Sometimes there are subtle signs of something big and dangerous on the horizon. Let's say, a dark cloud on a sunny day, or maybe a dorsal fin emerging over the water, even something as innocuous as a door you could have swore you locked being unlocked.

Now sometimes that cloud will just float there for awhile and dissipate, that dorsal fin could be a dolphin or something you find in one of those novelty magazine everyone hates to get, and it could actually be that you just forgot to lock the door.

Those of us prone to yell, "SHARK SHARK!", have reason to be alarmed at the 2010 New England Patriots.

I believe that the Patriots have been manipulating alot of things from the onstart of free agency. I don't believe Belicheck is an evil mad scientist who wants to take over the world but I do believe he is a brilliant strategic mind with a very dark sense of humor.

When I hear about the Cassel trade I hear about how the Patriots got screwed and could have made a better deal. Perhaps. But let's look at the deal in more detail:

KC had a QB in Tyler Thigpen who displayed quite admirable traits, he was somewhat elusive and able to run as well as pass fairly well. Considering outside of Gonzalez and Bowe, the kid had very few targets, and that their best Offensive lineman is someone the Bills are interested in trading for, Thigpen really can't be blamed for the Chiefs offensive woes althougth the team was dismal. On the other side there is Matt Cassel. Cassel is very talented for the year he played but look at what kind of talent New England has on the offensive side of the ball. And who knows what kind of  productivity Vrabel has at this point in his career (he's not a golden god like Bruschi after all). I feel that Belicheck knew full well what he was doing and it was no favor to Pioli as many are suggesting.

Bledsoe was a sort of apt analogy to what is happening here although I believe we gave up a first. The Patriots are the type of team that will release a veteran before all of his talent is gone and therefore profits from trades etc. but in a few years the well runs dry and the other team usually holds onto the players too long.That's how I factor Vrabel in, Cassel is just an insane risk. He could be in all honesty a franchise QB, but he could be Derek Anderson.

Getting rid of Vrabel and Cassel are getting rid of players that the Patriots don't really NEED but are more of a luxury. And in fact, the players were signed to rather luxurious contracts that the Chiefs now have to renegotiate. The Patriots freed up tons of cap room to go after free agents or resign their starters and got what amounts to essentially a late 1st round pick. Time will tell, but it is quite possible for Cassel to bomb completely and more probable  that  at the least Vrabel will show his age this season with a brand new (and spotty) defense. But Belicheck doesn't care rather or not they suceed because the Chiefs aren't going to be challenging the Patriots any time soon anyway. If Cassel and Vrabel turn out good and help out the team, I don't think Belicheck will lose too much sleep over it.
That said I really do feel that time will show that in fact Belicheck made the better of Pioli. Belicheck also intentionally or unintentionally underminded former assistants Eric Mangini (http://www.profootballtalk.com/2009/03/02/cassel-trade-could-force-browns-to-keep-anderson/) and Josh McDaniels(Jay Cutler) through the Cassel trade.

And don't think the Patriots have forgotten about the Bills. Part of why they have so much sucess against them I feel is because they never underestimate them.

The Patriots have been meddling in the Bills affairs as well, not only getting Jaguars running back Fred Taylor but having him say that it wasn't much of a choice between his newest club and the Bills. Then the rumor circulating around that they are "interested" in Laverneous Coles and Jabari Greer. The Patriots have no real need for a player like Coles and are just blowing smoke to drive up his price for his competition (in this case Buffalo). Greer might be more likely an actual target but could also hurt the Bills chance to resign him. That's 3 of  Buffalo's objectives that the Patriots had a hand in coincidentally or not.

But what is scary is not New England's cap room but it's draft room.

They command the 23rd, 34th, 47th, 58th and 89th pick

Second round picks (especially early ones) are usually great value because 1st round talent often will seep down to the 2nd round. As a second rounder the team saves alot of money on rookie contracts and the those players aren't put under the same boom or bust mentality that round one players are. Imagine how much we would be talking about Hardy had he been taken in McKelvins spot (let's say he was higher on the draft board) and then think about how thrilled we would be with McKelvin. With those picks the Patriots could revamp their whole team into potentially something out of a nightmare. And they have enough that they don't need to hit on every one either. But New England has a knack for finding talent. They tend to draft toward need but don't mind a surplus of talent because then they can begin the cycle again by autioning off old talented veterans for more draft picks. And with that many picks don't be suprised to see them auctioned off and some packages put together. If pick 23 or 34 comes around and a player is still around that another team wants, Belicheck usually will give them what they want while getting a better deal for himself.

So what can Buffalo do to counter this? Well some of what Buffalo has going for it is that it is still a fairly young team and as much as people say otherwise there is talent at certain positions. There are also big needs but if those are filled with a smart free agency and a smart draft than I still think Buffalo can be a very good team and even stronger in some areas than New England, such as secondary, running back, and special teams. Where the Bills can become very strong offensively is on the ground, and where the Patriots excel is through the air. Both teams are being built in a very different way but I think if the bills play their cards right they could be challenging for 2nd. Look for the Jets to take a bit of a step back offensively and build a very strong defense under Rex Ryan. I feel that the Jets will look much different and it might take a few years to get good again.
I don't expect the Dolphins to be easy because they have a very tough minded football coach and understand how the Bills defense works (or more appropriately doesn't at times). The Bills are a better team talentwise but aren't coached as well in my opinion.
But I'm very worried about what the Patriots are going to do in the rest of free agency and the draft. They seem to want to settle for nothing less than to rebuild their dynasty with even younger players, and so for Coach Dick Jauron and the Buffalo Bills it's make or break time.