Fantasy Football: Buffalo Bills post-draft outlook
With the post-draft portion of the off-season in full effect, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the fantasy football prospects of the Buffalo Bills' new offensive lineup. While the Bills shouldn't be considered a top offense, especially one for fantasy purposes, there are a number of individual players that will be fantasy enigmas relevant this upcoming season. Let's take a quick look at and possible projections for each of the Bills' weapons for the 2009 season.
QUARTERBACK
Quarterback is the main position on offense, the position that comes under the most scrutiny from fans, and probably the one position that determines a successful fantasy football season. Most leagues only start one quarterback, so it's unlikely the Bills will have a starting QB on most fantasy rosters this year. In two-QB formats (or ones that requires a strong backup), however, they could get a look.
Trent Edwards: Going into his third season, and second as the full-time starting QB for the Bills, Edwards will have a lot on his shoulders. He hasn't been anything more than an average player thus far (and hardly fantasy relevant), but with the weapons surrounding him, he could have a very surprising season if all things fall into place like we hope. As always, he'll be an injury concern, which does limit his fantasy value to an extent. It's also unknown how Turk Schonert will adjust game plans to fit our offense this year, with not only more weapons in the receiving games, but also a very good running back trio and a re-shuffled offensive line.
Prediction: 14 G, 290/435, 2950 yards, 19 TD, 15 INT, 140 yards rushing, 2 TD.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: Coming off a season in which he started 12 games for the Bengals, Fitzpatrick will be an experienced backup that the Bills and us fans hope won't see the field. However, the chances of that seem rather slim. With Edwards' injury history suggesting predicting he'll miss some time, it's quite likely we'll see Fitzpatrick at some point. He's not as accurate as Edwards, nor does he have the yards per attempt numbers that we saw from Trent last season. He is a very solid running QB, so bonus points there!
Prediction: 5 G, 65 completions, 110 attempts, 650 yards, 5 TD, 6 INT, 100 yards rushing, 0 TD.
Running backs, wideouts, tight ends, kickers and the defense after the jump!
RUNNING BACK
Running back is probably the most secure and unquestioned position on the team. With three talented, proven NFL runners, the Bills have plenty of options, but how will the touches be distributed? Will Marshawn Lynch serve the full three games he was suspended for and what happens in his absence? Despite the stability we seem to have at the position, it's still not known how the work will be distributed.
Marshawn Lynch: Lynch is the most talented of the bunch, but he's also the one who won't be available all season. Facing that three game suspension to start the year, his fantasy outlook remains a question mark. With a talented duo behind him, there's no way Lynch sees the first- or second-round status he saw in fantasy drafts of the past year. I have a hard time figuring out how much work he'll get, but I'd imagine he'll be the workhorse once he returns. I think he'll probably end up a third round pick in leagues if his suspension isn't reduced, and could creep into the mid-second round if it is reduced.
Prediction: 14 G (after suspension is reduced), 240 carries, 1000 yards rushing, 7 TD, 35 catches, 260 yards receiving, 1 TD.
Fred Jackson: Despite the longing for a new contract, Jackson will enter the season as a dependable backup with a ton of value for the Bills' offense. His fantasy value isn't quite as high though. He will likely see a good portion of the work in Lynch's absence with about 10 touches a game once he returns. Freddie will remain a dependable runner with great receiving skills, but his fantasy value depends on Lynch's presence in the lineup. If Lynch misses more than the three games he was suspended for, Jackson will be a quality No. 2 RB for fantasy teams once again. He's a good mid-to-late round RB option.
Prediction: 16 G, 150 carries, 630 yards rushing, 4 TD, 35 catches, 280 yards receiving, 0 TD.
Dominic Rhodes: Rhodes was one of the best backup runners in the league last season filling in for an injury-riddled and ineffective Joseph Addai for long stretches. He has proven to be a dependable, well-rounded RB in the NFL. It remains to be seen how he will be used, especially once Lynch returns from his suspension. My best guess is he'll see sporadic duty at that time - probably around 4-6 touches a game. If Lynch or Jackson are injured, Rhodes becomes a good pickup for fantasy owners. Until then, I don't think he's worth owning except in really deep leagues.
Prediction: 16 G, 80 carries, 300 yards rushing, 1 TD, 20 catches, 180 yards receiving, 0 TD.
*****
WIDE RECEIVER
Like the RB position, the Bills' WR group is deep and talented. However, it has not been a big play unit and may not be once again if Edwards doesn't take the next step towards becoming a bigger-play QB. The starting duo of Lee Evans and Terrell Owens is one of the top pairs in the league; it'll be up to Trent to keep both (mostly T.O.) happy this season. The fantasy value of the rest of the unit is very low, so don't expect to see them owned in too many leagues.
Lee Evans: Is Evans going to be lost in all the hoopla of the T.O. addition and the Lynch suspension come draft day? He very well could be, which means he could present a good bargain for owners. I don't think he'll ever be the consistent threat that fantasy owners look for in their starting receivers, but he's always the big play threat that teases the best of us. With T.O. occupying certain double teams often this season, Evans could have his most consistent season to date if he is single covered this year. I think we'll be seeing Trent taking more shots deep to him, so the big play could be a bigger part of his game again this season. I'd rank him as a third WR for most fantasy teams if his TD totals can rebound.
Prediction: 16 G, 60 catches, 900 yards, 6 TD.
Terrell Owens: T.O. was easily the Bills' biggest addition this off-season and one of the most surprising signings the NFL has seen in some time. His numbers have been declining ever so slightly the past few years, but he remains one of the biggest threats at the WR position in the league. Playing on a one-year deal, T.O. will be as motivated as ever, which could translate to a monster fantasy season. Of course, this depends on Edwards being able to get him the ball and keep him happy all season. Good luck, kid. T.O. should remain a borderline No. 1 WR for most fantasy teams.
Prediction: 16 G, 68 catches, 1000 yards, 8 TD.
Josh Reed: Reed is a better real-life WR than he is a fantasy one, and it isn't even close. The ultimate chain mover, Reed isn't much of a fantasy option unless you play in a league where you start 4 or 5 receivers. As the No. 2 WR last year, Reed had 56 catches in 13 games. Extrapolating that out for 16 games, he would have pulled in roughly 70 balls last year. Not too shabby. But he averaged under 11 yards per catch and found paydirt just one time. That's why his value is so low as a fantasy receiver. In a PPR league, Reed's value is slightly higher, but he should remain on your league's waiver wire barring injury to one of our starters.
Prediction: 16 G, 50 catches, 520 yards, 1 TD
Steve Johnson: Everybody's favorite seventh rounder from a year ago, Johnson saw increased playing time as the season progressed. He looked good out there, but wasn't very productive. I don't expect to see much of an increase in his production this year, and it's hard to imagine he'll see much work outside of four- and five-WR sets. He could be a guy that dresses for every game because of his potential as a starting punt gunner, but his offensive production will likely have to wait another year until T.O. moves on. His size does make him a red zone option, however.
Prediction: 16 G, 18 catches, 200 yards, 2 TD.
James Hardy: One of last year's draft disappointments, Hardy will have a tough time cracking the lineup this year for extended playing time. And that's before we talk about his injury. He'll be working all summer on rehabbing and strengthening his knee, which will limit his time with Trent and the offense. He could fall behind Johnson on the depth chart and see even less time than expected. He also could continue a fast recovery and become the red zone threat we all envisioned him as. Like Johnson, I think he'll have to wait another year before seeing his production increase. I also think he'll see his fair share of 'DNP' this year, with Johnson and Roscoe Parrish's special teams ability potentially taking precedent to him. If that happens, don't call him a bust, just call him a casualty to the numbers game for this year. Season three is when he needs to make his presence felt, for sure.
Prediction: 10 G, 14 catches, 160 yards, 1 TD.
Roscoe Parrish: If he's still with the team, don't expect Roscoe to put up any numbers of significance on offense. His major value will remain in the punting game, where he'll continue to be one of the most dangerous return men in the league. He just won't have any sort of fantasy value. Sorry Roscoe.
Prediction: 16 G, 13 catches, 170 yards, 1 TD, 2 punt return TD.
*****
TIGHT END
The TE position of the Buffalo Bills has been fantasy irrelevant for as long as fantasy football has been played. I'm not sure we'll see a big difference this year, despite the addition of a very intriguing receiving option in Shawn Nelson. Expect a few TD's, a decent number of catches and only average yardage production out of this bunch. It'll still be a better unit than in years' past, though.
Derek Fine: Fine will enter the year as the Bills' starting TE after showing promising once he was healthy last year. He wasn't much of a receiving option, but does have the skills to have a productive season. I just don't know how many chances he'll get in the passing game.
Prediction: 16 G, 28 catches, 300 yards, 2 TD.
Shawn Nelson: Nelson has by far the most upside of our tight ends, but it may be tough for the rookie to make the transition from Conference USA to the NFL too quickly. I expect there to be bumps in the road, but flashes of brilliance out of Nelson. Watch for some big plays out of the kid, but also stretches where he disappears. He's another guy where big things should be expected a year from now.
Prediction: 16 G, 25 catches, 300 yards, 2 TD.
Derek Schouman: Bah, Schouman is nothing special and probably isn't even a lock to make the team. I don't see him as much of an option in the passing game, nor do I expect to see him get a ton of playing time once Nelson is ready.
Prediction: 16 G, 10 catches, 85 yards, 0 TD.
I'm guessing my predicted receiving totals are likely too generous and don't quite synch up with my predictions for the quarterbacks, but I also don't expect all these guys to be healthy for a full season. Assuming we'll see some missed games from the receivers, the numbers could be bumped down a little bit.
*****
I know many of you think I'm crazy for some of these predictions, but that's OK. I'd love to hear from you guys and what you see for the season coming up, fantasy-wise. Just remember, only one of us is the two-time defending Buffalo Rumblings Fantasy Football champ... and it's not you!
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76 comments
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Comments
all I'll say
is if Lee Evans only has 60 catches we will be 7-9 or worse. Our best offensive weapon (yes above Lynch) should near 90 catches this year with a huge spike in underneath, move the chains catches.
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
by MARVelous on May 4, 2009 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That’s not his game though. He’s never been an underneath guy and I still think Reed figures heavily into that role. If Evans and TO combine for 130+ catches around 2000 yards and in the neighborhood of 15 TD’s, our O will be much improved. Don’t overrate Evans that much, he’s not that great!
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i do
overate him….cuz he’s never had a legit #2. Not sure T.O. will be that either, but Lee can win slants and hooks more easily now IMO…..as long as between Lee and T.O. there is ~150 catches, then we are fine. I don’t care who they go to, but they should go to Lee a lot more now with the addition of T.O. and possibly Shawn Nelson’s impact
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
by MARVelous on May 4, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But who’s to say TO isn’t the #1 WR? I think he is with Evans #2…and that could show in the statistics come the end of the season. I don’t know how we can expect Evans to win slants and hooks now since he’s never really shown any penchant for it in the past. He’ll see less double teams deep, but it’s not like he was doubled on 8 yard passes before in his career.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
past seasons don’t predict that everything change now….and I get what you’re saying. I just believe that Trent being more comfortable with Lee than T.O. and the multi-dimensional weapons that we have now, really benefits the fastest, best WR on the field. T.O. will have to get put in motion a lot like he did last year in Dallas cuz he can’t get off the line of scrimmage as well anymore. That means DB’s will be playing off of Evans for fear of being beat deep, which I hope leads to more catches on 10 yard patterns with teh combined efforts of LB’s and CB’s to cheat up to play zone on backs out of the backfield and Nelson/Fine/Reed/Johnson over the middle….
Either way, as long as T.O. and Lee as you’re saying have 130+ catches it should equate to many more points
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
by MARVelous on May 4, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Evans becomes Lofton while Owens is a Bill, imo.
"It's not delivery, it's DiGiorgio!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on May 4, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
your right has never been an underneath guy and i don't understand it w/ his speed dragging across the field he would be impossible to cover.
however, i’m not even going to try and predict his stats, but i will say this i really doubt T.O. is a number 1 receiver on many fantasy teams this year being that his qb is trent edwards (now i love the kid, but i not every fantasy owner is a bills fan, and most people that aren’t bills fans don’t think he’s worth a s(#%)
but if i had to guess i’d say that evans should be running some more underneath stuff this year, and although that has never been his game i think that’s because he’s never had anyone like TO who can also draw the coverage deep. before it was evans who drew the coverage and reed who went underneath, now we have both TO and evans who can draw coverage and the other can go underneath from time to time.
by Shovel51 on May 4, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
His game is to be a burner and stretch the field pulling away safeties from the middle of the field so that TO and Reed can catch all those underneath balls. Lee is not a major posession reciever but rather the game changer who might only have four or five catches a game but one goes for a 60 yrd td and the other for a 35 yrd play. He will get his numbers on big plays not a lot of receptions
by ballinbills1315 on May 4, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's a burner, a great route runner, and has arguably the best hands in the league, he's complete he can do whatever he is asked of the only that he doesn't have is the size to be a big time red zone target.
you don’t have to have size to be a possession (chrebet,welker,reed is on our team), you need sure hands and need to be able to find the hole in coverage. and he can do that.
by Shovel51 on May 4, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right on...
I can’t believe anyone would say Evans is over-rated…he does what he has been asked to do. You don’t see him complaining to the coaches about which patterns he should be running, etc. He does his job: he is fast as can be, has the best on hands on the team (and for a WR his size, its amazing that he rarely loses the battle for the ball), and is our best route-runner, the coaches ask him to go deep to pull the safety(s) one side of the field. What about him is over-rated? He is much better than Darius Heyward-Bey (selected #7 overall) and all the other “speedy WRs” selected in the first round over the last 4 years. Please tell me of another field-stretching WR that has done more than Evans since Evans was drafted. Would you rather have Braylon Edwards or Lee Evans? I for one, will take Evans every day and twice down the field on Sundays.
by NorCal BillsFan on May 4, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Calvin Johnson and Roddy White are both better than Evans. Maybe they havn’t compiled the same stats, but at this point they are just as good of downfield threats and have also become more well-rounded receivers.
It’s not that Evans is actually overrated. It’s when people start predicting numbers for him that would put him up in the top 5 WRs in the league, that makes people say that he is getting overrated.
by kaisertown on May 4, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha.. your kidding right? at least about roddy white, and calvin johnson is a completely different receiver than evans, and so is roddy white if you factor in size..
i’m not going to argue that calvin johnson might be, however he gets thrown to more often, and at 6’5" 240 it’s hard to compare him and evans.
but roddy white has had one good year, and that was last year, if he can prove that he can go two years and have production and not drop pass after pass like he did before last year i would put him toward the top but i’m not sure i would still put him ahead of lee.. i just don’t understand why some people are so high on white, he is a good receiver but he has done nothing spectacular at least not on a consistant basis… lets see how he does this year, and he will probably do alright w/ the running game they had (which is a big reason for his break out year), and tony g. will definately help him..
by Shovel51 on May 5, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In 2007, with a combo of Chris Redman, Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington being shuffled in and out of the lineup, White caught 83 passes for 1,200 yards. Those are pretty similiar numbers to Evans’ career highs. White’s 88 catches and nearly 1,400 yards from last season blows anything Evans has done out of the water. Evans has been a solid and consistent performer, but he has ONE season where he has caught more than 63 passes. Why do people think he is suddenly going to catch so many?
I figured that since you mentioned the 6’3’’, 220 pound Braylon Edwards, that every deep threat was in the discussion regardless of what else they could do. Calvin Johnson averaged an absurd 17.1 yards per catch last season and is a better deep threat than Evans, so I think he should count. The fact that he is also a more complete player should just be a bonus.
by kaisertown on May 5, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My bad, it was NorCal who mentioned Braylon Edwards.
by kaisertown on May 5, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Roddy White>>>>>Lee Evans
If you’ve ever watched Roddy White, you’d see why. That guy makes some phenomenal catches and is so much more consistent than Evans. He’s also put up much better numbers the past two seasons. I don’t know why Evans is even comparable with White these days. White’s numbers and impact have blown Evans’ away.
Roddy White has two seasons in a row with 80+ catches and 1200+ yards, Evans had one in 2006.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 5, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
40 TDs for the offense (and ST)
I like it — that is a powerful offense. That is 17.5 points a game — without counting FGs and Defensive TDs. I think it is pretty accurate, too — putting the Bills around 23 points per game is realistic.
by labill on May 4, 2009 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone think defenses will try to double cover both Evans and TO, leaving Nelson and Reed open much more than the wideouts?
by thefourwinds on May 4, 2009 12:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think I’d be alright with that- just keep moving the chains underneath with those two. Take away the home runs, we’ll play small ball.
Penn Staters belong at Penn State. The problem with a lot of kids is they just don’t know they are Penn Staters yet. -jesse. @ BSD
by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on May 4, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with this is....the Bills have been a small ball offense since 2003 pretty much
you need a home run threat and you need to utilize it…….it’s a great equalizer….the quicker and more potent your offense is at scoring the more chances you’re gonna have to win each week….
Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009
by norcaliangelsfan on May 4, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why would they double cover both though? That’s just opening up the other receivers for the Bills. I think we’ll see one double teamed each play, but double teaming both seems a bit much, IMO. Then again, teams will have 8 in coverage again, so it could work for them….
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so you have us going deep into the playoffs?? w/ a total of 19 games being played between edwards and fitzpatrick
i like that optimism
by Shovel51 on May 4, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No, not at all. But Edwards will be knocked out of a game or two, so both will play, and I think Fitz will get a mop-up game or two….
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who knows if
Trent will get hurt….but if he does again, we are screwed
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
by MARVelous on May 4, 2009 1:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Funny thing
In my championship game for fantasy football I had to bench Fitz and Boldin because they werent going to see much playing time. I decided to get creative and start a few bills players agianst the broncos. Here was my starting lineup….. Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch,Fred jackson,Adrian Peterson,Steve Johnson, T.O, Bills defense, Rian Lindell. It was brilliant, I not only won, but claimed genious among my league players. Just thiought you guys might like to hear that
by carlvanetten on May 4, 2009 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You are the worst fantasy player ever...wanna join my league?
You starting offense had 6 Bills players on it…you got lucky carlvanetten. : )
by NorCal BillsFan on May 4, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
EASY
I was actually doing it as a joke and I won…It wasnt in my important league. I had 3 teams….my records were 12-1 10-3 11-2…I’ll be making a Buffalo Rumblings league on ESPN get the word around. in fact I’ll make a fan post.
by carlvanetten on May 4, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We take care of Rumblings fantasy, Carl. :)
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on May 4, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cool Beans..
Can I join?… BTW I love this site. its my homepage now, I am obsessed, I love that fans can express their opinions about there favorite teams and the writers respond!!!! its great.
by carlvanetten on May 4, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone can join. We’ll probably have details in the late June/early July area.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on May 4, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fantasy Football?
Gah? I thought we were an actual football site. :-)
I haven’t done fantasy in years but I appreciate it’s right to exist and why people like it. I may even have to join the rumblings league this year.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on May 4, 2009 2:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, thank you, Mr High and Mighty!
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha.
What happened to the defenses and kickers? :-)
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on May 4, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh well
I forgot Lindell. I was trying to look at the offensive skill players, so that’s why no Def/ST.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neither are draftable as starters anyways.
by kaisertown on May 4, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think Lee has a better season
I also think Trent puts up a tad more yards (i know you had him injured). Too many weapons not to crack 3000
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on May 4, 2009 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Might be a tad low on my yardage prediction since it only has him at 6.8 ypa. He was at 7.2 ypa last year, so he very well could go over 3000, and closer to 3500. That would be very, very nice.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That makes me smile....
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on May 4, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thats more like it!
I like your touchdown total for Trent. If I had to guess I would say 3,200 yards and 21 TDs. Thats a darn good option you could draft in the 7th round!
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on May 4, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like Jauron Once Said....
If we throw it 500 times we hope 350 get caught.
150 between Evans and T.O.
75 Between Roscoe and Reed
40 to our TE’s
85 to our backs
by NCbillsfan12 on May 4, 2009 2:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
but we'll take 200 being caught
right?
LOL.
Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009
by norcaliangelsfan on May 4, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you underestimate Trent
other than that, I was right there with you on most of your predictions
lee may have more yards…and T.O. may have more receptions….
by tiimbitz4786 on May 4, 2009 2:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
agree, agree, agree
I think all three things you say are correct. Basically K, I think you underestimate our passing game a bit. Not that we can blame you, after the last 5 years a sub 3,000 yard QB starts to seem normal! And your number 1 and 2 receivers with a total of 6 TDs sounds like an explosive year!
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on May 4, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually think I was a bit generous with his TD totals, but I think Evans and TO will compliment each other well and give Edwards a lot of chances to increase his TD numbers.
I don’t see how I am underestimating our passing game when it’s been bad for a long time, we have a productive trio of RB’s and have heard about running the ball more this year. I just can’t see Jauron allowing Schonert to get pass happy, nor do I think Trent is good enough to put up top QB stats. We’ll have to see and I hope I’m wrong on him. If he does get up to 3500 yards, after staying healthy, and has around 20 TD’s, I will be more than happy and a little surprised.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just dont see the Bills being able to get away with not being a bit pass happy after adding Terrell Owens and Shawn Nelson and with Marshawn Lynch out for the first 2 to 3 games. Trent is expected to make a jump, too. If the Bills dont pass more Schonert will get grilled and if Trent doesn’t post at least 3,000 yards and near or at 20 TDs he is going to get grilled. TO is going to demand the ball and at some point, with all the close games we play, Turk and DJ have to start putting the game in Trent Edards hands, and with TO and Lee Evans on the field, they should be putting the game in his hands earlier than usual. I just suspect that we will get a bit pass happy, nothing over the top, but you just can’t, no matter what your strategy may be, not throw the ball with the passing talent we have, its going to happen.
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on May 4, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But can we get away with being pass happy with Langston Walker at LT and a couple of interior rookies that need time to refine their pass blocking techniques?
What we do need to do is get the ball downfield more. Dumpoffs to the RB’s aren’t going to do much to help this offense again this year.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that is the major question
the tackle position, and its still one of the reasons I’m not sold on the Jairus Byrd pick. I still don’t get the decision, bordering on irresponsible considering we have a young injury prone cornerstone QB in there, to take a safety when we are so close to a complete picture on offense.
Here’s the other thing though, K. Sure we can question our ability to pass with Walker at LT but the fact is we couldn’t run the ball last year because we couldn’t run block. Hangartner is an upgrade no doubt, but how good can our running backs rush behind not one but two rookie guards is a HUGE question mark as well. The O-line is going to be a question mark regardless in either the pass or run game.
If Trent can’t break 3,000 I fear what our record will look like, especially if we run no huddle. No huddle offenses aren’t exactly the greatest clock management approach in the game, so if thats what we are going to do, and with rookie run blockers, I think we are going to live and die in the air. Marshawn is great but if its 2 and 7 on a major possession in the 3rd quarter, pushing inside the Miami 37 I just don’t see how DJ or Turk can, in the end, not call a play with Edwards dropping back looking for Lee or TO as his two primary checks.
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on May 4, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I kind of disagree
We weren’t a top running team, but we were able to run it pretty well for most of the season, particularly in the second half of the year if I recall correctly.
We were 14th in rushing yards per game, 14th in yards per attempt and 11th in rushing TD’s. And that was done with that waste of a LG Dockery and one of the worst C situations in the league.
Over the final 7 games of the season, we rushed from 1032 yards or 147 per game on 212 carries, 4.9 ypa. That’s pretty darn good if you ask me. Of course, in 3 of those games we didn’t score a TD, but in the other 4 we scored at least 27 points each time. So I’m not sure what this means other than we were able to move the ball quite well on the ground.
I do agree that regardless of running or passing, the OL will be a question mark for most of the year. Hopefully, it’ll be very good by the end of the year, but we could see struggles early on. I think that we will rely more on the run early because of it, which is probably going to be easier for the rookies initially.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that we will rely more on the run early because of it, which is probably going to be easier for the rookies initially.
Honestly, I really hope we come out passing early in the year, get teams to fear our passing game, and thus give us running room by mid-season when weather becomes a factor in the passing game (and so far in Trent’s career weather has been a huge factor for the young QB)
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on May 4, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m right in between both of you guys. I want Buffalo to come out running the ball and calling a variety of deep routes when they don’t. Trent can still check down if nothing is there and stick with the ball control style of offense, but this team needs to take more shots early in games. It will be tough to balance an offense that could make some huge plays with TO and Evans and an offensive line that might need to establish itself with the run to be above average.
by kaisertown on May 4, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you hit the nail on the head
It will be tough to balance an offense that could make some huge plays with TO and Evans and an offensive line that might need to establish itself with the run to be above average.
Thats a great synopsis of the situation on offense, kaiser. Turk Schonert has an opportunity to make a name for himself this season, I hope he realizes that. He’s got a situation where one could argue that the skill players at his disposal are probably the best in the league, hes got a budding young QB, and a young but questionable offensive line. This offense has really got boom or bust written all over it. If he can make it boom people will know the name Turk Schonert.
Its partially because of that that I dont know how he will be able to resist giving the ball to TO and Evans as much as possible.
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on May 4, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
K – i put an article out in a fanshot – billszone
He talks about how Kugler changed up the line calls:
Midway through the season, with the Bills struggling to be effective in the running game, Kugler was reported to have made some additional changes, this time to the blocking schemes. It was after those changes were made that the Bills’ running game started to become more effective.
hopefully with our new and improved interior we’ll see more improvement!
The rest of you go get the goods on Stan. His mom grounded him once for setting something on fire. Let's find out what that something was and then lie and say it was a puppy.
by J2 on May 4, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well there we go
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just wondering, but why do you feel I underestimate him? I haven’t liked a ton of what I’ve seen out of his play, nor do I think he’s consistent enough to put up big numbers. Why do you think he can?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
THe thing i like about trent is..
When he gets in a groove, hes spectacular to see, but that first time he gets his bell rung/ throws an int at the beggining of the game, it starts to go downhill from there. I think us as fans should write him a long letter telling him what fans think/gives him confidense. Such as:
Dear Trent,
We know your going to screw up from time to time, but dont let it discourage you, us as fans are still behind you no matter what!
Love,
Fans
by NCbillsfan12 on May 4, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well...that will change soon
i wasn’t here last year…move over K…
by tiimbitz4786 on May 4, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
uh oh
better hope you end up in my Rumblings league then! We had 3 last year, and will probably have at least 5 this year.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so how are you the overall champ then?
how does that work?
idea:
league winners do a playoff fantasy league to settle it, drafting players from teams who are making the playoffs…?
by tiimbitz4786 on May 4, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There really isn’t any way to do that.
But I won the 1 league in 2007 and the “expert” league last year, so I can claim my titles!
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sure there is...
take the league winners…let’s say there are 4 of them
have a 4 team draft picking a roster of playoff players
it’s interesting b/c you are considering not only who is the best fantasy player, but who’s team is likely to advance
winner is the one with the most points after the superbowl…
and is the ultimate fantasy champ
by tiimbitz4786 on May 4, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That does nothing to prove anything other than who was better for playoff football. What about the rosters that were assembled throughout the year? That’s where the championships are won. You just can’t find a good way to integrate multiple leagues into one to find the ultimate champ.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you don't get to even play in the playoff league tho
if you can’t win the regular season…i like the idea…
it’s cool if you don’t
at the very least we should do a playoff league too…if we aren’t integrating it with the regular season leagues
by tiimbitz4786 on May 4, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Move over
Move over Kurupt lol. jk. Im pretty good though. do you guys play auction or draft/keepers? and just thowin this out there….I won the buffalo rumbling predict the pick, just sayin
by carlvanetten on May 4, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Draft, no keepers.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
These stat predictions are so hard,
eswpecially for team like the bills….good job though, even if I don’t agree fully…but based on the past, how could you expect anymore from certain players….yet someone’s gotta have a breakout one of these seasons right?
I think with these offensive stats we are still no better than 20th in the league overall
The Bills CAN win every game
by killascript on May 4, 2009 4:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually
roughly 3600 yards passing and 2000 yards rushing would put us squarely in the top 10. We’d be on the cusp of the top 10 in both rushing and passing too. That’s why I think my stats are a bit generous. I can’t see us doing that well offensively.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
I uderstand, but to add up to that, you spread the stats around pretty generously….so that would be nice if your prediction came true
The Bills CAN win every game
by killascript on May 4, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m honestly not that big on fantasy leagues, but this is still a good read, especially if I decide to join th Rumbling’s league.
by CanadianBillsFan on May 4, 2009 6:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Evans makes more catches and probably more yards than Owens this year, regardless of ego. I have them both around 85 catches for 1,000 yards.
Do you really think Derek Fine will get more chances than Shawn Nelson to catch the ball? Based on talent and training camp yet to come, that conclusion seems dubious at best to me.
by Dyl on May 4, 2009 9:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If Evans were to catch 85 passes for 1,000 yards, it would be several yards per catch less than his career low. Evans is a deep threat who excels at routes where he can run in a straight line for 15 yards before his first break. I think he will always be a 15+ yards per catch player and if he ever catches 85 passes in a season it will be due to a Pro Bowl season that pushes him towards becoming one of the elite players at the position.
There were only 9 WRs who caught 85 passes last year. Only three of them averaged 13 yards per catch (Andre Johnson, Roddy White and Larry Fitzgerald). Evans averages exactly 16 yards per catch and has never averaged fewer than 15.4. I can’t imagine both Evans and TO catching 85 passes without Edwards making the Pro Bowl and the Bills winning 12+ games.
by kaisertown on May 4, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was just an estimate. 70 catches for 1,000 yards if that makes you feel better.
But I do have them each for that many yards. They’re both star talents.
Evans can very easily make shorter catches than his career average this year – he’s never been on a team with another real deep threat. And though he excels at long patterns, it’s not the only route he knows how to run. You can’t be a No. 1 receiver in this league, much less one of Evans’ standing, only knowing how to go get deep balls and catching some other stuff occasionally.
by Dyl on May 5, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That actually does make me feel better. I agree that they can both go over 1,000 yards. They might each need a big game in the process or a healthy Trent to do so, but a combined 2,000 yards actually seems likely.
by kaisertown on May 5, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you really think Derek Fine will get more chances than Shawn Nelson to catch the ball? Based on talent and training camp yet to come, that conclusion seems dubious at best to me.
Yes, but why would it be so surprising? Fine will be our starter and it remains to be seen how long it takes Nelson to get comfortable. It wouldn’t surprise me if he doesn’t have a major impact until mid-season. But he does have the receiving ability and athleticism that Fine doesn’t have, so once he gets comfortable, he could very well outpace him quite easily. I just think it takes a little while…
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on May 4, 2009 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess we'll just have to wait and see
could go either way
by Dyl on May 5, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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