Strength of schedule, it's pretty important come draft day

by kaisertown on Dec 28, 2009 11:24 PM EST

Here are the things to keep an eye on this sunday for those who want to follow the Bills draft spot all day instead of just waiting until next monday and checking it out after the dust settles.

These teams are all a lock to pick ahead of Buffalo (I didn't bother to check the SOS for these teams, so no clue what order they will pick in outside their records):

St. Louis - 1-14
Detroit - 2-13
Kansas City - 3-12
Tampa Bay - 3-12

There are two four win teams (Cleveland and Washington). Buffalo needs a lot of help to pick in front of them and I'll ignore them for now, cause I doubt they win on Sunday. There are a few other five win teams that will be the focus of this post. Seatlle, Oakland and maybe Chicago who is currently beating Minnesota as I type this up. Chicago also plays Detroit next week, so I feel pretty safe assuming they get a win and draft behind the Bills if the Brohm led team doesn't win on Sunday. On a positive note, just like last year, a win in week 17 probably won't cause the Bills to drop more than a couple picks in the draft.

For Buffalo to pick ahead of Seattle:

They could make it easy and beat Tennessee at home sunday. I did strength of schedule by adding up all the wins that each teams opponents had and didn't bother doing the division to get a percentage. Working with a whole number and then adding opponent wins as they happen is the easiest way to follow along. Buffalo currently has 124 opponent wins and Seatlle, who played both Minnesota and Chicago will have the exact same number of opponents wins after tonight's game. So whichever team has more opponents win this sunday will get the tiebreaker.

The Bills and Seahawks both play a common opponent on Sunday and do it because both of their divisions play(ed) the AFC South. So the outcomes for those teams don't mean anything ... except for the Texans who play the Jets. And that brings us to the quickest way for Buffalo to get the advantage and it's an easy one for Bills fans to get behind. Cheer against the division! Since Buffalo played those teams twice, they count double against the SOS. Here are the non-common opponents that played both Buffalo and Seatlle, who they play this upcoming weekend and who we want to win bolded. So the teams that have played Seattle are bold and the teams that Buffalo played are not bolded:

Seattle:
San Fran @ St. Louis - automatic 2 out of four additional wins
Arizona vs Green Bay - Seattle played both, so it's an automatic 1 win, hopefully two if AZ wins
Chicago @ Detroit - automatic one win and one loss
Minnesota vs. NYG
Dallas vs. Philly

Buffalo:
New England @ Houston - automatic one win and one loss, with one loss available if Houston wins
NYJ vs. Cincinnati
Miami vs. Pittsburgh
New Orleans @ Carolina - automatic one win and one loss
Kansas City @ Denver

Both:
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay - Both teams played Tampa, but there's one w/l up for grabs for Buffalo depending on Atlanta
Cleveland vs. Jacksonville - both teams played Jax

So Seattle already has 4 wins and 4 losses added to their SOS regardless of some outcomes. They've got another three possible wins. Since Buffalo is looking to add losses while Seattle gains wins, we need to cheer for common opponents playing uncommon ones which looks like a draw as both Atlanta and Jacksonville should be big favorites. Counting the games with opponents common to Seattle, Buffalo has four possible wins and four possible losses, but could also have as many as 8 additional losses in their direction. Feel free to speculate on whether or not our division rivals can win and whether or not Buffalo can end up with an easier SOS than Seattle.

To pick before Oakland:

The Raiders have 125 wins so far and play against the Ravens on sunday. Non-common opponents and who they play on Sunday:

Oakland:
San Diego vs. Washington - Oak played both teams, so one win and one loss is settled
Kansas City @ Denver - automatic two wins and two losses
NYG @ Minnesota
Philadelphia @ Dallas - played both teams

Similiar list as before for the Bills:
New England @ Houston
Miami vs. Pittsburgh
New Orleans @ Carolina - automatic one win and one loss
Atlanta @ Tampa - another win and loss
Tennessee @ Seattle - One more reason to cheer on Seattle

Both:
Cleveland vs. Jacksonville - both played the Browns, Buffalo played Jax, go Cleveland
Cincinnati @ NYJ - both teams played the Jets and Oakland also played Cincy. So the games a wash for Oakland, while it counts double for Buffalo.

So, Oakland already has five wins and five losses coming this weekend. The only games that can change their SOS are a likely San Diego win, a tough to predict NY vs. Minny game and a likely Cleveland loss. Due to their divisional games, Buffalo's final SOS is much more difficult to predict.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Comments

I hope that made sense, I know it gets a little complicated. For a prediction, I’ll guess that:

Buffalo’s 124 opponent wins ends up at 132 after this weekend.

I think that Chicago wins next week if they don’t win tonight and Washington and Cleveland both lose (and it’d be tough to catch either with SOS anyways).

I’ll predict that Seattle and Oakland also lose pushing them into a three way SOS breaking tie with the Bills. I hate to say it, but I ended up guessing that Seattle also ends up with 132 opponent wins which would lead to a coin flip. It’s really going to be that close. I’ve also got Oakland’s opponents going 8-8 this weekend, which gives them a SOS that’s just one game more difficult than Buffalo and leaves them drafting behind the Bills. Seriously, every game matters that much.

I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute

by kaisertown on Dec 28, 2009 11:45 PM EST reply actions

Nice work kaiser

Won’t Indy’s 14 wins add a significant chunk to the Bills’ 124 opponent wins? Seattle already has that 14 factored into their total, correct?

Or did I misread this and you had already factored in next week’s opponent?

Again, good job. Go Seattle, Chicago and Oakland!!

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Dec 28, 2009 11:46 PM EST reply actions

Indy and the other teams week 17 opponents are already factored in. All that is unaccounted for is how week 17 goes.

by kaisertown on Dec 28, 2009 11:53 PM EST up reply actions

Ok thanks

I figured you had accounted for that…

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Dec 29, 2009 12:52 AM EST up reply actions

And there’s the Bears win. It’s almost definitely a three horse race for picks 7-9.

by kaisertown on Dec 29, 2009 12:04 AM EST reply actions

We can still pick 10th. Bills win and Bears loss.

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.

by MattRichWarren on Dec 29, 2009 8:58 AM EST up reply actions

And we can still technically pick above Washington or Cleveland, but would need fairly unrealistic amounts of help. Buffalo would basically be 5 games behind those two teams from a total opponents wins standpoint. So, not only would Buffalo need Cleveland or Washington to win, they’d probably need the entire AFC East to lose and some luck in the form of AFC North or NFC East wins (depending on whether Washington or Cleveland won). They’re still not mathematically out of it though.

by kaisertown on Dec 29, 2009 9:08 AM EST up reply actions

I didn’t even do that in my permutations in my draft order post since it was so unrealistic. The Colts are going to bring so much to the Bills’ strength of schedule that the Browns and Redskins, even if they did win, couldn’t pass the Bills.

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.

by MattRichWarren on Dec 29, 2009 11:05 AM EST up reply actions

The 16 teams that Buffalo played have a combined 124 wins. Washington and Cleveland are both at 120 wins. Those numbers count Indy and the Browns and Skins’ week 17 opponents. Considering that Buffalo would have to lose, the’re essentially at 125 wins. So they’d need a ton of help, but Buffalo could pick in front of them. The Bills would probably need the Dolphins, Pats and Jets to all lose. If that can somehow happen, then Buffalo’s SOS could be worse than the Browns or Redskins.

by kaisertown on Dec 29, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions

We can

If the Jets lose, they lose to Cincy which would give the Browns two more wins on the SOS. If Miami loses they loses to Pittsburgh, again two wins for the Browns SOS. If the Patriots lose they play the Texans which would give us one more win on SOS (but better than 2). So even if the entire AFC East loses we only gain three wins on the Browns.

We’d have to hope for the NFC South to all win, too, but the Falcons and Bucs are playing and so are the Panthers and Saints so it’s two guaranteed win on our SOS.

The other division we played was the AFC South where the Colts get a win over us, Houston gets a win over the Patriots, Jacksonville would lose to Browns in this scenario, and so the only other variable is Tennessee losing to the Seahawks.

Then we played the Browns (which it wouldn’t matter) and the Chiefs. The Browns played a last place schedule like we did so anything the Chiefs do will also be applied to the Browns.

So the Bills can’t pick ahead of the Browns.

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.

by MattRichWarren on Dec 29, 2009 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

We can't pick ahead of the Browns.

We can only gain four wins on them and they are currently up five.

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.

by MattRichWarren on Dec 29, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

Redskins

If the AFC East all loses (Bills SOS gain one win thanks to Colts beating Bills), NFC South plays each other (two automatic wins), the Chiefs lose, AFC South loses (one automatic win as Browns play Jags, one win as Texans beat Patriots) we gain 5 wins on our SOS. That puts us at 129 overall wins.

The Redskins would then have to gain at least nine opponent wins. The Eagles and Cowboys play each other which is an automatic two wins. Minnesota loses to the Giants giving the Redskins one more win. The Skins played the AFC West so Oakland beats Baltimore gives them one and Denver beating the Chiefs gives them one (remember we need the Chiefs to lose). They also played the NFC West and San Fran and St. Louis go this week giving the Skins an automatic win. Seattle beating Tenn. gives them one more and then the Cardinals knock off Green Bay giving the Skins yet another win. If Detroit, another Skins opponent, beats the Bears it’s another and since we played Tampa that’s a wash. That adds up to nine.

So if every single game goes the Bills way they can end with the same strength of schedule as the Redskins. Then we’d have a coin flip since they are in different conferences. Man that would be nuts. My math might be wrong, too.

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.

by MattRichWarren on Dec 29, 2009 12:07 PM EST up reply actions

Stop the presses! If Minnesota loses to the Giants they gain two wins! That means they have a higher strength of schedule than the Bills and would pick after them. Just caught that. Wow. I mathematically proved it.

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.

by MattRichWarren on Dec 29, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions

So where are we gunna pick?

"Hold ya chin up...nuh nuh nuh...gone" -Marshawn Lynch-

by billsoferie on Dec 29, 2009 8:36 AM EST reply actions

7-10 somewhere. :-)

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.

by MattRichWarren on Dec 29, 2009 8:58 AM EST up reply actions

In a strange way, it largely depends on how the division does this week. Each time an AFC East team loses, it makes Buffalo’s SOS worse and that makes it more likely we pick ahead of Oakland or Seattle. If the AFC East goes 0-3, Buffalo probably picks 7th. If it goes 3-0, we’re picking 9th. If it goes 1-2 or 2-1, it’ll be very close.

by kaisertown on Dec 29, 2009 9:11 AM EST up reply actions

That's assuming we lose to the Colts backups....

I have a feeling they win this meaningless game, 6-3.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Dec 29, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions

PAINTER v. BROHM

ugh……

They are hard to play but not hard to beat.
- Mike Lombardi on the Buffalo Bills

by Sluss88 on Dec 29, 2009 1:52 PM EST reply actions

Painful...

Where did Painter play his college ball anyway?

by gfbillsfan on Dec 29, 2009 9:39 PM EST up reply actions

Purdue. He was pretty well thought of early in his college career, but never put things together and put up the big numbers that other Purdue QBs have (like Brees and Orton)

by kaisertown on Dec 29, 2009 9:46 PM EST up reply actions