Draft Order: Week 16 (Bills pick 8th)

by MattRichWarren on Dec 29, 2009 8:53 AM EST

The NFL draft order is first determined by the Super Bowl contestants who pick 32 and 31. The playoff teams are then slotted by record from 21-30 (which is a change from past years). The other 20 teams are slotted by record. The first tie breaker in the draft is strength of schedule followed by conference win-loss. (Check out kaiser's fanpost for more on that.)

If the NFL draft were held today, the top half of the NFL draft would be as follows: (+ clinched a spot picking ahead of the Bills)

1. Rams+ (1-14, 52.5% opponent winning percentage)
2. Lions+ (2-13, 51.7% opponent winning percentage)
3. Chiefs+ (3-12, 52.1% opponent winning percentage)
4. Buccaneers+ (3-12, 55.8% opponent winning percentage)
5. Redskins (4-11, 50.0% opponent winning percentage)
6. Browns+ (4-11, 50.4% opponent winning percentage)
7. Seahawks (5-10, 47.5% opponent winning percentage)
8. Bills (5-10, 51.7% opponent winning percentage)
9. Raiders (5-10, 52.1% opponent winning percentage)
10. Broncos from Bears (6-9, 49.2% opponent winning percentage) [Jay Cutler]

Because the strength of schedule shifts when the Bills encounter the Colts this week the Bills can only pick 7-10 in very specific events:

- To pick 7th the Bills lose and the Seahawks and Raiders both win.
- To pick 8th the Bills lose and either the Seahawks and Raiders lose.
- To pick 9th the Bills lose and both Seahawks and Raiders lose.
- To pick 10th the Bills win and Bears lose.

Bills host the Colts at 1 PM
Seahawks host Titans at 4:15 PM
Raiders host Ravens at 4:15 PM
Bears go to Lions at 1:00 PM

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So I took the time to look at the strength of schedule possibilities and the Bills could end up picking 6th. Here's how:

If the AFC East all loses (Bills SOS gain one win thanks to Colts beating Bills), NFC South plays each other (two automatic wins), the Chiefs lose, AFC South loses (one automatic win as Browns play Jags, one win as Texans beat Patriots) we gain 5 wins on our SOS. That puts the Bills at 129 overall wins.

The Redskins would then have to gain at least nine opponent wins. The Eagles and Cowboys play each other which is an automatic two wins. Minnesota loses to the Giants giving the Redskins two more wins. The Skins played the AFC West so Oakland beats Baltimore gives them one and Denver beating the Chiefs gives them one (remember we need the Chiefs to lose). They also played the NFC West and San Fran and St. Louis go this week giving the Skins an automatic win. Seattle beating Tenn. gives them one more and then the Cardinals knock off Green Bay giving the Skins yet another win. If Detroit, another Skins opponent, beats the Bears it’s another and since we played Tampa we want them to beat the Falcons to give the Redskins another win. That adds up to eleven to put the Redskins at 131 overall wins.

So if virtually every single game goes the Bills way they can end with a worse SOS than the Redskins.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Comments

Probably it will be the 9th pick, as SEA loses to TEN because of CJ2k and OAK loses to BAL as they want to get into the playoffs.

That’s sad, but with the draft class being as deep as it is, it’s okay.

"What in the hell have I gotten myself into?" - Bruce Smith HOF

by Chriz on Dec 29, 2009 9:57 AM EST reply actions

seems like we cant get away from 7-9........................

sounds so very familiar…….

Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons

by norcaliangelsfan on Dec 29, 2009 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Dude

Your getting a Dell!

Buffalo, that's where it's at baby. - Adam 'Pacman' Jones

by silverstreak3k on Dec 29, 2009 11:30 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Its like if we win we lose and if we lose well...we lose

"Hold ya chin up...nuh nuh nuh...gone" -Marshawn Lynch-

by billsoferie on Dec 29, 2009 11:48 AM EST reply actions

Thx MRW for investing the time. How complex is that…wow. So, realistically, there is zero chance that we pick higher than 7th.

"What in the hell have I gotten myself into?" - Bruce Smith HOF

by Chriz on Dec 29, 2009 12:28 PM EST reply actions

No there’s a less-than-one percent chance. :-)

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.

by MattRichWarren on Dec 29, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

It was fun playing with you guys this year, I got lucky.

Nothing left to say...

by keysh67 on Dec 29, 2009 8:02 PM EST up reply actions

The KC Win is going to cost us...

Really the Kansas City win is going to cost us one of the two top QBs if not the top one, if we were 4-11 we’d be picking before the Browns, Redskins & Raiders – the only teams IMO that will be pursuing a QB in the first round.

The Rams will take Suh, I’d be extremely surprised if they didn’t. Spag is a D-Line guy, a graduate of the Jim Johnson school of pressure. I really can’t see him passing up the next “Warren Sapp”. Besides it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if they pursued David Carr in the off season. Lions, Chiefs & Bucs are committed at the QB position.

Nothing left to say...

by keysh67 on Dec 29, 2009 8:01 PM EST reply actions

As Matt pointed out to me earlier, Buffalo would still be picking behind Cleveland and Washington anyways (unless they win this weekend). So if Buffalo loses this weekend, that KC loss is probably going to cost Buffalo one or two slots in the draft and nothing more. Now that could still end up being a huge difference as Okung, a QB or Gerald McCoy could (and probably will) go right in front of Buffalo, but that KC win is probably the difference between Buffalo picking 7th and picking 8th or 9th.

I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute

by kaisertown on Dec 29, 2009 8:12 PM EST up reply actions

I hate to suggest throwing in the towel but the KC win just seemed extremely useless to me and all it did was cost us big time in the draft positioning. I thought because our SOS was inferior to theirs that if we were at 4-11 then we would be ahead of them in the draft? How does that work??

The good news is I really liked the little that I saw of Brohm, no line & no game plan, he looked pretty good to me. If the Redskins drop Campbell, I could see us pursuing him. Let Campbell & Brohm battle it out in camp.

I look at the teams ahead of us and I can easily see McClain dropping to us, which would be great! Something that I find odd is that McNeil (Chargers) is still not extended, which leads me to believe that we could have a chance in the off season.

Nothing left to say...

by keysh67 on Dec 29, 2009 8:33 PM EST up reply actions

The Bills have a stronger strength of schedule than Cleveland and Washington. If you combine all the wins of each team that Buffalo played, counting the division twice, then it’s 124 wins. Basically, the teams that Buffalo played average a 7.75-7.25 record. If Buffalo had lost to KC, then the Chiefs would have another win and it’d be 125 wins. Cleveland and Washington are both at 120, so it’d be near impossible (I think Matt told me earlier that it is impossible for Cleveland) for Buffalo to have an easier SOS and pick infront of either of those teams.

I’m not sure how the SOS works for the Cheifs, but I guess it’s possible that Buffalo would pick ahead of them had they lost that game. So maybe it would have cost a game more than I thought.

Buffalo is pretty much in a dead heat with Seattle and Oakland’s SOS. So it’s possible that Buffalo will still pick ahead of those teams anyways. It could actually all work out so that Buffalo’s draft spot would be the exact same as it would have been had they lost to KC. It’ll probably cost them a couple spots though.

by kaisertown on Dec 29, 2009 8:50 PM EST up reply actions

KC game....

I hate to suggest throwing in the towel but the KC win just seemed extremely useless to me and all it did was cost us big time in the draft positioning.

Like we’ve said numerous times, no team is going to openly throw in the towel with a month to play…or even a week to play. These guys are fighting for their jobs, their careers, their future, from the coaches to the last player on the team. You can wish for them to try to lose all you want, but it just isn’t something that an NFL team would do.

McNeil hasn’t been extended, but doesn’t really need to be. Without a new CBA, he’ll be a RFA, and the Chargers will just slap him with the highest tender if a long term deal isn’t agreed upon. He’s not going anywhere.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Dec 29, 2009 8:54 PM EST up reply actions

UH.......unless you are the Colts that is........

no team is going to openly throw in the towel with a month to play…or even a week to play.

jerks.

by norcaliangelsfan on Dec 29, 2009 10:29 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, that situation is completely different

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Dec 30, 2009 2:04 AM EST up reply actions

No Doubt.

I hope the Colts lose in the first playoff game.

I was so hoping they would go undefeated and win it, just to see the 72 Dolphins champagne still on Ice, and the sad looks on their face.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Dec 30, 2009 9:33 PM EST up reply actions

I understand Polian. The focus is the Superbowl and it should be. The amount of money that is generated for the Colts resulting from a Superbowl is way superior to any perfect season record.

The absolute last thing they need is Peyton getting injured and Garçon & Addai are banged up so resting them a bit is just smart management on his part, I applaud the guy for sticking to his guns on this one.

As a fan I am disappointed but who cares, Polian is looking at the bigger picture.

Nothing left to say...

by keysh67 on Dec 31, 2009 2:26 AM EST up reply actions

Manning.

He gets rid of the ball so quick.

I think the injury thing with Peyton is a bad point.

Garcon and Addai, that’s different, I think they screwed the pooch pulling Manning last week. I hope they lose in the first playoff game for pulling Manning, I would have understood, Addai (especially him), Garcon, Freeney, but not Manning.

Seeing him on the sidelines with his chinstrap on, he wanted it, I hope they lose for not giving him his chance to do what no one has done before, going perfect in a 16 game RS schedule and winning the superbowl. Peyton could have done it, and they robbed him of his chance to do it.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Dec 31, 2009 3:23 AM EST up reply actions

I wouldn't have felt this way.

If the Colts hadn’t already won a superbowl with Peyton.

But since they have, go for greatness, a perfect season, is so much better than a 2nd superbowl without perfection.

It was the chance to be the best ever!

Where the 2009 Colts wold be the ones keeping the champagne on ice each year instead of Shula and Mercury Morris,

I hope they lose for this.

That’s what they deserve,

Even if they win, it’s a hollow victory.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Dec 31, 2009 3:31 AM EST up reply actions

And when I say "Hollow Victory"

It’s because they could have been the best ever.

There are teams who won more than 2 superbowls, there is only 1 who completed a perfect season, and the colts squandered the opportunity to be the first to do it in the modern era, I hope SD destroys them for it.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Dec 31, 2009 3:34 AM EST up reply actions

They pulled Jeff Saturday cause he’s banged up. They pulled their LT cause he’s banged up. That’s a recipe for getting Manning banged up so they pulled him too.

"Play like hell and win." - Perry Fewell
Your daily source for Buffalo Bills information.

by MattRichWarren on Jan 1, 2010 10:52 AM EST up reply actions