Projecting Edwards' 2009 numbers with T.O. in Buffalo
Terrell Owens has made many a pit stop during his long, illustrious and controversial NFL career. If you're returning from a month-long trip to Mars this morning, you may just be hearing that Owens is now a member of the Buffalo Bills. The enigmatic receiver was brought in to help in the Bills' desperate attempt to finally, mercifully, field a winning football team.
The key to any potential progression in the standings, however, still remains in the hands of QB Trent Edwards. There's very little doubt that Owens' presence alone will make Edwards a better quarterback, at least in terms of statistics and reading defenses. What kind of season can we expect from Edwards, and how much of an effect might it possibly have in the win column? Five specific seasons from Owens' past might help us make a crude guess.
In 1997, San Francisco 49ers WR Jerry Rice tore an ACL and missed the vast majority of the regular season. Owens immediately became one of Steve Young's go-to targets in just his second season in the league and made a name for himself that year, catching 60 passes for 936 yards and eight touchdowns.
In 2001, Rice left the 49ers to finish his career with the Oakland Raiders. Owens stepped into the top receiver role, catching 92 passes for 1,412 yards with 16 touchdowns from Jeff Garcia as San Francisco doubled their win total from the 2000 season (they went 12-4).
In 2004, Owens was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles. In his first season in the city he'd eventually alienate, Owens caught 77 passes for 1,200 yards and 14 scores; though he missed the season finale and the entirety of the playoffs, Donovan McNabb led Philadelphia to the Super Bowl - where Owens returned and played extremely well despite a 24-21 loss.
In 2006, Owens became a member of the Dallas Cowboys. It was a season of transition in Big D, however; despite the fact that Owens caught 85 passes for 1,180 yards and 13 scores, the Cowboys made a quarterback switch mid-season, benching Drew Bledsoe in favor of the incredibly unproven Tony Romo.
2007 was Romo's first full season as Dallas' starter. Owens caught 81 passes for 1,355 yards and 15 scores, the Cowboys went 13-3 and Romo was an instant celebrity.
These five years of Owens' career were singled out because of the transition element in all of them - he was either seeing an increased role, switching quarterbacks, or switching teams. Despite all of the change, Owens still managed to average 79 receptions, 1,217 yards and 13 scores in these seasons. That's great news for the Bills. Even if we see a 15% decline in Owens' numbers because of age, diminishing skills, another unproven QB/offensive coordinator, et al, Owens should be in line for a 69-catch, 1,010-yard, 10-TD season. For an offense as anemic as Buffalo's, those numbers would, obviously, be very welcome.
In order to properly measure how much better (statistically) Edwards could be with Owens in town, two steps must be taken: adjusting Edwards' stats to accommodate a full season's play and averaging out the jumps in quarterback production in each of the five Owens seasons detailed above.
Had Edwards played 16 full games last season, he would have completed roughly 63% of his passes for 3,084 yards, 13 TD and 12 INT. His QB rating would have been 85.07.
In 1997 (the year Rice was hurt), Steve Young (while playing in three more games than the previous year) threw for 619 more yards, 5 more touchdowns and saw his QB rating jump by 7.5 points.
In 2001 (the year Rice left for Oakland), Garcia threw for 740 fewer yards than the previous season (which should be adjusted slightly due to the impact of Rice leaving, in our view), threw one more touchdown and two more picks, and his QB rating dipped by close to three points.
Easily the QB to see the biggest spike in production with Owens on board, McNabb threw for 659 more yards, 15 more touchdowns and 3 fewer interceptions in 2004 than in 2003. His QB rating spiked by a whopping 25 points.
In 2006, the combination of Bledsoe and Romo increased QB production in Dallas by 428 yards, 3 TD and, unfortunately, 4 picks. When Romo took over full-time in '07, 133 more yards, 10 more touchdowns, 2 fewer interceptions and 2 QB rating points were added to the '06 totals.
Averaging all of this out and adjusting slightly in certain areas for circumstance, the Bills can expect to see two completion percentage points, 259 yards, 7 touchdowns and 8 QB rating points added to Edwards' projected full-season totals. The simple math puts the rough 2009 Edwards calculation as follows:
65% completions, 3,344 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT and a 93.05 QB rating
Obviously, a lot has to happen to meet that expectation. Both players need to stay healthy for a full sixteen games (cue evil glares in the direction of Jason Peters). Turk Schonert needs to call games consistently. The offensive line needs further fortifications. But using past precedent, the Bills can expect their new receiver to have a solid season, and the effect on Edwards should be quite positive as well.
Oh, and before you ask - in these five seasons, Owens' teams averaged 2.4 more wins than in the previous season. 9-7, here we come!
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Comments
If we’re the odd man, it could be 10-6! Did you happen to look if their was any change on the running side, or is that too many variables?
by syrbillsfan on Apr 1, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I did not. I only have so much free time. :)
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 1, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That right, gotta see the ramifications of Ben’s shooting.
by XtrmeCarnage82 on Apr 1, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL. That and other much lamer things. :)
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 1, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just checking
I also would like to assume that Turk will have learned and grown as an NFL playcaller. I think he has potential and we should give him the benefit of the doubt. I think Turk’s growth will also add a little extra to the offensive production vs last year. The only variable I can think of that needs to be worked out as far as skill positions on offense is what mix do we run most of the time? What I mean is, what wr / te / rb / fb :( alignment is our bread and butter?
Especially if we can grab Pettigrew, I think that begs us to run 3 WR / 1 TE / 1 RB as our base formation for running and passing. That way for passing we’ve got Evans , Owens, and Reed with help from Pettigrew and for rushing we’ve got two good run blockers Pettigrew and Reed on the field. The more plays we can run out of 1 base formation, the less obvious our offense will be. If there is a lesson to be learned by Schonert it is that the key to masking your plays is to do more with less. I think that’s a lot easier than making sure you even out run / pass plays from many different formations (shotgun / i form).
I’m not saying that we can’t / shouldn’t run plays from multiple looks, just I think having a base look to assert your will from gives you more of an identity and obscures the pass / run “tells”.
Also, I will be disappointed if the Bills don’t find some way to get Pettigrew. Having him would smooth over a lot of my concerns about tackles and guards. Doesn’t the thought of having Pettigrew lined up tight on the left next to X OT if he needs to be helped give you a little piece of mind? A lot more than Fine lined up there, anyway.
There I go babbling again
by syrbillsfan on Apr 1, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with your point about doing more with less…sometimes young coordinators out think themselves.
"They're Killin' Me Whitey. They're Killin' Me" -- Lou Saban
by NJBill on Apr 1, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great read and I wondered about that...
Thank you for taking time to put this together.
by hilliarddavid on Apr 1, 2009 1:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great Post
Nice Post. I like the fact that you added in all the variables about Edwards’ youth, and Schonerts’ sometimes questionable playcallling.
My thought may initially sound negative but hear me out. In all of the other situations Owens was the #1 go-to-go guy. (Outside of Jason Witten) To me, that inflated his numbers somewhat. Not taking anything away from the future Hall of Famer, but when your in the mind of your quarterback first, and the ball is continually being sent your way, you’re numbers should and will be higher.
I’m agreeing with you that Owens will definitely help. But I like to key in on his effect on the rest of our receiving corp. Even at worst, if he barely scrapes the 1,000 yard mark grabs around 7-10 tds, with 60 some catches, I still think it will be a great success. I’m looking for Roscoe, Lee, Josh, and Steve to have breakout years.
I can definitely see your prediction coming to fruition as well, and I wouldn’t be complaining a bit. But I just like the threat of all 5 of our guys now, with much more talent for defensive coordinators to scheme for.
by billsct11 on Apr 1, 2009 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Of all of the guys you mentioned (receiver-wise), I think Josh Reed stands to benefit most, simply because of Edwards’ tendency to throw short and Reed’s re-appearance in the slot. If he stays healthy, I think he might approach 70-80 catches. Seriously.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 1, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially with Lee and Owens taking safeties out of the picture.
Josh Reed will be able to claw away at the sweet, soft, defenseless underbelly. I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that Reed could lead the team in catches, Owens in TDs, and Evans in yards and yards per catch. Josh Reed is our pass-catching TE safety valve like Witten was for Romo IMO.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 1, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Add Pettigrew
Now how are looking? :)
by syrbillsfan on Apr 1, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or
can we say 70-80 between roscoe and josh, i think if roscoe stays he still gets looks at the slot, if he has chances to get into open space it is quite awesome to watch him. i dont think he really was every utilized correctly because we never had a real 2nd WR
by jwest529 on Apr 1, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Roscoe has been in the slot before...
and not done anything of note. Roscoe has shown a general inability to get open in space.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 1, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just how many passes will Edwards throw/complete if Reed gets even 70 catches? His arm might fall off. My fear is that this team may mirror what became of the Bledsoe/Moulds/Price trio. Once teams figure out how to stop them, they have to find new ways to get it done.
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"It's not delivery, it's DiGiorgio!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Apr 1, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two words:
Marshawn Lynch. (Okay five: and Fred Jackson)
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 1, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You seem to be implying here that you still think Owens and Evans will catch more passes than Reed. That wasn’t my point. I think Reed has a chance to rival Owens, with Evans catching more toward 50.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 1, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Owens and Evans each catch more passes than Reed next season. I think Reed catches more passes than Parrish, Hardy, Johnson, and every TE on the roster combined next season.
"Buffalo Bills Football 2009 (sponsored by Labatt): A Future as Uncertain as the Beer You’re Drinking"
"It's not delivery, it's DiGiorgio!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Apr 1, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Will we be going 3 WR’s 80% of the time then? I just can’t see Reed getting 60, let alone all the way up to 70-80. Not enough opportunities, especially with better receivers that should be getting the ball more than him ahead of him.
~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"
by Kurupt on Apr 1, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's the safety valve though.
He will catch the underneath stuff when Evans and Owens are double teamed.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 1, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So teams are going to put 4 guys on 2 WR's?
I still don’t see how he’d be on the field enough to catch up to 80 balls as it is…
~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"
by Kurupt on Apr 1, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Five passes per game is possible, but he’ll have to catch every ball thrown his way. He’s had hands of stickum the last couple of years. Regardless of the stats, if healthy, he is poised to have a career year.
"They're Killin' Me Whitey. They're Killin' Me" -- Lou Saban
by NJBill on Apr 1, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Explain to me how they are going to continuously guard Evans and Owens otherwise.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 1, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rush three guys right through our gaping holes at LT and LG?
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 1, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
:)
Maybe the Bills need to “Get Invincible”
by syrbillsfan on Apr 1, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well I'm assuming we can put somebody there...
Even if that guy isn’t remotely capable Edwards will have two seconds to throw the ball somewhere.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 1, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If our offense can stay on the field more
Then I can more stats. I mean, going to the “Broncos will trade jay Cutler” post, it made me compare the Edwards and Cutler stats. Now Cutler ended up throwing the ball over 600 times, while Edwards merely stayed around 350 or so…maybe it would have been 400 if he played all 16 games….but anyhow, if Edwards gets to move the chains more, get some more plays, then I see no reason his stat line should be near your Projection Brian. Its also funny, with the Cutler talk and his big arm and the downfield passing, that he and Edwards had nearly identical avg. of about 7.3 for Edwards, 7.5 for Cutler
The Bills CAN win every game
by killascript on Apr 1, 2009 2:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great read Brian.
This kind of stuff gets me going. Not sexually of course but I really like seeing the numbers and doing projections like this. It gets me all fired up for the offense this year. I think the offense is going to do really well this year, with Jason Peters or without.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 1, 2009 2:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not sexually of course
Where did that come from?
