Building through the Draft and the Bills

by Thronsen on Mar 1, 2009 6:09 AM EST Comment 13 comments

Given some of the comments on this board, I decided to check how successful the Bills have been in drafting over the last 5 years.

I decided to use the Pro Bowl as a 'success' indicator, as it is readily available. But it comes with many problems, not the least of which is that the Pro Bowl can be a bad indicator of success, especially success within a team (and doubly overlooked for success at a important yet overlooked position like O Line).

In any case, here are the results:

San Diego Chargers	7
New York Jets	5
Tennessee Titans	5
Dallas Cowboys	4
Houston Texans	4
Chicago Bears	3
Cleveland Browns	3
Indianapolis Colts	3
New England Patriots	3
New York Giants	3
San Francisco 49ers	3
Arizona Cardinals	2
Atlanta Falcons	2
Baltimore Ravens	2
Denver Broncos	2
Miami Dolphins	2
New Orleans Saints	2
Philadelphia Eagles	2
Washington Redskins	2
Buffalo Bills	1
Carolina Panthers	1
Detroit Lions	1
Green Bay Packers	1
Kansas City Chiefs	1
Minnesota Vikings	1
Pittsburgh Steelers	1
Seattle Seahawks	1
St. Louis Rams	1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1
Cincinnati Bengals	0
Jacksonville Jaguars	0
Oakland Raiders	0

The one Bills selection was Marshawn Lynch, who went to the Pro Bowl in 08 as an alternate after the picked player didnt go.

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The funny thing about the company we keep is some of the very successful teams there

Carolina
Pittsburgh
Seattle (till last season)
Packers
Buccaneers

The next tier up is also strange with the teams there who have had relative lengthy success:
Eagles
Ravens
Broncos

Of course the bad teams near the top are also a real eye opener, with the Texans (middling at best), 49ers (egawd!), and the BROWNS (of course all of theirs came from the magical 2007 season).

If the Bills were a drug, I could only hope they were like speed so I could lose some weight as well.

by WABillsfan on Mar 1, 2009 6:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah. I had a theory, which is that the Bills havent been drafting well (and are unlikely to draft well in the future). The easiest test that I could think of was Pro Bowl selections. The results though didnt prove my point that strongly.

In my opinion the three strongest organizations right now (by far) are the Giants, Steelers and Pats, and they dont do particularly well in this analysis.

And some teams that havent done that well can be sighted near the top.

I hate the Pro Bowl selection process (especially for important parts of the team like the O Line), but I couldnt think of a better way to independently determine player quality.

This cant be definitive for a team, too small a sample size. But in general, its a not bad indicator. Not bad on a scale of Awful, Bad, Not Bad, Ok, Good, Great.

If anyone has a better idea on how to evaluate a draft, Im happy to look into it.

P.S. For your team specific comments, its worth noting that our 1 PB selection, wasnt really a selection, it was an alternate. Of course all the other numbers contain alternates as well, but it is only Chris Johnson getting hurt that kept us from having zero PB selections in the last 5 years.

by Thronsen on Mar 1, 2009 7:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

What about....

Jason Peters. I know he didn’t play becuase of injury but he was selected !

by RustyJones on Mar 1, 2009 8:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

He wasnt drafted. There are a bunch of Pro Bowlers who werent, but not sure what to say about them.

We knew you were good, but we wanted all other 31 teams to pass on you 7-8 times first?

by Thronsen on Mar 1, 2009 8:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

undrafted players should be counted. I’m sure there is a 7th rounder in there somewhere that you counted and he was passed over 7-8 times by some teams also.

Also this really isn’t a very good indication of a successful draft or not.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Mar 1, 2009 8:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As you mentioned, the Pro Bowl isn’t a very good indicator of how well you draft.

Ultimately, it’s not even how well you draft, IMO. It’s how well you develop the players you do bring in.

I’d be interested in a study of percentages of players drafted in regards to still with the team, still in the league, and out of the league.

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by Brian Galliford on Mar 1, 2009 8:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don’t know about a league wide study, but I believe the Colt’s win hands down as far as the percentage of players drafted still with the team. Colts under Polian is all about building through the draft and they generally stay clear of free agency. BigBlueShoe (of Stampede Blue) today posted his perspective of Polian’s philosophy and the Colt’s 2009 free agency: Free Agency 2009: So Colts fans, do you feel left out? He concludes:

Free agency is not financially sound for most teams. There is a reason the Redskins have been totally and completely irrelevant under Daniel Snyder’s reign in DC. Same with the Cowboys, and several other teams that spend a great deal on free agents.

Now, If you are a rebuilding team like the Broncos, Bucs, or Chiefs, getting your hands on some quality free agents makes sense. But, the team has to take care not to over spend. For the Colts, a 12 win team that is very close to getting back to the Super Bowl, overpaying and breaking their financial stability just to pick up some marginally decent players is not a formula for success.

Common sense really, but the Bills are not the Colts, but they are not “rebuilding” either . We appear to be in some sort of 7 and 9 limbo.

by Zumone on Mar 1, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL, 7-9 limbo, for how many years? HA HA HA

The time to deliver is now and if you fail to do so you will no doubt witness the consequences first hand.

by Cutter3636 on Mar 1, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it helps the Colts that they have continued to be successful. If Peyton had say, injured his knee in 2002 and never played again, do you think the Colts would work to retain as many of their FA’s as possible? At some point, they would have had to rebuild and would have been smart to let cap space open up and obtain as many draft picks as possible. The Colts success has led to the desire to retain their own free agents, and their own FA re-signings and draft picks have allowed them to be successful. In essence, they’ve had a cycle of success that keeps building on itself.

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Mar 1, 2009 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah. People are confusing what I wanted to prove, with what method I used to prove it.

I hate the Pro Bowl. I hate the event, I hate the selection, I hate that players care about it. I would hate watching it if I ever did watch it. I hate that it interrupts the infomercial I was watching when it came on.

I knew it was an imperfect indicator when I started.

I also knew that these results were like a 5 out of 1-10. I posted them anyway. Is the world a better place when you bury the results that dont agree with your preconceived opinions? I dont think so.

I am happy to look into other ways to objectively prove a drafts success.

Stats about still with the team, in the league, etc. Thats alot of work. Would love to see what you come up with Brian.

by Thronsen on Mar 1, 2009 9:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs