The Curious Case of Donte Whitner and Bills safeties
I have been blogging here at Buffalo Rumblings for well over two years now. We've had a lot of ups and downs in our 26-month run, and we've had some wildly popular stories as well as some dreary ones. Perhaps our most well-known feature here in our brief history was our January 31, 2009 story on Buffalo Bills safety Donte Whitner.
The premise of that article was a simple one: take a look at every safety drafted in the first round over the past decade, measure each player's impact as tangibly as possible, and see how Buffalo's No. 8 overall pick in the 2006 NFL Draft measured up. The results? Well, not good. In terms of "big plays" - a term we used loosely to cover statistical categories such as interceptions, forced and recovered fumbles, safeties, sacks, defended passes and touchdowns - Whitner ranked fourteenth of the sixteen first-round safeties drafted since 1999.
I still believe to this day that nothing in that little analysis we put together falls under the "unfair" category. Numbers are numbers. We have referred to Whitner as a franchise cornerstone and Buffalo's most valuable defensive back in the past, too. If those, too, are unfair, then Buffalo's secondary - along with our nascent reputation - is in serious trouble.
Yet our little analysis seeped into the mainstream just enough that Whitner's lack of big plays - which we freely admit has been hampered by his circumstances with the team - became a huge talking point early this off-season. Now, the topic of Whitner has resurfaced - and, naturally, we feel it's important to address it as it comes up.
Whitner ready to be safety in numbers - BuffaloBills.com
We are in no way sure if the following excerpt from venerable Bills journalist Chris Brown was aimed at us - and we'll likely never know for sure. But it sure seems to pertain directly to us, and even if that was not the intent, we'll roll with it, considering the relevance to our previous discussions. It's June, and training camp doesn't start for another 40 days. Something has to pass the time. (Emphasis is ours.)
Whether it was strong safety, cornerback, nickel corner or free safety, Whitner was everywhere. And while there’s no debating how much Buffalo’s coaching staff values the ultra-versatile safety, there are outside observers that believe a top 10 pick should have more big plays than Whitner has had over his first three NFL seasons.
Even if Brown wasn't pointing directly at us... well, that still describes us pretty snugly.
What the outside observers fail to realize is in Buffalo’s defensive scheme Whitner has played strong safety more than any other position in the defensive backfield. As the role of that position is drawn up, opportunities to make plays on the ball are extremely limited.
Noted. This is precisely why we have written that Whitner should play free safety on a permanent basis for the better part of two years. The fact that Whitner has been forced into playing nickel coverage duties thanks to an abundance of injuries at cornerback has certainly hampered his ability to make more game-changing plays, as well, if only because he can't settle in at one position. (Though we will also point out that the sack, forced fumble and two defended passes that Ashton Youboty put up in just five games' worth of nickel duty in 2008 equals a third of Whitner's career production at several positions.)
Encouragingly, however, word surfaced - from Whitner himself - that the fourth-year pro would be making a full-time switch to free safety for the 2009 season. That was before the Bills used a second-round pick on Oregon DB Jairus Byrd, a player the Bills are expected to move to - you guessed it - free safety. Where does that leave Whitner? From Brown's article...
"Whatever they ask me to do I do to the best of my ability," Whitner said. "We’ll see. I’m going into my fourth year and will get the opportunity to play free safety. But I probably won’t even stay at free safety because they drafted Jairus Byrd. They want him to play some free safety. Coach Fewell likes me at both, but they like him at free so we’ll see. Hopefully I’ll get the opportunity to play there and get the job done."
Byrd, who snagged 17 interceptions in three years as a starting cornerback for the Ducks, is viewed as a more natural ballhawk than Whitner. Even though he has missed all of Buffalo's veteran OTAs and the mandatory mini-camp thanks to a late exam schedule, Byrd is expected to get every opportunity to nail down a starting job as quickly as he can. Keep in mind that as an Ohio State alum, Whitner, too, missed Buffalo's off-season activities in 2006. He was a full-time starter at strong safety by Week 2 of his rookie season.
