War Games: Moving to draft two of Buffalo's top five
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 12:15 AM EDT
in 2010 NFL Draft
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PrintWhether you're a fan of the Buffalo Bills' trade of OT Jason Peters last week or not, one fact remains in the wake of the transaction: with two picks in the first round of the NFL Draft and nine picks overall, the Bills have an exciting opportunity to add two difference-makers to their roster this coming weekend.
We started playing "war games" earlier this week, breaking down scenarios in which the Bills might consider trading up to draft an OT to replace the aforementioned Peters. The overwhelming majority of readers here shot the idea down - and in reality, y'all are probably right. The chances that the Bills trade up are slim to none. So we'll move on.
For argument's sake, let's just say that there are five players the Bills are currently targeting in the first round: OT Andre Smith, OT Michael Oher, TE Brandon Pettigrew, DE Robert Ayers and LB Clay Matthews III (in no particular order). We're not here to argue whether or not those players belong on the short list, because we've been doing that for months. Instead, let's focus on how the Bills go about getting two of these players onto their team.
Target 1: At or near No. 11
Buffalo's first selection is at No. 11 overall. It's very likely that the Bills will consider all five of the aforementioned players at that selection. Here's how I believe the Bills would prioritize those five players at No. 11, with a trade-down scenario built into the prioritization.
1. Andre Smith: The controversial tackle is widely considered to be a Top 10 pick and perhaps one of the five most talented players at any position in this draft class. We know that the Bills like him. If he slides all the way to 11, the Bills will have to take him - he's an immediate replacement for Peters.
2. Explore a trade down: It doesn't matter with who, but this is where y'all come in in the comments section - your task is to identify teams that may want to move up, and which prospects might be targets that teams would conceivably move up for. While you mull that, here's why a trade ranks second here in my book - it gives the Bills more ammo to get themselves in position to get two of their targets, and of the four guys remaining, all have the potential to slide a bit on draft day.
3. Michael Oher: We don't have a clear read on his status in the eyes of Bills talent evaluators, but you have to imagine he'll be on the short list considering the need for an OT. It's not a lock he'll be around - but if he is, he has less of a chance at lasting than some of the other targets on the list, so he ranks third.
4. Robert Ayers: Of the three non-OT prospects on our targets list, Ayers should rank highest simply because of the position he plays. Defensive ends routinely are selected higher than they're expected to be because they play a premium position; the same can't be said for tight ends or linebackers.
5. Clay Matthews III: I have maintained throughout this whole Peters trade process that the Bills were just as likely to draft a defensive playmaker at 11 as they were to draft an OT. That doesn't change; I still think that they'll prioritize defense in round one in all likelihood. Even though Matthews is less polished than Pettigrew, the defender gets the nod.
6. Brandon Pettigrew: I'll be straight with you - if the Bills are looking to draft a player that helps them the most immediately, Pettigrew should be the top guy on their board. He gives QB Trent Edwards some size in the short-area passing game, and far more importantly, he brings a nasty attitude to Buffalo's run blocking. He's perfect for this offense and helps the unit creep toward establishing an identity. But of the five players, he's easily the most likely to be available latest just because of the position he plays.
***
You're obviously free to disagree with my prioritization in the comments section, and you're encouraged to do so. But most importantly, you folks should now be wearing your GM hats. You already have your first assignment - continue your fine speculation on trade down scenarios, identifying teams and players that may be involved.
Your second assignment is to vote in the poll below about which of the six "on the clock" scenarios outlined above are most likely to occur at No. 11. Not "which you want to happen," per se, because as mentioned, we've already had those discussions for nearly four months. We're predicting here. Predict which of the six is most likely to happen - your input will help determine the next step in acquiring two of these targets in our "war games" series.
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If we are being asked to make our best guess, mine is that the Bills have no intention of choosing Smith or Oher. They appear to believe that they already have their LT of the future on the roster in Demetrius Bell and, if that is true, they have no reason to use their #11 pick on an OT. I would also guess that OLB is not a priority for them given how little they use their third LB. Ayers does strike me as someone who would strongly appeal to them for all the reasons Brian has pointed out, but the fact that he is not a strong pass-rusher might rule him out. As for Pettigrew, he is the most conspicuous difference-maker they could draft at this slot so my guess is that of the options presented he would be the most likely one they would take. They have to win in 2009, and no player in the entire draft would help them more in doing that. However, I suspect they would love to be able to trade down to somewhere between picks #17 to #20 if they can and still take him.
Why do they appear to believe they already have their LT of the future? Because Chris Brown talked about him being an option at RT this year? I don’t get it.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Plus we have heard from a legit source that the Bills really like Andre Smith
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah i agree w/ kurupt and matt... they may like bell but doesn't mean they are sold on him as a day on starter at tackle, that could be a smoke screen, and i doubt smith will be there at 11.. so i see us selecting oher most likely
however i wouldn’t mind trading down a few spots, and selecting oher.. i think that would be best case scenario, pick up probably another 2nd round pick, and move down a few spots and still get oher…
That’s a good point too. Just because they are excited about a guy they picked in the 7th round last year doesn’t mean they have any confidence in him to even step onto the field this year. It’s all relative. Early round picks have higher expectations, so the coaches aren’t going to give as many glowing reviews on the McKelvin’s of the world because that is already what is expected of him. But when a guy like Steve Johnson or Demetrius Bell show signs of being great 7th round finds, the coaching staff is going to be talking about them. But that still doesn’t mean they won’t draft an early round rookie at the same position or sign a TO or anything like that. For all we know, DJ and co. like Chambers more than Bell. We simply don’t know.
We will know the answer to Kaisertown’s last question on Saturday night. If the positive talk that has been coming out of OBD about Bell over the past half year (not just the past two weeks) is accurate, then they won’t select an OT with a high pick. If all they have been doing is admiring a 7th round development prospect, they will go for an OT in Round One. My guess is that they do have confidence in Bell because he has freakish athletic skills (part of his genetic inheritance), the right size (6’ 5", 325 lbs and counting), is an incredibly hard worker who keeps making progress much faster than they expect, and already knows the Bills offensive system. But that’s just a guess.
As for hearing from a legitimate source that the Bills really like Andre Smith, how do we know that THAT isn’t a smokescreen? Geronimo strikes me as smart and informed, but no more so than most of the people who post on this website. Perhaps he does have an inside source, but at this time of year NFL teams routinely make an effort to put out misinformation to mask their true intentions. That being true, why would someone in the know at OBD go out of his way to share accurate info on the team’s plans with someone who they know is about to post it on a popular website? To be nice to their fans? It doesn’t work that way. Last year Geronimo’s big news was that the Bills were targeting WR Limas Sweed as their #1 pick. When they did select a WR, they of course chose James Hardy with Sweed still on the board. So it may well be that the team really likes Smith, but I for one will remain skeptical of that until we actually pick him on Saturday.
As Geronimo has said before...
what NFL team is getting their draft speculation from a Bills fan blog?
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
And last year, he told us they would take Leodies McKelvin if he were on the board.
McKelvin was and the Bills took him.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s true that Geronimo said the Bills would take McKelvin if he dropped to them, but was that so hard to foresee? You didn’t need inside info to make that guess — a lot of people were thinking that. Perhaps my memory is wrong, but what Geronimo never told us last year was that the Bills had their eyes on James Hardy, and yet he turned out to be the pick (whether they would have preferred Devin Thomas had he been available we will never know). I also recall him assuring us that they believed Teyo Johnson was going to be their TE of the future. Maybe that was the belief within OBD, but it seems unlikely given how quickly Johnson got cut.
Teams do a lot of strange things to spread misinformation before the draft. Another team that was concerned about what the Bills were going to do might very well check out the team’s various blogsites to see who was being mentioned, etc., and if there is someone who claims to have an inside contact and who other people appear to take seriously they would focus in on that.
I’m not sure smokescreens work all that well. Teams indulge in them anyway all the time, though.
Here it is...
I think Geronimo actually had it right last year – comment from Apr 9 2008:
It was never made clear to me what the issues are with their opinions on Sweed. They had Thomas #2 on their WR list—before today. I do know that if McKelvin dropped to 11 that will be the pick-but I and OBD don’t think that is ever going to happen—hence my post the other day that it was clearly going to be Kelly.Interest in Sweed cooled and Devin Thomas became there next choice at WR but he was taken by the Skins.
That being true, why would someone in the know at OBD go out of his way to share accurate info on the team’s plans with someone who they know is about to post it on a popular website?
Good question. There’s an assumption there that renders the question moot, though.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
The assumption I speak of is this:
in the know at OBD
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps I’m dense, but I still don’t see why that assumption would make the question moot. Why couldn’t the person in the know realize that it would potentially alert other teams to the Bills’ plans if he shared info with a friend/contact who was about to post it for all the world to see and therefore give that friend/contact misinformation that would prvide a smokescreen?
There are varying levels of “in the know.” I doubt any human outside of Buffalo’s war room knows EVERYTHING about what the team is planning this weekend.
And who cares if it is a smokescreen? I know that personally as a blogger, I would be honored to be viewed important enough to adequately set an NFL smokescreen.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I see your point. I also agree that I would be happy to serve as a smokescreen if that would help the team. If that is the role Geronimo is playing there’s nothing wrong with it. In fact, bless him. My only point here (and I think it is an extremely important one) is to call into question the assumption so many people make that whatever Geronimo discloses in his posts mst be the gospel truth (look above and you will see him described as a “legit source.”) There may be valuable info in them, but there is also a good chance there is not. My own practice is to drink in what he says and reflect on whether it makes sense. If it does I will then consider it a real possibility — but because it makes sense, not because Geronimo said it. In a word, he definitely contributes to our discussions, but I’m not ready to annoint him as an oracle or even a “legit source.”
That’s, of course, completely your prerogative.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't want to, but...
I voted for Ayers.
OBD hasn’t showed any tendency to trade down (though they do seem willing to trade up — Losman, McCargo), so I can’t see that as a possiblity, as much as I think it’s the right thing to do if Smith and Oher aren’t available.
I don’t think Andre Smith or Michael Oher will be available at #11. So much of what Buffalo does depends on what the Bengals do at #6. Conventional wisdom says if Buffalo feels Smith is a top LT prospect, other teams will also. You could argue Cincy has equal needs on both sides of the ball, but Smith was considered the top pick in the draft before the NFL combine. That’s not the kind of player you pass on when your starting QB is recovering from an elbow injury he almost needed surgery for.
It’s also likely that Sanchez will be taken in the top 10, either by one of the teams or by trade, if rumors are to be believed. That should put Oher in the laps of San Francisco, who won’t have anyone to trade down with if Stafford and Sanchez are off the board. With questions about Joe Staley at LT and some combination of Adam Snyder and Barry Sims at RT, Oher would probably look too good to pass up for them. It would take a player like Curry available to move them off of someone like Oher.
Even though Pettigrew is the most impactful player available at #11 at that point, I think OBD tends to draft for need in the 1st round. They’d have to think about addressing their need at DE and look at OT with their second 1st rounder. That makes Ayers the pick if they stay at #11, though I prefer Maybin myself.
Man, I just repeated the intro of the previous War Games entry… I’M A DIRTY PLAGARIZER!!!
by Mark Parisi on Apr 22, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Something just occurred to me
We should consider that Buffalo doesn’t intend to stand pat at either #11 or #28. If they actually do trade both Parrish and Kelsay, they should have the ammunition to move up from #28 for sure, and #11 possibly. Could that be their strategy on Saturday?
No but that 4th from Philly, coupled with Parrish...
could move us from 28 to say 15 or so in the right scenario.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions
i think that might even be a stretch.. moving up 13 spots would take more than that
you have parrish valued too high on the market.. he’s a return man…
That's the same as like 2 fourth rounders....
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions
28 to 15?
28 to 15 would be 660 pts vs 1000 pts! That would require 2nd round picks not 4th round picks. Our two 4th round picks are worth only 126 pts
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
That blows.
:-) What about a third and Roscoe?
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah right
If we want to move that far, our 2nd round pick will need to be involved, or next year’s 1st.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
I just don't get it....
my bad.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
We could send Parrish, Simpson, our 28th and a 4rth or 5th to Houston for their 15th. They need help in the return game, they need A LOT of help in their secondary, especially at saftey. I think it could be done.
by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 22, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Why wouldn’t we just trade down with Houston? We’d only be giving up one pick. That level of trade is essentially unheard of in the NFL.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh I agree that a trade down with Houston is more likely, but if we do want to trade up, even if a trade up of that level is unherd of, it wouldn’t hurt to try.
by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 22, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I would move Oher ahead of the trade down option, but that’s about it. I really wish they didn’t have Ayers or Pettigrew as part of their considerations for the 11th pick though.
If we don’t get one of the OT’s, please OBD, please trade down! If they plan to take one of those other guys, at least move down and get some extra picks before doing so. None of the 3 should be taken at 11.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Apr 22, 2009 12:58 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I was gonna comment but this has all my feelings wrapped up with a tight lil pretty pink bow....
so I’ll just REC’D this…..and call it done.
Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009
by norcaliangelsfan on Apr 22, 2009 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions
me too :-)
"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker
i half agree with this
but what about brown? have we turned our backs on brown?
Bills make me wanna SHOUT!
by silverstreak3k on Apr 22, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I just don't think the Bills are too keen on drafting him is all.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I voted Ayers, mainly because I don’t think Smith or Oher will be there at #11, and I think that Pettigrew may be there at #28.
If I had to pick the one that I want- still assuming Smith and Oher are gone, I’d go with Matthews.
Penn Staters belong at Penn State. The problem with a lot of kids is they just don’t know they are Penn Staters yet.
Noli nothis permittere te terere.
by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Apr 22, 2009 1:04 AM EDT reply actions
Reasonable assumptions, at least in my opinion:
- Smith will be gone before #11 (before 7, I bet)
- Many teams are in need of a first tier OT, and there is a huge step between the first 4 prospects and the others.
- Bills usually don’t trade during draft day; other teams do, and they have the picks to do it. With only one valid prospect left, someone will panic, trade up and pick Oher (a reach, IMHO)
- In the last 2 years the Bills had a tendency to draft the best value available rather than the more pressing need – see the picks of Edwards or McKelvin
- Offensive needs are perceived as more pressing than defensive needs: the front 7 problem is widespread lack of talent, the Oline problem is a lack of bodies AND talent. Help is needed from day one, but no first tier OL remains at #11.
So the pick is Pettigrew, and trather than go OL the Bills will try to add interior linemen later (in round 2 or later, I suppose).
People say the glass is half full. But they don't say of what.
How is that a contradiction? The Bills have more pressing needs than TE, but he took Pettigrew anyway. That’s actually completely in line with what he was saying.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions
because there is no way that pettigrew is good value at 11.. or should be the highest valued player on the board..
at the minimum and we know he will be there i say one other player that would be rated ahead of pettigrew ( i don’t understand how you are defending him when there are two other players on your list that will definately be there mathews/ayers that are more highly rated) that we should take.. and that would be DE and to go along w/ the list ayers, but just to mention brown could be there and so could maybin, both should be rated ahead of petti, as well as mathews, and even cushing, but i wouldn’t take either at 11 and wouldn’t take petti at 11..
it’s between OT/DE at 11 in my opinion
I mean the value on their board
As far as I understand Pettigrew is highly valued by the Bills. Besides, I am guessing that no trade is made, Andre Smith is gone and Oher is gone. So, none of the remaining possibilities given by the poll are really worth the 11th pick. Matthews may be a consideration here, but I suspect theythink they can fill the LB position with Ellison, Bowen (that is the a posponed pick of sorts), the other FA whose name I forgot and eventually a late round pick.
Remember, that’s not what I WOULD do or what I WOULD LIKE them to do.
People say the glass is half full. But they don't say of what.
bad proofreading
It should be “(that is a postponed pick of sorts)”
People say the glass is half full. But they don't say of what.
Pat Thomas is the LB you are forgetting.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Well you say the Bills dont draft need but 2 years ago they drafted Lynch (need) in round 1 and followed it up with Poz (need) round 2. Last year they drafted Mckelvin which was a little bit of a need b/c they knew Greer’s contract was running up and Hardy (need). So the Bills history has not gone for the best player in the top 2 rounds, they have gone for the best player at the position they need.
Since we need a OT, OG, DE, LB, and TE taking the highest rated player would be filling a need and taking the best player on the board which is what they will do. If they took a QB, RB, WR, CB (maybe even DT) then you could say the Bills purely take the best player available.
I try to elaborate some more
I think that the Bills tend to draft the best value within the positions their perecive as “needs”. that is, they may overlook a weaker position due to better player value. See the last year, when they (correctly, IMHO) choose McKelvin even if CB was not the most needed position.
Luckily sometimes (Lynch) the best value and the most needed position match, of course.
Now, Pettigrew is not, in MY opinion, good value at #11, but I suspect the Bills would take him ahead of Ayers or Matthews, that’s all. Of course I may be wrong (hell, I HOPE to be wrong!)
People say the glass is half full. But they don't say of what.
Entirely agree with that. We have Needs at LB OT G and TE, but I think they’ll draft the best talent available out of all those positions, which is why I don’t think that OBD will draft a tackle in the first.
by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 22, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I know that petti has come in on a visit, so the bills have shown interest.. but the thing is you can't count on anything you hear at this point.. as a reporter said on the NFL network at least 80% of what you hear are smoke screens...
Now i’m sure the bills do value to petti, according to thebills he would be the type of TE they value in their system, a guy that can catch and block, he obviously can block and has good hands, but he’s not a game breaker, not a big time receiving threat…
and the one guy i think you are forgetting in all this is ayers, or at the very least the DE position.. i think there may be 3 DE’s on the board at 11 that should have a higher grade than petti, and maybe more… there is a decent chance that maybin, brown, ayers are all on theboard at 11, but there should be at least 1, and the 1 that should definately be there may be the one that the bills value the most, and that’s ayers.. i think 11 may be a bit of a reach for ayers, but i think it’s less of reach for him than petti.. my hope is that either smith or oher are there and we go that direction, and from that point we take best player available at DE/LB/TE/G..
MOST LIKELY
For those whom voted for Andre Smith to be “Most Likely” taken at #11, I think you missing the boat, this guy won’t be around there (Bengals, etc.). At least it is not likely he will be around.
"It's that time of the year where all teams are involved in making some, to a degree, painful decisions." - Marv Levy
by Jason from OH-IO on Apr 22, 2009 6:40 AM EDT reply actions
Being at #11 just before Denver
I see the Bills trading down, there’s going to be teams who want to jump ahead of the Broncos to grab a QB (even if Sanchez and Stafford are gone) just because Denver MIGHT take a QB with this pick.
If Denver trades up to grab a QB, then I’d say they go with Smith.
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I don’t think past history is particularly relevant this year. We wouldn’t have signed T.O. anywhere between last year and a decade ago, either. Things change.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
desperation does that
Bills make me wanna SHOUT!
by silverstreak3k on Apr 22, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
If both of the tackles are gone I hope you are right. I really do, but I have heard the moving down song and dance for many years now and it has not happened. I dont believe the Bills will move down, I dont. I think they will use picks 11 and 28. However, I would not suprised if they move up with their second or use a 3rd and 4th to get back into round 2.
Here’s something to chew on.
Picks 11 and 28 are pretty much identical in value (I think 15 points separates them) to picks 15 and 19.
Houston owns pick 15. As keysh67 astutely pointed out in this thread, they have a good reason to trade up – they need either a strong DB (Malcolm Jenkins) or a LB (Clay Matthews III), and both of those players are possibilities to Denver and New Orleans – depending of course on who is available. Buffalo could easily swing Houston’s third-rounder (No. 77 overall) to move down to 15.
Tampa owns pick 19. Unless they’re prepared to give up a million picks to move up for Josh Freeman, I’m betting they want to move down. They are in complete re-building mode – they’ve got rookies at HC and GM, and they’ve gutted their roster of vets. They need as many picks as they can get. Guess what it would cost for the Bills to move up to No. 19 from 28? Yep – the 77 pick they just got from Houston.
Those are two incredibly realistic trades, IMO – but both would obviously depend on what happens at the top of the draft, as everything does. But if the Bills were able to turn 11/28 into 15/19 without sacrificing ANY of their current picks in rounds two through seven, it’d be astoundingly brilliant. Those two picks are close enough to get two of Ayers, Pettigrew and Matthews.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
That would be ideal.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I could be satisfied with something like that on day one. They’d really have to make their 2nd rounder count, though.
by Mark Parisi on Apr 22, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
That would be BRILLIANT. I love it.
by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 22, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
which is why it will not happen :-(
"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker
Are you saying I should be GM of the Bills?
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
In a word, yes… or at least that the Rumblings should be part of the inner circle :-P
by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 22, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
OK with me as long as I get to be in charge of cheerleader quality control :-)
"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker
That's just perfect, Brian.
Took words right out of my mind. The only question is: What about the OT pick? Are you saying that the Bills should be content with what they have on their roster currently? Or that you expect them to pick an OT later in the draft?
Bills fan half way around the world
I don’t think past history is particularly relevant this year. We wouldn’t have signed T.O. anywhere between last year and a decade ago, either. Things change.
They wouldn’t have had 3 disapointing players on the trade block in past years either. TO me, it looks like OBD is changing their ways this year, in a serious attempt to get better. I say just about anything is possible at this point, including a trade down in the first.
by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 22, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
The Oklahoma/Texas Tech game was on again last nite
I really tried to pay attention to Pettigrew. I m not at all sold on him. He’s rated as the top prospect at TE and he is just thatt, a prospect. He’s got great hands and can block but he’s slow as hell and you can see it when he makes a cut or after he gets the ball. It seems like the defender is on him immeadiatly every time. He’s just too slow to be the type of TE we need. I’d love to have him, dont get me wrong, but the asking price( a 1st rounder) is too great. Now if he slips……..
I agree that pick 11 will be a BPA pick, be it A.Smith, Oher, Raji or even Okrapo, history shows we will draft the best talent available with our 1st pick. Given the current lack of talent at all but 3 positions (QB,RB,WR) anything is an improvement.
A trade Senario?!
Here ya go
The following asumes we get a 4th for Parrish, giving us 3 4th rounders
RD1 Bills Trade PicK 11 and our earliest 4th to Jacksoville ( the numbers add up in trade value) for pick 8. The result…… Bills Draft Andre Smith,LT.
RD1 pick28 Micheal Johnson, DE
RD2 Max Unger OL
RD3 Shawn Nelson TE (speed and blocking)
Trade: Bills trade remaining 4th rounders to Baltimore. Bills get Baltimore’s 3rd.
RD3 Marcus Freeman OLB
RDs 5-7 BPA
I meant trade down scenario. We already discussed pretty much that exact trade up scenario you mentioned earlier this week. But hey, at least you put a trade scenario out there. :)
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 7:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I hope you mean Oklahoma State game. :-)
Otherwise you were watching Jermaine Gresham.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 7:52 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah i have to agree w/ you on petti.. that's what i saw from him too, and not just in that game..
i think he will be a guy that if the defense has to leave someone uncovered it will be him, and then if he does get the ball they will just tackle him immediately for a 5 yard gain.. which is fine, but doesn’t really give us much more than what we already have at TE.. it’s easy to find blocking TE (maybe not so much in this draft but generally speaking), it’s tough to find those gamebreakers, and athletic field stretchers.. blocking is not a difficult thing to pick up.. it’s simply a matter of imposing your will on another man, it’s all about want to… if you can simply find a guy who wants to be a good blocker, and wants to stick his nose in there.. w/ some time he will be.. especially at the TE position because they normally have pretty easy blocks.. they get a lot of angles and walling of defenders who come down the line..
How many TEs in the NFL run away from defenders? Some of you guys confuse WRs and TEs. If Pettigrew runs a ten yard route and uses size to get open, that is all we need to move the chains. TO, Evans and Reed provide the speed for this team. The TE just needs to get open, catch the football and not fumble. Pettigrew can do that.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
true
but a 3rd round TE can do that just as well as petti without using the number 11 pick on him. i dont like taking petti that early, would rather some other need taken, OL/LB/DE.
Bills make me wanna SHOUT!
by silverstreak3k on Apr 22, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I disagree. There is no TE that has Pettigrew’s size, hands and blocking ability. That is why he is considered a 1st rounder and the others are not.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
Shawn Nelson
had more catches and td’s last year. is only 6-4 to petti’s 6-5. although he weighs about 20 lbs less, thats nothing the weight room at an nfl facility cant fix. id rather take him later and get better overall value at 11
Bills make me wanna SHOUT!
by silverstreak3k on Apr 22, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
But he can't block like Pettigrew....
Nelson has great hands no doubt… but he is not an in line blocker. Not yet anyways.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
so put nelson in passing downs and keep fine in for blocking.
problem solved, give nelson the year to impvoe his blocking. it will get better with coaching, im sure he wasnt needed as a blocker all that much in college.
Bills make me wanna SHOUT!
by silverstreak3k on Apr 22, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions
And that's the trade off.
It is possible that you will see that exact scenario. But in the past the Bills have not gone after the pass catcher, seam buster, super agile, not great blocker TE. They have gone for the Derek Fines and the Robert Royals. Guys that can block and be a safety valve.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
And if Fine gets hurt like he did last year, then you are left with a kid who can’t block. Also there are two TE sets, where having both Fine and Pettigrew in at the same time would be awesome.
Pettigrew would fit this offense like a glove.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
by sireric on Apr 22, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Pettigrew would fit this offense like a glove.
+1
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Dude, guys. Stop doing the “+1” and just rec instead!
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yes! I thought I was the only one who was irritated with the +1 thing :-)
"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker
Well you could have just rec’d Brian comment instead Joe.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
by sireric on Apr 22, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I will rec not post before it's time..... it is time :-)
"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker
I have no clue what you just said.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
take out the t
I will “rec” no post before it’s time.
"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker
+1
lol
Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009
by norcaliangelsfan on Apr 22, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
THAT IS IT CALI!!!!! I am going to start flaging posts with +1 ..... not really :-)
"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker
But what if I only liked one part of his comment enough to rec it?
I have never ever done +1 before. Just trying to use blog-speak
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn’t singling you out. But never do it again.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Done.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
again, not saying he wont
im not even saying i dont want him on the team, i just think 11 is much higher than he should be drafted. if we trade down, pick up a few picks in the process, or can get him at 28, ill be happy, downright excited. but at 11, id rather take that OT (probably oher), LB (matthews/pipe dream curry) or DE (yes i still prefer brown, i dont care about his size, the guy has outright talent). i think nelson would be a fine replacement is petti doesnt go to the bills, thats all im saying.
Bills make me wanna SHOUT!
by silverstreak3k on Apr 22, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
How about this:
Leapfrogging G’s comment somewhere in this thread.
Trade #11 to the Jets for their 17 and their 3rd rounder.
Take Pettigrew at 17
Trade #28 and the 3rd from the Jets to the Vikings for their #22.
Take Matthews at 22.
Or switch Pettigrew and Matthews.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
by sireric on Apr 22, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Id rather stay at 11 if oher is there, and take my chances getting mathews at 28 or DE
i think mathews could slip in this draft considering some aren’t sold that he is an every down LB, same w/ cushing, and petti could very well drop too some draft experts have him falling into the 2nd round. not likely but definately possible
Pettigrew is a first rounder.
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
i like your decision to trade the picks and pick up petti later
and i think that would be great by the way. maybe pick up unger in the 2 round, or an OT. and i agree petti is a first rounder, and a top 20 talent, so if we MUST HAVE him, we must get him first round.
Bills make me wanna SHOUT!
by silverstreak3k on Apr 22, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I like this scenario too.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
and so can many other TE's in this draft, and they can even do it better, and are also competent blockers.. so why use our 11th pick on this guy?? especially...
when he’s not even good value there, and we could get better value at other positions of need?? to me it just doesn’t make sense.. now i will accept whoever we take, i have no other choice…and i willend up being happy w/ it and make the most of it.. just because that’s the way i am.. but there are better options at 11 than petti.. particularly at the OT/DE positions.. and i think that’s pretty hard to argue.
Potential partners for a trade down
Let me start by saying that I seriously want Pettigrew in a Bills uniform and I don’t think that he’ll be there at #28 but I also feel that we should trade down a few spots to get him.
I could see three serious trade partners
1) Houston. The biggest need in Houston is by far the DB position and Malcom Jenkins will be scooped up by the Saints if they don’t trade up a few spots. I could see them sending us their first 4th (#108) and their 5th (#144) and swap their #15 for our #11.
This would leave us with 3×4th round picks (106, 108, 117) – great ammunition to trade up in the 2nd round, plus an extra 5th rounder (That I’d use to get Quinn Johnson)
In this scenario I see us getting Pettigrew at #15, then Ayers at #28
2) Jets or Tampa. Supposedly they are both quite high on Josh Freeman. Potentially the Bronco’s at 12 could also be if Sanchez is off the board. Considering that the 11th pick is worth 1250pts and that the 17th is worth 950pts. The Jets have 3.12 (210pts) and 6.20 (20pts) – total: 230pts, similarly TB has 3.17 (185pts) and 6.17(21pts) for a total of 206pts.
Analysis: I would prefer trading with the Jets. First of all I don’t think Freeman is a Franchise QB. Second, I think what they gain by getting a QB they would lose by losing two picks and third, I would not trust them at all in a scenario where we trade with TB, then the Jets could trade down with Philly or Atlanta (who would take Pettigrew) so trading with the Jets makes the most sense in my mind.
This trade would leave us with 2x 3rd round picks, 2x 4th round picks and 2x 6th round picks – lots of ammunition to trade back into the 2nd round to pickup a guy like PHIL LOADHOLT or RON BRACE
Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
1) I really hope the Bills would get more than a 4th/5th for moving back 4 spots in the first round.
New York City Buffalo Bills Backers
www.nycbbb.com
Its actually quite a fair trade
our #11 is worth 1250pts
their #15 is worth 1050pts
difference of 200pts
Their #108 is worth 78pts and their #144 is worth 34pts = total of 112pts
I would pick Pettigrew at 11 so getting a 4th and a 5th is great value in my mind. Plus at 15 there is very little risk that Philly or Atlanta move up in front of us. Houston is getting a great deal (almost half price) and given that they have two 4th round picks this is not costing them much to get the best CB in the draft.
Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
Plus then Houston might take a De...
and let Clay Matthews fall so we can get him later. :-)
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Houston’s got Mario Williams and they just signed Antonio Smith to a big deal in the off-season. They’re set at DE…
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought mocks had them taking a DE earlier...
guess I was wrong.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Mocks are stupid. :)
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions
We have all proven that, haven’t we?
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
How much did you have to drink before you typed it up?
Did you read it the next morning and say, “who the heck wrote this?”
The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.
Yours is going up at noon today. :)
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
The only reason for Houston to trade up is for Malcom Jenkins
Because they know the Saints will take him at 14
Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
Thank you. This is exactly the type of comment I was looking for. :)
I’m floored by the poll results to this point. Do that many of you really think Andre Smith will be available at No. 11?
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I voted for Pettigrew at 11
But I really hope we can trade down a few spots.
And no I don’t think that Andre Smith makes it to 11
Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
great analysis.. there is only one problem
i really don’t think ayers is there at 28.. and if we think he will be i think we stay at 11 and just take oher (assuming he’s there).. if he’s not then i’d consider trading down to 15 taking ayers there, and hoping mathews or petti slips to 28 or getting britton if we think he’s capable of doing the job.. i just think that it sets our entire draft up better if we can just get that LT at 11 in oher or smith (smith will probably be gone).. then we can add best players available from that point on.. best DE/LB/TE/G at 28 and so on down the line…
i’ve said this a couple times now i just think the best case scenario is that we are able to trade down a few spots from 11 and still land Oher.. that would be perfect for us…
I agree...
I’d also like to see Pettigrew in Buffalo, but not at the expense of the #11 pick. If we can move to the 16-20 range, we will safely be able to get him. The primary key is Sanchez, and how badly Jacksonville wants a Crabtree or Maclin at #8. If Jax trades down on draft day, our chances for trading down are much slimmer. I’m not convinced that any of the teams mentioned above will move up for Freeman, because Denver will not take him at #12 in my opinion.
Andre Smith will not be available at #11…not a chance.
I've been feeling Buffalo ill.
Our advantage is that we can offer a much better deal
I seriously doubt that the 49ers will take Sanchez. They have way too many holes to fill and Smith has been bounced from coordinator to coordinator since he’s been in SanFran, so I doubt they pull the trigger on a QB this year.
So Buffalo is in a much better position to trade down than Jax, in my humble opinion. With three teams wanting a QB (Denver, Jets & TB) I am almost certain that we can find a trade partner. The fact that our main target is Pettigrew gives us a lot of options in trade down scenarios
Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
Sanchez doesn't have a big arm
And he is very accurate. It’s Stafford & especially Freeman that have big canons
Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
no kidding.. i was commenting on chipshot's post... key being sanchez and stafford being gone before we pick and that denver wouldn't take freeman because...
he’s not the accurate, quick release, quick decision making, good footwork type.. he’s the strong armed one..
i was talking about freeman in the post, replying to chipshot.. so were on the same page.
My feeling is that if they move down, they should also move up from 28.
Trade down from 11 to 19 (Tampa) and add a 3rd rounder.
Trade up using the 4th rounder from Philly to get to 16 and take Matthews Jr.
Trade the third rounder from Tampa and move up from 28 to 22 or 21 to take Pettigrew.
You can end up with two of your top 5 guys.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
Trade up twice? I can’t fathom the Bills making three trades in the first round. Two would be enough for my brain to explode.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Ha...
actually keysh’s idea work too. Trade down to Houston’s spot. They move up to 11 and grab one of the DEs still left on the board letting Matthews fall, a player they apparently covet. We pick Pettigrew at 15 and Matthews falls all the way to 28. That works out well. :-)
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 8:21 AM EDT up reply actions
i'm up
for drafting at #11 Ayers, and moving up to #22 to land Matthews. The Vikings need extra picks and would be more than willing to trade out…..#28 = 660 pts, #22 = 780 pts….So we would have to give up our 2 4th round picks (74 pts + 52 pts) to do it, but it might be worth it if Matthews is still there
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
I don't see Matthews lasting past the Texans though.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Trade down once? I can’t fathom that happening. I have pleaded for the Bills to trade down almost every year and it never happens. Well I don’t know about never, but it hasn’t happened in the past five years.
I’m not going to speculate or even hope for a trade down bc apparently, OBD is unaware that it’s a possibility. If Smith is gone, they’re gonna take Pettigrew or Ayers, regardless of whether or not they could trade down a few spots and still pick their guy.
No exaggeration, I could not love a human baby as much as I love this blog.
Geronimo said the Bills want to trade down...
Can it be that they just haven’t had a partner recently?
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s certainly possible. But it was reported (I think by Mort, which means he coulda completely made this up) that in 2006, the Broncos wanted to move up to the Bills spot to get their pick of QBs. They wound up getting their guy anyway, but the Bills coulda moved done and still got Donte. Actually, they prolly coulda moved out of the 1st round and still got Donte. (kidding…sorta)
No exaggeration, I could not love a human baby as much as I love this blog.
The thought process was that Donte would be gone in the next couple of picks...
right or wrong that was the thought and he was one of their highest rated guys.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Right, and I’m saying I don’t think there is gonna be much change in their “thought process” this year. They’re gonna fear that Ayers or Pettigrew will be taken in the next few picks and won’t wanna trade out. Trading down is obviously a gamble, and (this goes without saying) Dick and Co. aren’t really the gambling type.
No exaggeration, I could not love a human baby as much as I love this blog.
But this year they have several guys at the top of their board...
and several of them are likely to still be around if they trade down. It changes the game.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Trading down
They really want to trade down. REALLY. But—it does take a partner. Regarding Whitner—he was their guy and they had it on pretty good authority that the Ravens were gonna nab him a few picks later. Right or wrong—that’s what happened.
Geronimo
The Premise
I think most of you are missing the premise of Brian’s question here. It’s not really who would “you” take—but rather, having identified the most likely 5 targets of OBD—given reasonable assumptions as to who will be available—what moves would have to be made to get TWO of them in the first round. In my mind, this means both a trade down from #11 AND a trade up from # 28. I do NOT believe that any of these five will be available at #28—and already this morning I have read (knowing that you can’t believe much if anything in the week leading up to the draft), that Houston intends to draft Matthews, and the Ravens are targeting Pettigrew—as are potentially the Jets.
The trade down from #11 is necessary to get the ammo to potentailly move up 6-8 slots from 28 to get one of the five—all of whom I think will be gone by around #22.
Please know that it is OBD’s great desire to trade down. They would love to—and that is a fact. So—this excercise is to identify what possibilities exist.
My own personal opinion (and I have NO other sources on this beyond that) is that the Jets may make a move up to #11 for Freeman, if they beleive the Skins are interested and think Denver is smokescreening their manlove for Kyle Orton.
As to my own personal favorites (again, my opinion only) Smith will NOT be there at #11, and I do not believe Oher will be either. I’d do what I could to get Pettigrew and Matthews in no particular order. I believe they will both be gone far before #28 comes around.
Geronimo
by Geronimo on Apr 22, 2009 8:06 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I think
Tampa Bay, new regime, might be a possibility to trade up to #11 for Freeman too. But, I think the big shoe to drop is who the Lions take. IF they surprise everyone and draft Curry, that is phenomenal news for us at #11.
You gotta remember Jim Schwartz won with Kerry Collins and a great defense. You gotta think he wants Curry to build his 4-3 around. If Schwartz drafts Stafford, he may never be around to see the kid develop enough before he’s run out of town. If I’m the Lions I take Curry and make my play for a vet QB next year if Culpepper doesn’t seem capable this year, but coming into mini camps 30 lbs lighter helps.
Getting Ayers and Pettigrew is my dream draft. That’s what I hope for on saturday
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
Of course they want to trade down
The question is, can they do it? In my opinion trading during a draft requires a single, aggrssive decision maker whose actions are not questioned – not in the draft room, at least. For a trade to happen, one must be fast and have no second thoughts. The Bills system seems more, um, ponderous. It may have other merits, though.
People say the glass is half full. But they don't say of what.
G, obviously you have more insight into the Bills intentions than I do, but if they love the idea of trading down why don’t they marry it (wait, no, that’s not what I wanted to say). Whether or not “they would love to” trade down, they don’t appear capable of pulling the trigger. At least they haven’t in the past five years.
No exaggeration, I could not love a human baby as much as I love this blog.
I don’t think the Bills “process or system” has anything to do with it. More like opportunity and a partner willing to pay the price. It has occurred to me that they may be able to move up from #28, without trading down from #11 by using the Roscoe chip….or Kelsey/Ko et al.
Geronimo
I Dont know
if anyone has really thought of this yet or they just seem to think the Bengals are going to overlook it. the Bengals about a yr ago had so many problems with players getting into trouble, do u think thier willing to use thier no.6 pick on a player in Smith who has had trouble in the past. Now im not saying Smith is a kid who beats people up, runs over people, or gets caught with guns but if he is on a certian path in college will he take a turn on that path and make it worse in the Pro’s with money. This is purley thinking outloud to you guys and wanting to see what you guys think about my idea???
Marvin lewis spoke about smith yesterday, and i know you can probably take it w/ a grain of salt but...
he really had a lot of good things to say about him.. i remember him saying he was really happy to be able to sit down and meet the kid and talk to him, and that he felt really good about him, and that it was a great experience for him… i mean he’s obviously not going to say.. this kids a fool were not taking him.. but he had me sold on the fact that if monroe, and jason smith are gone.. andre smith may very well be the pick… i think it’ll be between him and DE if orakpo were to be available at the 6th spot.. there defense needs help.. but you must protect that franchise qb at all costs..
The Bills
need to acquire an extra 3rd or 4th round pick somehow and I think if they do that via a Parrish trade they’d be set to go up from #28 to #20 and still keep their 2nd and 3rd round picks….(they’d have to give up 3 4th round picks). But I don’t see the trade down scenario, cuz if they trade with the Jets or Bucs, they may miss on getting their “two” prospects anyhow….While we all want a trade down, can you imagine the nervousness of then the Bills draft war room anxiously hoping and praying their 2 guys survive until the Bills pick?
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
What about Everett Brown?
What seems to be lost in this whole talks is the what if of Everett Brown – the speed rushing DE is available at 11. He is the second ranked DE on the board and would be an instant starter and contributor. Any thoughts there?
Fat, Drunk, & Stupid is No way to go through life.
We need to pick at least
5 player to play now in the first 4 rounds. Do you think OBD can hit on 5 studs to make the impact we need?
Fat, Drunk, & Stupid is No way to go through life.
I think that number's a little high.
DE, LB, OT, OG, TE…. do you really think if we don’t add a TE all is lost? I don’t. Fine and Ellison are capable starters. If I had a chance I would replace either of them but they will work. If the Bills fill their OG spot and have a plan for OT, I think the Bills are capable of making the playoffs. Trent Edwards holds the key. Make no mistake if he takes the next step we will be fine.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Here is a good trade up possibility
Detroit’s needs are many. QB being their primary need which they will most probably fill at #1 with Stafford. Many people have them going after a LT with #20 but I think they have way more needs elsewhere. After all Jeff Backus is a very capable LT.
Although they just signed Ronald Curry, they still are in need at WR and their return game sucks big time. I could see the bills sending Roscoe & Chris Kelsay to the Lions and swap their #28 for #20. At #28 Moreno or Wells will still be there at #28, so from their perspective they get a proven receiver/return man, a veteran DE that is good against the run (something that I am sure is high on Schwartz’s list) and they still get their RB of choice.
From our perspective we didn’t lose very much in the process. I still see us trading down from 11 to 17, picking up Ayers/Cushing/Mathews and then Pettigrew at 20. With the Jets 3rd & 6th that still leaves us with:
2.10, 3.11, 3.12, 4.10, 4.21, 5.11, 6.10, 6.20 & 7.11
I’d take either Mack or Robinson or Unger at #42 or if possible move up to get Mack if we can.
Then I’d package our 3.12+4.21+7.11 to move back into the 2nd round if Phil Loadholt or Ron Brace are still there.
With 6.20 I’d take Quinn Johnson
I’d be purring like a kitten!
Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
trade down
I still think that Buffalo, with the extra 4ths, trades pick #11 and both 4ths to Detroit for pick #20 and pick #33.
Don’t think that sounds probable? Consider this, in 2008 5 left tackles flew off the board at picks 12, 14, 15, 17, and 19. Detroit picks at number 20 and they want nothing more than to get Stafford and their LT of the future on the field this season with Calvin Johnson. After Andre Smith goes to Cincinnati at #6, Detroit will call Buffalo and offer them #20 and #33 for a chance to get Oher at 11 because they know the players the Bills covet are all a stretch at pick 11. Losing both 4ths could even be offset a bit by getting compensation, say a 6th and 5th respectively, for Kelsay and Parrish.
In my mock I use this scenario and I end up with us getting quite a few good pick with our 4 picks in the first two rounds.
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
The problem becomes that potentially none of our guys are available at 20. We could just as easily end up with none of our top 5. Smith and Oher are gone, Pettigrew goes to the Jets, Matthews to the Texans, and Ayers to the Redskins (or something like that). That would be a disaster.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Bengals trade out of #6
Brian,
I have read multiple rumors about Bengals trading out of #6 with either Broncos or Jets. The Broncos and Jets both have strong interest at #6 to get Sanchez. If this happens, do you believe Smith drops down to #11 and the Bills get their guy?
No. All four teams 7-10 could take Smith. One of them would, and my bet is the Jaguars.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Given the Bills’ supposed interest in John Henderson, is it possible the Jags take Raji at #8 and trade Henderson to Buffalo for picks, a la Cleveland’s plan with Crabtree?
by Mark Parisi on Apr 22, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Where is this supposed interest in Henderson coming from? Imagine how dominant our d-line would be with Stroud and Henderson back together. Anyways, cool article from scout.com on Pettigrew http://buf.scout.com/2/858448.html. I would love to get him, but only if we can’t get Smith or Oher at 11.
by billsnterps on Apr 22, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
It was posted on profootballcentral on April 17th. Definitely needs a huge grain of salt, but if Sanchez is gone and Raji is there, it’s somehing Jacksonville may consider.
by Mark Parisi on Apr 22, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
There was zero truth to the Henderson thing. You’d be wise to put it out of your mind completely.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
That sucks, but I suspected as much. Henderson was the reason Stroud was deemed tradable in the first place.
by Mark Parisi on Apr 22, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
#11 or #28 is not the place to take a chance on converitng a TE to LT, IMO.
"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker
Pettigrew has a chance to be an elite TE for a long time. There’s no way ANY NFL team considers asking him to put on 40 pounds and play OT. Ever.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
That's what you do with late round or undrafted TEs.
Not first round pick TEs.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
the Bills
have notoriously under this regime have targeted and selected 2 guys they love and they move to go get those guys. 2006 – whitner & McCargo, 2007- Lynch & Poz and 2008 – McKelvin and Hardy. There’s no doubt in mind they will do everything in their power to get two of “their” guys. But I think what will haunt the Bills is the fact they couldn’t get pick #21 from the Eagles. Had they done that, they would be in perfect position to get their “2” guys. Now it seems unlikely that they can nab 2 of these 3: Ayers, Matthews, Pettigrew.
They must do everything in their power not to trade away their 2nd or 3rd round picks. Using one or 2 fourths to get their 2nd guy would be fine, but I do not want to give up our 2nd and 3rd round picks when we need to draft multi OL/DL
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
I think if they had 21, we wouldn't have to talk about trading up at all.
Then the Bills could nab two of their top 5 guys without losing a pick.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
well
I realize they had to rid themselves of Peters, but had they waited till this week maybe Philly coughs up the #21st….but beggers can’t be choosers and hopefully using #28 will work
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
It's more than likely that Philly took it off the table...
for the same reasons we want it.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I think this has been said before but Detroit holds the key
If the top tackles are unavailable at #11its likely that Detroit will have taken one of them. It also stands to reason that Sanchez could very well be available, and would be a nice pick-up for Detroit.
An ideal scenario: trading our #11 for Detroits #20 and #33. Then pick up our OT, TE, DE, G/C or LB based on best available at #20, #28, #33, and #42.
Assuming Detroit takes Stafford at #1, they have to know their next biggest need is at OT, and William Beatty should be there at #20. If all of the top tackles are gone by #11, I don’t think they’d trade up for it, since they’d essentially be trading away any shot at a tackle they like.
by Mark Parisi on Apr 22, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Voted for Pettigrew
The Bills haven’t had that COMPLETE TE in a decade or more. Trent could really use a ‘quality’ TE such as Pettigrew. If one only looks at the potential of this ‘O’ w/ T.O. & Lee on each side, Reed back in the slot where he belongs and lining up Pettigrew @ TE, who is the ‘D’ going to cover? I think the addition of Pettigrew can and will make a much bigger impact than any other prospect spoken of here. Of course that’s all IMO only.
I’m optimistically hoping that w/ the addition of T.O. Hardy can develope for us sooner rather than later. Even if T.O. dosn’t actually “mentor” Hardy, Hardy himslef has already stated that he’ll be watching T.O. as much as he can to try to improve his game @ this level.
Also w/ Steve Johnson coming along (I really love this guy), I can see our passing game reach a new level especailly if we can manage to add Pettigrew into the mix.
Needless to say, I voted for Pettigrew as one of the top 5 on Brian’s list.
I’m all for trading down w/ our #11 to the mid to later teens and grabbing our new TE there. I fear that if we wait till the 20’s, he’s a goner!
W/ the Jets @ 17, the Broncos @ 18, and the Bucs @ 19 and all supposidly looking for their QB, there may very well be a move down scenario that we can pull off so Pettigrew isn’t such a reach as many have put it. Then I’d like to package later picks to move UP from #28 to Detroit’s #20 and get the BPA @ a NEED postion, netting our TWO out of the FIVE that Brian has proposed here in this excersise.
Season Ticket Holder Sec: 312, Row: 15
"There's NO place like home when it's the Big Tree Inn"
The other Bob isn’t going to like your opinions on Pettigrew.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
re
“Brian Galliford….stirring up controversies between the Bob’s since 2006”
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
Actually, I have a meeting with the Bob’s in a couple minutes, so I’m gonna have to go ahead and ask you to come back another time.
No exaggeration, I could not love a human baby as much as I love this blog.
ahaha...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzkJWXIPnXM
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Your Point?
Season Ticket Holder Sec: 312, Row: 15
"There's NO place like home when it's the Big Tree Inn"
There wasn’t really one. I happen to agree with your stance on Pettigrew. I don’t think he HAS to be the pick at 11, but I’d be completely satisfied if he was.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
As you know
from my email I sent to ya a few weeks back, I’m going up to OP for day one. I can’t wait to see the reactions of the fans THIS YEAR!
Bring on Saturday already!
Season Ticket Holder Sec: 312, Row: 15
"There's NO place like home when it's the Big Tree Inn"
War games
With a choice like that, I am tempted to suggest ‘collectively commit suicide’
Andre Smith – the biggest bust of the draft waiting to happen incorporating all the worst characteristics of Mike Williams and Jason Peters, and to be avoided like bubonic plague
Michael Oher – has always taken a time to settle and we need instant results plus questions of whether he has it between the ears to learn quickly.
Robert Ayers - Denney/Kelsay don’t know how to sack so are replaced with someone who doesn’t know how sack; only 3.5 last year of which 3 came when he was playing DT
Clay Matthews – a LB at #28 but not at #11 and he’ll go well before #28.
Brandon Pettigrew – No touchdowns last year; WTF. If he was coming out in 2010 he would not be a 1st rounder and he’d not even be in the Top3 at his position. This draft is much deeper at TE than last year and we can get a starter on Day2 or trade for one.
We desperately need to solve our anaemic pass rush so it has to be Everette Brown or Aaron Maybin at #11
With Britton and Beatty gone by #28, we should focus on replacing Ellison – I think James ‘Little Animal’ Laurinaitis will still be there, he has the tools to move to WLB, and alongside Poz and Mitchell will be part of Buffalo’s own ‘Legion of Doom’.
At #42, we take the best LT tackle left so essentially a choice between Jamon Meredith and Gerald Cadogan, both of whom can start from Day1 and be as effective as Matt Light was.
We have too many holes to take risks on anyone with the hint of a red character flag against them.
Brandon Pettigrew would still be number 2 next year behind Greshem.
He is a solid, all-around prospect. The Ok St offense ran a lot and passed to their dynamic WR a lot. Not a lot of balls for Pettigrew. That being said he was still the second leading receiver on the team. Not a whole lot of TEs can claim that.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I would easily say that Rob Gronkowski of Arizona and Dennis Pitta of BYU grade out above Pettigrew. Gronkowksi may well overtake Gresham as the top TE in 2010 and has the complete all round package. He loves to hit and Arizona often use him to wear down rushers. But that doesn’t stop him doing something Pettigrew cannot do …. get in the red zone.
Both of whom are NOT available in this year’s draft, so how do they help us? at all?
I get that there are better college TE’s than Pettigrew, just Like McCoy and Tebow are both better QB’s tha Stafford. But none of those guys are available in the draft this year, and since we’re looking for players that can play for us THIS YEAR, your entire argument is flawed.
by CanadianBillsFan on Apr 22, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Gronkowski is available
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
whoops wrong one
nevermind….
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
We have too many holes to take risks on anyone with the hint of a red character flag against them.
That doesn’t flow logically. Andre Smith doesn’t fill a hole at OT because he left the Combine early? Pettigrew doesn’t fill a hole at TE because he was arrested over a calendar year ago?
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Andre Smith – he’s been a fat lard arse who swans by on natural ability and who get hammered by any average Pro DE. All the greatest players, even those blessed with natural ability were first on the practice field and last out of the gym. All Smith had to do was keep in shape for the biggest interview of his life. If he is too witless to do that, the NFL Playbook is likely beyond him. As for Pettigrew he is simply not the biggest need and we can get close to his quality on Day2. We need a DE who knocks he is supposed to sack the QB occasionally, a WLB who is not a total liability, a LT who just might be dedicated to working hard to get better for his team and possibly a FS considering the both Simpson and Whitner have got themselves in before a TE. Someone like Coffman will be there in the 4th and will be a decent pro. Didn’t the Giants do just as well with Kevin Boss as they did with Jeremy Schockey?
You missed my point completely, but that’s OK. It was a stupid point to begin with.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Apr 22, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Paralysis by Analysis
Pettigrew presents the best opportunity to improve the team instantly.
“Value” is an overblown concept that keeps Mel Kiper employed.
If the Bills like Pettigrew, take him at 11, “value” be damned. That is someone else’s opinion about here say.
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