A break from Peters and a look at No. 11

by MARVelous on Apr 16, 2009 3:01 PM EDT Comment 21 comments

Ed. Note by Brian Galliford: Bumped from the FanPosts. Nice read, MARVelous. End Note

The 2009 NFL Draft is now only a meager nine days away. Why millions of us NFL fans go bonkers over what amounts to an auction of human lives is beyond me, but all I know is it's in my top three weekends of the year along with the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and my annual trip to Buffalo to see a Bills game. The anticipation now is higher than ever with the Bills taking a wait and see approach with Jason Peters. I'm having a hard time killing these last 192+ hours prior to the draft, so I thought I'd put my thoughts down here to help ease the pain. The point of this FanPost is take a look at the factors that are very fluid right now that will affect what happens to the Bills at No. 11 and beyond on draft day, BESIDES the elephant in the room that is Jason Peters. A few weeks ago I wrote a tantalizing article regarding how the 3 quarterbacks in this draft (Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman) will have the greatest impact on Buffalo's selection at #11 overall. Mike Florio today had this to say today after reading Rich Cimini's speculation:

According to Rich Cimini of the New York Daily News, Sanchez is likely to be picked between the eighth and the 13th overall selections. With the Jets holding the 17th overall selection, they would likely need to move up to land him.

Here are the teams that hold those picks:

8. Jacksonville
9. Green Bay
10. San Francisco
11. Buffalo
12. Denver
13. Washington

As I speculated a few weeks ago, QB Josh Freeman OR possibly Stafford/Sanchez may still be available when the Bills are on the clock. Regardless of how the chips fall at QB, I find every situation to have great promise. With ten picks to go before Buffalo, these players are virtual locks to be gone: Stafford, Eugene Monroe, Jason Smith, Aaron Curry and Michael Crabtree. That means these prospects are all guys that Buffalo would a) draft or b) be in a great position to trade out of No. 11 for: Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Andre Smith, Michael Oher. Now, of the top DEs - Brian Orakpo, Tyson Jackson, Everette Brown, Aaron Maybin, Robert Ayers - regardless of how you have them graded, one or two are likely to be drafted in the Top 10, leaving Buffalo in a prime position to A) have one of the top 3 quarterbacks fall to them at 11, in which their phone lines will be blowing up OR B) a Top OT prospect (ideally Andre Smith or Oher) would fall into their laps. WORST case scenario, is they stick it out at 11 and take "their guy" - Robert Ayers, Clay Matthews, Brandon Pettigrew or someone else we haven't identified (a la Donte Whitner, 2006).

What I'm trying to say is that 11 is a great spot especially IF a QB is still available. We all know the Bills are trying to trade Jason Peters. Regardless of how that situation plays out, trading out of No. 11 would be the most effective way for the Bills to address their team needs. In a draft that numerous pundits and NFL insiders have identified as "weak at the top", picking between 15-30 you can find a good, solid NFL starter, at a much more reasonable price tag. Teams fall in love with quarterbacks. Some teams get desperate. Who could those teams be that are desperate to trade up with Buffalo? While they have been accounted for more than a few times on this blog, I give you a refresher - after the jump.

1) Washington - Daniel Snyder missed out on Cutler; leap frogging Denver to trade with Buffalo would nab Sanchez or Freeman. Buffalo could move back to No. 13 and pick up Washington's fourth round pick and possibly a sixth round pick as well.

2) Denver - If they fear Buffalo is on the phone with a team that may steal "their QB," Denver could trade up with the Bills and give up a 4 or Tony Scheffler.

3) New York Jets - While many feel it's doubtful we would trade a QB of the future to a divisional opponent, no stone may be left unturned. We might receive the Jets' 17th pick, their 76th pick (third round) and their fourth round pick (115), or if they were desperate, their 17th and 52nd overall pick in return.

4) Tampa Bay - They could give up No. 19 overall plus their 81st selection (Round 3), 120th selection (Round 4) and their 155th selection (Round 5), which would deplete Tampa Bay's picks, so maybe this isn't too likely.

5) Detroit - If Detroit passes on Stafford and jumps back up to get a QB, trading their No. 20 overall pick, plus their 65th overall (Round 3) and their 82nd selection (Round 3) or a late round selection in round 5-7.

6) Minnesota - My sources tell me the Vikings are infatuated with Kansas St. QB Josh Freeman. It would be a gutsy move for the Vikings to go up and get him, but for the right price it may happen. Also, keep your eyes out for the Vikings on the Jason Peters front. While I have no inside info on if they are interested at all in Peters, the Vikes are desperate for a OT, and Peters would allow Bryant McKinnie to move to RT, a spot he would be much better suited for. If a trade did occur, the Vikings could give us their No. 22 overall pick, 54th overall (Round 2), plus 158th selection (Round 5), and their Round 7 pick, No. 221.

I used the NFL trade value chart for this analysis. The bottom line is this: if all 3 quarterbacks go in the Top 10, then hopefully an OT may fall to the Bills at 11. Even if the Bills don't want that guy (i.e. Michael Oher), it's possible the Bills may be in a favorable position to trade out if a team in the middle teens is desperate to jump up and grab one of the top 4 OT prospects.

Picking in the Top 10 is not ideal. Many league insiders have stated that numerous teams are trying to trade out of the Top 10, and with only three viable future franchise signal-callers in the eyes of most observers, that plays into the Bills' favor if a team is desperate to find their franchise QB in this draft. The Jason Peters situation is admittedly an ugly situation. He has clearly forced the Bills front office into a nasty situation. However, while discussing Peters ad nauseum is a reason to grab the Pepto, the glass half full says Buffalo is in a very, very promising situation at 11.

No need to fret, Bills Nation. While Dick Jauron, Russ Brandon, Tom Modrak and company are losing hours of sleep over Peters and the upcoming draft, there are many positives to look at, the least of which should be noted, is how great a position No. 11 could end up profiting the Bills in compensation, if the right phone rings on draft day.

Now, I know what a lot of you will say, "that's great, we say that every year, trade down, acquire more picks, et al, but the Bills' front office will not do that! Ever!" I hear you on that one. But this situation is different. Last year Flacco fell all the way to No. 18 before Baltimore went up to get him. And in 2007, Brady Quinn fell all the way to 22 before the Browns went up to nab him. But with the Bills in a precarious position with Peters, and desperate to fill team needs, possibly Buffalo's asking price will be lower than usual for the No. 11 pick, if it allows them to fill more holes, to get a competitive product on the field in 2009.

Let's hear the thoughts, analysis, and bullet holes in my intricately laid out argument, as I killed an hour at work. :)

This FanPost was written by a registered user of Buffalo Rumblings. Its views do not necessarily reflect the views of Rumblings' editorial staff, but are just as valued as our own.

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Comments

Good stuff, Marv. If top QBs are still there at #11, Buffalo would be out of their minds not to trade down, especially with Denver picking right behind them. Josh McDaniels can talk about Orton all he wants; I don’t think he’d pass on Sanchez.

by Mark Parisi on Apr 16, 2009 3:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Is it just me

Or did McDaniels and Co. really (if possible) screw Denver up even more than it was when they arrived? They had a decent offense going there, they just had a lot of injuries last year. Their defense was terrible. Is the answer to a BAD defense, “Maybe we should use our valuable draft picks in a trade for Matt Cassel, thereby disillusioning our current starting QB?”

Crazy!

by syrbillsfan on Apr 17, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So, if Minny would go for a trade back/Peters deal, would Detroit look for that as well?

Excellent write-up Marv, I’m glad you put off any and all TPS reports for an hour.

Penn Staters belong at Penn State. The problem with a lot of kids is they just don’t know they are Penn Staters yet.

Noli nothis permittere te terere.

by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Apr 16, 2009 4:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great read, rec'd

We have a lot of options out there, and while I think that we’re probably not going to get as much as you say back for our 11th pick, it would be nice to drop 6-7 spots and still get a great pick. I see Washington as being the ideal trade partner; not only would we get an extra pick, but the likelyhood of one of the top 4 OT’s or top DE’s still being there at 13 is VERY good seeing as how Denver has much different needs than we do (they have decent DE’s and don’t need a tackle), making it a possible trade even if we trade Peters.

by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 16, 2009 4:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Even if Denver took a DE, it should be Tyson Jackson, who wouldn’t fit on the Bills defense in my opinion anyway.

by Mark Parisi on Apr 16, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly, that why Washington would be IDEAL… now if we can only convince them of that.

by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 16, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've waisted many hours of work reading Rumblings posts...

and this was a good one. As I stated in my post yesterday I just want Peters traded and out of our hair. Trading down would be nice if there’s a top 3 DE or OL still available but I wouldn’t want to drop back too far. Adding extra picks would definately be a bonus because of the depth players we could add. And as we saw the last few drafts, almost every draft pick made the opening day roster except for Cox and Ah You the previous 2 years. And with those extra picks, if we can grab a starter / playmaker or 2 the better off we’ll be.

by Teaters33 on Apr 16, 2009 4:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great Analysis -- love the Scheffler idea!

The Tony Scheffler to move one spot (prevent someone else) is a great thought! That would be great — get Scheffler, draft Andre Smith with the 11th, trade Peters for the 20th and a 3rd, pick up Brown/Maybin/Cushing with Philly’s 20th pick, then grab Mack/Unger/Wood with the 2nd rounder.

by labill on Apr 16, 2009 4:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i would be incredibly happy with scheffler on our team in exchange for a few spots down in the draft. he’s not much of a blocker, but he’s a heck of a receiver, and adding him means that the team doesn’t have to worry about offense for a while. he’s young, relatively smart on the field, and would be a huge upgrade from what we’ve got now for opening day.

by the_prophet on Apr 16, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Plus we could still draft a OT and draft a DE with the pick we’d get from the Peters trade. I think Washington is a better deal, but getting Schfler would be great.

by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 16, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Labill

I hope this happens man. i would be one happy camper. to build on it we pick up either hunt or mckenzie to fill out whatever we didnt take at twenty and boom. Lt, lg, de, te and olb are covered. draft a space eating DT. a project SS and a running back and we are good to hook.

Wearing this Jumpsuit, my new Nikes and drinking the Bill's flavoured Kool-Aid pretty much all my life.

by Stabby Mcshank on Apr 16, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Detroit has no 4th or 5th round picks. If they were to give Buffalo #20, #65, and #82 they would have #1, #11, #33, a pair of 6th rounders and the second to last pick in the draft. You don’t rebuild a team with 6 picks. Of course, we are talking about the Lions here… Still, they are highly unlikely to trade up for #11. I can see them being somewhat more likely to trade for Peters before the draft, perhaps #20 straight up (or, less likely #33 and #82) as that would give them #1, Peters, #33, #82, two 6th rounders and one seventh.

The Vikings are in the same sort of situation. If they moved up to #11 by giving Buffalo #22, #54, #158 and #221 all they would have would be #11, #86 and #231. I think I’d fire Childress for even suggesting it.

The Denver deal would be sweet but I don’t know that I see them giving up Scheffler just to move up one spot. I’m guessing they’d want something in return besides #11.

by Ron From NM on Apr 16, 2009 7:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cincy

Here’s a thought: Peters and #11 for #6, #38 and #70.

The Bengals would have #11, Peters, #98, #106, #142, #179, #209, #215, #249, #252.

The Bills would have #6, #38, #42, #70, #75, #110, #147, #183, and #220.

Instead of taking a chance (not that they’re adverse to that…) on a potential fatboy/headcase in Andre Smith at #6, the Bengals get Peters. They also still have the #11 to add a playmaker or trade. Thanks to their pile of compensatory picks, they still have a 3rd rounder as well. The Bills are pretty much assured of getting Andre Smith (who is reportedly the top OT on OBD’s board) at #6 and add early second and third rounders. It’s win-win.

Since it would be a package deal (Peters and #11 for picks) it would either have to be done before the draft or the Bengals would really have to trust in their ability to sign Peters and that he was going to check out as healthy.

by Ron From NM on Apr 16, 2009 7:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and ‘points wise’ Peters would be costing the Bengals about 1100, or a mid first round pick.

by Ron From NM on Apr 16, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Andre smith at 11 is alot cheaper than at 6. Anybody in the top 10 is more $ than OBD would like to pay.

by dzil on Apr 16, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Andre Smith may well not be there at #11, particularly if the Bengals don’t have a solution at LT.

by Ron From NM on Apr 16, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

the more and more i read these posts about what we are going to do the more and more i cannot stand not knowing what OBD is thinking. I wish they could possibly give us a little insight on what they wanna do or what guy they like the most.

by danntheman on Apr 16, 2009 8:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Marv – great bunch of words here. Thanks….

by krytime on Apr 16, 2009 11:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

2) Denver – If they fear Buffalo is on the phone with a team that may steal “their QB,” Denver could trade up with the Bills and give up a 4 or Tony Scheffler.

That would just be excellent. Getting Scheffler for “free”, for the most part. I would absolutely love OBD for once if they pulled that off.

Good writeup Marv, I enjoyed it.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Apr 17, 2009 1:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed... I would love that too.....Well done Marv!

"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker

by Joe P. on Apr 17, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Glad I could entertain

I seriously cannot handle all this down time till the draft….Next week at work is going to be absolutely worthless….that’s what I hate about the draft. I wish it was this weekend and not a week later……Oh well. My hope is that the Bills trade Roscoe for a 4th or 5th and use that pick to acquire Scheffler if we are going to miss out on Pettigrew. We need an NFL ready player, not a TE that will be hit or miss. Pettigrew and Shawn Nelson are the only guys I see playing right away in the Bills block heavy TE offense

MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens

by MARVelous on Apr 17, 2009 11:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs