Some informed speculation
by Geronimo on Apr 17, 2009 12:09 PM EDT
Email
PrintLike everybody here, I'm just counting down the days until the 25th to see how things are going to turn out. I thought I'd share a bit of what I know as of a week before the draft, but would say at the outset, that as of this moment, this post wil contain FAR more speculation than hard "information." I will try and differentiate between the two when I can, so that you are totally free to draw your own conclusions.
First--I thought it may be helpful to do a brief overview of exactly how the Bills put their Board together--I think I did this last year as well, and I apologize if this is repetitive. First, as you all know, the whole process is somewhat circular and goes on year-round literally. For example, Bill's scouts will be attending College Spring Games and practices this weekend getting ready for the 2010 Draft. However, as a starting point, at the conclusion of the College Bowl season and then the Combine, every Bills Area scout puts a grade on all the draft-considered players in their geographic area. The scouts grades are then reevaluated by their national cross-checkers who work across the country and look for seeming aberrations or to provide a second pair of eyeballs. Now the grades get kicked up a bit. Tom Modrak grades everybody. The Bills position coaches grade only those players in their specific position and don't bother with tape of anybody else. Fewell and Turk grade all defensive/offensive players depending on position, and DJ, like Modrak grades everybody. The grades are all addded and averaged and voila--a consensus ranking is established. All "character" issues are built into the grade (points taken off depending on the degree of 'the issue.') by the way--so they are inherent in the final grade so as to avoid any "on-the-clock" wrangling about that. They're built in. They will actually give grades to about 100 more players than will actually be drafted---here's where the UFAs will be signed from. There really isn't a lot of chit chat between the 32 teams as players are evluated and graded, but I do know for a fact that among the fraternity of assistant positional coaches they are always talking with each other---conversations like, "what did you have this guy at," simply as a means to double check their own sanity and make sure they haven't "fallen in love" with some bordeline player.
The Board is pretty much complete as we speak although there are always last-minute adjustments. On Thursday and Friday of this week, the entire organization will get together and will start playing "war games," e.g., 'what if scenarios. They do this for almost two full days, and in a typical year will go into the Draft feeling well prepared for virtually any scenario. In the War room will be DJ, Modrak, Brandon, Ralph, Fewell, John Guy and Turk. A smaller crowd than most teams.
HOWEVER, I have to tell you, this is NOT a typical year, by any stretch of the imagination. The entire Peters thing hangs over the organization and to say that things are fluid would be an understatement. As many others have accurately pointed out, he and his agent have put the Bills in a very bad predicament, and one which I KNOW OBD would like to resolve as quickly as possible. I do KNOW that talks with Det./Philly and others have been held--but would call them preliminary and no doubt things will heat up during the coming week. The same for Roscoe, although that is clearly less of a priority.
I can certainly say with a straight face that there is NOBODY right now who can predict with certainty what will happen next weekend. The folks at OBD can't. What if Peters is dealt? For what? What is he isn't? Same with Roscoe. I thought that MARVelous did a nice job in his recent Post about covering plausible "trade down" possibilities. There are more variables this year than in any other I can recall.
With all this said, let me make a few well, kind of predictions. I reserve the right to change my mind depending on new information as we get close to the 25th.
I will bet 90-10 that Peters will be dealt. The Bills are HUGELY motivated and may end up taking less than what we would like. His contract demands are high and the acquring team will have to consider that. BUT--we need definition on the LT situation and I am betting we get it by next Saturday evening. I believe that at least right now, Det. is the most interested
I think Roscoe will be dealt. I have NO idea what his value is as a draft pick. This is MY opinion though and comes from nowhere else. I do KNOW that OBD and KC spoke over the Free Agency period. Let's not forget that Scott Pioli once sent a 2nd AND a 7th to the Dolfs for Wes Welker. He saw how important Welker was to Matt Cassell this past year. He is also very familiar with Roscoe, his athleticism and playmaking ability and may fancy him another Welker--which as a receiver he is nowehere near to. This year's draft is deep in the O-Line. If they want to send us an unhappy Waters for Roscoe--I am all over that.
Ok--the question everybody wants to know--who will we take? I really don't know because OBD does not really know at he moment. I hope to provide more intel later in the week based on more info, but here is what I would speculate on. And yes, on an informed basis. Assuming that Andre Smith is not available (OBD doesn't think we should or will be) I believe that only three folks are being strongly considered. Robert Ayers, Pettigrew and Clay Matthews, Jr. I have my own favorite as I'm sure you do. I'd be vey happy with one, happy with another and OK with the third. But let's leave that for the next post.
