Buffalo Rumblings Authors Mock, Take Three
by MattRichWarren on Feb 11, 2009 7:00 AM EST
in Buffalo Bills Opinion
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PrintUp next we have the newbie mock! As has been explained in the first two Buffalo Rumblings Author mocks, with this mock draft we were supposed to draft for our Buffalo Bills based on the current Bills roster with no assumptions made about free agency. My list will certainly look different now than it will after free agency based largely on the lack of starting LB and C.
Disclaimer: I think I watched maybe two hours of college football this year. I went to a SUNY school with no football team and never really got into college football. This is my best shot.
Guys whose 2008 spots I decided to fill due to lack of performance or free agency:
- DE Chris Kelsay
- OLB Angelo Crowell - UFA
- C Melvin Fowler - UFA
- C Duke Preston - UFA (Preston could be back as a short-term starter and longer-term backup)
- TE Robert Royal
- FB Corey McIntyre - UFA
Round 1: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
I really, really waffled between taking a LB and DE here. Which could have the greater impact this year? Is Chris Ellis capable of stepping up and delaying the need for immediate DE help? It was then put to me thusly - Keith Ellison or Chris Kelsay starting - which do you prefer? (Thanks Brian and Eric.) Going into last year I would have said Kelsay but after this year Ellison wasn't a liability although unspectacular. I go with the Bills highest ranked DE left on the board. Today it happens to be Brian Orakpo. Next week it could be Aaron Maybin or Everette Brown. You never know. It needs to be one of them though. (If Aaron Curry falls I will secretly hope we take him here.)
Round 2: Clay Matthews, OLB, USC
I originally had Max Unger in here but when you see my third round pick you'll see why I passed for now. Some people have Matthews as a low first round pick but if he can get to the Bills they should make him their starting SAM LB. I don't know a whole lot about him (or college players in general) but from the reports I read he has good speed and athleticism. He has a good drive and is a motor kind of guy, just what OBD likes.
Round 3: Eric Wood, C, Louisville
The Bills will have no center on their roster once free agency begins. I would like to see them bring in a vet to start and a draft pick to sit and learn. Even if they don't bring in a vet, Wood has the potential to start on day one. I wouldn't have a huge problem with them bringing back Preston and starting him until the bye week or something, then sticking the kid in there while relegating Preston to a spot I think he does well - interior line depth. Wood started every game at Louisville and was named to the All-Big East team this year. His name has been rising on draft boards (Brian had us taking him in the second round) but I will keep him in the third round for now. Wood may come off the board before we pick, but I sure hope not.
Round 4: Shawn Nelson, TE, Southern Miss
I'd love to see Chase Coffman sitting here but it probably won't happen. I expect Coffman to go in the third. I'm taking Nelson for his ability to get upfield. We have a pair of Dereks who can block and catch the short routes; I want a seam stretcher so we can go two TE, one receiver, Marshawn, and a FB or Freddy on the field. Then we can run or pass out of that formation to all sides of the field and be a little less transparent. Nelson's stock is also rising with conflicting reports saying he's anywhere from the third to the sixth-best TE in the draft. I hope most teams have him labeled low so we can nab him.
Round 5: Randy Phillips, S, Miami (FL)
Phillips used to be a corner so he should have the swagger and ball-hawking skills we desperately need in the back of the secondary. Keep Whitner and Scott starting and rotate this kid in there and see what he can do. He may be the starting FS for Buffalo in 2010. I can definitely see the Bills taking Josh Pinkard from USC here but he's been so injury-plagued that I don't want to take the chance. Anyone here for USC safety Kevin Ellison (Keith's brother) as our new strong safety?
Round 6: Brett Helms, C, LSU
I had Ian Johnson (RB Boise State) here until I realized that we don't have a backup center or guard. (As I said earlier I am an advocate for resigning Preston, even if it's as an interior backup.) We need someone to come in and back up Wood. (Remember we are making no assumptions on free agency and we have backups in place for RB with Oman and OT with Pennington.) I know nothing about this guy but he is in the ballpark for that part of the draft. This pick will change if/when they sign any center.
Round 7: Tony Fiammetta, FB, Syracuse
I want Lorenzo Neal to come in here and clean some clocks ala Sam Gash. If that doesn't happen give me Fiammetta any day. He'll be a great lead blocker. The Bills could wait and see if one of their fullback prospects is undrafted but I won't risk it and I take the dozer from ‘Cuse in the seventh round.
