FanPost

Buffalo Bills Draft Day Scenarios

Ed. Note, by Brian Galliford: Bumped from the FanPosts.  More extremely high-quality work from y'all.  Mad props to one of our newest members, PerryTuttle22, for the excellent piece.  Bumped, rec'd, etc.  Enjoy!

There is some general consensus that the Buffalo Bills' four biggest needs heading into the draft, in no particular order, are DE, LB, OL, and TE.  Some may throw SS or DT in there as well but I personally don't believe we are quite as weak at those positions.  I think Bryan Scott is a serviceable strong safety and I have hopes that Bob Sanders is the type of coach John McCargo needs to reach his potential. 

It's likely we will see several if not all four of those need positions addressed in the draft.  You could argue that heading into last years draft our biggest needs were CB, WR, DE, and TE.  And in the first four rounds last year we drafted a CB, a WR, a DE, and a TE.   Go figure.  It's possible, probably doubtful, but possible that our first four selections this year will be DE, LB, OL, and TE, not necessarily in that order.  If we assume that we take only one player from each position in rounds one through four, it creates 24 possible positional scenarios that could play out on draft day.  I thought it would be interesting to take a look at each scenario and see where we get the best overall value. 

Before we do that let's take a look at each of the four positions and some players that are likely to be there when we pick in each round.  This is by no means a comprehensive list but is more meant to be an outline of the quality of player that will be available.  These projections were scientifically formed from a mixture of MIke Mayock's ratings, Wes Bunting at NFP's ratings, Pro Football Weekly's Draft Magazine, my imagination, and some serious boredom at work.

Defensive End Depth
Rd 1 Aaron Maybin, Everette Brown
Rd 2 Connor Barwin, Michael Johnson, Paul Kruger
Rd 3 Lawrence Sidbury, Cody Brown
Rd 4 Phillip Hunt
Linebacker Depth
Rd 1 Clay Mathews, Brian Cushing, Ray Maualuga
Rd 2 Marcus Freeman
Rd 3 Jonathan Casillas
Rd 4 Tyrone Mckenzie, Zach Follett
Offensive Lineman Depth
Rd 1 Michael Oher, Andre Smith
Rd 2 Duke Robinson, Max Unger, William Beatty, Andy Levitre
Rd 3 Antoine Caldwell, Kraig Urbick
Rd 4 A.Q. Shipley, Louis Vasquez
Tight End Depth
Rd 1 Brandon Pettigrew
Rd 2 Shawn Nelson, Cornelious Ingram
Rd 3 James Casey, Chase Coffman, Richard Quinn
Rd 4 Anthony Hill, Bear Pascoe

Much more, including the 24 scenarios promised to you, after the jump.

The first thing that jumps out at me is how top heavy the linebacker position is.  After the first round the quality of talent at that position seems to take a steep drop.  I have to believe if we don't take a linebacker in the first round and someone like Stintim doesn't drop to us in the second we will wait to take a depth linebacker in the late rounds. The Tight End and Offensive Line positions are much deeper in comparison.   And at DE you can still get a decent pass rushing specialist in a later round.   

Using the above positional depth charts lets take a look at the 24 mostly unlikely but possible scenarios.   Again the listed players are there to show the quality of talent available in that round not the specific player I would chose.    For the purposes of this exercise Maualuga would interchangeable with Mathews, Chase Coffman interchangeable with James Casey, etc...

Defensive End in Round 1
Rd 1 DE - Maybin DE - Maybin DE - Maybin DE - Maybin DE - Maybin DE - Maybin
Rd 2 OL - Robinson OL - Robinson TE - Nelson TE - Nelson LB - Freeman LB - Freeman
Rd 3 TE - Casey LB - Casillas OL - Caldwell LB - Casillas OL - Caldwell TE - Casey
Rd 4 LB - Mckenzie TE - Hill LB - Mckenzie OL - Shipley TE - Hill OL - Shipley
Linebacker in Round 1
Rd 1 LB - Mathews LB - Mathews LB - Mathews LB - Mathews LB - Mathews LB - Mathews
Rd 2 OL - Robinson OL - Robinson TE - Nelson TE - Nelson DE - Barwin DE - Barwin
Rd 3 TE - Casey DE - Sidbury OL - Caldwell DE - Sidbury OL - Caldwell TE - Casey
Rd 4 DE - Hunt TE - Hill DE - Hunt OL - Shipley TE - Hill OL - Shipley
Tight End in Round 1
Rd 1 TE - Pettigrew TE - Pettigrew TE - Pettigrew TE - Pettigrew TE - Pettigrew TE - Pettigrew
Rd 2 OL - Robinson OL - Robinson DE - Barwin DE - Barwin LB - Freeman LB - Freeman
Rd 3 DE - Sidbury LB - Casillas OL - Caldwell LB - Casillas OL - Caldwell DE - Sidbury
Rd 4 LB - Mckenzie DE - Hunt LB - Mckenzie OL - Shipley DE - Hunt OL - Shipley
Offensive Lineman in Round 1
Rd 1 OL - Oher OL - Oher OL - Oher OL - Oher OL - Oher OL - Oher
Rd 2 DE - Barwin DE - Barwin TE - Nelson TE - Nelson LB - Freeman LB - Freeman
Rd 3 TE - Casey LB - Casillas DE - Sidbury LB - Casillas DE - Sidbury TE - Casey
Rd 4 LB - Mckenzie TE - Hill LB - Mckenzie DE - Hunt TE - Hill DE - Hunt

 

There are a few scenarios I like, but my favorite is this one:

  1. Clay Mathews
  2. Duke Robinson/Max Unger
  3. James Casey/Chase Coffman
  4. Phillip Hunt

The Tight End class is deep through three rounds so I have no problem waiting until the 3rd to get one. Offensive line is fairly deep as well but is a major need and the 2nd round seems to have the best value for us at that position.

That leaves LB and DE. No doubt we can get an impact player at either position in the 1st round but the talent level at DE is so much deeper in relation to LB that we appear to get more overall value going  LB in the 1st and DE in the 4th. In Mathews we are getting an impact 3-down Linebacker who is versatile enough to provide help with our pass rush. And we would still get a DE with a lot of potential in the 4th.

What's your favorite scenario?   Unfortunately I don't tihnk I can create a poll with 24 options.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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