FanPost

A break from Peters and a look at No. 11

Ed. Note by Brian Galliford: Bumped from the FanPosts.  Nice read, MARVelous. End Note

The 2009 NFL Draft is now only a meager nine days away.  Why millions of us NFL fans go bonkers over what amounts to an auction of human lives is beyond me, but all I know is it's in my top three weekends of the year along with the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and my annual trip to Buffalo to see a Bills game.  The anticipation now is higher than ever with the Bills taking a wait and see approach with Jason Peters.  I'm having a hard time killing these last 192+ hours prior to the draft, so I thought I'd put my thoughts down here to help ease the pain.  The point of this FanPost is take a look at the factors that are very fluid right now that will affect what happens to the Bills at No. 11 and beyond on draft day, BESIDES the elephant in the room that is Jason Peters.  A few weeks ago I wrote a tantalizing article regarding how the 3 quarterbacks in this draft (Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman) will have the greatest impact on Buffalo's selection at #11 overall. Mike Florio today had this to say today after reading Rich Cimini's speculation:

According to Rich Cimini of the New York Daily News, Sanchez is likely to be picked between the eighth and the 13th overall selections. With the Jets holding the 17th overall selection, they would likely need to move up to land him.

Here are the teams that hold those picks:

8. Jacksonville
9. Green Bay
10. San Francisco
11. Buffalo
12. Denver
13. Washington

As I speculated a few weeks ago, QB Josh Freeman OR possibly Stafford/Sanchez may still be available when the Bills are on the clock.  Regardless of how the chips fall at QB, I find every situation to have great promise. With ten picks to go before Buffalo, these players are virtual locks to be gone:  Stafford, Eugene Monroe, Jason Smith, Aaron Curry and Michael Crabtree. That means these prospects are all guys that Buffalo would a) draft or b) be in a great position to trade out of No. 11 for: Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Andre Smith, Michael Oher.  Now, of the top DEs - Brian Orakpo, Tyson Jackson, Everette Brown, Aaron Maybin, Robert Ayers - regardless of how you have them graded, one or two are likely to be drafted in the Top 10, leaving Buffalo in a prime position to A) have one of the top 3 quarterbacks fall to them at 11, in which their phone lines will be blowing up OR B) a Top OT prospect (ideally Andre Smith or Oher) would fall into their laps.  WORST case scenario, is they stick it out at 11 and take "their guy" - Robert Ayers, Clay Matthews, Brandon Pettigrew or someone else we haven't identified (a la Donte Whitner, 2006).

What I'm trying to say is that 11 is a great spot especially IF a QB is still available.  We all know the Bills are trying to trade Jason Peters.  Regardless of how that situation plays out, trading out of No. 11 would be the most effective way for the Bills to address their team needs.  In a draft that numerous pundits and NFL insiders have identified as "weak at the top", picking between 15-30 you can find a good, solid NFL starter, at a much more reasonable price tag.  Teams fall in love with quarterbacks.  Some teams get desperate.  Who could those teams be that are desperate to trade up with Buffalo? While they have been accounted for more than a few times on this blog, I give you a refresher - after the jump.

1) Washington - Daniel Snyder missed out on Cutler; leap frogging Denver to trade with Buffalo would nab Sanchez or Freeman.  Buffalo could move back to No. 13 and pick up Washington's fourth round pick and possibly a sixth round pick as well. 

2) Denver - If they fear Buffalo is on the phone with a team that may steal "their QB," Denver could trade up with the Bills and give up a 4 or Tony Scheffler.

3) New York Jets - While many feel it's doubtful we would trade a QB of the future to a divisional opponent, no stone may be left unturned.  We might receive the Jets' 17th pick, their 76th pick (third round) and their fourth round pick (115), or if they were desperate, their 17th and 52nd overall pick in return.

4) Tampa Bay - They could give up No. 19 overall plus their 81st selection (Round 3), 120th selection (Round 4) and their 155th selection (Round 5), which would deplete Tampa Bay's picks, so maybe this isn't too likely.

5) Detroit - If Detroit passes on Stafford and jumps back up to get a QB, trading their No. 20 overall pick, plus their 65th overall (Round 3) and their 82nd selection (Round 3) or a late round selection in round 5-7.

6) Minnesota - My sources tell me the Vikings are infatuated with Kansas St. QB Josh Freeman.  It would be a gutsy move for the Vikings to go up and get him, but for the right price it may happen.  Also, keep your eyes out for the Vikings on the Jason Peters front.  While I have no inside info on if they are interested at all in Peters, the Vikes are desperate for a OT, and Peters would allow Bryant McKinnie to move to RT, a spot he would be much better suited for.  If a trade did occur, the Vikings could give us their No. 22 overall pick, 54th overall (Round 2), plus 158th selection (Round 5), and their Round 7 pick, No. 221.

I used the NFL trade value chart for this analysis.  The bottom line is this: if all 3 quarterbacks go in the Top 10, then hopefully an OT may fall to the Bills at 11.  Even if the Bills don't want that guy (i.e. Michael Oher), it's possible the Bills may be in a favorable position to trade out if a team in the middle teens is desperate to jump up and grab one of the top 4 OT prospects. 

Picking in the Top 10 is not ideal.  Many league insiders have stated that numerous teams are trying to trade out of the Top 10, and with only three viable future franchise signal-callers in the eyes of most observers, that plays into the Bills' favor if a team is desperate to find their franchise QB in this draft.  The Jason Peters situation is admittedly an ugly situation.  He has clearly forced the Bills front office into a nasty situation. However, while discussing Peters ad nauseum is a reason to grab the Pepto, the glass half full says Buffalo is in a very, very promising situation at 11. 

No need to fret, Bills Nation.  While Dick Jauron, Russ Brandon, Tom Modrak and company are losing hours of sleep over Peters and the upcoming draft, there are many positives to look at, the least of which should be noted, is how great a position No. 11 could end up profiting the Bills in compensation, if the right phone rings on draft day. 

Now, I know what a lot of you will say, "that's great, we say that every year, trade down, acquire more picks, et al, but the Bills' front office will not do that! Ever!"  I hear you on that one.  But this situation is different.  Last year Flacco fell all the way to No. 18 before Baltimore went up to get him.  And in 2007, Brady Quinn fell all the way to 22 before the Browns went up to nab him.  But with the Bills in a precarious position with Peters, and desperate to fill team needs, possibly Buffalo's asking price will be lower than usual for the No. 11 pick, if it allows them to fill more holes, to get a competitive product on the field in 2009.

Let's hear the thoughts, analysis, and bullet holes in my intricately laid out argument, as I killed an hour at work. :)

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.