Why 2009 Will Be Different

by MARVelous on Apr 27, 2009 5:13 PM EDT

Phew....what a weekend it was fellas. The culmination of anticipation that started way back on December 28th when the Bills concluded their season in an anti-climatic game at the Ralph vs the NE Patriots. Since then so much has happened. And I'm not about to summarize it all here, but the culmination was yesterday with the NFL Draft. There is a possibility the Bills may go after Leroy Hill of Seattle, or as jri111 pointed out already this morning the Bills should take a gander at players like Tamba Hali of the KC Chiefs.

But for all intensive purposes our roster is set. God willing, no one will sustain a season-ending injury in any rookie OTA's or mini camps this summer, and the Bills will begin the 2009 season with a fully healthy roster....at least we can hope. On paper, there are a lot of things to get excited about, but I'm here to comment on the following thesis of my post here today:

Dick Jauron's whole goal of becoming better in 2009 is simple: Score more points, and have the lead in more games.

Bear with me as I try and lay out this theme I have recognized throughout the off-season as I've chartered every move the Bills have made and tried to read as much as possible from every source of information I have laid my hands on. I know I touched on this back in February but I'm too lazy to link it up right now and no one would read it anyways. But let me throw a few stats at you.

In 2008 the Bills Offense averaged 21 pts per game good for 23rd in the league. In 2008 the Bills Defense on average gave up 21.4 pts per game. For the season the Offense scored 336 pts the Defense gave up 342. Let's take a look at some playoff teams from last year and their Offensive pts per game:

Pittsburg - 21.7, Arizona - 26.7, NE 25.6, Minnesota 23.7, Titans 23.7, Dolphins 21.6

And the Top Defensive units:

Pittsburgh 13.9, Titans 14.6, Eagles 18.1, Ravens 15.2, Miami 19.8, etc

My point of this excercise is, your POINT DIFFERENTIAL needs to be at least +2 pts per game like the Dolphins but on average +3-6 pts for teams that win enough games to qualify for the playoffs. So what this tells me is the Bills are close, real close to getting over the hump as their point differential was only -0.4 pts so I believe this team is closer to becoming a 10-6 football team then they are to becoming a 5-11 team, especially if the Bills improve in 2009, which you think would with a QB entering his 3rd year and he sould be enough better to get this team over the hump if you believe in Trent Edwards as a legit NFL QB.

Dick Jauron's philosophy this entire off-season by going after T.O., drafting Shawn Nelson, signing Dominic Rhodes, drafting two nasty rookie OL and signing C, Geoff Hangartner, all says "we got to score more points." It's simple I know, but the flip side of this philosophy is by scoring points, and subsequently having more leads in football games, the Bills strengths will now come to the forefront in the eyes of Dick Jauron.

In the OBD post-draft presser, there are some great quotes that help me solidify my argument and point to what these guys are thinking at OBD. I believe what I'm about to disect below will allow all of us to understand the reason behind why we have gone after the type of personnel we have this off-season.

Dick Jauron on Shawn Nelson as blocker and his philosophy on having a much improved passing offense in 2009.

"I've always believed the better you are throwing the ball the better you are running it and the better you are running the better you are....they go together....so if we can run it effectively it will make him a better pass receiver and if we can throw it and make them fear the TE, use the TE in the offense that will make him a better blocker cuz they'll have to defend him and they'll be having to be thinking about defending him and you know that adds a lot to a guy's ability to block. It's hard to block anybody if they know it's coming."

I love this quote. Dick Jauron says again that they have to utilize these pass catchers. We must become a more potent passing team and by doing that we will keep defenses more off-balance. We are too predictable. This offense has to become proficient in the passing game to become a better team and increase that point differential from -0.4 to +3 pts to make the playoffs and it starts with the passing attack.

Dick Jauron here comments on a question regarding his team's outside linebacker competititon:

Keith has really played well for us whenever we've asked him to step up and play and we're happy where were at it. We're at the point where we got enough players to challenge him. It's a position just like every position on our football team and very much related to what I just said earlier about running the ball better and how it makes it easier to throw it.....when the whole thing works together when the offense scores more points there's not as much pressure on say the run defense there's more pressure on the pass defense. It'll be an interesting thing to watch develop. I like our guys I like our depth we have right now."

