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Josh Reed - MRW's response to Benjamin Salem

Hey guys.  I did a little digging on WR Josh Reed.  Ben Salem likes to get into knots over how bad Reed is.  I wanted my response to be as public as possible.  Here's Ben's comments about Reed after reading my "Bottom Ten Bang for the Dollar Bills" article. [Ed. note: the bold-faced text emphasis is mine, not Salem's]

I certainly think Royal, Reed, and Dockery belong on that list ahead of Whitner, Evans, and Denney (not that they were anything to write home about either)…Reed and Royal made just about the same as Whitner and Denney and they had to rank in the bottom third for their role on the team when compared to their peers while my guess is that Denney and Whitner were average for their roles on the team compared to their peers around the league. How many starting WRs in the NFL made close to 3 million last year and didn’t catch more than 1 TD pass or gain at least 600 yards like Reed? How many starting TEs in the NFL made more than 2 million and were outscored by their backups who played half as many snaps? I doubt many. What exactly did Dockery do well last year at more than 6 million a year? I think Denney, Whitner, and Evans came much closer to earning their salaries than those three stiffs.

This one's for you buddy.  :-)

Comparing him to the receiving leaders

Josh Reed ranked 46th in the league in receptions, 58th in yardage, caught balls for 36 first downs which he made 64% of the time he caught the ball.  Since those numbers include WRs and TEs, I think it's a fair assumption to say that Reed outgained many second receivers and caught more balls then them.  But instead of assuming I'll count those guys out for you....

Without TEs and RBs, comparing him to just receivers he was 36th in receptions, a far cry from "they had to rank in the bottom third for their role on the team when compared to their peers".  That actually places him better than most 2nd WRs.  (36 total minus 32 number one WRs crudely puts him as the 4th best 2nd WR though we know that is probably misleading.)  As for his yardage he was 49th among WRs, just ahead of #2 (or #1) WRs Dominic Hixon of the NYG, Bryant "Panda" Johnson of the 49ers, and Chad "Ocho Cinco" Johnson of the Bengals.

Comparing Reed to comparably paid receivers

Here are the cap figures and stats for the next 4 highest-paid WRs and the next 4 lowest-paid WRs from Josh Reed.

Player name (2008 Cap Number) - receptions, receiving yards, TDs

Marques Colston ($ 3,142,810) – 47 rec., 760 yards, 5 TD
Justin Gage ($ 3,128,480 ) – 34 rec., 651 yards, 6 TD
Joe Jurevicious ($ 3,062,500 ) – 50 rec., 614 yards, 3 TD
Reggie Brown ($ 2,960,708 ) – 18 rec., 252 yards, 1 TD (played 7 games)
Josh Reed (2.925M) 56 rec., 597 yards, 1 TD
Mike Furrey ($ 2,906,240) – 18 rec., 181 yards, 0 TD (7 games)
Michael Clayton ($ 2,856,947) – 38 rec., 484 yards, 1 TD
Javon Walker ($ 2,834,293) – 15 rec., 196 yards, 1 TD
Ernest Wilford ($ 2,505,640) – 3 rec., 25 yards, 0 TD

Conclusions

Can you at least think about not trashing the guy?  All he did this past year was be the most consistent pass-catcher on the team and constantly move the chains.  You can bash him for not getting into the end zone.  It's fair.  Reed isn't a typical #2, he'd be better in a slot role, sure.  But at the very least he is a capable #2, sort of a #2a WR.

This FanPost was written by a registered user of Buffalo Rumblings. Its views do not necessarily reflect the views of Rumblings' editorial staff, but are just as valued as our own.

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Nice analysis. I still want a #2 WR, though…

by Ron From NM on Feb 14, 2009 11:53 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm not saying he's the answer.

Just that he’s better than what people, specifically B.S., gives him credit for. You know me. I’ve defended Poz’s play, Ralph & Tasker’s Hall of Fame candidacy, and now Josh Reed.

I even tried to defend Royal’s fumbling but you kicked the crap out of me on that.

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 14, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I couldn’t help myself on Royal… If the Bills land Pettigrew I think Royal gets cut or traded for a 7th to some team of charitable suckers.

by Ron From NM on Feb 14, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Here was my response:

Obviously there weren’t many starting WRs who caught as few TDs as Reed did. But Deion Branch, Chad Johnson, Roy Williams, Plaxico Burress, Chris Chambers, Amani Toomer, Ronald Curry, Jerry Porter, Drew Bennett, Kevin Curtis, Roscoe Parrish, Joey Galloway, Andre Davis and Reggie Brown all had a higher cap number and fewer yards than Reed. That list also doesn’t include players on IR like Nate Burleson and Joe Jurevicious. So of the 40 WRs who had a higher cap hit then Reed, 16 of them had fewer yards then Reed did.

And that is just the salary cap. Javon Walker, Antwaan Randle El, Erenst Wilford, Brandon Stokely, Patrick Crayton, Donte Stallworth and Reggie Williams all signed contracts with a bigger per year average then Reed and had fewer catches and yards then Reed did.

Considering that Reed missed a few games and the Bills were in the bottom third in the league in pass attempts, I don’t know how you can consider Reed to be overpaid. He is what he is, he is a decent underneath possesion receiver, but he is also compensated like one.

by kaisertown on Feb 14, 2009 11:59 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

That list of names you chose includes mostly bench players- not WRs who have started the past two years. If you feel like digging up stats, check out their snaps on offense compared to Reed’s and then measure his value over a replacement player (VORP). I’m not getting into this outdated argument again because this team isn’t close enough for a #2 WR to make us contenders. Frankly, I think Reed’s a perverse fan favorite because he’s short, slow, and untalented and fans like to root for the everyman like that. To summarize, you can’t make a list of overpaid players on the Bills and not include a STARTING WR who has 1 touchdown in the last two seasons. That’s not B.S., your rebuttal is.

The passing of the torch is finally complete.

by Benjamin Salem on Feb 14, 2009 12:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Really?

Would anyone here describe themselves as a Reed Fan?

by Ron From NM on Feb 14, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I am defnding him and I don't think he's the answer...

but he’s certainly shown he is capable.

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 14, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I am........love the guy

12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.

by norcaliangelsfan on Feb 14, 2009 8:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

(Is is a coincidence his initials are B.S.? I think not.)
That’s not B.S., your rebuttal is.

Is this absolutely necessary? You lose me on arguments when you have to include jabs like this. I’m speaking to both of you (MRW and Ben). Act like adults, please.

Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more

by Brian Galliford on Feb 14, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hah! I defy you to find an instance where I took a personal shot at any of your readers rather than their ideas (unless you include when I try to joke around with you, Brian Galliford, and you don’t get it). One time, I entitled a response to Kaisertwon (who I find relevant, but far too defensive about team personnel) “Jerkstore” which was an attempt at humor and that got erased anyway. I called the Sireric author “friend-o” before (from “No Countyt for Old Men”) and that got erased too. Those aren’t personal shots, those are popular culture references…I rarely respond to other readers’ comments and tend to be interested in the articles on your web site more than anything. I don’t agree with much of this poster’s (MRW) opinions and so I don’t respnd to his material very often. If he needs to take shots at me, that’s fine, but don’t talk down to me like I’ve stooped that level- that’s as inaccurate as the list of comparable WRs above.

The passing of the torch is finally complete.

by Benjamin Salem on Feb 14, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ben,

Sorry about the shot. I just find much of your opinions un-supported. I took the shot out of the article.

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 14, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

NCFOM is one of my favorite movies. I also recognize Jerk Store, because I’ve seen that particular episode of Seinfeld. I’m sorry if I misconstrued your attempts at humor as slanderous. Perhaps more frequent attempts at making your intentions more easily recognizable would suffice. In the meantime, the sniping is becoming insufferable.

Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more

by Brian Galliford on Feb 14, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My bad Brian....

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 14, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t know where to find a percentage of snaps on offense. I doubt the info is available, but the best way to compare receiving numbers would be if we had the total number of pass plays that they were on the field for.

I would say that most of the players I listed were on the field for a comparable number of pass plays to Reed. You have to consider that Reed missed about 3.5 games and played in the run fest that was week 17. Buffalo threw the ball less often than most teams and a lot of the players I listed were starters. Reed is obviously a below average (or worse) number 2 WR, but he is also paid like a below average #2 WR.

At one point last year, you said that Reed would be a 5th WR on most teams. That is why we defend Reed, it isn’t because he is any good, but he is twice as good as you believe he is. I think you confuse our not hating players with us having objective, realistic expectations for what a mediocre player can accomplish in the right role.

by kaisertown on Feb 14, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think you confuse our not hating players with us having objective, realistic expectations for what a mediocre player can accomplish in the right role.

Well said. I don’t have a ton of love for Reed. I was actually pretty pissed when he was drafted, (I wanted Tripplet , although in hindsight maybe that wasn’t the best move either) And it’s not that I think he is anything special. When the best thing you can say about a WR is that he is a great blocker, there is something missing. But that doesn’t mean that he shouldn’t have a role on this team. It’s not his fault that OBD hasn’t brought in someone better to be the #2 there by sliding him into the slot where he would be more effective.

I think that Ben’s constant get rid of Reed is so far in that direction that the middle of the road stance on Reed looks like defending him when it really isn’t.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Feb 14, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The list of the names I chose?

I put the guys who were just ahead and behind Reed for the money argument. I didn’t “choose” them.

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 14, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Superfan82....

Is that you? The bashing on Reed and the tone in which you write………If it’s not you, then you must be his twin brother ;)

Bills fan half way around the world

by moncheri on Feb 14, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Reed had a good year, for Reed. The last few years not so much. If the Bills could add a good outside WR, Reed could put up even better numbers.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Feb 14, 2009 12:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Reed

Yeah, I harped on Reed last year because I wanted to argue the need to upgrade the weapons available for Trent Edwards. I stand by that to this day, but this team has bigger positions to fill in my view. People do this all the time at other positions in following this team (Center! Defensive End!) but with no rebuttal. To say I constantly bash Reed is sort of selective memory in my opinion. I think it’s much more telling that in responding to a list of 10 players that didn’t earn their contracts last year (as invited by the poster), I named three players who I thought belonged on the list more than Whitner, and only Reed’s name caused fierce, bizarre defending. I honestly think my opinion of the role of the starting WR opposite Evans is much more even keeled than many of the posters who support the current direction of the offensive weapontry employed at OBD. -B.S.

The passing of the torch is finally complete.

by Benjamin Salem on Feb 14, 2009 1:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

We agree that we want more offensive weapons. Never said that Reed was the best #2 or even a very good #2. But he certainly earned his paycheck last year.

For Reed’s pay scale he produced better than those around him (as evidenced by the comparably paid WRs listed above). That is why he wasn’t on the list. You can have an opinion if you back it up with some sort of argument. In absence of an argument against Reed I provided one for Reed which you still haven’t addressed.

The reason nobody defends the TEs or DEs is that there is nothing to defend in their production. With Reed there is a lot to defend.

I didn’t say you constantly bash Reed. But this is the second time I’ve seen you dismiss Reed and his production for this team based solely on his TD numbers. So by providing an argument for Reed I hoped to get a response from you saying why you don’t feel his performance last year warranted his contract.

You use one stat, TDs, as the backbone for your argument against Reed and then think Whitner did more to earn his paycheck without an INT? It doesn’t make sense and I want you to explain.

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 14, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My argument was and is how many starting WRs who earned close to 3 million dollars had both less than 600 yards and 1 or fewer touchdowns? You chose to respond with your own group of players who didn’t fit that description. I personally believe that if you plugged in any WR into the starting lineup (say Steve Johnson), they’ should get more than the 40-55 catches, 450-550 yards, and 0.5 TDs like Reed’s done the last two years starting. Thus, I think Buffalo could do better with the 3 million dollars they paid Reed…I’m no Whitner fan, but’s he’s an average safety who has room to grow. Reed’s a below average multi-million dollar starting WR with no upside.

The passing of the torch is finally complete.

by Benjamin Salem on Feb 14, 2009 1:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

There is some truth to that, although we should probably use the 2 mil Reed made in actual dollars or the 2.5 mil average yearly pay (4 year, 10 mil contract) instead of his 3 mil 2008 cap hit. Reed got paid 2 mil out of the 110 mil that Buffalo paid in salary last year, so it isn’t like Reed is some large percentage of Buffalo’s payroll.

You could say that Johnson could have put up fairly comparable numbers in terms of yards and he obvioulsy would have dwarfed Reed’s TD total, but the Bills were lucky to find Johnson in the 7th round. Considering that Reed missed some games, would Hardy have put up comparable numbers to Reed? What about a cheap free agent who everyone wanted like Bryant Johnson, Ernest Wilford or DJ Hackett (who I was stupid enough to like last offseason)?

by kaisertown on Feb 14, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough

From what I saw of James Hardy last year, he would not have been as productive as Reed with similar playing time. And no, Reed’s not wildly expensive and if he was a 3rd down slot/backup WR, he’d be decent enough….but worth his contract in current role? Not at all.

The passing of the torch is finally complete.

by Benjamin Salem on Feb 14, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

off topic

I like your new avatar.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Feb 14, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A nod to the concept of a common enemy…if we go 2-14 next year and those two wins are both against New England, they can build a statue of Jauron at the stadium gates and I’ll be ok with it…F#ck the Pats.

The passing of the torch is finally complete.

by Benjamin Salem on Feb 14, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

LOL. Well said.

Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more

by Brian Galliford on Feb 14, 2009 5:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The point I was trying to make was never that Reed deserved to be a starter but he earned the money he was paid. If you want to argue that someone else could perform better than Reed you are right.

Wilford was signed to be a starter. He earned just under Reed and produced a lot less than Reed.

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 14, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess that's

part of the whole argument: For being paid $2-3mil/year, is that starter money or 3rd/slot receiver money? Sometimes teams overpay someone to be a backup. But for this particular post, if Reed is paid 3rd/slot receiver money, yet the team plays and expects him to perfrom as a starter, then who’s fault is it? I’d say he earned his paycheck for 2008 (not the 2 years before though), but didn’t earn himself to be a true #2 receiver we would like. Just because the coaches put him in the wrong place that doesn’t mean we should have extra expectation of what he is capable of.

Bills fan half way around the world

by moncheri on Feb 14, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He's about the 35-40th highest paid WR in the league according to USA Today...

so his yardage production and receptions production seem to work out.

Playing Eternal Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 14, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's hard to measure

But I would imagine Reed helps our run game at least a few plays a game.

by syrbillsfan on Feb 17, 2009 8:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not to mention

We are a team tat doesn’t throw the ball around, he was injured for a few games, and our overall offensive production is low, considering we usually get out matched physically and lose the time of possession battle in the 2nd half. I used to hate Josh Reed, but it is clear that he is one of the most consistent players the Bills have and I am glad we still have him. I also think, if we got a good receiving TE, a threat, and the Bills began to control and dictate games and have more offensive production (at least in the middle of the league) Reed could see upwards of 70 catches, 700 yards, and some more Tds….if he wasn’t injured he probably would have had that last season as he was only 14 cathes and 100 yards off that mark. And that is good for a #2 receiver in my book. Just look at Lofton’s numbers here in the 90s

The Bills CAN win every game

by killascript on Feb 14, 2009 2:16 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Now that is a strech, yo

Reed to Lofton analogy? Kenny Lofton left Green Bay after 9 seasons as the all-time Packer leading receiver. But I agree with your point. Reed is not the worst #2 in the league. He’s not a super value, but he does his job (moves chains,) unlike others…cough..pass….rushers…

Sweet home Orchard Park.

by thurman on Feb 15, 2009 2:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Kenny Lofton

You mean James Lofton right?

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Feb 15, 2009 9:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No he means Kenny Loggins

That guy could sing, but also ran great routes!!!!

Teach your children about the four seasons: preseason, regular season, postseason, and off-season

by Joe P. on Feb 15, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Highway to the Danger Zone!

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Feb 15, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking...... "gotta cut loose, footloose....."

Teach your children about the four seasons: preseason, regular season, postseason, and off-season

by Joe P. on Feb 15, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Heart to Heart!

by Dyl on Feb 16, 2009 2:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I used to be anti-Josh Reed. This was about two years ago. I thought he was someone we could cut. At the time we had a big influx of wide receivers, it was the deepest position on the team (Moulds, Evans, Reed, Parrish, Aiken, Freddie Smith, G. Wilson) and Reed was having problems with drops. He was a second round pick of the Bills and sort of underperformed in his first year as a #2, almost getting outperformed by Bobby Shaw.

Since then J Reed has picked up his game, and I’ve completely changed my opinion. He’s the best route-running receiver we have. He doesn’t have issues with drops anymore. His natural agility creates a dynamic amount of seperation on the route, even if he doesn’t have the speed to be a true playmaker. Even if his role is relegated to a slot receiver, it has proven to be essential to what the offense struggles with most — sustaining drives and moving the ball down the field. He’s also the most complete WR we have — the strongest and best blocking we have.

Josh Reed is slow, short, and untalented, okay. Tom Brady is immobile, getting older, and has lost a whole season to injury.

by Dyl on Feb 16, 2009 3:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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