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The Eleventh Overall Pick: Potential Salary

Last week, I analyzed the last twenty-five years worth of eleventh overall picks.  When investing a high draft pick in a player, you must also invest a high salary as well.  Focusing in on the last five years should give us a pretty accurate look at roughly how much the Bills will end up paying their newest player.

Eleventh Overall
The last five eleventh overall draft picks have been: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Bills; Patrick Willis, LB, Niners; Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos; DeMarcus Ware, OLB, Cowboys; and Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers.  Here are their contract figures according to fantasy site, Rotoworld (unless otherwise noted).

McKelvin - 5 years, $19.4M, $12.6M guaranteed ($3.88M avg.)
Willis - 5 years, $16.655M, $12M guaranteed ($3.3M avg.)
Cutler -6 years, $47.86M, $11M guaranteed ($7.98M avg.)
Ware - 5 year, $13M (according to CowboysBlog.Net) ($2.6M avg.)
Roethlisberger - 6 years, $22.26M (According to Wikipedia) ($3.71M avg.)

The other important consideration to make is playing position (quarterbacks generally get more than linebackers, for example).  The two quarterbacks on this list skew the numbers a little bit, especially Cutler's which includes several massive roster bonuses towards the end of the contract and many incentive-based payouts.  Cutler's base salary over the remaining years of his deal are roughly $1M, $1.4M, and $1.8M, well within the range of the other picks. It probably serves the purposes of this analysis to just ignore the quarterback numbers since we won't be drafting one.

DE, LB, TE around eleven
Last year's number ten pick, Jerod Mayo, signed for 5 years and $18.9M.  The number nine pick, Keith Rivers, was signed for one more year at 6 years, $23M.  Those both average out right around $3.8M a year.  They are both linebackers and earn less, on average, than McKelvin did, though he was drafted one or two spots later.  Defensive end Derrick Harvey, taken at spot eight, signed for 5 years and $23.8M, an average of $4.75M for every year of the contract.  That's how the player's position can come into play. This also shows that drafting a defensive end at 11 would be more expensive than drafting a linebacker at the same spot.  I don't think that comes into play when making a distinction between who to draft because it's a relatively small amount of money over the long haul.

I can only give some correlative info on tight end signings since the last tight end drafted in the top 27 picks was Vernon Davis two years ago.  Last year, Dustin Keller was drafted thirtieth overall, while defensive end Lawrence Jackson went two spots ahead of him.  Jackson signed for $2.25M a year while Keller signed for $1.7M a year.  Tight ends make less than defensive ends, and probably about the same as linebackers, so we'll go on that assumption for now.

What does it all mean?
On average the pay scale goes up about 16% year to year in the same spot.  We'll use that as the starting point.

2008 McKelvin signed for $3.88M Avg. salary
2009 [Future Bill] will sign for about $0.6M a year higher than the year before or $4.45M a year.

If we draft the defensive end the numbers should end up pretty close to the percentage increase.  Cornerbacks and defensive ends are generally paid on the same level. Linebacker or tight end, two lesser-paid positions, should be slightly lower than that.  (Someone give me mad props when I'm right or brutally rip me apart if I am wrong.)  The contracts should shake out at about this level:

DE at 11: 5 years, $22-25M, $4.4M to $5M Avg.  (15-29% increase over 2008)
LB, TE at 11:
5 years, $20-22.25M, $4M to $4.4M  Avg. (3-15% increase over 2008)

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But what does it all mean Bezzel?

Twins bezzel, twins!

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Mar 30, 2009 7:25 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What is the hokey pokey really is what it's all about?

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Mar 30, 2009 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

good post. very informative.

5years 4.5mil for Michael Johnson sounds about right.

by BuffaloChip on Mar 30, 2009 7:44 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That 4.5 is the average.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Mar 30, 2009 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah but we wont be picking Johnson at 11

or at least I highly doubt that we will. I’d take Pettigrew before Johnson at 11.

by CanadianBillsFan on Mar 30, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Really?

I guess I was unaware of, outside of QBs, salary differences for different positions. I just thought it was essentially a sliding scale as you went through the draft. (And I’m not sure you can compare 5 year contract averages with 4 years or 6 years as well as differences in guaranteed money.)

What I’d be interested in seeing is the average cost of draft picks over the first round.

I seem to remember seeing something a couple years ago (football outsiders?) showing a cost benefit analysis of the draft and the pick with the biggest bang for the buck was in the 20s.

by Pistol on Mar 30, 2009 8:42 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah the 20s-40s is the best value pick...

because you get first round players for second round prices.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Mar 30, 2009 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Draft study

Here’s what I was referring to:

http://mba.yale.edu/faculty/pdf/massey_thaler_overconfidence_nfl_draft.pdf

It’s a few years old now, and quite lengthy, but I think it’s worthwhile to flip through.