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
by sireric on Apr 1, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In other words,
this kind of stuff isn’t exactly Miley Cyrus kind of material.
Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.
by Fort Worth on Apr 1, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are right, it’s not.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
by sireric on Apr 1, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't want Joe to think"that stuff gets me going" was anything other than "excited"
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 1, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I try not to think to much when reading your posts, Matt :-)
"In 1930, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, in an effort to alleviate the effects of the... Anyone? Anyone? ...the Great Depression, passed the... Anyone? Anyone? The tariff bill? The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act? Which, anyone? Raised or lowered? ...raised tariffs, in an effort to collect more revenue for the federal government. Did it work? Anyone? Anyone know the effects? It did not work, and the United States sank deeper into the Great Depression. Today we have a similar debate over this. Anyone know what this is? Class? Anyone? Anyone? Anyone seen this before? The Laffer Curve. Anyone know what this says? It says that at this point on the revenue curve, you will get exactly the same amount of revenue as at this point. This is very controversial. Does anyone know what Vice President Bush called this in 1980? Anyone? Something-d-o-o economics. "Voodoo" economics." - Ben Stein
by Joe P. on Apr 1, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you (on liking the offense regardless of O-Line)
Especially if we manage to grab Pettigrew in the draft to help our blocking / 3rd down / red zone. Pettigrew would be able to help out on the left side blocking if we had to. It would be hard for a first day draft pick tackle to NOT meet or exceed Peters’ metrics from last year, especially with help.
by syrbillsfan on Apr 1, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And even if TO only gets 50 catches
Expect Lee to have 80-90….and as long as TO has 10+ TDs and we are winning, I think he won’t be bo-hooing too much….but who knows, this offense might just get dynamic. The only thing is, there might be no more than 300 catches to go around tops
The Bills CAN win every game
by killascript on Apr 1, 2009 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Their potency goes waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay down if ’ole Fitzy steps in. Look at how poorly Housh and Johnson did last season for proof of this.
"Buffalo Bills Football 2009 (sponsored by Labatt): A Future as Uncertain as the Beer You’re Drinking"
"It's not delivery, it's DiGiorgio!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Apr 1, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even still, “Fitzy” might flourish in our offense. There are alot of unknowns going into this season in terms of the progression of young players, the tweaks in offensive scheme, and whether we will go up, or way, way….way….waaaaaaaaaaaay down…
The Bills CAN win every game
by killascript on Apr 1, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know what
It actually takes the better part of 8 months to travel to or back from Mars. After being in space that long, I wonder if you could even drop open your jaw in amazement over the Owens signing?
"Buffalo Bills Football 2009 (sponsored by Labatt): A Future as Uncertain as the Beer You’re Drinking"
"It's not delivery, it's DiGiorgio!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Apr 1, 2009 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Honestly, will we really see Trent’s numbers go up all that much? I don’t really expect his ypg to increase that dramatically. I expect us to stick with the run more, isn’t that what we’ve all been asking for?
Where I think TO will help Trent’s stats is TD wise. I think he’ll help open up some bigger plays, maybe even for Evans again. 20 TD’s would be nice, but I’m still not ready to expect that out of Trent. Until he proves it to me and the rest of you, I’ll expect only a slight bump in numbers at most. But if he can really find his rhythm this year, 22-25 TD’s may not be out of reach. I just can’t see it…yet.
The biggest X-factor is our inept OC. If he can move up into the average range, we’ll be much better.
~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"
by Kurupt on Apr 1, 2009 2:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t really expect his ypg to increase that dramatically.
The projection above has him averaging 16 more passing yards per game… ?
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 1, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was talking out loud. It wasn’t so much a response to your projection on that one. Poor clarification by me
~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"
by Kurupt on Apr 1, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree.
Trent threw for about 216 yards per game when you take out the injuries. TO could push that total up over 230. Trent already completed a very impressive 65.5% of his passes and only a hadnful of guys topped that. I think that number is more likely to go down than it is to improve. 7.2 yards per attempt could tick up a few tenths.
Your right that TDs could be the big difference. He didn’t even average one per game last year and that number should easily go over one and maybe all the way to 1.5 per game if he has some big 5 TD game against a crappy team. 1.25 TDs per game (20 on the season) seems very realistic.
I expect Buffalo’s offense to be better next year. More efficient and productive, but I don’t think it’s going to look all that different than last year.
by kaisertown on Apr 1, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Trent’s completion rate goes down a couple of ticks, but YPA and TDs go up, that would be fine with me! That would mean he’s not dumping it off to Lynch/Jackson behind the line ofscrimmage every other play.
by syrbillsfan on Apr 2, 2009 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Bills offense will be more dynamic, I don’t think there’s any question there. To look at it plain and simple, I feel each WR will be able to available to perform where they perform best. TO is great in the red zone, and I think he will get his TDs, which will open up Lee for deep balls, which will open up Josh and Roscoe underneath to move the chains. I’m not predicting three guys with over 70 or so catches necessarily , I just think TO makes the receiving corp all encompassing, as now there is a receiver for each “niche” of the passing game.
by billsct11 on Apr 1, 2009 3:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
16 full games
Brian, I’m just wondering how you came up with Edward’s hypothetical stats, had he played a full 16 games in 2008. I would say that he played in just under 12.75 games, which would make his hypothetical stats more than the ones you gave.
by karovda on Apr 1, 2009 5:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I deflated the total you came up with by a full game for winter effects. Let’s face it – unless he’s playing the league’s worst defense (Denver/Miami), Edwards has done NOTHING in cold-weather games. That’s probably where the discrepancy came in.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 1, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was your April Fool's Joke right?
Not telling us about alteration of numbers… hahahahahahah rofl….
Sorry. I pretty much just hate April Fool’s Day.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 1, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll go even ferther than Brian in predctions
65% completions, 3,344 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT and a 93.05 QB rating
I say that this year is going to be a true breakout yea for Trent. Maybe even Pro-Bowl.
67% completions, 3600+ yards, 24 TD’s, 10 INT, 95+ QB rating
I truly believe that Trent can reach those numbers. I also think Lee Evans will also have a career year due to not being double converd on every play, 1200+ yards. I also think that Owens will have 1100+ yards, good enough for second behind Evans.
Call me an optimist, but I really think it could happen.
by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 1, 2009 5:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mind you this all requires that Trent plays a full 16 games… that part I’m not so confident on.
by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 1, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With 3/5 of the O-line down graded from last year
and no improvement to our defense from free agency, I doubt Edwards will have any meaningful improvement to his stats. Not to mention he will be facing better competion next year. He might pick up some meaningless garbage stats late in the fourth quarter due to games being out of reach. The only way I see him having meaningful improvement to his stats is if by some stroke of luck ( certainly not by the compentence of the current Bills brass) we improve our O-line and find a defensive front seven.
by gjv on Apr 1, 2009 8:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
3/5th's downgraded?
So Hangartner is a step down from the Fowler/Preston revolving door of suck?
Putting whoever in in place of Dockery is a downgrade? I think it’s a wash at worst.
Peters is still here, so until he is traded or actually holds out and then misses games, it’s not a downgrade.
~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"
by Kurupt on Apr 2, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unfortunately yes. Hangartner is a nice career back up. What leads you to believe he can handle the NT in our divsion. I think Dockery is better than whoever. Dockery had to be better than whoever last year to start ahead of him. Do you really think the FO is going to sign Peters? Give the FO the benefit of the doubt and say they do. It will more than likely be too late for the left side to develope properly.
by gjv on Apr 2, 2009 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What leads you to believe he can handle the NT in our divsion.
What leads you to believe he can’t? We haven’t even see the guy play yet!
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 2, 2009 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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