I think you'll see a minimum of two, but more likely three O-Lineman taken. I believe that these will be a slight change in how they have traditional evaluated O-Lineman. Less emphasis on sheer size, and more on kiss-ass toughness and meanness. They screwed up on Dock--and to this day aren't really sure why he digressed so terribly badly--but there is a school of thought that he was just too "nice," Butler, for example, is not "nice."
I have gone on far too long with limted information so I will stop.
All Best,
Geronimo
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
66 comments
|
11 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I think you’ll see a minimum of two, but more likely three O-Lineman taken.
Where did I hear that before? Oh yeah right here.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
haha
you are a great prognosticating mind! Plus you got to toot your horn when you’re right occasionally:)
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
Please he toots on his horn all to much already
If the Bills were a drug, I could only hope they were like speed so I could lose some weight as well.
That is what a wife/girlfriend/friend with benefits is for man....
Leave horn tootling out of Rumblings…. :-P
If the Bills were a drug, I could only hope they were like speed so I could lose some weight as well.
I hope he is for his coworkers sake...
If the Bills were a drug, I could only hope they were like speed so I could lose some weight as well.
Not at work, I am officially a stay at home dad these days.
My pants are on now, but once the draft starts like my pants, all bets are off.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
Then for the children's sake at least!
If the Bills were a drug, I could only hope they were like speed so I could lose some weight as well.
The wife finally listened to me and is taking my daughter and going to visit a friend out of state. I will have the place all to myself draft weekend.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
Just get here before it starts. I don’t want to answer the door when the Bills pick is in.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
Np, I will make sure to fly in for that
I wish I could do that too…. it would be a blast to do that on a weekend. Well, if I get a house next year in Upstate NY maybe I’ll invite as much of the inner circle as can come over for a party….
Hmmmm, better make sure the wife is out of town during that….
If the Bills were a drug, I could only hope they were like speed so I could lose some weight as well.
awesome post
very interesting, wherever you get your info from. The fact that KC is interested in Parrish and the whole Welker thing I didn’t even think about, but I think KC will want a little more for their all pro guard. However, I’d only see Waters coming here if we got rid of Peters because then we’d have a whole left side of the line that would want new deals (although Waters would definitely get less money as a guard).
One question, though. Why do you think the Bills see more upside with Mathews over Cushing? From what I read, Cushing is more of an every down LB that is good against the run and can get to the passer, while Mathews is more suited for 3rd down pass coverage (which I guess is better for the Tampa 2). Do they really feel like he could develop those skills further and what separates him from Cushing?
P.S. I love the mean Offensive line thought. That “meanness” is something this team has definitely lacked in the past few seasons.
Don't forget to pay the troll toll...
P.S. I love the mean Offensive line thought. That "meanness" is something this team has definitely lacked in the past few seasons.
I loved the line about Brad Butler. That really made me want to watch some freaking football.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Apr 17, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd be happy with 3 linemen taken
I’d prefer them to do that almost any year – 2 for sure – especially in the early rounds.
Peter’s is a lammo – he can be a lammo somewhere else. what a noddle head and a doody head and a jerk and a elton john look alike. Captain Lame of the Lame Ship from the Lame port over in Lamesville from Lame County in the Lame Country. Lame
I could see them reaching on Petti – but lets be honest – any speculation is tough to backup because of the Peters situation. This needs to be resolved so we can move on and us fans can formulate our real case scenario mock drafts and OBD can do their work more diligently. I actually feel bad for them for the position that Peters is putting them in but that comes with the job – I have confidence in them to pull out of this thing and still look solid. time will tell
I would LOVE for Pioli over pay for Parrish – if we can get a 3rd for him i’d be very happy!
The rest of you go get the goods on Stan. His mom grounded him once for setting something on fire. Let's find out what that something was and then lie and say it was a puppy.
I believe that at least right now, Det. is the most interested
I too believe this. I think with Detroit going for a Stafford at one, they would die for a chance to give their future a Pro Bowl protector on the blind side. To me, getting #20 is not so far fetched. When you say getting less than we may like, I’d say getting a first and no other pick for Peters is getting less than we’d like. Still, Peters for #20 is better than Peters for a 2nd and 4th any day to me.
I also agree that Pioli would love to acquire Parrish and get rid of Waters. The idea got me excited when it was first mentioned and I don’t see why many think the potential there is dead water. I would part with Parrish and a 6th for Waters. Maybe even a 5th.
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
I’d say getting a first and no other pick for Peters is getting less than we’d like. Still, Peters for #20 is better than Peters for a 2nd and 4th any day to me.
where do I sign up?
The rest of you go get the goods on Stan. His mom grounded him once for setting something on fire. Let's find out what that something was and then lie and say it was a puppy.
well, there goes that.
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
yeah no kidding – the trades fine by me – gets him off our team we still get a first – not great but good
The rest of you go get the goods on Stan. His mom grounded him once for setting something on fire. Let's find out what that something was and then lie and say it was a puppy.
by J2 on Apr 17, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
re
thanks G. Always a privilege to get some insight from you. I really, really, really, really want an extra 1st round pick. Because if we could get Robert Ayers AND Brandon Pettigrew I would be the happiest man on the planet come draft day. I think with how good our OL coaches have proven to be at developing OL, drafting 2-3 OL in the middle rounds would be sufficient. I actually hope Smith or Oher aren’t available at #11 cuz I want Ayers.
There are a million possible scenarios which is what makes this draft so damn exciting. If the Bills can find a way to get 3 picks in the top 42, I think we all will be feeling so much better about the 2009 season.
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
I have my own favorite as I’m sure you do. I’d be vey happy with one, happy with another and OK with the third. But let’s leave that for the next post.
Gah, I hate cliffhangers. :)
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Apr 17, 2009 12:48 PM EDT reply actions
And yet you love Lost. The show that is one giant cliffhanger.
You're not drunk if you can lie on the floor without holding on.
by PerryTuttle22 on Apr 17, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, I know I’m a filthy hypocrite.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Apr 17, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Rec'd
LOVE reading your speculations Geronimo. Though, I also wonder why you think the Bills are higher on Mathews than Cushing. I know Mathews has the genetics built in, but he had only one year of true production to go on at USC. I feel like Cushing is the more NFL-ready LB, where Mathews has the greater future potential, but also the higher probability of being a bust. Plus, there’s that whole “White Power” group he started on facebook, supposedly a joke. But, I can see Mathews having to answer some questions about a group committed to “killing black babies before they can become criminals.”
I’m totally pi$$ed off about the whole Peters thing. Bottomline, I’d love to keep him if we can, but I’m tired of all the drama. I think if we can’t find a fair deal for him, and he continues to over-value his own worth, we should keep him on the roster, let him hold out, and when he reports, just sit him and don’t play him. The Bills need to show they won’t be held hostage, and they can completely ruin his future contract value by making him inactive for the next two years. (Anyone remember what we did to Angelo Crowell because he had surgery a week before the season?) Can’t think of anyone who would want a head case with a bad attitude who hasn’t played competitive football in 2 seasons.
My two cents. I like Ayers a lot, I’m hoping in a pipe dream Orakpo will fall to us (McShay’s most recent draft has him falling all the way to 10 to San Fran). I still think the DE class is deep and we can get talent in the 2nd round. Geronimo might agree, no matter what the draft strategy, I’ve seen the Bills go for the best available player according to their board, rather then a need for the last 4 years (See Donte Whitner, Trent Edwards, Ashton Youboty, etc.) They’ll take they’re highest rated player, whoever that is.
Plus, there’s that whole "White Power" group he started on facebook, supposedly a joke. But, I can see Mathews having to answer some questions about a group committed to "killing black babies before they can become criminals."
You know that was Matthews and Cushing, right?
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Apr 17, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
keeping it classy huh? I hadn’t heard that – meh
The rest of you go get the goods on Stan. His mom grounded him once for setting something on fire. Let's find out what that something was and then lie and say it was a puppy.
by J2 on Apr 17, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
<a href="http://media.www.dailytrojan.com/media/storage/paper679/news/2007/03/08/News/Facebook.Group.Lands.Usc.Football.Player.In.Hot.Water-2764591.shtml" >Link
It sounds like something that was an inside joke for the football team. I don’t think that Matthews is a racist, just not smart for starting the group when he is trying to get drafted. A little better judgment could have been used, these guys have to remember that they are under a microscope already and need to be smarted.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
Matthews
I believe that they think Matthews upside is significant;ly higher, he’s more versatile and can also come off the edge on third down better than Cushing. Plus he lives for football. I’ve heard that Cushing is “weird” but honestly I have no idea what that means.
If they can’t deal Peters, I’d do EXACTLY as you suggest. Let him sit out, show up for the 10th game for the next couple years, deprive him of his best earning years as well as the potential for the “huge” contract he thinks he deserves. I really doubt it will come to that however.
Geronimo
Yeah I know
But Mathews started the group, and Cushing was just one of many members. I guess in my mind, founding the group is better than being just a member of your friend’s group who might find it funny. I guess I just feel Cushing would have a less hard time getting that to be disassociated with him than Mathews would. Stupid situation for both of them to have put themselves in.
This is all news to me. If true, I don’t care what light it was meant, I want NOTHING to do with either of these guys. Racism is no joke, and they should be ashamed of themselves and I hope it costs them dearly.
"It's not delivery, it's DiGiorgio!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Apr 19, 2009 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Peters
Is on his way to Philly to meet management I just learned…..hopefully this whole sad saga will be over soon.
Geronimo
1st (#28) and a 4th ?
is that what you are hearing too G?
Question
If Peters gets traded (anywhere not just to the Eagles) and signs a new deal for anything less than $11 Million a year how pissed will everyone be?
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
honestly?
I wouldnt be. I would actually just be happy to be done with this and rejoice in the fact that the saga is over and we can move on with young players that “want” to be here.
"If winning isn't everything, why do they keep score?"
~Vince Lombardi~
Not anymore than I already am at Peters
That just means he didn’t want to play for the Bills. As much as I think Peters is worth more than a mid-first round pick, I think that is about all we will get for him. Anything more than that is a bonus!
"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker
Amen and pass the biscuits please!
If the Bills were a drug, I could only hope they were like speed so I could lose some weight as well.
Thanks for posting G
kiss-ass toughness
I don’t usually comment on mispelling, but that was just too funny. I assume you meant kick-ass.
"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker
Thanks G
Love your info, as always.
First off:
I have my own favorite as I’m sure you do.
If there’s anything you should have learned from us by now, it’s you can’t make these type of comments with out giving us your answer!!!!! Brian’s right, I hate cliffhangers! I hope you’ll post your “pick” soon.
I wish you wouldn’t get our hopes up for a KC trade! Getting Waters for Parrish would be unbelievable, and would really help us stay afloat with Peters gone.
If Andre Smith isn’t available, do the Bills pick Oher, in your opinion? Do they even like him? If we can’t get either of those guys, what CAN the Bills do to solve their OT woes? They can’t really count on Chambers/Bell.
I’m not sure if it’s ever been addressed, but this front office doesn’t seem to ever trade down for more picks. Is that just a coincedence or is it something that is part of their draft strategies?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
I couldn’t put it into words how much I wish I could be at OBD watching the inner circle play “war games” for a couple of days and go over all those scenarios. That is pretty freakin cool that they do that.
I’d be shocked if Parrish’s value is higher than a 4th round pick. Welker is a terrible comparison to Parrish. Welker was coming off a 67 catch season when New England traded for him. Parrish has 97 catches in a four year career. A team that trades for Parrish is going to consider him to be an elite punt returner and that will be the only reason somebody makes a move for him. That said, there were 9 teams that averaged 8 or fewer yards per punt return last year and KC was one of them, averaging a pathetic 6.5 yards per return. Buffalo averaged 15.5 per return. Pittsburgh, Dallas, Indy and Chicago also averaged less than 7 yards per return and could be options. Dallas in particular strikes me as an aggressive team who could use another receiver to compete with Austin Miles and Sam Hurd for snaps as the 3rd and 4th WR.
G or Brian....
Any more updated news on the Parrish situation? I know its not a great need to trade off Parrish, but, I am wondering with the trade of Peters how we are standing on the Parrish end as well.
"If winning isn't everything, why do they keep score?"
~Vince Lombardi~
trading Parrish for Waters
would really alleviate some of the pain from losing Peters.
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
By a lot, that would help out whomever is going to play LT
Esepcially if we can get a beast blocker like Pettigrew to pair on the outside with him. Imagine going Jumbo set with these guys:
Pettigrew-A.Smith or Oher-Waters-Harngarter-Butler-Walker-Fine
That line would be nasty and would roll up alot of yardage on 3rd and short wouldn’t it?
If the Bills were a drug, I could only hope they were like speed so I could lose some weight as well.
that line is an upgrade than last years!
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
I actually think that trading Peters makes Buffalo less likely to move Parrish. If one of the reasons to trade Parrish is because he makes 3 mil this year then it should be less of an issue now that the team doesn’t have to resign Peters. Roscoe makes a very reasonable 1.5 mil in 2010 and 2011 before becoming a free agent right about the time he should be starting to decline in 2012.
I think a trade for Parrish is more likely to happen on or very close to draft day because Buffalo can afford to wait and see how the situation plays out. They can pass on a decent deal today in hopes of getting a better deal during the draft.
before becoming a free agent right about the time he should be starting to decline in 2012.
Given how little he has produced, I would hate to see what pathetic numbers a Parrish in decline would put up.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
Logjam at WR
It’s not the money but rather the roster spot that makes Parrish trade bait. The Bills typically carry 6 WRs and currently have, Evans, Owens, Hardy, Reed, Johnson, Jenkins, Parrish, Huggins and Hawthorne on the roster. The last two figure to be the first ones cut. The only way Parrish stays is if either Johnson or Jenkins goes. Why not get something of value from Parrish now?
Roscoe is far more valuable than Jenkins is.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
I don’t think Ron is saying Jenkins is more valuable than Parrish, but Parrish’s value makes him trade bait. Who/what are you going to get for Jenkins? No one. But with everyone else ahead of Parrish and the value that Jenkins has on ST, it makes it possible to trade Parrish and get something useful (another pick or package him with a pick to get OG Waters).
by thefourwinds on Apr 18, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Especially if we add a threat like Pettigrew
Yeah he won’t wow you down the seam, but he WILL go over the middle allowing us to pair him up with Josh “move the chains” Reed for a formidable over the middle duo and with Owens also being good at slants, thats a good arrangement. And once Owens leaves, we have Scuba Steve to take that role over, so we are not in bad shape at all.
Bet you we take a return specialist CB or WR late in the draft.
If the Bills were a drug, I could only hope they were like speed so I could lose some weight as well.
Considering how mediocre Jenkins looked as a gunner last year, I think the team is better off without him. When given the chance last year, Steve Johnson looked better on specials than Jenkins did. I don’t think roster space is that big of a factor.
I think the team re-signed Jenkins. Why do that if they don’t intend to keep him around? I agree with the comments along the lines of Jenkins being nothing special but why not just let him walk?
I wouldn’t read into the signing too much. It happened before we brought TO in and there was probably a tiny signing bonus (if he got any guaranteed money at all). Buffalo loses nothing by giving him the contract he did, so the deal doesn’t really mean anything other than that Buffalo wants him in training camp. I think he’s a long shot to make the team if the WRs stay healthy and Johnson excels as a punt gunner as much as I think he will.
Exactly
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
A lot of the logic is that I have a lot of faith in Steve Johnson to be a good punt gunner. And the Bills have other options beyond him and Wendling even if Jenkins is cut. George Wilson is the obvious back-up plan, but I think that Youboty makes a nice 4th option with players like Ko Simpson, Blake Costanzo, John DiGiorgio, Drayton Florence, Bryan Scott or even Josh Reed available in a pinch.
I agree
with Stevie as a gunner. I thought, in his limited action, he was better than Jenkins was in his full-time role at gunner. He sure seemed to make more plays in that short amount of time….
Wendling, Youboty, drafted SS, Corner, Stevie all seem like good choices to gun.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Great read, G- informed or not, I always like your speculation.
Small request, though- can you name your posts something slightly different each time? I didn’t click on this one because I thought it was the old one still…sorry for being nit-picky.
Penn Staters belong at Penn State. The problem with a lot of kids is they just don’t know they are Penn Staters yet.
Noli nothis permittere te terere.
by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Apr 21, 2009 11:19 PM EDT reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
SBNation.com Recent Stories
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- Mark Sanchez’s rumored squeeze, Kate Upton, is on cover of Sports Illustrated’s swimsuit issue
- ‘Twould be a shame if Hines Ward didn’t retire a Steeler
- Video: Tim Tebow asked to Military Ball by Louisiana Airwoman
- We’ll see how Brandon Jacobs’ football skills translate to the squared circle
- Bill Belichick wore a hoodie to a golf tournament
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
