-around game last week (80 yards rushing, 32 yards receiving, 108 return yards) and had a touchdown taken off the board because of penalty. With Brohm under center, expect the Bills to rely as heavily on the running game as possible. Jackson will again get a ton of touches, and should have some solid success against Atlanta's 20th ranked run defense. Verdict: Start 'Em in all leagues
Marshawn Lynch - A week after his most productive rushing day of the season, Lynch had just 8 carries for 25 yards against the Patriots. Right now, Jackson is the man with Lynch getting roughly a third of the carries. Look elsewhere if you're still alive and actually contemplating starting Lynch: Verdict: Sit 'Em
Jason Snelling - The big guy makes for an excellent start this week against the 32nd ranked rush defense in Buffalo. With Michael Turner on the shelf after re-aggravating his ankle injury, Snelling looks like a good bet for 15-20 touches. He's put up solid numbers when given the majority of the touches this year, so expect something similar to what he's produced thus far. Look for around 100 total yards and a touchdown or two. He's a great flex play this week. Verdict: Start 'Em in all leagues
Jerious Norwood - The speedy back hasn't had much of an impact this year since returning from injury. He'll get some touches, but isn't much of an option unless you are super desperate. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Wide Receivers
Terrell Owens - With Brohm starting, Owens has little to no value. If he catches any passes this week, I'll be surprised. Expect Perry Fewell and Alex Van Pelt to look for creative, simple ways for Brohm to get Owens the ball. I'm not sure I trust Brohm's ability to get that done though. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Lee Evans - Evans has even less value than Owens. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Roddy White - White, despite having somewhat of a down season, will always be on my must-start list. He should surpass 1000 yards on the season this week and could be in for a huge day when matched up against Reggie Corner. I expect White to have a great day, and you should too. Verdict: Start 'Em
Michael Jenkins - Jenkins is a mediocre real life wide receiver. He's rather useless as a fantasy wide receiver. Don't be surprised if he has a nice game, just don't bank on it. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Tight Ends
Shawn Nelson - Someday. Maybe someday. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Tony Gonzalez - Gonzo's numbers are down in his first year with Atlanta, but he's still having a very good year. He still has a good chance of reaching 90 receptions and 1000 yards again for this season. He's another guy you should be confident starting every week, especially this one. Verdict: Start 'Em
Kickers
Rian Lindell - I don't think the Bills will have enough scoring opportunities for Lindell to even be considered worthy of a fantasy start. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Matt Bryant - I couldn't remember who replaced Jason Elam, but it's the veteran Bryant. He has four field goals in three games, so he hasn't exactly lit it up, but could be in line for his best day as a Falcon. The Falcons will be able to move the ball and should control the ball and the clock for most of the game. Bryant is a nice sleeper kicker this week. I'm sure you have been riding a better option though. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Defense/Special Teams
Buffalo D/ST - The Bills defense played quite well against Tom Brady and the Patriots last week, but didn't have a strong fantasy day. They'll have their moments this week, especially if Matt Ryan continues floating passes high, but aren't worth the start. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Atlanta D/ST - I'd start this unit if I were still alive in my leagues. With Brohm taking his first NFL snaps, expect him to be blitzed and harassed every time he drops back. There will be sacks and there will likely be a few turnovers. I also wouldn't be shocked if this unit pitches a shutout against the Brohm-lead Bills. Verdict: Start 'Em
******
That's it for this year, folks. I hope you enjoyed reading this each week as much as I did writing it. Good luck to everyone still alive in their leagues. I can't wait until next (fantasy) season, already! Enjoy the day and the games this weekend. Merry Christmas everyone!
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Advice needed:
R. Williams at Was or H. Nicks at Car or D. Henderson at TB?
Jackson or A. Bradshaw at Car?
"Hold ya chin up...nuh nuh nuh...gone" -Marshawn Lynch-
Ricky Williams by a mile
He’s running hog wild at the end of this season. I rode him to a league championship.
Nicks isn’t a bad play but Henderson is way too risky.
Mmmph rrgh prrmf! - someone with his mouth gagged
I wish I had the ability to sit Henderson. Stud he is not.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Dec 24, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
Never Roy Williams
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
I go Henderson. Bucs secondary stinks.
"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
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by MattRichWarren on Dec 24, 2009 10:36 AM EST up reply actions
Who are your other receivers?
You shouldn’t have to choose between those two! I’d take White.
If Brohm starts, definitely ATL’s D. If not, it’s a toss up, but I’d probably still go with Atlanta….
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Huge week for me.
Championship game in both leagues. I was complaining about the 1st pick overall (esp considering how teams have limited Purple Jesus’ production), but I deftly took wise QBs: McNabb in one, Manning in another.
I’m coming for you, Jason-From-Ohio…as long as Manning plays!
Grr, start him, or roll the dice with Carson Palmer?
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Dec 24, 2009 11:40 AM EST reply actions
Palmer isnt a bad option......
Cinci is still playing for number 2 overall in playoff seedings.
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Dec 24, 2009 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
I know, it’s a tough situation. You can’t sit Manning, i’d say even if he plays only 30 min. But i’ve never played for a championship and i’d be dejected if I couldn’t compete because Manning was taken out (he wants no part of it, apparently).
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Dec 24, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
Anybody knows if theres a stud LT comming out of the draft next year??
What do you all think about drafting QB in the first round, there are some really intresting options.
This has nothing to do with fantasy football.
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
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by Brian Galliford on Dec 24, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
Actually Brian, it does. As a Bills fan, it’s a bit of a fantasy for many people thinking about a stud LT actually suiting up for this team.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Dec 24, 2009 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
It’s the super bowl and I have D. Jackson, B. Marshall, Calvin Johnson, and Roddy White and can only start 2. Was thinking Jackson and White.
I’d steer clear of White. While McGee and Byrd are done, the Bills secondary as a whole seems to play great.
I’d probably go with Jackson and Marshall, maybe Johnson (who I have to start).
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Dec 24, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
Also who do you think I should start out of Steven Jackson, Jerome Harrison, and Snelling? Can only start 2.
Sit Harrion. Do not count on any Cleveland back. Snelling is the only healthy back in ATL, and he’s going against our beloved Bills.
I have an awesome stable of backs in both leagues which makes my desicions difficult:
Yahoo:
Purple Jesus
Rashard Mendenhall
Jamaal Charles
F Jax
Forsett
(Ronnie brown until IR)
Rumblings Premiere League:
Purple Jesus
Ray Rice (STUD)
Laurence Maroney
Forsett
Snelling
Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.
"Am I a hero? I really can't say, but yes - I am."
by TheAfghanTwilight on Dec 24, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
how did you get the number one pick in TWO leagues??
"you just have to know there's always going to be adversity. None of these games are going to be easy. Nothing will be given to us" - Paul Posluszny
I'm also in the championship game
I am starting Frank Gore and Maurice Morris and Snelling. It kills me to start Snelling but I need a big game from him if I am to have any chance.
Better play between Maurice Morris and Ahmad Bradshaw in a standard league?
Morris plays @ SF and Bradshaw is home against Carolina
And get this situation I’ve got. I’m in a ppr league that also gives a point for every 20 return yards. I’m starting Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles, but I’ve got a long list of candidates for a flex spot. Matt Forte home vs. Minnesota, Mendenhall vs. Baltimore and a guy who fits the settings pretty well in Darren Sproles @ Tennessee. I’ve got LeSean McCoy and Felix Jones too, but won’t consider.
In the same league, I’ve got Rivers @ TEN and Warner against STL. Settings are a little goofy with -3 for INTs, -1 per sack, -1 for a fumble and another -2 if they lose the fumble. It’s a point per 20 yards passing and the full 6 for a TD.
I know that the best answer probably involves research due to the odd settings, but I suck at these decisions and would probably go with some confident sounding gut based decisions.
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I'd say no to Forte
He has been a huge dissappointment for me and I finally removed him from my lineup. The Vikings are going to put up points and the Bears will resort to throwing the ball and Forte’s number go in the tank once that happens. He is not involved in the passing or catch up game.
I sat Morris last week and regretted it. He is the only game in town in Detroit and is involved in the passing game. He seems like a safe bet.

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