*****
I would have liked to have drafted Johnson, another OL player and a big space-eating DT but with this being a pre-free agency draft, I went with this. I could have put a DT in there instead of Phillips or Nelson but I didn't. People will yell at me and say I'm building from the outside in but I think doing that this year is short-sighted. Wood solidifies the O Line and the D line gets a new pass rusher. I am comfortable with Stroud, Williams, and Johnson with McCargo or without him. Maybe they sign an Undrafted F/A DT and put him on the practice squad or replace McCargo. The O-Line has some of the biggest contracts on the team already. This draft adds playmakers and starters at positions we need both right now. What do you guys think?
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If I’m being honest, this mock is a bit too ideal to be considered in any way realistic.
There is absolutely no way that Shawn Nelson will be available in the fourth round; I sincerely doubt that he makes it out of round two. I still maintain that Wood, Unger and perhaps even Antoine Caldwell will be second-round picks – it all depends on Alex Mack, because he’ll start a run on centers in this draft.
I don’t like the way Matthews fits into our defense. I suppose it could be finagled, but there are about a dozen linebacker prospects that I have rated ahead of Matthews.
I also highly doubt that Fiammetta will be available in the seventh round; at worst, I think he’s a sixth-round pick.
Phillips does nothing for me; the only reason he’s listed in any capacity is because of the school he went to. He doesn’t have enough upstairs to last long in the league.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Feb 11, 2009 8:27 AM EST reply actions
Man Brian......
trashing my optimism? That’s all I have man! :-)
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Feb 11, 2009 8:53 AM EST up reply actions
Anyways to respond...
Shawn Nelson is ranked by some sites as the 6th best TE in the draft and the 130th best player available, etc. Will he be there? Probably not. Could he be realistically? Absolutely. I’ll dig a little depper for some guys for version 2.0 if it will make you feel less ideal.
Back when I started putting this together it was Mack and Luigis. Those were the two guys at Center. Now It’s Mack, Unger, Wood, Caldwell, Luigis, etc. Let’s let the dust settle a little and see who is rising and falling. After the Senior Bowl, Wood is definately rising to be a probably late 2nd round pick.
I don’t know alot about Matthews as I said but he has good speed. What specifically makes him not fit in our defense? Just curious.
If Fiammetta is not on the board there are other FB prospects. I put him there because I know who he is. That’s the only reason boss. :-)
Phillips is one of those bust or boom prospects because if he is given his role and sucessfully achieves it, he can be a big contributor for us in subpackages. If you tell him to play deep zone and go after the ball, he can do that and come away with some picks. If you want him to play just off the line and take away the slant he can do that. Bryan Scott has a nitche in this defense, can’t Phillips?
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Feb 11, 2009 9:19 AM EST up reply actions
Matt,
Good job trying to find value and filling needs, but Brian is right about Wood, Nelson, and Fiammetta. Silde Wood up to 2nd, Nelson up to 3rd, and Fiammetta up to 6th round. You would have a few holes to fill in the 4th and 7th, but a much more realistic draft.
Teach your children about the four seasons: preseason, regular season, postseason, and off-season
V 2.0
After the combine and free agency we’ll see where these guys are going. Plus with these risers we’re bound to have fallers.
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Feb 11, 2009 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t know alot about Matthews as I said but he has good speed. What specifically makes him not fit in our defense? Just curious.
I just don’t like drafting guys for a scheme when they’d very obviously be more valuable in a different scheme. You don’t draft a guy to fill a hole, you draft a guy to maximize on his skills. Matthews is a 3-4 OLB in the mold of a Clint Sintim, for example. Both should play outside in a 3-4. Asking them to play the 4-3, where keys, gaps and the like are completely different, might not be the best idea.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Feb 11, 2009 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
Yes
He is Clay Matthews III. His dad is Clay Matthews jr. the former Browns LB, and his uncle was Bruce Matthews the standout lineman for the Oilers/Titans.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
Well if that's the case..
I would bet this kid knows a thing or two about tackle football, and schemes shouldn’t be a problem for him.
It isn’t understanding a scheme and the mental portion of it that he would have problems with. His best attribute is blitzing which we don’t do a ton of. His worst attribute is coverage which we would ask him to do a lot of. He has good speed, but doesn’t flip his hips that well and doesn’t change direction well either. Matthews is best moving forward and not sideline to sideline. That is why he isn’t a great fit in Buffalo.
Honestly, I think Matthews is more of a DE in a LBs body then anything else.
its a valid and true point
his biggest weakness is covering tight ends and running backs. His biggest strength is pass rushing and delivering the big hit.
Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.
I could certainly see him Strongside in a more agressive, blitz heavy scheme, like the Giants (assuming that there won’t be significant changes) and the Eagles. In fact, he would make a lot of sense to me at 29 to the Giants.
by PozDispenser on Feb 11, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
Ah, would it were so....
Brian: DE Orakpo, C Wood, TE Casey, DT Hill, LB Robinson, FB Collins, S T. Moore
Sireric: DE Brown, S W. Moore, C Wood, LB Holtzclaw, TE Pascoe, G Ohrnberger, DT Abdallah
MRW: DE Orakpo, LB Matthews, C Wood, TE Nelson, S Phillips, C Helms, FB Fiammetta
That would be a terrific draft for the Bills, MRW. Unfortunately it would go entirely against the nature of OBD to have such a fantastic weekend. I don’t see the stars aligning in such a way as for Buffalo to get Orakpo at aoo, Wood in the 2nd, Nelson in the 4th or Fiammetta in the 7th. I’m not even sure that Matthews will be there in the 2nd.
If you think MRW’s draft is too optimistic, wait until Saturday when my draft will bring balance to the Bills’ draft universe…by possibly being too pessimistic. Let’s just hope mine isn’t prognostic as well.
Wow...way to have a repetitive typo
It should have read, “…Orakpo at all, Wood…” as opposed to the vowel heavy and mysterious, “aoo”.
by Ron From NM on Feb 11, 2009 10:35 AM EST up reply actions
It is OK Ron,
I just assumed you were watching “hoop girl” as you were typing!!!!
Teach your children about the four seasons: preseason, regular season, postseason, and off-season
A lot of criticism so far on this post but I actually like this draft best
Orakpo doesn’t need to be talked about ,every knows the deal already.
Clay Matthews is a fantastic pick if you ask me. Matthews is not only a hard working player who is willing to play special teams all out but he has fantastic size in addition to his great speed. At 6’3 240 Matthews is jacked and when he hits the ball carrier he explodes into them. He is also a playmaker as his ability to deliver crushing blows often leads to fumbles and he is always chasing down the ball. Finally, with all our pass rushing troubles, here is a guy who has great pass rushing moves and is even being considered by some NFL teams to be the kind of guy that can play that hybrid DE/OLB role. Brian, I have no idea who these dozen linebackers you have going ahead of him are but I have about a half dozen. Brian Cushing, Aaron Curry, Rey Maualuga, Clint Sintim, James Laurinitis, Worell Williams, and Darry Beckwith. Clay Matthews is a beast, can pass rush, and he works hard. Sounds like a good fit to me.
I think you all are really starting to sound kind of funny to me with your center comments. First you all scream how Alex Mack isn’t good enough to be the #11 pick, then you say he’ll be picked up by the Vikings or Steelers at the end of round 1 and then it turns into Alex Mack is going to fall to round 2. Well if you are going to use that logic than Wood, Unger, Luigs, or Caldwell will be available in round 3. If Mack doesn’t go until round 2 we are going to get our second or third ranked center in round 3.
To say that Shawn Nelson won’t be there in round 4 is also misleading. You all seem to forget that our fourth round pick is only pick 107 or something like that. Each team has only four picks, how many are going to reach on a guy like Nelson any earlier than mid round 3? Let’s list the tight ends going before him. Brandon Pettigrew, Chase Coffman, Travis Beckum, James Casey, Jared Cook, and potentially John Phillips, Ryan Purvis, Bear Pascoe and Cornelius Ingram. Shawn Nelson could very well be available in round 4. I’d say only two of these guys go in round 1 and 2, and that is Pettigrew and MAYBE MAYBE Coffman. That leaves about 43 picks for teams to take Nelson over all those other guys before he falls to us in round 4. I think, barring a fantastic combine, he’ll be there.
Good mock MRW. I like it.
Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.
I think the reason that it has gotten so much criticism is because it is to much wishful thinking, which is why we would all like it so much. If I did a draft that looked like;
1 – Raji
2 – Orakpo
3 – Mack
4 – nelson
Everyone would say that is extreme wishful thinking but if it went down tha way everyone would love it best
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
If you’re going to that optimistic, sireric, don’t forget how we trade our 7th rounder for Fitzgerald, straight up…
John Madden told me 90% of the game was half-mental...
by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Feb 11, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
right but
what is so wishful about it? All three of you have Orakpo or Brown. So MRW is on par with you guys there. Clay Matthews is a projected 2nd – 3rd rounder, with a good combine he may sneak into late round 1, maybe. So MRW is ok there. You yourself had Wood going in the third, so MRW is on par with you there and as I pointed out Nelson is not head and shoulders above the tight end pack. He could very well be available in the early 4th. I don’t see how his is more wishful than anyone elses?
Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.
It’s not terribly over-optimistic but it is there. This could very well still go down. but compared to the first two drafts we’ve shown, it is more optimistic. Also who says that I didn’t have a little optimism in mine?
I have also written the word optimistic or some variant of it more than I think I ever have just in this one comment.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
hahaha
can we dig up the author mocks from last year to see if optimism prevailed?
Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.
Should be somewhere in this vicinity. All of them.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Feb 11, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
2008 author mocks
First four rounds
Brian – Limas Sweed WR, Jason Jones DE, Tyvon Branch CB, Gary Barnidge TE
Eric- Derrick Harvey DE, Reggie Smith DB, Josh Johnson QB, Earl Bennett WR
Jr – Sweed, Brandon Flowers DB, Dustin Keller TE, Owen Schmitt FB
K – Harvey, Antoine Cason DB, Jordy Nelson WR, Jermichael Finley TE
Real Draft – Leodis McKelvin CB, James Hardy WR, Chris Ellis DE, Reggie Corner CB
Haha, we were 0 for 4 in all four! To toot my own horn I had McKelvin as my first pick but other than that I was way way off too. I still think Brian’s pick of Jason Jones in the second round would have been ideal and Jr’s Owen Schmitt fullback pick.
Looks like optimism did not prevail as Cason went in the first, Nelson in the second, Flowers in the early second and Keller in the first.
Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.
Interesting....
Well at the very least we have a better chance of hitting some picks this year. We have more contributors now. :-) That’s just math.
Seriously though, don’t pull this draft out a year from now and say how stupid I was. This is pre-free agency and I fully expect one big need to be addressed by March 1. It could be Center, TE, DE or LB. I would anticipate Center and/or LB in the first couple of days of free agency.
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Feb 11, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
HAHAHA
no promises about pulling this out and saying how stupid you were! In all seriousness, I will be taking far more interest in the mocks post- FA. A lot will change (hopefully!) by then.
Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.
Those you can hold against me. :-)
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Feb 12, 2009 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
The over-optimism on Wood came from me. I don’t think he’ll be available in the third round come draft day. Forget about perceived value – Wood is the type of guy that some smart GM will pick up before the “experts” expect him to go.
As it stands now, Nelson’s one of the better athletes at the position. Athletes at TE are drafted before non-athletes, no matter the production, as a general rule. That’s why Jared Cook will go high as well. I consider Nelson a Round 2-3 value, and have for a while, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he went in the top half of the second round.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Feb 11, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't be shocked if Wood and Nelson are off the board before out 3rd round pick.
But I am the eternal optimist guys!
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Feb 11, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
Haha, please don’t take our criticism as you’re delusional or anything. It’s just a different philosophy in mocking. When I mock, I like the security of having a very good idea that the player I’m taking will be there. That’s why I so iffily picked Orakpo with my top pick.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Feb 11, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe it’s because I’m a bit of a pessimist, but I’ve always felt that optimism=delusional…
John Madden told me 90% of the game was half-mental...
by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Feb 11, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
boooooooooo
You can go around life being sad because nothing is going your way and get an ulcer.
Me? I’m an optimist. Things tend to go my way (except on my sports teams) so I have a birghter side of life outlook. I’ll never have high blood pressure without copious amounts of chicken wings and beer…. uh hold off on that. I’m not delusional. I like to think I am realistic about things from time to time.
I rarely get overinflated expectations. I didn’t expect a collapse this yer but knew it could happen. I’m not drinking some Kool-Aid guys.
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Feb 11, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
When did I say Mack is going to fall to the second?
I think he’s late first. With maybe one or two other centers taken in the 2nd round.
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Feb 11, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
I didnt mean you
I meant the community as a whole.
Kawika Mitchell is a leader. He will help this young team develop.
I agree with everyone that this draft is too optimistic, but at least your head is in the right spot. If you were to take out the names and just leave the positions, then I think this is about what the Bills should be thinking as far as filling holes independent of free agency.
exactly.
In any event, the draft is not my forte. If I get even the positions right I’ll be happy.
Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.
by MattRichWarren on Feb 11, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
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