Clearly, Byrd nailing down a starting job is far from a lock. The only safety assured of starting on opening day, barring injury, is Whitner - and let us be perfectly clear here. Whitner is a huge asset to the Bills simply because he can capably don several different hats. That's invaluable for a young defense, especially since the versatility is coming from a young player. (Though he is entering his fourth NFL season, Whitner will not turn 24 until the eve of this year's open of training camp.) Whitner will be starting for Buffalo, but it's uncertain at this point whether he'll be playing free safety next to veteran strong safety Bryan Scott, or if he'll retain his strong safety position, allowing Byrd to slide in at free safety.
Two more things are certain. Whitner probably won't exclusively play one position. Due to that fact, it is difficult to hope for an increase in his "big play" production. If his moving around positionally, and not playing the one spot that would put him in position to have a bigger impact (free safety) on a permanent basis has hampered him, little will change. Perhaps that's what Buffalo wants; perhaps they're happy with Whitner as he is and for what he currently offers the defense. That's fine - we're excited to see what happens whether he's playing free safety (next to Scott), or strong safety next to the promising rookie. But that doesn't mean we can't poll our little community about the safety position, either.
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Comments
My vote goes other...
Because I want to see a three headed monster. I want Scott in there against strong TEs and great rushing teams. I want Byrd in there against passing teams or in passing situations. I want Whitner in over Byrd and Scott. So essentially to me it boils down to the opponent. Against run-first teams I wants Whitner and Scott until Byrd can show me something there. Against pass-first teams or in 3rd and long I want Byrd and Whitner in there unless we’re playing the Bucs, Cowboys, Chargers, etc. who have a truly capale TE that Scott can cover.
More and more positions are becoming specialized… why can’t our safety rotation be the same?
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 15, 2009 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Exactly my thoughts, MRW.
If the glove don’t fit, it couldn’t be Whit...
by thatguy34 on Jun 15, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought the 3 headed monster was our RB's
"Hold ya chin up...nuh nuh nuh...gone"
-Marshawn Lynch-
by billsoferie on Jun 15, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, that’s exactly what I was thinking, too. Maybe the Other category should be renamed to “Both (depending on situation)”.
by Krenn on Jun 15, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well said
I agree with the idea big time. How does that affect our 53 man roster?
Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
by keysh67 on Jun 16, 2009 2:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It won't.
All three will make the team anyways.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 16, 2009 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it’s basically the same thing the team did last year. It will just be Byrd instead of Simpson and ideally, Byrd will see the field a touch more than Simpson did and play a whole lot better.
by kaisertown on Jun 16, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scapegoat
Just to reiterate a point not mentioned directly in this article: Whitner’s No. 8 overall draft position is the Bills’ responsibility. Some of the outside observers also believe he was a stretch. Would we expect more out of Donte if he had slipped to the 4th round? We shouldn’t force greatness on a slightly-above-average player drafted out of order. It’s not the most elegant or precise analogy, but ‘you can’t polish a turd.’
(Personal note to Donte: I am not saying you are not a turd. This is in your defense.)
Sweet home Orchard Park.
by the Uncommon Denominator on Jun 15, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
haha, I think what you meant is, “I am not saying you are a turd.”
"I know I'm a true receiver..." Roscoe Parrish, Buffalo Bills - May 2009
"In my heart, I know I'm funny." Lt Steven Hauk, Good Morning Vietnam - 1987
by thefourwinds on Jun 15, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah…those pesky double negatives
Sweet home Orchard Park.
by the Uncommon Denominator on Jun 15, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually....
…you can polish a turd…as proved on mythbusters:
http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbusters-polishing-a-turd.html
There is hope for you yet Donte!!!!
by Buffalo Mo on Jun 15, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep. I think the saying is supposed to go, “you can polish a turd, but it’s still a turd.”
"I know I'm a true receiver..." Roscoe Parrish, Buffalo Bills - May 2009
"In my heart, I know I'm funny." Lt Steven Hauk, Good Morning Vietnam - 1987
by thefourwinds on Jun 15, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, it wasn’t a stretch to take him in the first round. And any team should hope for better than ‘slightly above average’.
I can’t imagine that the Bills feel that they’re getting what they thought out of Whitner when they drafted him.
by Pistol on Jun 15, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I voted Byrd FS and Whitner SS
This all hinges on byrd though, whitner should be at SS it better suites him.