ESPN magazine did a modified draft value chart last year, but I can’t find that anywhere online.

by Pistol on Mar 30, 2009 9:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That's a full dissertation on the curse of high draft picks!!!

Holy cow. That is awesome. I’ll have to read it later. It’s a little long for right now.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Mar 30, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow. That is an interesting study, really well done. I’d recommend it to anyone that had an hour to waste and was interested in draft picks market value in comparison to overall production.

We are all so keyed into talent evaluation when it comes to the draft it’s easy to forget the economic side of it, and football is mainly a business. Makes you realize why it’s so hard to trade down on draft day.

After reading that I wonder if Belicheck really did choose to go with a high 2nd round pick over a 1st round pick for Cassel. The Patriots always seem to be ahead of the curve when it comes to these things.

You're not drunk if you can lie on the floor without holding on.

by PerryTuttle22 on Mar 30, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I doubt it

For one, he’s used high draft picks in the past – Seymour was #6 many years ago and Mayo was #10 last year.

The other thing is that there’s almost always teams willing to trade up, particularly if the compensation was really low. Teams give up 3rd and 4th round picks to move up a handful of spots all the time. Even if you wanted just a 6th rounder to move down 10 spots I think most teams would jump on it to move up.
——
I think it’d be really fun to see what a team could end up getting pick-wise if they had the #1 pick and continued to trade down 2-3 spots (or less) every time they had a pick, taking the best offer they got, until they got to the 20th pick or so. I’d think that you could end up trading the #1 pick for #20 and get at least two third and fourth round picks in the process. Then you could use those to move up in the second round.

by Pistol on Mar 30, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t think positions have any impact on the contract other than QB.

I’m not sure what Lawrence Jackson and Dustin Keller will have to do with the 11th pick. Is it surprising that Jackson makes more per season? He was drafted first. Same with Harvey compared to the LB’s…

Consider the guaranteed money involved:

8. Derrick Harvey – $17.2M guaranteed
9. Keith Rivers – $15.6M
10. Jerod Mayo – $13.8M
11. Leodis McKelvin – $12.6M
12. Ryan Clady – $11.4M

You can see the sliding scale in place for the most part.

I think the most important thing to look at is the 10-12th draft pick from the past few years to see how the contracts have increased each year.

2006 won’t be used since 2 QB’s were taken with those picks.
2007:
10. Amobi Okoye – 6 year $15.4M, $12.8M guaranteed (poor job by Okoye’s agent)
11. Patrick Willis – 5 year $16.5M, $12M guaranteed
12. Marshawn Lynch – 6 year $18.9M, $10.3M guaranteed

2008:
10. Jerod Mayo – 5 year $18.9M, $13.8M guaranteed
11. Leodis McKelvin – 5 year $19.4M, $12.6M guaranteed
12. Ryan Clady – 6 year $14.75M, $11.4M guaranteed

I think you can see the guaranteed money for this year’s #11 will be about $13.5M. Since it’s the Bills, who look to pay more to their draft pick, I’m guessing it’ll be 5 years $20-21M for the deal. I really don’t see the position as having any effect unless we draft a QB, which isn’t happening.

It’s amazing the deals Leinart and Cutler got in 2006…

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Mar 30, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It’s amazing the deals Leinart and Cutler got in 2006…

Both of their teams thought that they were getting HOFers… joke’s on them I guess.

by CanadianBillsFan on Mar 30, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Positions clearly matter...

McKelvin makes more than Rivers and Mayo and was drafted after them. Harvey was drafgted one spot before Rivers but makes a million a year more. That, to me, signifies a difference based solely on positon. It’s too big of a difference to merely be “he was drafted one spot earlier than me.”

You guaranteed money observation is accurate. The later you are drafted, the less guaranteed money you get. Are you saying I should have looked at this based on the guaranteed part of each contract? If so, the guaranteed contract for our 2009 pick would be 105% of the previous year, about $13.25M guaranteed.

Cutler’s deal is sick. Go look at the roster bonuses that guy gets just for not being cut or restructured.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Mar 30, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also not that it's significant for this conversation...

but the guaranteed money is relatively new phenomenon. Prior to, what, 2000(?) none of the contract was guaranteed.

I think you’re right in that money being on the sliding scale and being obviously important but the total contract, which they are highly likely to play out or get an extension, is important.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Mar 30, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lynch makes more than Okoye, does that mean RB is more important than DT? Or does it mean the Bills pay more for players?

Harvey also held out for a long time, so they may have upped the offer to get him in there. It could also mean Rivers signed too early.

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Mar 30, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

More important, no.

Higher-paid, yes.

Look at the franchise tags. $6.6M for RB, $6.0 for DT. It’s not a huge difference but it’s similar to the the difference I explained up there.

Your theory on certain teams paying more and holdouts is probably valid but not something that can accurately be taken into account in the speculation.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Mar 30, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your theory on certain teams paying more and holdouts is probably valid but not something that can accurately be taken into account in the speculation.

That is true, but you can also say the same about how teams value certain positions…

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Mar 30, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good point.

It’s guesstimating anyways. These numbers will be close come training camp. I’ll come back and say if I was wrong or right. No diggity, no doubt.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Mar 30, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t think either of us would be right or wrong. Honestly, it’s all up to the team and the player/agent for what they’re willing to sign for. We can speculate all we want, and look at prior contracts, but we don’t know how it’ll shake out. For all we know, it’ll be a useless discussion anyways, they could trade out of #11 and mess it all up.

~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"

by Kurupt on Mar 30, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was writing this when Geronimo posted...

so I was going back and forth about looking at OTs. :-)

So many of the mocks we do become useless because of trades.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Mar 30, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Roster bonuses

Are an out for teams to keep out of salary cap problems. For the most part, if they look ridiculous, they are ridiculous and the team lets the player go or restructures their contract. I think Cutler’s are probably manageable, but for the “BLOCKBUSTER” FA contracts that make the news, they are usually laden with those type of bonuses that will never be realized. The guaranteed money is what really matters as far as the value of a contract. That’s what hurt us with Dockery – He got nearly $10 mil per because he was only here 2 years. OUCH. If we had spread his money into roster and other non-guaranteed money, we’d be in a much better situation. That being said, we proably wouldn’t have been able to sign him without the guarantees.

by syrbillsfan on Mar 30, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cutler has a 12M roster bonus as part of the last year of his contract.

Haynesworth deal has a huge one in it in year five from what Peter King reported.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Mar 30, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

???
2008 McKelvin signed for $3.88M Avg. salary
2009 [Future Bill] will sign for about $0.6M a year higher than the year before or $4.85M a year.

Am I missing something? 3.88 + 0.6 = 4.85???

Also, why is Geronimo’s word taken as the word of god around here? I went back and read some of his blogs posted before previous drafts and his “inside info” was way off.

by Khours on Mar 30, 2009 7:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Word of God is a little strong (by the way, God is spelled with a big G) Things change in real time.

He has not hit on everything, true. If I asked you today what you were going to do this weekend, then asked you what you actually did this weekend on Monday, would they be the same? For me, it usually isn’t even close :-)

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rabidly promoted by unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end". - R. J. Wiedemann. Lt.Col. USMC Ret.

by Joe P. on Mar 30, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that is all

irrelevant. sorry, but if you told me what you were doing this weekend i would believe you. If geronimo told me before the 2007 draft that the bills were not targeting a running back or a LB in the first 2 rounds, (which he did post about) I would not believe him. But i get the feeling everyone around here buys whatever he’s selling.

by Khours on Mar 30, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What the hell?!

“INFORMED SPECULATION.” The word “speculation” is right in the title. He’s not a reporter. He has a tie to the team, and shares stuff with us that he knows FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. Nothing he’s ever said has come with a “this is going to happen” attitude.

Please, PLEASE, folks, stop reading too much into it.

Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more

by Brian Galliford on Mar 30, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that is fine

I am taking what he says as speculation. It just doesn’t seem like anyone else does.

No offense on the math correction MattRichWarren, I really wasn’t sure if I was missing something.

by Khours on Mar 30, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dude we take it as specualtion

but it doesn’t mean that we can’t start a good dialogue about it. It’s fun to explore diffrent scenario’s even if they are unlikely. I mean what else is this blog for if not to discuss and specualte about our favorite team?

by CanadianBillsFan on Mar 30, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If I was offended by you catching a mistake....

what kind of person would I be?

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Mar 30, 2009 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

you definitely wouldn’t be the kind of person with a simpsons profile pic!

by Khours on Mar 30, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

True enough.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Mar 30, 2009 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good catch on the math… fixed it. You’ll see below that, however, that Matt used the $4.4M figure it should have been, indicating a typo as opposed to faulty math. :)

Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more

by Brian Galliford on Mar 30, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What a guy.

:-) Even defends me as he fixes my mistake.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Mar 30, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great post Matt. I agree with you that different positions DO get different contracts, but maybe not as much as you guessed. It’s tough to say with any certainty.

One thing that needs to be pointed out is that it is difficult to take any contract at face value. All of these contracts will have a variety of bonuses and escalaters that could easily add up to a mil per season. So it’s really tough to say exactly what kind of contract each potential draft pick will get. You are definitely in the right range if nothing else.

by kaisertown on Mar 31, 2009 12:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That's all I was hoping for...
You are definitely in the right range if nothing else.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Mar 31, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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