How Buffalo managed a winless AFC East record in '08
In 2008, the Buffalo Bills went 7-3 against the ten teams they played that aren't members of the AFC East. Which divisional opponent fared better than the Bills in that department? The answer may surprise you - not a single team. The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots also finished 7-3 in non-division games, while the New York Jets were just 5-4.
How, then, did the Bills finish 7-9, two games back of the third-place Jets in the division? That'll happen when you're 0-6 against your three chief rivals.
The painful fact of the matter is that in 2008, the Buffalo Bills had a playoff-caliber football team - when they weren't playing their most important games. During those contests, the Bills were closer to resembling the Detroit Lions or the St. Louis Rams - the only other NFL teams to go winless in their respective divisions last season (and, not-so-ironically, owners of the top two selections in this past April's Draft).
Exactly how did the Bills manage to avoid picking up a win against the Dolphins, Pats and Jets? It's not exactly rocket science, folks.
Typically, the team that scores the most points wins.
The Bills scored 26.5 points per game in their ten non-division games last season. Their consistent offensive attack in those matchups helped them overcome a largely unspectacular defense that gave up over 21 points per game to some of the worst teams in the league. Needless to say, those statistics changed dramatically in-division.
First, it's important to note that unlike in previous seasons, the Bills actually avoided getting blown out in their intra-division matchups last season. Their widest margin of loss was just 13 points in the season finale against the Patriots. At a bare minimum, the Bills had a fighter's chance in each of the six contests.
Defensively, the Bills were on par with the rest of their divisional opponents, giving up 21.8 points per game - as compared to the Dolphins' 19.5, the Pats' 20 and the Jets' 22. The defense did enough to keep the Bills in each game.
It's the offense that did Buffalo in. While the Dolphins (24.2 points per game), Patriots (24) and Jets (23) were putting up solid point totals, the Bills managed to score a paltry 12.2 points per game in their six losses. Call me crazy, but if you're pumping out four field goals on average in your most critical games, you're probably not going anywhere - and that's exactly where the Bills went.
"Run and stop the run" is cliche for a reason - it works.
Much has been made about Buffalo's weak play along the offensive line against the division's excellent 3-4 defenses. Those discussions are highly accurate, as the Bills were the worst team in division games running the ball. It didn't stop there, however; Buffalo's run defense was shoddy as well.
The Bills ended up averaging 106.8 yards per game on the ground in division games - but only after rushing for 187 yards in New York (a 31-27 loss) and 161 yards in the finale to New England. Through their first four games, the Bills were averaging a paltry 73.3 rushing yards, including a rather pathetic 30-yard outing in a home loss to the Jets. Meanwhile, the only team to approach Buffalo's rushing mediocrity was the Dolphins, who averaged 104 rushing yards per game - a figure that dwindled to 81.6 when discounting their monstrous performance in New England when the 'Wildcat' was first introduced. New England (123.5) and the Jets (116.2) had very little trouble running the ball in-division.
Meanwhile, the only team to surrender more rushing yards per game than Buffalo's 123.3 yards per game in-division was New England (124.5); the Jets were pretty bad in that department as well (114.7). The Dolphins - by no mere coincidence the winners of the division - gave up 99.2 yards per game on the ground.
Here's another cliche - win the turnover battle.
There's no better cure for an ailing offensive attack than killer field position after a key turnover. Unfortunately for Buffalo, the team severely lacked in this department as well.
Division-winning Miami picked up a whopping 15 turnovers and 13 sacks in just six games. The Jets logged 10 turnovers and 19 sacks. New England's defense showed its age by nabbing just six turnovers, but made up for it with a respectable 12 sacks. Buffalo? Division lows - by leaps and bounds - with 5 forced turnovers and a measly 4 sacks. In a word - ouch.
What's that? Your stomach's not doing backflips yet? Here are two more stats for you: of the 44 sacks that the Dolphins, Patriots and Jets picked up, 18 of them (40.9%) were on Bills quarterbacks. How about those 31 turnovers? Yep - 16 (51.6%) were committed by Buffalo.
Have the Bills seen the light?
Let's see - can't score, can't run, can't stop the run, can't avoid shooting yourself in the foot (or forcing your opponent into mistakes). That'll set some low expectations right there. Quite simply, the Bills deserved to be winless against their division rivals.
To their credit, the Bills have at least made attempts to address some of these (very basic) issues this off-season. In need of points offensively, the Bills signed WR Terrell Owens, a virtual lock to score 10 touchdowns per season throughout his career. In order to run the ball more effectively, the Bills re-tooled the interior of their offensive line to deal with the division's massive nose tackles. They drafted two players that they hope can aid the pass rush (DE Aaron Maybin) and provide a play-making presence (FS Jairus Byrd).
The changes have been made - by all four teams - and with a far tougher slate of games on each team's plate, intra-division games become all the more critical. Buffalo lost six games to these teams last season because they struggled in the most basic football areas - scoring points, playing physically and making plays. If they can't improve in those areas, the Bills could be staring a repeat of '08 in the face - and this time around, 7-3 out of the division is far less likely.
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Comments
I was about to eat some Fruity Pebbles.
I’m not hungry anymore.
It's just a game.
by jj24 on May 30, 2009 6:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Get some real cereal man.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on May 30, 2009 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude, don’t you dare knock Fruity Pebbles.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on May 30, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cinnamon Toast Crunch, all the way
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 30, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Always partial to Lucky Charms meself
If the Bills were a drug, I could only hope they were like speed so I could lose some weight as well.
by WABillsfan on May 30, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ice cream cone
It’s the breakfast of champions and doesn’t leave any dishes. That or a handful of cookies.
by Ron From NM on May 30, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought leftover cold pepperoni pizza was the breakfast of champs, along with a brewski
Or at least thats what I told myself in college
If the Bills were a drug, I could only hope they were like speed so I could lose some weight as well.
by WABillsfan on May 30, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
add peppers and onions on that pizza and you have all four major food groups.
Delightfully Ignoring The Truth since 1995.
by NeverendingOptimism on May 30, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds good to me, I better order one up tonight!
(443): My mom came into my room and told me to flip off the tv. I gave it the middle finger. Note to self: STOP SMOKING THIS S#!T
-textsfromlastnight.com
by WABillsfan on May 30, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I always thought cigarettes and a couple of coffees was the breakfast of champions.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 31, 2009 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought leftover cold pepperoni pizza was the breakfast of champs, along with a brewski
I always thought cigarettes and a couple of coffees was the breakfast of champions.
And then we wonder why north americans have some of the worst diets in the world…
by CanadianBillsFan on May 31, 2009 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, we don’t all eat grilled moose burgers from the prior days hunt for breakfast like you Canucks do. Right? :)
Personally, I don’t eat breakfast. Just coffee. Occasionally, I’ll have a banana or cereal bar.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 31, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have taken a liking to enligh muffins recently...
but seriously cold pizza is awesome for breakfast.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on May 31, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cold pizza andbeer. Gotta love it!
by CanadianBillsFan on May 31, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice sarcasm there K. Notice how I wrote “North Americans”? I’m not any better then you guys.
by CanadianBillsFan on May 31, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow.
That stat is jaw-dropping.
the Bills managed to score a paltry 12.2 points per game
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on May 30, 2009 9:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, and it’s the reason why some of us were so insistent that the Bills focus on improving the offense during the offseason. Sacks and turnovers are nice, but if the o-line can’t dominate the LOS the team isn’t going anywhere. One thing Brian does leave out — a key reason the Bills had trouble running the ball was that opponents were able to stack the box since they knew that we had no passing attack aside from Lee Evans (who they could easily shut down).
The disaster that was last season all goes back to the 2008 draft and the decision to take McKelvin at #11 instead of resigning Jabari Greer. If the Bills had traded down from #11 instead and then used the resulting picks to target TE John Carlson from Notre Dame (who was Seattle’s leading receiver as a rookie in 2008), along with a new Center to replace Fowler/Preston, it would have made a huge difference. I have no doubt McKelvin will be very good, but the upgrade he provides over Greer (who after all managed to shut down T.O. in the Monday Night game with Dallas) doesn’t begin to equal the improvement to the offense we could have achieved by trading down.
by Macktruck on May 30, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent Article
One of the best pieces i’ve read – 7-3 in non divisional games is quite good – even if it is against sisters of the poor.
I didn’t realize the turnovers for us in the division and sacks against us – ouch is right. Not good – emial this to DJ so he knows. i’m sure they do. but these are great areas that they can work on and shouldn’t be too hard to correct
Everyone has a photographic memory… some just don’t have film
by J2 on May 30, 2009 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No mention of getting out-coached in each game? At least by Sparano and Belichick. Mangini only really out-coached Jauron in the first game, and both sucked in the second game. Turk was obviously mediocre to bad in every game, as well.
First, it’s important to note that unlike in previous seasons, the Bills actually avoided getting blown out in their intra-division matchups last season. Their widest margin of loss was just 13 points in the season finale against the Patriots. At a bare minimum, the Bills had a fighter’s chance in each of the six contests.
Yay! Even though the margin of defeat wasn’t huge, we weren’t in either Dolphins or Pats game really. From owning Miami to getting owned by them in one season was pretty pathetic.
Of course, getting some turnovers would be nice for once. Avoiding them needs to happen as well. Your numbers show just how pathetic our pass rush is, yet again…
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 30, 2009 12:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Being out coached scares me the most
I can see this newly tooled offense having some really good games where they rack up 30+ points, but against our division rivals I’m not expecting much different, and thats just as you say out-coached. Miami or New England know our tendencies too well.
by south123 on May 30, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eye Opening
I knew the Bills were bad in division games but these numbers really show just HOW bad things really were. I can’t wait to see a similar analysis after the 2009 season and compare it to the disgusting numbers contained in this one. It’s hard to believe they could actually do worse. Unless there is significant improvement this season we will be talking about what changes the new coaching staff is doing to correct these things.
I'll donate $1 to help Mary Wilson pay the estate tax...who's with me?!?
by O.J. Is My Bodyguard on May 30, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It amazing how in the games against our rivals, all of the basic, fundamental football went out the window
Our inability to protect the ball, run the ball, and even get a pass attack going were just horrible. Our D did its best and kept the games close, which is all we could have asked from them last year, our O let them down horribly.
Hopefully with Maybin and Byrd on the field this fall we can get some turnovers and force some short fields for our to work with against our foes. Like OJ above, I hope when we compare 2008 and 2009 we see a huge improvement across the board INCLUDING wins against our rivals this year.
If the Bills were a drug, I could only hope they were like speed so I could lose some weight as well.
by WABillsfan on May 30, 2009 3:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think . . .
I just threw up in my mouth a little bit. This was and still is hanging over my head as a diehard Bills fan. It sucks knowing that if we won half of our division games (which we usually do) we would have gone 10-6. Then again in retrospect it also sucks knowing that 10-6 probably would not have gotten us into the playoffs last year. Love the article because it is important to understand why, but this is something I still haven’t gotten over as a sports fan. I saw a funny tee shirt in a bar on Elmwood and to be honest it made me feel better about the 2008 season, the tee shirt read “Buffalo Football . . . At Least We’re Not Detroit”
by uscBillsGamecock on May 30, 2009 3:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well I was already officially depressed because the Angels are playing about as well as the Nationals lately....
but now after reading this I’m drinking a 5th of Capt and standing on the icy edge of Mt Shasta………looking down at my final resting place……….ahhhhhh yes.
Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009
by norcaliangelsfan on May 31, 2009 12:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’ll split a handle with you and we can leap majestically into the sky together a la Thelma and Louise. I wanna be Gina Davis, whichever one she was. You can be Susie Sarandon.
It's just a game.
by jj24 on May 31, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hah!
I didn’t realize that was Losman at first. I thought it was Lindell.
"It's not delivery, it's DiGiorgio!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on May 31, 2009 1:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Linked on ESPN this morning.
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/afceast/0-8-123/Around-the-AFC-East—Henne-s-time-in-2009-.html
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on May 31, 2009 11:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow we are really starting to get Graham’s attention. I guess that the great work from Brian and Co. is really starting to pay off. Congrats guys.
by CanadianBillsFan on May 31, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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