Here again Jauron reitierates his emphasis to score more points. By having more leads, and playing versus teams passing the ball, Dick Jauron thinks his football team will be better. The Bills gave up 122 yds per game in the run game good for 22nd in the NFL and gave up 204 yds per game in the passing game good for 13th in the NFL in 2008. Dick Jauron thinks his team will even be better against the pass in 2009 with development of Posluszny, McKelvin and now Maybin as well as a healthy Schobel and a stable of defensive backs to go up against New England. The Bills have tried so hard to address where the Bills pass offense and pass defense via free agency and the draft.

Of course ultimately it all comes down to the development of Trent Edwards and his ability to take advantage of the assortment of weapons he know possesses. Turk Schonert must be feeling the pressure. With Dick Jauron and the FO giving Schonert all of these weapons for him to use, the pressure now solely relies on Schonert coaching that offense and utilitzing the weapons appropriately so the Bills can become a top 15 offense for the first time in over 5 seasons. The dynamic backfield of Lynch, Jackson and Rhodes provides stability not just in the running game, but most importantly in the pass-protection game. Lynch is a solid blocker, jackson is always in the right place and Rhodes played in Indy, where pass blocking by running backs is their forte. The only major question mark is will the OL hold up to give Trent time? I think it may be a rough go at first, but the talent invested in that OL now is significant and I believe they will be good enough for Trent next season.

But you see Dick Jauron's building of this team, I think finally came to frutition when he got Maybin and Byrd on Saturday. An explosive playmaking DE, and a ball hawking Safety. For this defense to become top 15, it needed a DE that wasn't ok at rushing the passer, they needed to get a guy who was dominant as a pass rusher and Maybin is that guy. He can flat out beat you off the edge and for Kurupt and Bills Nation that is a dream come true.

So what are your thoughts on Buffalo's philosophy of off-season acquisitions? Pretty simple right? Score more points offensively and consequently play with more leads, so our defense can know what's coming and if we know what's coming we can stop it.

Do you think this was the right way to go about building this football team to win in 2009? What are your thoughts on where this team is now compared to 2006 when Dick Jauron & Marv Levy arrived? I think regardless of what you think of the philosophy, they have drafted some pretty good players lately and maybe if they get enough of "their" guys their scheme and philosophy will finally translate to 10-12 wins and a return the Bills to prominence. Cuz if they do, we will all be loving how great these guys are. That's what's on the line Brandon, Modrak & DJ....you have a chance to finally put a franchise back on the map. So for Bills Nation sake as well as yours I hope this huge off-season overhaul finally leads to an AFC East crown.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Comments

I thought 2008 was going to be different.....infact I blindly convinced myself that is was going to be.....

2009 isnt gonna suck me in like that either…..

Im extremely guardedly optimisitic.

and thats all Im gonna be………..because we can change over 1/3 of the roster….but the fact remains the coaching staff is largly intact so that leads me to believe there will be more of the same ineptness that we saw last year……

Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009

by norcaliangelsfan on Apr 27, 2009 5:44 PM EDT reply actions

im with you on that

after 2008, I’m taking it easy on convincing myself of anything. With Brady back, the Bills will have to earn each and every win before I’m convinced of anything.

Great write up Marv, and I totally agree that offense was the focus, I think it should have been and I’m glad OBD agreed. Look at the most significant upgrades not names Maybin this year. Terrell Owens, Dominic Rhodes, Eric Wood, Andy Levitre, Shawn Nelson, Geoff Hangartner. Here we go!

I got to disagree with this though Marv:

But you see Dick Jauron’s building of this team, I think finally came to frutition when he got Maybin and Byrd on Saturday

We heard this last year with McKelvin, Hardy and Ellis.

As you noted, the only question mark is whether or not we can protect Edwards. That is a HUGE if. We obviously set out to counter Jenkins, Wilfork and Ferguson with Hang, Wood and Levitre, but if Walker and Butler arent up to the task of stopping DEs we could be in trouble.

Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.

by poz on Apr 27, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Marv, I very much agree with your analysis. I think this is the year that it finally dawned on Jauron and Co. (as they stare down the barrel of a gun) that they needed to fix the offense, and they have taken some strong steps to do that. The key was beefing up the o-line and adding more targets for Trent. Both were major weaknesses last year, and both appear to have been repaired. My argument for some time has been that, if you fix the offense, it will automaticaly improve the defense by allowing it to play with a lead more often and thus take more chances. That is the situation where “big plays” develop on defense. If you are always behind on the scoreboard the defense has to be far more cautious and it ultimately gets demoralized (as Kyle Williams recently admitted was the case last year).

One small factual quarrel. You say “for this defense to become top 15,” but in fact the Bills’ D ranked 14th in the NFL last year in overall stats (13th against the pass, 22nd against the run). It’s already there. With the additions that have been made, and with the offense doing its part, we should be looking for a top ten D in 2009.

by Macktruck on Apr 27, 2009 5:49 PM EDT reply actions

If Dick Jauron actually sees this through it will be a first in his career

Chicago suffered with inept offense his entire run, didn’t it? I think Mike Brown was solely responsible for two wins the one season they went 13-3.

He was eventually run out because of his unwillingness or inability to fix the offense. I like Mr. Jauron, so do the players, but the record is the record. I hope he becomes un-Jauron offensively this year, but I also want to see them smash the ball up the middle 20 times per game with this new set of interior lineman.

Demoralizing your opponent by imposing your will is something this team hasn’t done offensively for a long time. I think the tools might be there now for a little demoralizing.

by milwaukee on Apr 27, 2009 6:18 PM EDT reply actions

You hit the bullseye my friend!

Smash-mouth football should be our religion in Buffalo. I think our two new Guards have the “mean” demeanor required to face those big NTs, and I am looking forward to seeing it happen. I want to see Trent under center more often with the power running game up the middle and don’t stop, keep pounding it and lets break our opponents backs. Once the power run is established and our opponents have to commit to it, use some play-action in order to get the ball deep into Evans or TO or Nelson

A mean front, a powerful trio of backs, two TEs & two great receivers – this should be a great year!

Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!

by keysh67 on Apr 27, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm with ya Marv

I think the Bills made it clear that improving the offense was priority #1 going into the off-season and now coming out of it. Obviously a lot rides on the fluidity of this offensive line. I’m very interested to see how these draft picks and our existing roster fits together. Nothing could help the development of Trent more than having time and space to throw the football. Also, Turk clearly has a ton of pressure as you mentioned. I’m a firm believer that a good OC can score points regardless of what he has on the field. It’s all a chess game, we’re just playing with better pieces now.
As far as the defense is concerned, the thought of playing with a lead is a great idea. However, during and NFL season, no team is going to play with the lead the whole time. The defense has to give the offense early stops also to give them a chance to build a lead. That being said, I think our defense was close to making a breakthrough last year. It’ll be amazing to see the kind of turnovers are created when a pass rush is generated on a consistent basis (i.e. Seattle last season).
On a complete buzz-kill regard, the saying is “for all intents and purposes” not “intensive purposes”…

by willgarr15 on Apr 27, 2009 6:38 PM EDT reply actions

Intents and purposes

darn it, you beat me to it. Although maybe he meant INTENSIVE!

"It's that time of the year where all teams are involved in making some, to a degree, painful decisions." - Marv Levy

by Jason from OH-IO on Apr 27, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Why 2009 will not be different

I am going to hold off until I get a chance to spend some time preparing my “2009 outlook” but my main points area
1) we still do not have a capable left tackle.
2) I love Maybin, but he is not very polished = at best a 3rd down pass rusher and not an elite one YET.
3) You might at face value love our new guards (Levitre, Wood), and boy do I LOVE those picks. But, look at whom their replacing. As much as we were o.k. with getting rid of Dockery, the reason he was released was because he wasn’t living up to his contract, which had the parameters of a pro bowl guard. I would still argue he was slightly better than average. I also think Butler played very well last year. If these two rookie guards can come in a play equal to those two guys, that would be GREAT, considering they are rookies. Furthermore, you have downgraded the line at RT by replacing Walker with Butler, and don’t even get me started at LT. I do beleive Hangartner is an upgrade a center.
4) We are without Lynch for three games.
5) Our starting TE will be Fine, to me, as much as everyone hates him, Royals was better.
6) We are still starting Chris Kelsay. I am VERY happy with the purge of contracts, but doesn’t Kelsay have to rank as public enemy number one when it comes to not producing up to the contract!
7) Schoebel’s health questions – we were a disaster after this guy went down. To count on a rookie DE (Maybin) is not intelligent.
8) Will the real Trent Edwards please stand up. I was guarded about this, but Brian (and others) have persuaded me, this team will go as far as Edwards takes them, as long as we can come up with some blocking schemes to get him time to release the ball.

Honestly, do you guys really beleive we will make the play-offs this year?

Starting coach in 2010 = JON GRUDEN!!!!!

"It's that time of the year where all teams are involved in making some, to a degree, painful decisions." - Marv Levy

by Jason from OH-IO on Apr 27, 2009 6:55 PM EDT reply actions

The roster is never set

You mentioned two guys (LB Hill, DE Hali). I put up a fanpost about the unexpected availability of Levi Jones. Buffalo shoud go after guys who can help the team, even at the expense of continuity.

by Ron From NM on Apr 27, 2009 7:32 PM EDT reply actions

Levi Jones

Levi Jones would go a long way in making this OL a very good and deep OL. They may be young but there is a mix of veteran leadership there and Jones would add to that . Adding Hill would just be icing on the cake I think the return of Schoebel granted an older Schoebel and the addition of Maybin this Def. will be improved from 2008. Thats saying something because they were not that bad last year.

by BigBadBillsFan on Apr 27, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I love Optimism!

I mean the way i see it, sure the bills may dissapoint, but as long as theres a football team in buffalo im happy!

by NCbillsfan12 on Apr 27, 2009 8:33 PM EDT reply actions

I mean

would you rather pull for a good team, if they moved to Toronto, LA, or somewhere else? i know i wouldnt, jsut to think of it, depressses me

by NCbillsfan12 on Apr 27, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Good post

That is a very good philosophy and the pieces of Jauron’s opus seem to be in place (if this team doesn’t do it, Jauron is done as a head coach) so I do believe that if we can get the lead in a football game, and force the other team to throw it into our stacked defensive backfield, and against a hopefully stronger pass rush, and the ability to blitz because our DBs have more experience and are better, AND then we can start running right up the middle during the second half with our nasty interior line, then maybe, just maybe, I can watch a game that REALLY matters….but unless I see signs during preseason for the upcoming test that comes on September 14th, I can only say that i am skeptical.
BUT this is a very solid strategy that has so far taken nearly 4 years to develop….so lets hope Dicky J, Mr. F, and the TT Team of Turkman and the boy wonder Trent can make it happen….F’n Bills…ya gotta love’em

The Bills CAN win every game

by killascript on Apr 27, 2009 9:30 PM EDT reply actions

Good work MARV

He can flat out beat you off the edge and for Kurupt and Bills Nation that is a dream come true.

Damn straight. Now he needs to produce like we need him to….

They did a good job of adding pieces to our offense, but I’m not convinced it’ll be that much better. With Schonert still in place, we have to expect him to get better, but will it actually happen? He was so bad for much of last season and looked clueless calling plays many times during the year. All those weapons are meaningless if the OC is going to call games like he did last year.

The other concern is Trent. I just don’t see him as a QB that can elevate his game to take us to that next level. He looks so hesitant out there at times and I just don’t know if he has the gall to get the ball downfield more than he has thus far. We need him to get the ball to Evans, Owens, Reed, Nelson in the intermediate areas, which will open it up downfield more. He can’t just check down to the RB’s all the time like last year. From all indications (people at games being part of it), WR’s were open downfield last year, but he just didn’t get it to them. I don’t know how true that is since I wasn’t there, but if it is, he can’t keep doing that this year. He needs to step his game up and get the ball to our weapons.

One thing I hope we see the return of is the slant. With TO, probably the strongest WR in the league, we have to utilize his ability and get it to him on the slant. Evans has the quickness and hands to be more of a threat there too. I don’t know why we didn’t utilize that pass or the screen more often last season, but I hope to see more of them this year.

I wonder how often Jauron will defer this year. If he wants to get leads so badly, he needs to get his O on the field early. No more talk, time for him to lead his team on game day. No more playing conservative and even scared. His job is on the line, he needs to be more aggressive and needs to get the most out of his players.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Apr 28, 2009 12:25 AM EDT reply actions

I'm not sure we can blame edwards

I remember seeing in the Cleveland game last year, the pass that was intended for Royal, which was intercepted and then Scuba Steve came in for the tackle… Well this play really bothered me because Lee Evans was spread out wide right and he did nothing, he simply turned around on the line.. It was so obvious that he was not in the play even I could see it. If you want to open things up in the intermediate areas, you need to use your speedy guys to stretch the field in order to get the defense back-pedaling. Ultimately Trent should not have thrown that ball but the play was so poorly designed it was incredibly painful to watch.

How they kept Schonert on board is beyond me!

Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!

by keysh67 on Apr 28, 2009 8:53 AM EDT up reply actions

hahahaha, you guys and Scuba Steve. Have you guys started some kind of fan club?

Are we drafting Dino's now?
"6'6" monster receiver with a Terradactyl wingspan "....... Keysh67

by Billsfanstuckinthesouth on Apr 28, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

re

yeah again, I’m not saying this WILL translate to more points and a 10-11 win season, but what I’m saying is you have to respect the moves they made on the offensive side of the football. That’s clearly where our main concern is, Sure, Trent may not be up to it, but if so, it’s not the FO’s fault for not providing him enough weapons. I know Turk has to call better plays and have a better philosophy on offense, but ultimately Trent needs to take this offense on his shoulders and get them into good plays, audible, read defenses. We need to finally see all his Stanford smarts and studying of film pay off. I mean the weapons are there, but yeah, at the game I went to and from what I saw on TV, Trent checked down way too often when guys were open. He got gun shy. Something happened from week 6 – week 17. He wasn’t the same player as he was in the last 4 mins of the Oakland game when he threw strike after strike. In the NYJ game in buffalo, his one TD to Derek Fine, Fine was open for 10 mins waving his hands before Trent threw the ball. That’s why Turk is so damn important. He has to help Trent get the ball out quickly and recognize that.

MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens

by MARVelous on Apr 28, 2009 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions

If Turk lets him audible...

ultimately Trent needs to take this offense on his shoulders and get them into good plays, audible, read defenses.

Remember how livid we were when we found out Fairchild had no audibles built in? Maybe that was a direct result of Losman being Losman but that still ticks me off.

I also think you are selling Trent short. He has the cajones when he needs them. I wish he had them all the time but at the end of that Browns game after throwing three picks he threw a frozen rope to Royal to set up the last field goal attempt.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on May 1, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions

With Schonert still in place, we have to expect him to get better, but will it actually happen? He was so bad for much of last season and looked clueless calling plays many times during the year. All those weapons are meaningless if the OC is going to call games like he did last year.

Just like a rookie player to a second year player has some growing to do, so does a coordinator. I think even if he isn’t better this year, he will look better with the weapons we have. :-)

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on May 1, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Thank you for that!

I wonder how often Jauron will defer this year. If he wants to get leads so badly, he needs to get his O on the field early.

I remember that the only time I ever really got into a Geronimo post was when he was talking about playing with the lead. I was like four or five beers in and I just ripped DJ for deferring on the kick off if he wants to play with a lead. If you want the lead, go friggin take it at the beginning of a game.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on May 1, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Offensive focus

Great comments. I’m wondering how all these weapons will allow us to keep the offense on the field. Scoring points is one thing that we desperately need, but one of the real problems with last year is the effect that our 3 and out had on our defense. When the opposing team’s offense is out there for a majority of the time, it’s gonna take it’s toll on your Defense particularly as the game goes into the final quarter. Not only are they operating conservatively by then, they’re exhausted. With more weapons (and hopefully time) I think Edwards has the key to opening up the game…not just by scoring points, but by giving the Defense a break. I’d love to see an analysis of playing time like Marv put together for points scored and allowed. The new additions (and the obvious faith the coaches have in our remaining veterans) to the Offensive line will give Edwards time and most importantly the new addition of TO will give defenses something else to contend with. And scoring Shawn Nelson in the Fourth round will serve both functions. He better be hitting the weight room and prepping with Maybin opposite him.

It’s April. I’m always hopeful. And I’m always gonna be a fan.

by RockPiler on Apr 29, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions