More thoughts on the Trade Down Scenario

by keuka121 on Feb 14, 2009 3:52 PM EST Comment 33 comments

As we get closer to draft day it looks more and more likely that we might be in no man's land at #11. If Everette Brown, Brian Orakpo (cooling on him - why has he not learned even a good spin move?), and BJ Raji are gone before we pick, the trade down plan becomes more viable. Especially if one of the two top QB's and/or one of the top LT's are still on the board. Right now we're good to go at both positions. Now I might be crediting more flexibility to the Bills front office than is realistic, but I hope not.

If OBD wants Mack or Pettigrew then a trade down to no later than #21 should land either one.

However, as wpod over at the Range posted earlier, we could get very creative if the draft plays out right. Here's his scenario. Trade down with Tampa to #19 if a top QB is still available at #11 (probably Sanchez). We get Tampa's second round pick. They want one (we're assuming that Garcia leaves). Then immediately trade down again with Atlanta to #24 so they can jump Philly and take Pettigrew. They want him. We get Atlanta's third round pick. Now we have the 24th pick, two 2nd round picks and two 3rd round picks! I know, a dream scenario. But I love it. The mind boggles. We get Mack, Coffman, etc, etc. What an adrenalin rush!

This FanPost was written by a registered user of Buffalo Rumblings. Its views do not necessarily reflect the views of Rumblings' editorial staff, but are just as valued as our own.

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Trade down

I love your scenario- why not develop it further…who would you take with your picks in rounds 2 and 3?

by dukedoc76 on Feb 14, 2009 5:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree. Fill it out

Teach your children about the four seasons: preseason, regular season, postseason, and off-season

by Joe P. on Feb 14, 2009 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Golly gosh Joe you’ve outdone yourself on your new avatar. How am I supposed to focus on your thoughts? I mean the ones you post. Looks like one of my old girlfriends.

everything goes better with a BIG MACK

by keuka121 on Feb 15, 2009 8:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

Teach your children about the four seasons: preseason, regular season, postseason, and off-season

by Joe P. on Feb 15, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a great and realistic scenario

If we could just sneak forward-thinking people like you into the Bills War Room, we’d be in great shape.

I've been feeling Buffalo ill.

by ChipShot on Feb 14, 2009 8:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

OK. I have to think about it. Too many choices.

everything goes better with a BIG MACK

by keuka121 on Feb 15, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

That’d be great, but I don’t think this front office is capable of doing such a thing. There’s a better chance we’ll do something stupid like draft William Moore at #11 than trade down, unfortunately.

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Feb 15, 2009 2:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Realistically you are probably right. This could happen but not with our conservative front office. It’s abour like asking Jim Boeheim to instill some disciplined play on his basketball team. Taint gonna happen, but I’ll play out my thoughts anyways.

everything goes better with a BIG MACK

by keuka121 on Feb 15, 2009 8:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s abour like asking Jim Boeheim to instill some disciplined play on his basketball team.

Ain’t that the truth. Talk about a guy who’s refusal to change or teach fundamentals is going to taint his legacy. At least at the rate he’s got the program going now.

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Feb 15, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And what a shame. We get to watch him outcoached by Jim Calhoun way too often. Makes me sick. And reminds me of…….

everything goes better with a BIG MACK

by keuka121 on Feb 15, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was writing a reply to you and made the mistake of looking at Joe P’s new avatar. Then I clicked on her and lost my reply.
You are probably right in asking our front office to be that creative or flexible. About like asking Jim Boeheim to instill some discipline on his basketball team. I wish it were so but taint gonna happen. I’ll play out my thoughts anyways.

everything goes better with a BIG MACK

by keuka121 on Feb 15, 2009 8:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We've got a cabin down in steerage on the SS Pessimist, Kurupt

While you’re down there we’d appreciate it if you’d shovel a little coal into the furnace…

by Ron From NM on Feb 15, 2009 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I steer my own ship, the SS Realist.

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Feb 15, 2009 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is there a difference?

The reality is that the Bills have consistently been inconsistent when it comes to talent evaluation.

by Ron From NM on Feb 15, 2009 11:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

oh se now thats just not...

oh wait. it’s the bills… ok… you win.

by CanadianBillsFan on Feb 16, 2009 1:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Coal? Coal? Coal is too damn expensive!

K’s down there on a bike peddeling for the all the guy is worth!

I told the witch doctor that I was in love with the Buffalo Bills, and instead of telling me to say "Oh eeh oh oh ah, ting tang walla walla wing bang" in order to make me feel better he told me to buy a gun and end it.

by WABillsfan on Feb 17, 2009 1:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I love your enthusiasm Keuka

But the Bills are normally incapable of swinging one deal that two seems downright impossible. I was hoping when Brandon got the big promotion that having a wheeler Dealer sales guy there would help come draft day for exactly this reason, let’s hope!

Any way that we get Mack is great with me! You mentionned Coffman but I am still a huge Nelson fan. The kid is a gutsy blocker and a great looking receiver

Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
Section 336 Row 13

by keysh67 on Feb 15, 2009 8:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here’s how that dream scenario might play out.

- Alex Mack. We land da man and an anchor and line leader for a long time.

- Chase Coffman, 6-6, 245, 4.85. Not fast by any means but knows how to get open, presents a large target and is tough to bring down. Just don’t try that hurdle stuff in the NFL please. We want you to be in for the next play. Other possibility – Shawn Nelson, 6-5, 240, 4.65. Faster but probably not quite as NFL ready as Chase. We can’t lose either way.

- Either Robert Ayers, 6-3, 270 or Paul Kruger, 6-5, 265. It might be a case of who is available here at DE. All the other top DE’s will be gone and we will be able to get a TE at #42 and one of these DE’s at #50. Ayers is coming on strong (like the light bulb finally turned on) and Kruger is solid.

- Either a safety or LB here. This is still pre-free agency so that is how I am constructing this. At LB, I’m assuming an OLB because Jauron will keep Poz in the middle. At OLB the choice is either Marcus Freeman, 6-1, 239, 4.60, Ohio St, or Tyrone McKenzie, 6-2, 235, 4.65, S Florida. At Safety (I’m assuming Whitner will play FS) either Michael Hamlin, 6-3, 205, 4.55, Clemson, or Chip Vaughn, 6-2, 215, 4.55, Wake Forest. The lean will most likely be towards OLB

- Either offensive guard or whatever was not picked at #75. At OLB, Zack Follett, 6-1, 238, 4.70, Cal, or Cody Brown, 6-2, 242, 4.65 are in the mix. At SS, Chip Vaughn, Curtis Taylor, 6-3, 204, 4.50 or Nick Harris, 6-3, 232, 4.70 are possibilities. William Moore might be here too. At guard I’d look at Kraig, 6-6, 332, 5.30, Wisconsin.

After pick #42 it depends on who OBD has targeted as best player available at the different positions. I would still grab our choice of FB in round 6. Moved that from round 5, but don’t wait till round 7. Overall our best draft ever. Hey, you never know. Somebody wake me up now.

everything goes better with a BIG MACK

by keuka121 on Feb 15, 2009 9:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

We still don’t have a pass rusher in your scenario though. Spend one of those 3rd’s you got on an undersized or raw pass rusher. What this team doesn’t need is another pass rush deficient DE, which is what you’d be getting with one of those 2nd rounders you suggested. I’m sick of watching the Kelsay, Denney types.

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Feb 15, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ayers > Kelsay, Denney

He was all Tennesee had this year and he ramped it up. Was SR Bowl MVP too.

better pass rushing skill set than almost all other DE prospects per scouts

by freddyjj on Feb 15, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Ayers has such great pass rushing skills, then where is the thing that counts most? Production on the field. Ayers had a whopping 3 sacks this season, and just 9 for his career. If he has top notch talent, why is he not doing more on the field?

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Feb 15, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree, I think Ayers is rising up the draft charts WAY too quickly. I still think he is a 4th-5th round prospect despite his strong senior bowl.

I don’t view Paul Kruger as a good enough pass rusher for Buffalo to consider either. 7.5 sacks looks pretty good on paper, but 4 of them came against Utah St. He did have a bunch of tackles for a loss against good competition and he will probably make a nice Denney type LE with the upside to be a much better pass rusher than Denney. I wouldn’t draft him until the 3rd round at the very earliest though. These type of Ayers or Kruger DEs are basically what Buffalo has now. If Buffalo drafts one of these types of DEs in the 2nd round and doesn’t address the DE position in another considerable way, then I will be very, very dissapointed.

by kaisertown on Feb 15, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We might get Michael Johnson in the second. There is a big dropoff in rushing talent though. How about Matt Shaughnessey?

everything goes better with a BIG MACK

by keuka121 on Feb 15, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would love Michael Johnson in the second round. Even if never develops, his quickness off the ball will make him a useful situational player. If Kruger never develops you end up with Chris Kelsay, If Johnson never figures it out then you end up with a Chris Clemons type player. I’ll role the dice on Johnson before a player like Kruger or Ayers.

Matt Shaughnessy’s production is hardly better than Ayers’. He has been a starter for a few seasons and has never had more than 5 sacks. If Johnson or Larry English aren’t there in the second round then I think we are reaching for a DE if we take one.

by kaisertown on Feb 15, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What about Lawrence Sidbury in the 3rd?

He currently is getting ranked as the 10th best DE in most mock rankings right now. Scouts, Inc. gives him a grade of 69, and for the 2008 season racked up the following:
26 solo tackles, 30 Assist Tackles, 20 tackles for loss (80 yards total), 11.5 sacks, 3 FF, and 1 FR, along with 2 Pass deflections.

Thats pretty solid production from a kid from D1-AA, he will need some work, but as a project player in this scenario with our 2 3rd Rounders, I think he would be an awesome pick to help take care of DE age and depth (bye bye Bryan & Kelsay)

by WABillsfan on Feb 17, 2009 1:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why so negative K?

tough Monday?

Ayers only played 27 games over 4 years and got 9 sacks. He also played most of his first 2 years at OLB. So he really got 7 sacks in his last 23 games.

Miichael Johnson played 41 and got 20. Against easier competition. With 2 DTs next to him that will be drafted.

Kelsay and Denney have 90 plus games each and 17 and 21 sacks respectively.

Johnson or Ayers would be improvements

by freddyjj on Feb 16, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wrote it yesterday, ha!

Ayers had 3 sacks this year, what’s the excuse for that?

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Feb 16, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

When I look at the DE class this year that is one of the problems. After the top tier it is hard to find a true sackmaster. Sure one or two will probably emerge, but predicting who is not easy. So I wagged it.

everything goes better with a BIG MACK

by keuka121 on Feb 17, 2009 9:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t know what happened but the pick numbers got messed up. First pick is #24, second is #42, third is #50, fourth is #75 and fifth is #90. Sorry for the confusion.

everything goes better with a BIG MACK

by keuka121 on Feb 15, 2009 9:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I love this idea of trading down multiple times.

(Insert boring krytime same old – same old refrain here)

I remain adamant about this philosophy – stay out of the top half of the first round, and accummulate as many picks as possible in rounds 2-4.

In your scenario here, you come up with five picks on the traditional first day. That’s fantastic in my world.

by krytime on Feb 15, 2009 12:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Trading down

Haven’t read much about Coffman!!!! All the rankings that I have read don’t have him very high. How good is this guy??

by Bob on Feb 15, 2009 12:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Brian has him as his favorite TE.

He is a big target at 6-6 and has great football instincts. The only knock on him is his straight line speed. He is one of the slowest TE’s in the draft with a fourty time of 4.85. Shawn Nelson’s is 4.65. So if we were to get him I’d mentor Don Beebe with him. Beebe has tutored others and improved their time. He is an excellent running coach.
Which reminds me of another story. In the early 70’s I was stationed in the SF Bay area with the Navy. We would go down to Oakland stadium and watch the A’s play in day games. You could get a box seat behind the 1st base dugout for less than $15 and watch one of the all time great baseball teams. THey had Reggie Jackson, Bert Campaneris, Sal Bando, Gene Tenace, Joe Rudi and others in the field. They also had Catfish Hunter, Vida Blue, Blue Moon Odom and Ken Holtzman for a rotation with Rollie Fingers in relief. Charlie Finley owned the club at the time. He hired Herb Washington as a “designated runner”. One of the first owners to do so. Herb Washington now owns several McDonalds in the Rochester area. He would put him in to steal bases in late innings. He never got thrown out, even when the pickoff play was called. Man was he fast.

everything goes better with a BIG MACK

by keuka121 on Feb 15, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs