Starting OT for all 32 NFL teams and Draft Position
Ed. Note, by Brian Galliford: I love it when you guys put together a quality, front page-worthy FanPost when I have a day off from work. Today, syrbillsfan takes center stage with this FanPost listing all NFL starting offensive tackles, where they were drafted and how teams assemble offensive lines. It's an open-ended posting; it's here for discussion purposes - and with the Buffalo Bills in need of a new starting tackle (probably), this is particularly relevant with the NFL Draft only a day away. Enjoy! End Note
I compiled this information from ESPN depth charts and Yahoo Sports information for the draft round and year.
From doing this, I observed that teams, both good and bad, seem to draft and keep their own tackles, not bring in free agents. I don't know if this is because premium tackles cost too much in free agency, or if the tackles just prefer to take less money to stay with the team that drafted them. I would imagine that if you expanded this to include guards, you'd find a similar trend, with more guys chosen later in the draft.
This doesn't really prove anything one way or the other as far as "lower round draft choices don't work out as starting tackles" or anything like that. Sure, most of the players were chosen in the first two rounds, but all that shows you is that they required a larger up front commitment of cash. When you pay a bigger deposit, you're less likely to throw something away. I am sure, especially with offensive linemen, that there are tons of these guys who are talented enough; they just never get a chance because a team has more invested in their earlier picks.
Also, I believe Mike Gandy and Marc Colombo were Dick Jauron picks during his time in Chicago. It is interesting to note that Chicago doesn't start anyone they drafted at LT or RT.
Analyze and enjoy!
|
Team |
Starting LT |
Round (year) |
Original team |
Starting RT |
Round (year) |
Original team |
|
Arizona |
Mike Gandy |
3 (2001) |
Chicago |
Levi Brown |
1 (2007) |
Arizona |
|
Atlanta |
Sam Baker |
1 (2008) |
Atlanta |
Tyson Clabo |
Undrafted |
Broncos |
|
Baltimore |
Jared Gaither |
5 (2007) |
Baltimore |
Willie Anderson |
1 (1996) |
Cincinnati |
|
Buffalo |
? |
|
|
Langston Walker |
2 (2002) |
Oakland |
|
Carolina |
Jordan Gross |
1 (2003) |
Carolina |
Jeff Otah |
1 (2008) |
Carolina |
|
Chicago |
Orlando Pace |
1 (1997) |
St Louis |
Kevin Shaffer |
7 (2002) |
Atlanta |
|
Cincinnati |
Levi Jones |
1 (2002) |
Cincinnati |
Anthony Collins |
4 (2008) |
Cincinnati |
|
Cleveland |
Joe Thomas |
1 (2007) |
Cleveland |
John St. Clair |
3 (2000) |
St Louis |
|
Dallas |
Flozell Adams |
2 (1998) |
Dallas |
Marc Columbo |
1 (2002) |
Chicago |
|
Denver |
Ryan Clady |
1 (2008) |
Denver |
Ryan Harris |
3 (2007) |
Denver |
|
Detroit |
Jeff Backus |
1 (2001) |
Detroit |
Gosder Cherilus |
1 (2008) |
Detroit |
|
Green Bay |
Chad Clifton |
2 (2000) |
Green Bay |
Tony Moll |
5 (2006) |
Green Bay |
|
Houston |
Duane Brown |
1 (2008) |
Houston |
Eric Winston |
3 (2006) |
Houston |
|
Indianapolis |
Tony Ugoh |
2 (2007) |
Indianapolis |
Ryan Diem |
4 (2001) |
Indianapolis |
|
Jacksonville |
Tra Thomas |
1 (1998) |
Philadelphia |
Tony Pashos |
5 (2003) |
Baltimore |
|
Kansas City |
Branden Albert |
1 (2008) |
Kansas City |
Damion McIntosh |
3 (2000) |
San Diego |
|
Miami |
Jake Long |
1 (2008) |
Miami |
Vernon Carey |
1 (2004) |
Miami |
|
Minnesota |
Bryant McKinnie |
1 (2002) |
Minnesota |
Ryan Cook |
2 (2006) |
Minnesota |
|
New England |
Matt Light |
2 (2001) |
New England |
Nick Kaczur |
3 (2005) |
New England |
|
New Orleans |
Jammal Brown |
1 (2005) |
New Orleans |
Jon Stinchcomb |
2 (2003) |
New Orleans |
|
NY Giants |
David Diehl |
5 (2003) |
NY Giants |
Kareem McKenzie |
3 (2001) |
NY Jets |
|
NY Jets |
D'Brickashaw Ferguson |
1 (2006) |
NY Jets |
Damien Woody |
1 (1999) |
New England |
|
Oakland |
Khalif Barnes |
2 (2005) |
Jacksonville |
Cornell Green |
Undrafted |
NY Jets |
|
Philadelphia |
Jason Peters |
Undrafted |
Buffalo |
Stacy Andrews |
4 (2004) |
Cincinnati |
|
Pittsburgh |
Max Starks |
3 (2004) |
Pittsburgh |
Willie Colon |
4 (2006) |
Pittsburgh |
|
San Diego |
Marcus McNiell |
2 (2006) |
San Diego |
Jeromey Clary |
6 (2006) |
San Diego |
|
San Francisco |
Joe Staley |
1 (2007) |
San Francisco |
Marvel Smith |
2 (2000) |
Pittsburgh |
|
Seattle |
Walter Jones |
1 (1997) |
Seattle |
Sean Locklear |
3 (2004) |
Seattle |
|
St Louis |
Alex Barron |
1 (2005) |
St Louis |
Jacob Bell |
5 (2004) |
Tennessee |
|
Tampa Bay |
Donald Penn |
Undrafted |
Minnesota |
Jeremy Trueblood |
2 (2006) |
Tampa Bay |
|
Tennessee |
Michael Roos |
2 (2005) |
Tennessee |
David Stewart |
4 (2005) |
Tennessee |
|
Washington |
Chris Samuels |
1 (2000) |
Washington |
Jon Jansen |
2 (1999) |
Washington |
This FanPost was written by a registered user of Buffalo Rumblings. Its views do not necessarily reflect the views of Rumblings' editorial staff, but are just as valued as our own.
1 recs |
71 comments
|
Comments
Just a note for everyone – part of the HTML table gets cut off if you view the blog in “Narrow” view. To see all of the relevant data, click on the “Wide” view in the user panel in the top right corner of the page (or under our goofy buffalo logo).
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 24, 2009 9:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Brian
This is the second time I’ve seen you say “our goofy buffalo logo”. Who chose it, and what do we have to do to get it changed (LOL)!!!!!
by Byrdeputt on Apr 24, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I chose it. And I’m not changing it – its goofiness is unforgettable.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Apr 24, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It would
look better with a Jet, or a Patriot, and /or a Dolphin being gored by the horns.
by Byrdeputt on Apr 24, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
HAHAHA
I pictured the fierce buffalo with a dolphin and patriot on one horn with a jet dangling from the other. Steam coming out of the nose… that’d be badda$$
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 24, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unlike the Center position ....
Where players have been drafted all over the map … this shows a more clear clustering in the earlier rounds. It’ll be interesting to see what direction we go in. Kudos to whomever did this!
by sabre74kkn on Apr 24, 2009 9:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Teams do seem to put a premium on the LT position, but that could just be that it is “safer” to pick an offensive linemen in round 1 than just about any other position. As you can see, just about every team has a 1st rounder there, and as we know, most teams aren’t great on offense. I think it’s mostly a “Well, if we plug this guy in there, we don’t have to worry about it”. For the most part, NFL teams don’t seem to have the patience to develop players anymore. That could be because of the strange Active / Inactive / Practice squad roster system. Really, with how physical and specialized today’s game is, there needs to be about 65 allowed on a roster and they should all be available on game day.
by syrbillsfan on Apr 24, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What bothers me
more than anything else is the fact that Buffalo is the only team with a ? for LT (LOL).
by Byrdeputt on Apr 24, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But we're not the only ones with a crappy LT.
:-)
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 24, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK,
but at least they know they have a crappy LT. We on the other hand may or may not. The not knowing is what’s driving me crazy (ha ha). It might make the draft a little easier to proceed with if we knew for sure what we have. We can thank Jason and his greedy agent for that !!!!
by Byrdeputt on Apr 24, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry....
if I sound bitter but I am. I wish Jason well but not too much if you get my drift.
by Byrdeputt on Apr 24, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Left tackles
18 were first round picks
7 were second round picks.
Better not wait, or try to rely on catching lightning in a bottle again, at LT. The odds are against it.
by Pistol on Apr 24, 2009 9:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Just because all the other teams are doing it, doesn’t mean you have to. FOr the most part it just seems the NFL is sinuglarly lacking in imagination and the NFL rules don’t allow for a big enough roster. Because of the lack of a minor league, the NFL should expand the rosters, and let every roster spot be active on game day. That would foster more development of players. Right now it is rare for teams to have the patience and fortitude to stick with a Jason Peters or Jabari Greer.
Also, although 18 were firsts and 7 were seconds – it really doesn’t correlate with success. There’s only 10 offenses in the top 10 :)
by syrbillsfan on Apr 24, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For example, look at the teams that don’t have 1st or 2nd rounders at LT. NY Giants, Pittsburgh, Tennessee. They might not light the world on fire, but they have decent offenses. Tennessee might not be great passing, but they have an A+ running game. I think it is really a matter of finding the right guys.
by syrbillsfan on Apr 24, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly. And history shows that you’re more likely to find the right guys in the first two rounds of the draft.
by Pistol on Apr 24, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
History only shows that you give early picks the time they need because of financial concerns. They succeed because they are the only ones given the time they need to become proficient. Jason Peters was successful because the Bills gave him the time he needed to succeed. Sure, early picks are more polished and right-sized for immediate action, but if you always pick up right-sized guys later in the draft and as free agents, you can set up a pipeline of Peters’, as the Bills are doing with Bell. I think if the Bills can stay true to how they’ve been doing things, they can use their early picks on playmakers and not on offensive linemen.
I think this development approach probably works only with the o-line, not the d-line because it seems to be guys that are the right size for d-tackle are truly hard to find.
by syrbillsfan on Apr 24, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We could see a guy picked at 11, 28 or 42…and see some action, however I would like to know of these players, which ones started year one. But hey, good post.
I would love to see demetrius bell comepete and win the starting job, but you have to draft an OT early, and later maybe just to shore up the position for the future. Tommy Modrak can’t make this mistake, and Stone-Cold Dick can’t let him, allow it to happen. The Bills could seriously take one OLB and then all DL and OL if they wanted and I wouldn’t be against it
The Bills CAN win every game
by killascript on Apr 24, 2009 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Awesome Brian!!
Thanks, my buddy and I were just talking about this the other day.
This is even more of a reason to take Oher if Smith is not there
by PWilliams on Apr 24, 2009 10:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
OR
thank you to syrbillsfan. Not sure who did the research
by PWilliams on Apr 24, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was definitely not me – all syrbillsfan. His name is on the post; it’s his work.
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by Brian Galliford on Apr 24, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well that man deserves cookie and a golf clap.
by PWilliams on Apr 24, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It would be a good pick to get Oher, but not necessary.
I think what really can be learned from this chart is that having a premium LT does NOT indicate success one way or the other. If everyone has one, it’s not really all that premium is it?
by syrbillsfan on Apr 24, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear you, but it seems like LT that are taken earlier in the first round have a much better chance to start first year. And I think that is what Jauron wants/needs. And what we need to make the TO signing worthwhile because chances are TO will not be here next year.
by PWilliams on Apr 24, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m all for getting a tackle. I also hope we can swing Pettigrew. My one concern is when do we pick up a linebacker? Of all of our positions of need, I think everyone underestimates LB. Sure, Ellison can start but we have a glaring lack of quality depth at all three linebacker positions. Even among starters, theres a glaring lack of consistency and playmaking ability. As much as we all love DEs and think thats where our problem is, its not. Our defensive problems, in the scheme we run, are lack of plays from the LBs and lack of push from the DT’s.
by syrbillsfan on Apr 24, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DiGiorgio and Bowen...
They are adequate depth IMO. Plus they will draft a LB. so that’s at least two deep at each position isn’t it?
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 24, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We don’t need LB depth, we need a stud LB. That’s what we don’t have now. We have plenty of decent depth already!
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Apr 24, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I agree with you on that one...
so much that I am going to rec that comment.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 24, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we obviously have a lot of glaring concerns. Our defense did look a bit more stout last year and we did not lose that much. I hated seeing Greer go. Hopefully Poz has his breakout year. Our D was on the field a lot last year. I would rather see improvement on our offense to get 4-5 more first downs a game next year which naturally will make our D better.
Pettigrew will def make our O line better but I have to wonder why he was not a red zone threat. 9 TD’s in 3+ years and none in 08. Shocking actually.
by PWilliams on Apr 24, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OSU tended to run inside the red zone and just pound it into the end zone.
He was really good at blocking for that, though.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 24, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent write-up.
I agree it’s not a cause and effect that you get drafted early you are successful. It’s still pretty eye-opening the sheer number of very early picks spent on left tackles.
One thing to note about Arizona… They have a first round RT because their “QB of the future” is a left hander. The guy they had in mind to be their blindside protector was a first rounder. Mike Gandy isn’t supposed to be there.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 24, 2009 10:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting notes...
Of the 63 players on the list, 43 were drafted/signed by the team they play for now. (68%)
The team with the most success in drafting OTs? Bizarrely, it’s Cincinnati, with both of their tackles plus Willie Anderson (BAL) and Stacy Andrews (PHI). A few other teams have drafted three on the list, but no other teams have four.
There are four teams which didn’t draft either of their starting tackles – Chicago, Jacksonville, Oakland, and Philadelphia. Buffalo makes five if Kirk Chambers stays as a starter.
Oddly enough, the only Buffalo player on the list (remaining nameless) now starts in Philly; the only player drafted by the Eagles (Tra Thomas) now starts in Jacksonville; the only player drafted by the Jags (Khalif Barnes) now starts in Oakland; and of course, Langston Walker, the only player drafted by the Raiders, now starts in Buffalo.
So teams with little success in drafting tackles steal from each other. Doesn’t seem like a winning strategy to me!
by Krenn on Apr 24, 2009 10:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If you call that successful...
Cincinatti is now looking at another tackle this year in Andre Smith. It strikes me that they may not be completely happy with their options.
by WhyBillsWhy on Apr 24, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The more I look at this, it just shows how unlikely it seems to have a bonafide bust drafting a tackle in the first round. Hello Mike Williams!
by syrbillsfan on Apr 24, 2009 10:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Robert Gallery
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 24, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least he still plays in the league and is a decent player at another position.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Apr 24, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True that.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 24, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should have said “Monumental Bust”. Gallery turned out to be talented enough, just not at tackle. Plus, he plays for the raiders so it’s tough to say how good he is. But how many linemen have been anywhere close to the spectacular flame out that was Mike Williams?
by syrbillsfan on Apr 24, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps then
Our future should not be Bell (7th Round) and Chambers (6th Round). Let’s get an OT.
by labill on Apr 24, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good job syrbillsfan
I don’t know what this tells but we better get a LT early, over 3/4’s of the starting LT’s were picked in the first 2 rounds.
It also shows you how unlikely and unique a scenario Jason Peters was. It also suggests that it’s not very likely that Bell will become a starting LT in the league. Only Peters, Donald Penn and David Diehl were 5th round or later selections (Jared Gaither was a supplemental draft pick and would have gone early the following year in the real draft). Gotta find that LT early, as the current starting players would suggest.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Apr 24, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That doesn’t tell us anything about Bell. Bell will stand or fall on his own merits, not on the round in which he was drafted. People seem to assume that because he was drafted in round seven it is automatically true that he can’t be any good. If that is so, then we should immediately cut Stevie Johnson and the Patriots should cut that lowly sixth round pick, Tom Brady.
As I keep saying, at this point those of us who are fans are not entitled to any opinion on Bell whatsoever. The last time we had the chance to see him was during the preseason last August when he was still underweight and new to the NFL. The coaches had the chance to observe him in practices all last season and to keep track of his progress (or lack of it). They know how he has been doing in the weight room. They are the only ones entitled to an opinion at this point. We will know by tommorrow night if they believe he is the Bills’ LT of the future or not. What fans have to say on blogs like this is worthless by comparison.
What is also true is that syrbillsfan has done a great job compiling this info. Man thanks.
by Macktruck on Apr 24, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
People seem to assume that because he was drafted in round seven it is automatically true that he can’t be any good.
…it seems that people thinks he follow the Jason Peters path to stardom more than they think he won’t be any good. I’m just saying it’s unlikely he’ll amount to a starting LT based on the current NFL landscape. It’s not out of the question of though because he doesn’t rely on anyone but himself and his coaching. I have no opinion on Bell because he’s never played an NFL snap, but I like his athleticism/size. I just don’t want to get my hopes up for him because of how tough it is for late round picks to become starting tackles in the NFL.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Apr 24, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong location for previous post
Man thanks…
Is that how a man crush starts (joking).
by Byrdeputt on Apr 24, 2009 11:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
by Byrdeputt on Apr 24, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s an obvious typo — should have been “many”. My bad
by Macktruck on Apr 24, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think all my work shows is that if you draft a tackle in round one, he’s going to start. It doesn’t really say if you are any good or not or if it makes your team better or not. It appears no NFL coach is willing to start their project guy even if its for the better of their team. It just seems to me that how good (or how well paid, how high drafted) your left tackle is, it has a minimal effect on your offense as a whole. Both good offensive teams and bad offensive teams have high draft picks at left tackle. So, I’m starting to come around to the idea that we shouldn’t spend a high pick on a tackle, as long as the coaching staff is satisfied with say, Chambers or Bell. Their play would probably be average, which would be good enough for the Bills at this point. I think from a team standpoint, the greatest benefit from their two first round picks would be gained with picks of two of these three positions: DE / TE / OLB. Maybe going with an existing option at LT increases the value of TE, but I’m really sold on the Bills going 1-11 : DE (Ayers?) and 1-28: TE (Pettigrew) or LB (Matthews III).
As far as why all teams pretty much have a 1st rounder at LT, I think it has to do with making a “safe” pick more than anything else. So many players never pan out from any of the other positions, so teams do the safe thing and address LT. That is a sound strategy, but the Bills need playmakers more than they need a franchise left tackle. As long as the replacement does equal or better than 2008 Peters, we’ll be fine.
by syrbillsfan on Apr 24, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It just seems to me that how good (or how well paid, how high drafted) your left tackle is, it has a minimal effect on your offense as a whole
Find me a single position other than QB where that isn’t the case. Even WRs don’t have that much of an impact. The Lions couldn’t get much going despite having one of the best in the league. Roddy White puts up almost identical numbers two years in a row and one year they stink and the next they are great. Am I supposed to think that drafting an outside linebacker is the key to the defense or that TE is the make or break position on offense? Is Robert Ayers going to be what moves this defense from mediocre to above average? I have a hard time seeing that. I think if anything, history has shown us that offensive tackles can have as big of an immediate impact as any position and are more likely to make an impact than any position. Whether we are focused on the short term or the long term, a LT makes sense.
Their play would probably be average
Well, average in the way that everyone with half a brain can get Cs or better in high school. This team could get by all right with some combination of Walker, Chamber and Bell. But can’t you still say that about TE or OLB? This offense with all the weapons they have could easily succeed with Fine. As bad as Ellison is, how much is a new OLB going to improve the run defense?
I disagree on why so many OTs get drafted in the first round. I think it has more to do with the fact that teams are always in need of a left tackle. And in my opinion, that reason is because tackles drafted after the first couple of rounds are rarely good enough to start at that position. At least that is how the evidence that you have provided reads to me.
by kaisertown on Apr 24, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It also shows you how unlikely and unique a scenario Jason Peters was
Peters really had no business going undrafted. If you google around and find old ranking lists and mock drafts, almost everybody had him as a third or 4th round prospect. It shouldn’t surprised Bills fans that he dropped partially due to character.
by kaisertown on Apr 24, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Kurupt said it best already...
“History only shows that you give early picks the time they need because of financial concerns. They succeed because they are the only ones given the time they need to become proficient. "
That reason, along with coaching changes every 3 years (they overhaul the roster to fit their schemes) is why late round projects rarely last or hit field, not too mention that some simply don’t pan out.
by NorCal BillsFan on Apr 24, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those are all good points. But teams also give those early picks more time because they really believed in them when they picked them. 170 (that’s a guess) players were drafted before Bell for a reason (or a variety of reasons). It’s not that I don’t think Bell can succeed, I just think that passing on a player at one of the most important positions in the league because you have Walker, Chambers and Bell doesn’t make any sense to me.
Now maybe Bell really was awesome in practice last year. And maybe he really is a diamond in the rough that the coaching staff thinks is ready for the big time. I trust the coaches to know if that is the case, but I just don’t understand where the assumptions that WE know that Bell is any good are coming from. It’s totally a possibility that Bell is the answer and the coaches will wait to draft an OT, but it’s also a possibility that complex life exists on other planets. I personally have about the same amount of proof for both.
by kaisertown on Apr 24, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Averages and what it could mean for Saturday
First, well done, Syrbillsfan! I know that compiling data can be a royal pain in the butt. Thank you for taking the time to put this together.
I added up all of the rounds in which the LTs and RTs were taken. I then divided the total number by 31 for the LTs (as Buffalo currently has none) and 32 for the RTs. I counted ’undrafted’s as being 8th rounders.
The average starting right tackle was chosen in round 3. Specifically, about 8 picks into the 3rd round—3.25 was the average. This makes a degree of sense in that right tackles are considered to be somehow ‘less important’ than left tackles.
The average left tackle was chosen in round 2. Specifically about pick #34—2.07 was the average. Again, this makes a degree of sense as teams want to get their LTs early. However, it doesn’t mean that teams have been picking guys right at the top of round 1.
For Buffalo, this suggests that waiting until pick #28 or trading (preferably down) to #33—with the Lions—to take an OT is a strategy in keeping with long term trends.
by Ron From NM on Apr 24, 2009 12:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good job Ron!
I knew someone could glean something from this. Once I put it together the one thing that became obvious was that for the most part EVERY NFL team uses the same exact strategy to stock their o-line. That doesn’t mean there isn’t other ways, it just means that what they do. The Bills had success with Peters, so really, they probably could have success again with Bell. At least they are trying something different.
I still can’t fathom why people think the left tackle and right tackle aren’t equally important. Most of the pass rushing DEs work from BOTH sides based on matchup. The reason why Walker looks susceptible to the “speed” type rushers is because teams will play their speed specialist on his side of the line to take advantage of that matchup. I know people say the left side is the “blind” side, which it is, but that doesn’t make it more important than the front side. A guy in your grill is a guy in your grill. Really, I think a teams guard / center / guard combo and their capabilities determine how well your line plays. If you start Duke Preston, you could have Walter Jones and Orlando Pace in their primes and your QB is going to go down. If your center or guards routinely need to double in order to get their blocks, it really limits what you can do. Overall, having five guys that are capable of one on one blocking and remembering their assignments is the key, not how many pro bowls someone went to.
by syrbillsfan on Apr 24, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ron,
The average left tackle was chosen in round 2.
Should the Bills goal to be to draft an average LT?
"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker
by Joe P. on Apr 24, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was speaking of when the average tackle was drafted, not the quality of those guys. Starks, for example, is an above average left tackle taken later than the 2nd round trend.
by Ron From NM on Apr 24, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I figured that. What I really want to know (and am too lazy to find out myself)
is what is the average draft position of the top 10 LTs in the league.
"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker
by Joe P. on Apr 24, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
depends who you think the top 10 OTs are. And the average position wouldn’t be that high solely due to Peters. But if you used the median pick instead of average, it would probably be inside the top 10 picks.
by kaisertown on Apr 24, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only reason that it averages out to the second round is due to two undrafted players. And those guys were also in the league for a few seasons before becoming left tackles (which wouldn’t really help Buffalo). If you were to take out Peters and Penn, then the average drops all the way down to 1.66. I think the median might be a better way to tell how the average team addresses LT and without going back and looking up where every first round OT was taken I would guess it’s about pick 20.
by kaisertown on Apr 24, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Kaiser. I was going to say the same thing about using the median instead of the avg.
by thefourwinds on Apr 24, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, you gotta love 6th? grade math class. Range, Median, Mean and Mode. Averages just don’t represent the set when a couple of them are out of left field.
by kaisertown on Apr 24, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
aren't Median, Mean, and Mode all types of averages?
"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker
by Joe P. on Apr 24, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Averages?
if you drop out Peters & Penn soley based on their being undrafted, does that mean you take away all the LTs taken #1 as well? The reasoning isn’t sound IMO.
by NorCal BillsFan on Apr 24, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Averages
http://www.andrews.edu/~calkins/math/webtexts/stat03.htm
"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker
by Joe P. on Apr 24, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hahaha, you know what I MEANt!
note: my capitalizing and bolding of the word “mean” is to point out that I thought the mean isn’t the best way to find the average when you have a number that could single handedly skew the findings and not that you are actually mean.
by kaisertown on Apr 24, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow... puns are the highest form of comedy...
and you destroyed one.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 24, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah....just had to screw with you a little bit :-)
"Get ready for the pain women…the pain train is coming Whooo Whooooo !!!!!" – Terry Tate Office Linebacker
by Joe P. on Apr 24, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This week's SI...
Had a blurb on tackles. A few good lines from Miami GM Jeff Ireland, who did the research for the draft last year that selected Jake Long:
“Since 2000, 7 of the 80 tackles taken in the first round are not in the league anymore.”
“Of the 23 selected in the top 10 since 1990, only 4 are considered flops: Charles McRAe for the Bucs, Antone Davis with the Eagles, Mike Williams from the Bills, and Robert Gallery. And Gallery has proved to be serviceable at guard.”
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Apr 24, 2009 1:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Awesome job syr
I havn’t read the comments, but a healthy Chris Williams will be the starting RT for Chicago this season.
If/when St. Louis drafts a left tackle second overall, they will have that first round pick start at LT, Barron will move back to RT and Bell will slide back to guard where he has played his entire career.
Cornell Green is only 50/50 to keep his starting job over 2007, 3rd rounder, Mario Henderson. And Willie Anderson will have to hold off Syracuse grad and former second round pick Adam Terry.
So all that could mean that 26 of the 32 starting LTs were either first or second round picks and that Jason Peters and possibly Cornell Green are the only 7th round or undrafted starters. And people really think that Buffalo doesn’t have to address OT early? I have no clue how anyone can assume that Demetrius Bell will be ready to be a capable starting OT on either side this year or why Buffalo should draft a guard/center at 28 or 42 without having selected an OT yet.
by kaisertown on Apr 24, 2009 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And I missed Donald Penn too. So three undrafted players on the list.
by kaisertown on Apr 24, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And thinking about it a little more. If Buffalo were to draft an OT in the first round and say Arizona could grab Eben Britton at 31 and start him at LT, then it could actually be as high as 28 of the 32 teams starting a first or second round LT. That has to be the biggest trend of any position in the league. I’m more confident every day that I would grab Michael Oher if I were running the show.
by kaisertown on Apr 24, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would too
but we aren’t running the show (even though I’m sure we’d do a better job :))
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Apr 24, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is a trend
But if ALL the teams do it, and 2/3 are average or below offensively, then that doesn’t really dictate that the Bills need to follow suit does it? I think we will get the same results from Chambers or Bell that we would get from a draft pick, at least in terms of wins on the field. We will be much better off taking a risk on getting one of the defensive playmakers available to us with the 11th pick, if we want to impact how many games we win. The team with the lowest combination won the Super Bowl last year. If the Bills want to do the right thing, they should buck conventional wisdom, and trust their player development. It worked with Peters, it can work with Bell. Bell is the proper size for tackle, with the proper athleticism. He just didn’t play enough in college, and against weaker competition. He had a year to get acclimated and should be ready to at least compete for the starting job. He or Chambers can get the job done. Drafting a tackle would be the safe choice, but doesn’t necessarily give you the best bang for the buck.
by syrbillsfan on Apr 24, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you syr
It’s almost like a knee jerk reaction to just draft in the first two rounds. I think you’re spot on with developing someone like Bell.
by Byrdeputt on Apr 24, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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