phase one of my mock offseason

by kaisertown on Feb 27, 2009 1:14 AM EST Comment 18 comments

So here is my mock offseason. This is what I would do if I were running the show and not what I think Buffalo will do.

First I want to say that I'm on board with the Dockery cut. I was really surprised and totally disagreed with the move at first because I thought that Dock was only going to be making about 3 mil this season. But after some digging and some thinking it looks like bonuses were going to push his contract up over 5 mil this year. Rotoworld had his salary listed at 2.75 mil, but if you add up all the money he has already gotten and all the salaries rotoworld had him scheduled to recieve, it ends up being more than 4 mil short of the 49 mil contract he signed. So to recap: Derrick Dockery for 3 mil is something I don't mind on the team, but Derrick Dockery for 5 mil is a good cut.

In addition to cutting Dockery, I would cut Robert Royal, just like Buffalo did and save about 1.5 - 2 mil that way. I would cut Chris Kelsay saving 3.5 mil and Roscoe Parrish to save another 3 mil. I thought about cutting the overpaid Spencer Johnson too, but a lot of his contract is still guaranteed and a vet replacement would end up being just as average and just as overpaid.

Next thing I'm going to do is trade Jason Peters. I know this sounds like insanity to many of you and I agreed for the longest time, but after Jordan Gross got 10 mil a year, I think Peters isn't worth the investment. I know that leaves me with 3 offensive line spots that need to be filled, but it also leaves me with lots and lots of money to fill those spots as well as an extra pick or two to fill some of the holes with. I'm trading him to Philly who thinks they can win now, won't have to pay Peters too much more than they were going to give Tra Thomas anyways and has an extra first round pick. Is it reasonable to think that you could get the 28th overall pick and Philly's first 5th round pick (5th pick in the round) for Peters? I tend to be conservative with speculation like this, but I think that sounds about right.

So that leaves Buffalo's roster and the money we owe them in 2009 looking like this:

QB
Trent Edwards - .6

RB
Marshawn Lynch - 3.0
Xavier Omon - .4

WR
Lee Evans - 9.0
Josh Reed - 2.6
James Hardy - .4
Steve Johnson - .4

TE
Derek Fine - .4

OL
Brad Butler - 1.5
Langston Walker - 4.0
Demetrius Bell - .4

DE
Aaron Schobel - 4.0
Ryan Denney - 3.1
Chris Ellis - .4

DT
Marcus Stroud - 5.0
Kyle Williams - 2.5
Spencer Johnson - 3.5
John McCargo - .9

LB
Paul Posluszny - .6
Kawika Mitchell - 3.5
Ace Bowen - .4

CB
Terrence McGee - 3.0
Ashton Youboty - .5
Leodis McKelvin - 3.0
Reggie Corner - .4

S
Donte Whitner - 4.0
Bryan Scott - .8
Ko Simpson - .5
John Wendling - .5

ST
Rian Lindell - 1.2
Brian Moorman - 1.2

total - 61.7

ERFA
Matt Baker
Fred Jackson
Derek Schouman
Copeland Bryan
Blake Costanzo
Jon Corto
Ryan Neill
Jonathon Stupar
Bruce Hall
Corey Mace
Chris Denman
C.J. Hawthorne
Felton Huggins
Brandon Rodd
Marcus Buggs
Vince Hall
Mike Jefferson
Marcus Smith

RFA
Gibran Hamdan
Justin Jenkins
John DiGiorgio
Keith Ellison
George Wilson
Dustin Fox

UFA
Kirk Chambers
Melvin Fowler
Duke Preston
JP Losman
Jason Whittle
Angelo Crowell
Jabari Greer
Corey McIntyre
Jonathon Scott
Teddy Lehman

So I have Buffalo at 61.7 million cash to cap dollars on the books. Buffalo spent 113 mil last year on player salaries and bonuses and that was about league average. It looks like Buffalo will spend a little more this year than last year so I'm capping myself off at 120 mil.

I'm actually going to bring 80 players into camp like they do in the NFL. So first up is RFAs and obviously there is a lot of guess work as to what these guys would or wouldn't accept, but I think my offers are pretty fair.

Keith Ellison - I'm not giving him or DiGi tenders, instead I'm going to try and lock them up on the cheap for multiple seasons. I am signing Ellison to a three year contract that pays him 1.1 mil per season. The contract would give him 600K in base salary this year and a 700K signing bonus and 1 mil in salary in 2010 and 2011.

John Digiorgio - 2 year contract that gives him a 400K signing bonus with 500K in first year salary and 900K his second year.

George Wilson gets the million dollar RFA tender that gives me the right to match any offer and I feel safe assuming that no team is actually going to try and sign Wilson away.

I'm letting Hamdan and Jenkins become UFAs. I would bring them back very early into FA on cheap one year contracts. 600K for each sounds like the best offer they could get from someone else.

Dustin Fox can walk. I might bring him back after the draft as camp filler.

I am offering the league minimum to every ERFA other than Jackson and Baker. I'm giving Jackson a long term contract and I won't be offering Baker a contract at all. So (by my best guess) that ends up looking like this:

460K for Derek Schouman, Copeland Bryan, Ryan Neill and Corey Mace. 460K isn't a fun number to round, but i'll just round up to 500K

385K for Blake Costanzo, Jon Corto, Jonathan Stupar, Bruce Hall, Chris Denman and Marcus Buggs. I'll round those contracts up to 400K

290K for CJ Hawthorne, Felton Huggins, Brandon Rodd, Vince Hall, Mike Jefferson and Marcus Smith. These contracts get rounded up to 300K

Fred Jackson gets a 5 year, 14 mil contract. I know I said I would never give him that type of money, but I'm setting it up like an extension more than a new contract. Jackson gets a nice bonus now to keep him happy (4 mil signing bonus, 3 of which I will pay upfront and I will give him the last mil next offseason) and really cheap salaries for a few seasons and some big ones that we can avoid by cutting him down the road. So the cash to cap money that I would owe Jackson would look like: 2009 - 3.5 mil, 2010 - 1.5 mil, 2011 - 1.5 mil, 2012 - 3 mil, 2013 - 3.5 mil.

The UFAs that I'm just letting walk without a second thought are Melvin Fowler, Duke Preston, JP Losman, Jason Whittle, Jabari Greer (too expensive), Corey McIntyre and Jonathon Scott. I'm letting Teddy Lehman experience some free agency as well, but I might bring him back at some point to be roster filler if somebody doesn't beat me to it.

I'm going to handle Crowell a lot like the Bills are going to handle him. I want to see just how much I would have to pay him to get him back, but I would guess there is an 80% chance or better that I bring Crowell back to start on the strong side. It just makes too much sense not to do it.

Kirk Chambers is getting offered a 3 year, 5.5 mil contract. If Buffalo gives him a bigger deal then that, I will reconsider. For now, I feel like that is about what Buffalo will give him. The cash to cap values would look like: 2009 - 2.5, 2010 - 1.5 mil, 2011 - 1.5 mil

That leaves me with these cash to cap additions to my roster:

Ellison - 1.3
DiGiorgio - .9
Wilson - 1.0
Hamdan - .6
Jenkins - .6
Jackson - 3.5
Chambers - 2.5
Schouman - .5
Neill - .5

I'm also estimating 15 mil in cash to cap money that will have to go to signing the draft picks. I have 9 picks and 41 players under contract. So I can assume that I won't have many (if any) players who I havn't accounted for cash to cap wise (guys like Costanzo, Bryan, Huggins etc...) make the team. That means I have already used about 88 of my 115-120 mil. And you can also see how I think that Buffalo has very little money to spend this offseason in the real, non-mock world.

So now comes the fun part. How am i going to spend my 30 mil in UFA.

The first thing I would have done would have happened this afternoon when I signed former Dolphin LB and Syracuse grad Kelvin Smith to a nice cheap contract and let him compete for a roster spot. 1 year 500K with a nice little 30K signing bonus would bring him into camp.

I'm going after TJ Houshmandzadeh hard. We will have to wait and see what kind of deal he ends up signing, but I wouldn't mind going over 10 mil per season and I wouldn't mind giving him way more years than he deserves to get. I plan on just beating whatever contract he ends on signing. It's tough to give a guy like him an actual contract without, you know, actually negotiating and hearing what other teams are offering.

My other sizeable first day signing is Geoff Hangartner. I really like the idea of Buffalo bringing in a versatile player like Hangartner who can play either center or guard and go into the draft knowing that you can grab someone early from either position to compete for a starting spot. My initial offer to Hangartner would be 5 years, 18 mil and I would definitely be willing to top an offer from a different team as well.

Jason Babin could be a nice fit here as a stop-gap role player. He has been traded and/or cut a few times over the last few seasons, but he played well when the Chiefs got desperate late in the season. He is a former first round pick too. I would give him a decent contract and pretty much guarantee him that he makes the roster here and that is more than most teams will be willing to do. I would give him a 2 year deal worth 3 mil.

I'm assuming that the three contracts I end up giving out to Housh, Hangartner and Babin end up costing me about 20-25 mil in cash to cap money this season. That only leaves me with enough cash to sign some fringy vets for depth. This is something I'm going to be doing over time leading up to the season, but here are some of my front runners for various roles:

I'm open to a number of different QBs. Batch tops my list, but anyone who I can get really cheap will do including Joey Harrington, Ryan Fitzpatrick or even Chris Simms or Patrick Ramsey.

I'm waiting on third RB until after the draft. I'll probably settle for someone who is pretty bad, but I just don't think a 3rd RB is much of a priority. I wouldn't rule out drafting one in the later rounds to compete with Omon either.

I'm calling the agent of every FB available. I don't really have money to spend on one though, so I either have to find someone that nobody else is interested in or grab one in the draft.

Grabbing a blocking TE in FA is something to consider. A guy like Will Heller could be a nice addition at the right price. This would probably lead to me drafting a good receiving TE and keep 4 on the roster. Schouman might end up inactive most weeks, but then again, I've never really been a fan of his.

I'm definitely signing a CB at some point. Keiwan Ratliff seems like a nice option. Reynaldo Hill and former Bill, Eric King would be pretty cheap options too. I younger vet like Daven Holly or Eric Green would be great options too if I can get them cheap enough.

And a quick mock draft to end this ridiculously long post:
11 - Michael Oher
28 - Michael Johnson
rd 2 - Eric Wood
rd 3 - Chase Coffman

This FanPost was written by a registered user of Buffalo Rumblings. Its views do not necessarily reflect the views of Rumblings' editorial staff, but are just as valued as our own.

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Comments

Oh my, this is long. I can’t read it now. I skimmed to the bottom and noticed Kelvin Smith. i think you mean Morlon greenwood.

I’ll get to the rest of this tomorrow! zzzzzzz

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Feb 27, 2009 2:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nah, I meant Smith. I did a mock offseason like this last year and I actually brought 80 players into camp and picked a 53 man roster after all the other teams made their cuts and kept a practice squad too. My plan this year is to do the same, only with more accurate contract info and then to keep my same team heading into next offseason and see if I can get a better roster than the Bills do in a few years.

I’ll probably be bringing Crowell back and if I deem him to be too expensive, then I will end up signing a cheap undersized guy to play the weakside and move Mitchell to strongside, or just keep Ellison as the starter and draft somebody in the middle rounds to compete.

I always liked Kelvin Smith. I think he could make an NFL roster.

by kaisertown on Feb 27, 2009 9:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dear god.......

this is only phase one?

12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.

by norcaliangelsfan on Feb 27, 2009 4:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well phase two happens over time as I figure out what the FAs are worth when they sign with other teams. Phase 3 would be the draft and signing some undrafted players after the draft and phase 4 would be roster cuts after the preseason ends. So all the tedious work is included in phase 1. If I had waited until all was said and done to post my whole mock offseason it would probably only be about 40% longer than this is and a lot of that would just be the list of what my final 53 man roster and PS would look like.

On that note, I found it very challenging to do a live draft last year where I picked a player every time the Bills were on the clock. It’s tough when you can’t look back and change things around. I would encourage anyone who follows the draft enough to know those 6th and 7th round prospects to try it. You get a whole new respect for NFL GMs (and inner circles).

by kaisertown on Feb 27, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you are under evaluating Peters market value

I think we could fetch higher than 28th + a 5th

I’ll admit that the depth of OT in this year’s draft is intriguing and if the offer is high enough I’d reconsider my opinion on the Peters situation. I would not trade him for anything less than a 1st & 2nd and even at that the position of the 1st would be important in my decision making process.

Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
Section 336 Row 13

by keysh67 on Feb 27, 2009 9:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe I am, maybe I’m not. It is really really tough to figure out. On one hand there aren’t any good FA tackles on the market who are even remotely young, on the other hand it is a really good draft for OTs. On one hand Peters is an incredible talent who could at some point be considered one of the couple best players at his position in the league, on the other hand you probably have to give him 10 mil a season after trading for him.

I think the fact that a team would have to give him a huge contract after trading for him takes a lot of his value away. You could maybe get Philly’s first pick or somebody else’s in the early 20s and a late round pick, but I doubt you could get a first and second from someone. But again, it’s really just educating guessing considering how little we really know. You might be right, but I try to be realistic and cautious with something like this to make it more challenging.

by kaisertown on Feb 27, 2009 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow!!!

I never thought you would come over to the dark side (trade Peters instead of overpaying). I like the Hoosh signing, what about Coles? Are you fine with the DTs we have? Greer might get a big payday and leave, but I am not giving up on him yet. I don’t think we sign a FA TE. Ryan Fitzpatrick looks to be the Bills #1 target at backup QB.

Very good plan overall. Rec’d

Bad boys, bad boys whatcha gonna do? Whatcha gonna do
when they come for you?

by Joe P. on Feb 27, 2009 11:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oohhh.....and I liked the draft except for Johnson.

Bad boys, bad boys whatcha gonna do? Whatcha gonna do
when they come for you?

by Joe P. on Feb 27, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Even if Johnson busts a little, he could be devastating on obvious pass downs and special teams. He was a special teams star at Georgia Tech, making plays on kick coverage and blocking punts and field goals. I love his upside. It was neck and neck for him and Mack, but I just figured that the 2nd round DEs suck. What if Larry English were still there, would that be better for ya?

by kaisertown on Feb 27, 2009 9:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Man, that is a tough one

In the past 24 hours of free agency, one thing that I heard keeps running through my head. I am paraphrasing, but I think it was someone on NFL network that said Albert Haynsworth was paid 100 million dollars because he can consistently beat double teams. When you double or triple team him, someone else should be free to get to the QB. Haynsworth makes the DEs and LBs on his team better.

Neither Stroud or Kyle Williams does that for us. We need a DT. What if Raji is available at #11? Or, Evander Hood at #28. I would be OK with Wood where you took him.

how about
11 – Raji
28 – Mack
rd 2 – Ron Brace
rd 3 – Chase Coffman

Bad boys, bad boys whatcha gonna do? Whatcha gonna do
when they come for you?

by Joe P. on Feb 27, 2009 11:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sorry, mean 11 - Michael Oher

Bad boys, bad boys whatcha gonna do? Whatcha gonna do
when they come for you?

by Joe P. on Feb 27, 2009 11:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn’t give Coles nearly as much money as I would Housh. He would make about as much of an immediate impact as anyone available though. 8 mil seems steep, 7 is something I can agree to.

I was very anti trading Peters when I thought he was going to sign a deal worth 8 or so a season. I am rarely surprised by huge contracts, but Jordan Gross’ deal really surprised me. Peters could easily get that contract and I’m just not too keen on someone who looks like a superstar sometimes, but not always.

I’ve given up on Greer. I’m just not paying a great #2 or decent #1 CB seven mil a season if I have McGee, McKelvin and Youboty on the roster.

I could live with our current DTs. Of all of Buffalo’s needs I would be most comfortable with this group going into next seasons. It is definitely a need and will probably be high on my priority list next offseason (both in real life and this mock), but I won’t mind if Buffalo uses it’s resources in other ways this time around. A DT would be a very strong consideration for my fourth round pick in that mock.

by kaisertown on Feb 27, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Great Draft

If the Bills can land those players, that’d be an awesome draft!

This year’s draft class is extremely deep in Center and Tackle positions. I can see any of the top 5 or 6 C and T start/contribute immediately at the NFL level. If we were to trade Peters, this is the best time. Like JoeP said, “Welcome to the dark side.”

Bills fan half way around the world

by moncheri on Feb 27, 2009 1:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks. I would still rather sign Peters than trade him ….. unless the price tag is 10 mil a season. And your right, if there is ever a time to need OLmen in the draft, then this is it. Part of my logic for trading Peters was that it would make it much, much more likely that the 11th pick ends up being a great one.

by kaisertown on Feb 27, 2009 9:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don’t necessary agree with all of it (trading Peters esp) but appreciate the effort. It is certainly thought provoking.

by Donte's Inferno on Feb 27, 2009 3:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why thank you Sir.

I really struggled with the decision to trade Peters. I would be happy if they resigned him too. I think it would be tough for them to screw that situation up (not that they can’t find a way).

by kaisertown on Feb 27, 2009 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That’s a lot of work. Any idea on how well Johnson interviewed at the combine? His story is motivation. And playing time. It’s a doeable scenario. Coffman is a hard worker and I think will learn to block well. WIth such a puky free agency crop of affordable players I really hope we trade down.

everything goes better with a BIG MACK

by keuka121 on Feb 27, 2009 3:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Havn’t heard much about Johnson as far as his combine performance. I think he struggles to read plays and finds himself way out of position more than he has a motivation problem, although I don’t know which one is worse. At least that is what I see when I watched GT play this year. His super lean looking frame is also a concern for me, but I think he can get stronger. I just think that Buffalo needs to role the dice on upside players more often than they do.

I’m not super high on Coffman, but with Housh on the roster I think he is a perfect fit. He doesn’t have to worry about being that seam buster as much with two WRs who can get open 20 yards downfield as the starters. Plus Coffman can possibly take over Reed’s role as the underneath possesion guy after his contract expires next offseason.

by kaisertown on Feb 27, 2009 9:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs