Seven Bills sweating the NFL Draft
by MattRichWarren on Apr 21, 2009 10:00 AM EDT
in 2010 NFL Draft
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Prior to the opening of the NFL's free agency period, Brian made a list of Buffalo Bills players whose jobs and roster spots were on the line heading into the opening days of free agency. Almost immediately after that post aired, one Bill on the list, TE Robert Royal, was given his walking papers. He also mentioned that Roscoe Parrish could become expendable if the Bills addressed their WR corps. Low and behold, it seems the Bills are at the very least exploring that very idea. We have talked at length (and will continue talking at length) about who we could add to this team, but who do they in turn bump off come training camp cuts? Here are the seven Bills with the most to lose this coming weekend.
FS Ko Simpson
Once considered the future at the free safety position, Ko Simpson has been replaced in the starting lineup by draft classmate Donte Whitner, been arrested this off-season, and done little on the field since his rookie campaign. There is a strong likelihood that the Bills will draft one safety, and Simpson would be the odd man out in August.
DT John McCargo
He was traded last season, so it's hardly a surprise to see John McCargo's name on this list. By all accounts, his off-season work has been great at One Bills Drive - he has a new position coach, and may be turning a corner in his lackluster career. The Bills should be looking at the long-term replacement for the 30+ year old Marcus Stroud. If the Bills feel he has not made the improvements necessary to get on the field this year and be that potential answer, it's likely he will be replaced in the draft and cut by opening day.
DE Chris Kelsay
Word has come that the Bills are exploring the idea of trading Kelsay. With the likelihood of adding one or more defensive ends in this year's draft, Kelsay's age, lack of production, and salary make him a prime target for downsizing. If the Bills add more than one DE, look for Kelsay to be moved to make room in the rotation. At the very least expect his role to be reduced this fall.
TE Derek Fine
Derek Fine seems well-situated to be the opening day starter at tight end. Unless the Bills draft another player who could come in and start right away, that is. Fine has sat and learned for a year, and now when he is on the cusp of taking over the job he may have it taken away from him. The Bills will add a tight end in this draft, but will it be for depth behind Fine to compete for his starting job?
LB Keith Ellison
Like Fine, Keith Ellison needs to worry about his starting job, but not his spot on the roster. Ellison provides great depth and special teams ability, but if the Bills spend a high pick on a linebacker he won't be starting anymore. As an unrestricted free agent following this year, it's Ellison's last chance to make an impression on the Bills or any other franchise willing to give him a nice pay day. It's hard to do that sitting behind a rookie.
OL Kirk Chambers
Kirk Chambers has been penciled in as the new starting guard since the release of Derrick Dockery. Now following the trade of Jason Peters, Chambers' name is flying all over the line as he has displayed the ability to play most spots in a pinch. There is, however, a very real possibility that he could be passed over for a starting job at every spot and remain that "jack of all trades" style backup after this weekend's draft. While he wouldn't be losing his spot on the team, he certainly could be losing his precarious starting job at tackle and/or guard.
SS Bryan Scott
Already a free agent at the end of the year, Bryan Scott has an opportunity to land a nice contract if he starts and performs well for Buffalo this year. Perhaps he has the opportunity to lose his starting spot if a rookie is drafted to take his place. He would likely remain on the roster ahead of other players, but his opportunity to impress before hitting the open market could be limited.
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I’m hopping that after this draft, the Bills are able to cut the first three guys on this list.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
They'd porbably wait until training camp don't you think.
:-)
But yeah those guys could easily lose their spots on the team.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 21, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Fine has sat and learned for a year
No, Fine hasn’t sat for a year. He was injured and then saw significant playing time. Unless Buffalo takes Pettigrew, whether Fine’s the ‘starting’ TE or not will depend more on the package/play call than any draftee. If the Bills take a receiving TE with limited blocking ability then that TE will be in on obvious passing downs while Fine will see the field whenever the Bills might run the ball.
If the Bills add more than one DE, look for Kelsay to be moved to make room in the rotation. At the very least expect his role to be reduced this fall.
Can you really see Kelsay with a reduced role at his current salary? He’s got to be worried because the Bills will take a DE in the draft and even Kelsay has to realize that he doesn’t represent much bang for the buck.
I'll take your point on Fine.
You’re right about the role he had last year. I agree with you on the package question as well. But even you said “Unless Buffalo takes Pettigrew…” If I am Fine I am worried about that very occurence. :-)
Can you really see Kelsay with a reduced role at his current salary?
Yes. Until they cut or trade him I am going to assume he’s on the roster. If by some miracle the Bills don’t take a DE until the third round, don’t you think he has to stay? Injury concerns with Schobel and not beign sold on Ellis yet, you need to have him around.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 21, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
If the Bills get a guy like Ayers or Brown I’d be surprised if Kelsay stayed on the roster. He’s too expensive for what he brings to the table. With Spencer “How Did I Blunder Into My Deal Again?” Johnson having the versatility to fill in at DE if needed, I don’t see Buffalo carrying more than 4 DEs: Schobel, Denney, Ellis….and the new guy.
I do agree with you that the Bills could keep Kelsay if the DE position gets a pass (3rd round or later selection) during this draft.
by Ron From NM on Apr 21, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Thing is a first round rookie DE will probably get a deal that looks a lot like Kelsey’s current deal… although the rookie would probably actually earn his money.
by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 21, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Only if he’s picked at 28. The #11 pick should earn more than Kelsay and the #42 pick (and beyond) less.
by Ron From NM on Apr 21, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Well they carried 5 last year with Schobel, Denney, Kelsay, Ellis and Bryan, though they probably kept the last one due to Ellis’ inability to contribute anything. Hopefully, they bring in two new DE’s and cut El Bum Kelsay.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
A big smiley face
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Brian just went from 6 to 12
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Haha, Jonah.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Apr 21, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see how the last four will be sweating all that much. They aren’t about to be cut in favor of a rookie. And I think Fine, Ellison and Chambers have all known for a while that the team will be bringing in a rookie to fight for a starting spot….
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Well, their sweat will be playing time sweat, not getting cut sweat.
While they should expect competition it’s different if you take a player at your position in round 1 or 2 as opposed to later in the draft.
Yeah it's not whether they will be on the roster or not...
but rather whether they will be starting on opening day or not.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 21, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I think
Simpson will be gone if they draft a S in rounds 2-4. at least I hope. He’s awful. I can live with Elison as a backup as well as most of the rest. McCargo has got to be wondering what the hell is going on too. Maybe the guy can find some motivation knowing if he doesn’t produce his career could be over.
I think Kelsay could be released if they draft Ayers….And I think Schobel should be released after this season
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
Schobel won’t be released after the season. His 2010 salary is guaranteed, so I doubt they would let him go unless he proves totally incapable of doing anything this season. At the very least, they’d rotate him in next year. I hope a significant number of reduced snaps this year will help him….
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
wow
2010 is guaranteed? That’s insane. I will never understand the Schobel/Kelsay contracts. Why we love slow DE’s who are “every down” players is beyond me.
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
Can they really be called “every down” players when they are useless on 3rd downs? They’re no better in that area than some of the undersized DE’s are at supporting the run….
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
The entire reason why we rotate DE’s is because we don’t have an every down DE.
by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 21, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah
but they don’t. When Kelsay and Schobel are healthy they play like 70-80%% of the snaps…that’s not good enough. We need to have snaps reduced to 50-60% for them to be effective on 1st and 2nd downs….then bring in Ellis, denny and rookie along with Schobel on passing situations……What scares me is Ayers is a RE too, so they will make him play LDE?
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
I think that there are only 2 players on that list that are garanteed to be Bills on opening day
Chambers and Fine. Depending on how the draft goes, the rest of them may all become expendable…. well maybe Scott would stay too.
But with a good draft, and 1 or 2 more FA’s we might still see a very different Bills team this year. I like that.
by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 21, 2009 11:07 AM EDT reply actions
Then again, Ellisson is a good backup, so we could keep him too… But for the love of god, cut the first 3!
by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 21, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
The first three are the only three in danger of losing their jobs...
the others are losing starting positions and playing time.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 21, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
does this mean
Kelsay wont be a captain?
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
Maybe of the Ahab variety, though I’m not entirely certain what his metaphorical white whale would be. A very pale fat chick?
by Ron From NM on Apr 21, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
A pale, fat chick? If Kelsay is Ahab, his white whale is most obviously a sack. It’s highly sought after, but his quest to capture it and ultimately, his inability to do so will lead to his death (or release).
No exaggeration, I could not love a human baby as much as I love this blog.
haha!
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
hahah well done Ron and thatguy
with a little team work you just put together the funniest thing this site has seen in a year!!!
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
I’m actually thinking McCargo could be a wild card. I no nothing about the new DLine coach, but we’ve seen flashes of brilliance from McCargo, just never consistency. I’m not getting my hopes up by any stretch, but it will be interesting to see if he improves at all or if he will simply get cut in the end.
Should be: “I know nothing about the new DLine coach,”
by thefourwinds on Apr 21, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Defensive linemen, tackles in particular, can take many years before they blossom. In all likelihood, given the flashes of brilliance and new coach, we could finally see what McCargo is made of. He very well could have a great year, and I think even if the Bills bring in a defensive tackle through the draft or as an URFA, Johnson would more likely be the one cut, or someone somewhere else on the roster. Not McCargo. I think part of the issue with him was that Kollar was not able to get on the same page as him and gave up. He’s going to surprise us.
My only question is, does he rotate in Stroud’s position, or in Williams’ position? Or do the Bills rotate left and right tackles indifferently?
McCargo
I hope this kid turns it on this year…I don’t understand why anyone would want him cut…He is not that bad, it’s just that he was a 1st round pick and he got into Kollar’s dog house. How great would it be for him to just breakout this year?
by NorCal BillsFan on Apr 21, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
They tried to trade him last year
I don’t think they would rid themselves of Spencer Johnson in favor of McCargo at this point.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 21, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Corto and Costanzo
Are these guys on the team because that’s all the Bills found available, or are they legit as 2LBs? The Bills appear to retain more late round and UFA then other teams. Is this just frugality, efficiency, or are the Cortos on the team belong?
I have a hunch that Bell has shown the coaches something in his development such that they think he could be an answer in 1-2 years. The Bills have a very average line, but what the lack is a T that can handle speed rushers like Peters did for one season, (11 sacks,pro bowl,wtf?), maybe Bell is more legit then we know.
http://thepragmaticprogressive.blogspot.com
They are special teams guys IMO.
I don’t think they will ever contribute on the defense and are therefore expendable.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 21, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I find it highly unlikely (<5%) that Bryan Scott loses his starting job this year. He’s a heck of a safety at that position and a young guy at that. Chambers has absolutely nothing to lose and everything to gain. At the absolute worst, he’ll be in the same position he was last year. Therefore no sweating there.
Ellison, Ko, and Kelsay would be the three I might expect to lose playing time, but Ellison is at least worth that emergency stopgap for another year or two if we need him. Even then, Digi’s going to fly all around the backup LB spots. As for Ko and Kelsay, well, they may not even see opening day depending on what happens.
If the Bills drafted a SS in the seond or third round, Scott could lose his job.
Chambers right now has a starting job on this line. If the Bills spend two high picks on linemen, however, he remains a backup like you said. I’d say that’s a lot to lose.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 21, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Man I had the Bills taking a safety in the second round in one of my mocks (William Moore) and got beat up for it. That was even before the Bills had a whole at LT to fill.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
I think you got beat up because it was William Moore, right?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
I'm not saying I want the Bills to draft a safety that high...
just that they could and Scott would lose his starting job over it.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 21, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
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