"Hold ya chin up...nuh nuh nuh...gone"
-Marshawn Lynch-
by billsoferie on Jun 15, 2009 2:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The team is doing him no favors
by not letting him develop at one position. I think we’d see a good bit more production-wise from him if he was the full-time FS. To me, drafting Byrd speaks to the staff’s urgency: they feel his ability to pick off passes (oh how that will changed with NFL-calibre systems and QBs) will help them win now, moreso than they’ve seen all of last year.
If you draft a kid at 8, you should damn well make him a priority of yours in development. Do any of us truly feel this has been shown to Whitner?
"It's not delivery, it's DiGiorgio!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Jun 15, 2009 2:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Do any of us truly feel this has been shown to Whitner?
He was a defensive captain. That translates to coaches having him in a great place to develop. I believe the players vote on the captains, and if the coaches didn’t make it clear that Donte was the man, he wouldn’t be a captain.
I do agree on the point that he needs to be able to excel at ONE position.
Sweet home Orchard Park.
by the Uncommon Denominator on Jun 15, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
He has started almost since day 1. He is always on the field. He has been given every chance to make plays.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 15, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think drafting Byrd
sort of shows that the front office tends to agree with outside observers like Brian that Whitner isn’t doing enough on big plays.
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on Jun 16, 2009 2:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
If they were confident Whitner could produce big plays at FS, they’d have moved him there and stuck w/Scott or picked up a SS….
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jun 16, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everyone wants Byrd to start without even seeing him play a pro down.
Why does that seem strange to only me?
"It's not delivery, it's DiGiorgio!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Jun 15, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
well his ball hawking in college is one – but here’s a few.
We’ve started two rookies there before – Whitner will help him get lined up and in position. Our scheme really isn’t that difficult from a defensive standpoint that they would be lost like a NE defense.
Your 100% correct that it is strange – however, early 2nd round pick – very good college production – played rookies before etc…
i’m with you – i’d like to see the kid play a little – might look like John Beck out there
Everyone has a photographic memory… some just don’t have film
by J2 on Jun 15, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Count me in
Not only is Byrd a rookie who will need time to learn the defense and get used to the speed of the NFL, but if I remember correctly, he is also transitioning from CB to DB. While Matt’s plan would be the best case scenario, can we really expect a kid who as not even been allowed to report for OTA’s to get up to speed before mid season.
"I’m not sure how anyone can expect Buffalo to make the playoffs without blind offseason induced homeristic optimism being the majority of their reasoning." - kaisertown
by Joe P. on Jun 15, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As Brian said...
Whitner wasn’t at minicamp his rookie year and was starting by week 2. Byrd can contribute right away.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 15, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure he can contribute, but start? And the comparison to Whitner is not the same situaiton
Whitner was drafted #8 and expected to start right away…..we didn’t really have a choice. Whitner was drafted as a DB to play DB, not to be converted from CB to DB. Byrd was drafted with the 42nd pick and we have proven vets who should be able to beat out a rookie, especially in the first half of the season.
"I’m not sure how anyone can expect Buffalo to make the playoffs without blind offseason induced homeristic optimism being the majority of their reasoning." - kaisertown
by Joe P. on Jun 15, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Proven vet in Bryan Scott...
but not so supremely talented that it’s a no-brainer.
A high second round pick has started in Buffalo (Poz). Plus we are expecting a lower second rounder to start in Levitre.
I get what you’re saying about the switch but I expect it to be easier for Byrd at safety. The responsibilities are different but it’s easier to move away from the ball than it is to move to a position closer to it.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 15, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree and again I am not ruling it out
but I would have to say that Poz was in a similar situation as Whitner, with little competition in front of him. I was about to say that I would not expect Levitre to start on day one because of Chambers and McKinney. Then I checked http://www.buffalobills.com/team/depth-chart-list.html . I was shocked to see it already has Levitre listed as the starting LG. It also lists Youboty and Simpson as starters. How much stock do we put in this?
"I’m not sure how anyone can expect Buffalo to make the playoffs without blind offseason induced homeristic optimism being the majority of their reasoning." - kaisertown
by Joe P. on Jun 15, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not much. If you also looked at the STs, it had Preston as a back up LS.
by krytime on Jun 15, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WOW!!!! I didn't see that
How sad is that! Hey BB.com …… update your *@#$ing site!
"I’m not sure how anyone can expect Buffalo to make the playoffs without blind offseason induced homeristic optimism being the majority of their reasoning." - kaisertown
by Joe P. on Jun 15, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It also still has blake on the team
Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
by keysh67 on Jun 16, 2009 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We are desperate for some big plays, even a big play, out of the safety position.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jun 16, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With apologies to Jairus Byrd
I think the team would be better off starting the season with Whitner at FS and Scott at SS. While starting a rookie at the safety position has been done (2006 Bills), this is a position where experience can mean the difference between stopping a team on third down or giving up a touchdown on a play-action pass.
Byrd may earn a starting job by the middle or end of the season. But with Tom Brady and the Wildcat in the same division, give the kid a chance to learn a little from the sidelines before throwing him on the field.
Get the Bills back to the big game!
by Blitz on Jun 15, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The “mildcat” isn’t anything to fear now. The stats are alarming at how well teams defended it after the first month of last year’s use.
"It's not delivery, it's DiGiorgio!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Jun 15, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm holding off judgement on how Buffalo handles the "mildcat" for now
I guess we’ll see when Buffalo plays Miami with Pat White on their roster…
Get the Bills back to the big game!
by Blitz on Jun 15, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but Whitner is a better SS than FS
"Hold ya chin up...nuh nuh nuh...gone"
-Marshawn Lynch-
by billsoferie on Jun 15, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How can you possibly know that if he’s never played free safety for an extended period of time?
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 15, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By evaluating what he is better at when he does play. This whole conversation is about is lack of the big play (I’m not taking into account whose fault it is). What he does not lack at is tackling ability.
IMO I think he is better at SS
"Hold ya chin up...nuh nuh nuh...gone"
-Marshawn Lynch-
by billsoferie on Jun 15, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whitner has definitely gotten too much flack from this site, but there aren’t any excuses for his non-existent production in the big play department. I think there are three major factors why he hasn’t been able to make those game changing plays here, but I’m going to start by disputing Chris Brown’s claim that the defensive scheme has anything to do with it.
Jermaine Phillips had three INTs last year and has 9 over the last three seasons in addition to his 7 forced fumbles over the same time span. Kevin Payne (the starting SS for the Bears, he’s not exactly a household name) had 4 picks last season. If I had to pick a defense that from a scheme standpoint was the most similiar to Buffalo, it would be Chicago. Even rookie Craig Steltz had an INT last season for the Bears. I don’t know how Indy sets up their safeties, but the trio of Sanders, Bethea and Bullitt had 7 INTs. And maybe most importantly, if Buffalo is running a defense that doesn’t put their safeties and a number 8 overall pick in position to make plays on the ball, then what the hell are they thinking?
So, the first reason why Whitner hasn’t made plays is the obvious one. This team gets zero pressure on the QB. I don’t think Bills fans are looking for Donte to be Polamalu or anything, but Whitner picks off a couple passes per season by doing nothing more than being opportunistic on a 40 sack defense. Ed Reed doesn’t pick off 9 passes without being in the middle of nowhere and having a few floaters fall into his lap.
Reason two is why we shouldn’t get too optimistic about Whitner ever being a big time player and that is just that he isn’t much of a playmaker. Whtiner is a tweener who is small for a SS and isn’t great in man to man coverage. He’s good in run support and I think he’s reliable in zone coverage, but he just isn’t a guy thats going to make you pay for challenging him in a deep zone. He’s a good player, but he’s never going to develop into that superstar player that fans expect from top 10 picks.
Reason three is the reason to get excited. Whitner is still only 23 years old. He turns 24 in a little over a month. He was only a two year starter in college and has played through a bunch of injuries and has been asked to do a lot here. I think Whitner will develop into more of a playmaker as he enters his prime and if Buffalo can improve that pass rush. I don’t think he’s ever going to be a 4 INT per season guy, but he should start making some plays.
by kaisertown on Jun 15, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
good post kaiser
In regards to your point about Phillips and Payne, I would like to see some sort of statistics to back that up that would show that teams passed and ran on us at about the same or similar ratios as Chicago and Tampa. From watching all the games since Whitners been around it feels like teams have been airing it out against us normally but then again those are the plays I probably remember the most vividly and I’m also watching games pretty buzzed (what can I say, during the season Mondays are killer for me). Is it possible Whitner could be defended if teams get up on us early and run more than they do against other teams. Life before Stroud at DT wasn’t exactly pretty for our interior run D, maybe teams just ran a disproportionate amount? Doubt it, so I think if we saw those numbers it would support your theory that Donte will never be a playmaker.
I agree with you that Whitner may never be a superstar but because, as you mentioned, hes only 23 years old, I don’t think its too far fetched to expect him to be a solid leader on the field who never really lets you down. A staple of the defense. Really, thats all we need Donte to be, thats all you really need most great safeties to be. It seems like the safety position recently has been over glorified whether it was the slobber fest with Bob Sanders when the Colts were hot, Polamalu during the Steelers being hot, or Harrison during the Pats run. Don’t get me wrong, those guys are great safeties, but I think those teams would have been almost as great with Donte back there as those guys. The only man in the league I consider a truly irreplaceable safety is Ed Reed. Sean Taylor would be there too if it wasn’t for tragedy. After that it goes Polamalu and then a bunch of guys who get the job done and then a bunch of guys who don’t. Whitner can get himself to the top of that list of guys who get the job done.
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on Jun 16, 2009 3:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I really think Whitner is solid. And I do think that with a better offense, teammates who can pressure the QB and some additional health and age that he will make some plays. He’s just never going to be a guy who causes 5 turnovers a season. And that’s fine. He has enough good qualities that he doesn’t need to be the big play guy.
by kaisertown on Jun 16, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see you looked at Tampa 2 SS’s as well, kais….and that’s exactly why Whitner has been so disappointing. Its not just the lack of some big plays, it’s the complete and utter lack of any big plays that is the problem.
Good reply…..wish I saw it a few minutes earlier!
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jun 16, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ngata
I remember watching the draft, hoping and praying the Bills would Ngata with the 8th pick. But no, another Bills blunder. Ngata is now a Pro Bowl Nose Tackle and would be a great fit next to Stroud, because he is pretty athletic for his size.
Whitner- Complete bust at that pick – Polamalu was taken 15th and is twice as good as Whitner. Maybe the Bills are obsessed with Ohio State defensive backs – Winfield, Clements, Youbouty, Whitner.
by BuffaloWhiner on Jun 15, 2009 4:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
plus with Ngata we could have switched between the 3-4 and 4-3 easier if need be
Everyone has a photographic memory… some just don’t have film
by J2 on Jun 15, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
System?
Does Whitner’s lack of big plays have anything to do with playing in Jauron’s/Fewell’s system? To me, it doesn’t seem like it’s a defense that really gambles or goes for big plays too often. Whitner’s proven himself to be a pretty solid tackler, so does DJ just prefer him to fill that role and be consistent with that?
by Dr. Brackish Okun on Jun 15, 2009 5:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This cannot be overstated
how much of an impact this has on Whitner’s stats. When your defensive coordinator calls Man Under, Cover 2, and Cover 3 like 200% of the time (which is almost the exact defense Pete Carroll calls in COLLEGE)… offenses know where the holes are. That’s why the only way our secondary can get picks is if the QB makes a terrible mistake or if they guess right and jump a route. Neither of those happen often with the talent level in the NFL. That’s why you have to be more creative as a DC when you’re getting a less-than-stellar pass rush… if an NFL QB isn’t forced into a mistake he’s not going to make one very often.
Teams that run good zone schemes, like Indy and the famed Bucs, have always had superb pressure on the QB with their front four. This is exactly why that statistical comparison of Whitner versus other safeties was a nonsensical argument: because the premise was nonsensical. Every situation for every 1st round safety is different; surrounded by different coaches, different players, playing in different schemes. Something as rigid as a statistical analysis to quantify performance cannot be used in support of, or against any one player…. particularly in such a broad sense. Why aren’t some of the huge tackles at the LOS on 3rd and 4th n’ short tabulated as big plays? I think if statistics could be rounded up of “missed – big play – opportunities,” then you could more accurately see if he’s coming up short. It appears to me that Whitner is doing just about everything he can on the field.
Here’s an example of statistics falling short. And I’ll use a position where statistics are more indicative of performance.
Warren Moon vs. Terry Bradshaw
Who’s better?
If you look at their stats, Warren Moon’s QB rating is 10 points higher over his career than Bradshaw’s, he threw 60 more TDs than INTs, and has over 49,000 yards, and completed more passes than Bradshaw even attempted. Terry Bradshaw threw just as many INTs as TDs, completed only 50% of his passes and threw for about half the yardage Moon did. If you were to look at those stats you would say Moon is a better QB. But Bradshaw has the 4 Super Bowl victories. Further complicating the analysis is that Moon played in drastically different offenses than Bradshaw… Moon attempted 10 more passes per game overall. There are too many variables and too much input required for this type of analysis to be legit.
With this provincial thought process, any 12 year old with a stack of football cards can flip them over and decide who the best safety in the league is. But it helps if you watch the games, and Whitner (unfortunately) does his job. It’s unfortunate that his job in our defense is simple in a better-safe-than-sorry style with a pathetically inconsistent pass rush.
"I don't agree with a damn thing you say, but I would die for your right to say it."
by ForeignArrow on Jun 15, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good post, but aren't you just making another excuse for Whitner?
Granted Whitner has to play within the system and does make his share of tackles, but he also consistently takes bad angles and shows poor tackling technique, which by the way, got him injured last season. Does that mean he is a terrible DB….. of course not. But playmakers make plays by jumping routes to make INTs, or by causing fumbles when they make all of those tackles. Whitner was drafted to be that playmaker and he has not lived up to his draft position.
"I’m not sure how anyone can expect Buffalo to make the playoffs without blind offseason induced homeristic optimism being the majority of their reasoning." - kaisertown
by Joe P. on Jun 15, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not about
making excuses for Whitner…. it’s about people citing stats as some authoritative end-all when they feel a certain way about a player, which is silly. All I set out to do was prove it’s a silly way to back-up certain arguments. That’s why Mr. Galliford’s article was so controversial in the first place: because the accusation doesn’t fit Whitner’s performance. He’s out there playing within the scheme making all the plays he can. It’s wrong to call him out when he has no control over how the staff uses him or implements their scheme. If that’s making excuses then I’ll make em all day.
And Whitner’s tackling technique is another tired argument. He’s a SS that weighs 207 lbs. If he used standard tackling technique he’d end up like Bob Sanders and miss literally 50% of the games in his pro career. Or maybe he could become a Youtube sensation like Laron Landry did against Brandon Jacobs, Landry of course going for the fundamental tackle: shoulders square, not too far off of your base, head across the body, aim for the core. With the amount of tackles he’s made, it’s a wonder he hasn’t missed more time. I think it’s a real credit to him that he makes so many tackles on ball carriers that usually have a solid 15-30 lbs on him. Whitner’s a smart guy that is very effective and he misses no more tackles than any other safeties do (I watch a lot of football).
And one more “excuse” for Whitner…. can anyone name a playmaker on this defense since the departure of Takeo Spikes? The most INTs logged by anyone in the secondary was 6 by Nate Clements back in 05’ before Jauron even showed up with his lame-azz scheme.
"I don't agree with a damn thing you say, but I would die for your right to say it."
by ForeignArrow on Jun 15, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that Whitner doesn’t miss more tackles than your average safety and might actually miss a few less. The argument I always use is that Marshawn and Freddie break how many tackles every game? It’s nothing but tunnel vision for a Bills fan to watch Marhawn slide through a defender every other carry and then criticize Whitner.
I couldn’t disagree more about the argument that Dick Jauron’s scheme and the players around Whitner prevent him from making plays. Obviously the pass rush, the scheme, the lack of a good safety to pair with Whitner, etc … are all factors. But it’s not like Whitner makes some plays and his draft status is leading people to still be dissapointed. Whitner’s production in big plays is completely non-existent. Do you really think that Whitner would match Jermaine Phillips’ production if he were playing in Tampa and not Buffalo? Tampa Bay had 29 sacks last season. Not exactly “superb pressure”. Jermaine Phillips also has 7 forced fumbles in the last three seasons which can’t be contributed to a pass rush. With an injured Tommie Harris, Chicago’s pass rush wasn’t the same last season. They only had 28 sacks, but Kevin freakin Payne still managed 4 INTs.
I don’t buy into the whole missed big plays – big plays thought process. Interceptions can also be created. Whitner is pretty bad in man coverage. How often is he a step behind a TE that he is covering? I couldn’t imagine Whitner ever jumping the route of a player he was covering to make an INT like a CB would. Forced fumbles are another way to make a play that Whitner just doesn’t do (only two of his 254 career tackles turned into a forced fumble). And while Whitner’s size is a factor it isn’t an excuse, especially considering that other small safeties force fumbles. Yeremiah Bell (6-0, 200 pounds) has 5 FFs in his last two seasons. Quinton Mikell (5-10, 206) had two last seaon. Hell, Chris Harris (6-0, 205) has 10 FFs over the last two seasons.
And where are all these tackles around the line of scrimmage that people are talking about? I’ll actually go through all the play by plays on NFL.com and chart how Whitner’s games went.
by kaisertown on Jun 15, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So I started charting out where Whitner makes his tackles and realized that it isn’t very fair to just use last year. He was pretty beat up at times and probably has more tackles around the LOS in his first and second year. And no way am I going through three years woth of games so I just skimmed a ton of NFL.com’s play by plays to look for Whitner stuff and here is what I found / am guessing:
I’d say Whitner makes 40% or fewer of his tackles in run support. At first that surprised me, but after some thought, it sounds about right for a safety in this defense. So of Whitner’s 66 tackles last year, I’m guessing that he only made 25 tackles or so on run plays. I knew he would have some tackles around the LOS, but I was surprised how many. I’d guess that almost half his tackles in run support stopped RBs before they picked up 5 yards and he had a bunch of tackles for a gain of just a yard or so. His zero tackles in the backfield was definitely an anomally. He also makes a lot of tackles way downfield, but I think that’s just the nature of the position.
In pass coverage, Whitner made a lot of tackles on RBs for very short gains. More than I expected. He also made a lot of tackles on TEs for 10+ yard pickups. I really think Whitner isn’t good in man coverage and I just can’t figure out why someone with his athleticism is always a step behind players who are 40+ pounds bigger. He doesn’t make many tackles on WRs which is probably a good thing considering that when he does make a tackle on a WR it’s almost never 20+ yards downfield.
by kaisertown on Jun 16, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again...
you just proved the point I was making…. which is not that Donte Whitner is the best safety in the whole world. But you’re using statistics as evidence that can’t support your argument. Like sack totals: they can usually tell you about how good a team’s pass rush is, but they can’t tell you how consistent the pressure is, or which INTs were caused by pressure. Most INTs in man coverage aren’t because of superb coverage skills… but because the defense forced a bad throw or disrupted the timing of the play… 2 things the Bills defense is terrible at.
And forced fumbles is often a product of coaching. How often do you see Bills tacklers ripping at the ball when a guy is wrapped up. It’s something that seemingly every other team does in games, but our staff seems to feel getting the guy down is more important.
"I don't agree with a damn thing you say, but I would die for your right to say it."
by ForeignArrow on Jun 17, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, the cover 2 really doesn’t produce great numbers for strong safeties. While in it, John Lynch never had more than 4 TO’s forced in single season. Bob Sanders, even in his full seasons, only had 2 TO’s. I can’t even tell you who Chicago’s strong safety is, but my guess is he doesn’t rack up numbers either.
I’m not saying that Donte has no room for improvement. He certainly could take more chances, like most of the Bills. My problem is with how DJ (and obviously Perry) gameplans. I feel like he follows the “don’t screw up” mentality too often, and Whitner’s lack of playmaking opportunities is evidence of it. I think that mentality rewards safe plays, like wrapping up instead of trying to strip the ball, trying to hit the receiver hard instead of going for the pick, and having your safety play in coverage instead of blitzing him. Admittedly, I watch as a fan and don’t really ever look at film or anything like that. And my only personal experience with gameplanning is on Madden, so I might be missing something.
by Dr. Brackish Okun on Jun 16, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That the philosophy of the defense...
You call it “don’t screw up” but it’s really “limit big plays”. Nothing over the top. Keep everything in front of you. Bend but not break. The cover two is a very successful scheme in the NFL but because of team’s moving away from the west coast offense and to the spread it’s becoming outdated. It was originally designed to stop the short passing game and prevent the long over the top bombs.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 16, 2009 8:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, somewhat
I agree with you about the scheme. You say “limit big plays” and I say “don’t screw up,” but they basically mean the same thing from different perspectives. My point was that we can’t really get upset when our SS doesn’t force turnovers or get big sacks, when it’s not really his job. I understand that sometimes the opportunities to make plays will present themselves, regardless of the system, and hopefully Donte will take further advantage of those.
I agree that our defense has been effective in that it doesn’t really give up big plays, but, we don’t take too many gambles either. It’s unreasonable to expect him to have 5 INT, 4 FF, and 5 sacks until the coaching staff changes philosophy. I’m not saying Whitner is great, but it’s unreasonable to expect greatness when he’s not even been given opportunity to show it.
by Dr. Brackish Okun on Jun 16, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then why do players who play the same position on teams that run a very similiar defense make the plays that Whitner hasn’t? How did Kevin Payne have 4 INTs last year if the cover 2 defense didn’t give him the opportunity to do so?
It’s not Whitner’s fault that poorly thrown balls or deflected passes don’t just fall into his lap for easy INTs. But in this defense, the opportunity to force (a word you actually used) turnovers most definitely exists. And nobody is asking for Polamalu numbers like the ones you say are unreasonable to expect. But the simple fact is that Whitner’s production hasn’t been just OK. It’s hardly there at all. Two career INTs? Two career forced fumbles? He has two pass break ups in the last two seasons. Even Kalvin Pearson, Detroit’s starting safety in their cover 2, had 4 passes defended and three forced fumbles last season.
by kaisertown on Jun 16, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Whitner’s playing as well as he could. There is definitely tons of room to improve. He’s still young and hopefully with more experience he’ll be able to see his opportunities to make game-changing plays more clearly.
My point was to show that there were other factors to it that might indicate that he’s not the bust many are claiming him to be. He should definitely have more forced fumbles and more tackles behind the LOS. I just think his talent could be better utilized if our coaches were more willing to take chances.
by Dr. Brackish Okun on Jun 16, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s wrong to call him out when he has no control over how the staff uses him or implements their scheme.
Can the same be said about Trent Edwards? Because that would be nice.
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 16, 2009 8:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am generally not for calling players out at all....
the only time I broke down was with Chris Kelsay getting burned on 2 reverses/bootlegs per game.
And yea, Schonert has not been very consistent in the way he uses Trent… but it was Schonert’s first rodeo so we’ll see if he picks it up this year.
"I don't agree with a damn thing you say, but I would die for your right to say it."
by ForeignArrow on Jun 17, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You missed the entire point of the original article.
It wasn’t to prove or disprove anything. Brian was taking a look at the numbers and how they compare. He wasn’ t saying “Whitner sucks… look here’s the proof.”
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 16, 2009 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Playing in the exact same defense....
Ko Simpson, a fourth round draft pick in the same year Whitner was selected that missed his entire seoncd year, has the same number of INTs and more passes defended in his career than Whitner in ten less games. Yeah Whitner has about ten more tackles a year on average than Simpson but that makes sense because of the difference in SS and FS. You can succeed in this defense at making picks and other big plays, no matter how much you want to trash the system.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 16, 2009 8:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really Chris Brown?
Excuses on the football field are NOT AN OPTION. And in your article Chris Brown you mentioned Whitner moving around, being able to make less plays. REALLY?
Now you wouldn’t suppose they put Whitner in those positions to either make a play or atleast help out on the strong side? BS. Whitner isn’t a playmaker and he is been in the league for 3 FREAKIN years!
Dissapointing- Yes
Stressful- Yes
BUST – YES
The time to deliver is now and if you fail to do so you will no doubt witness the consequences first hand.
by Cutter3636 on Jun 15, 2009 6:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's not a bust.
He’s still looked at by a lot of coaches and evaluators as a solid safety. It’s not like he’s in danger of getting cut or replaced. He is the only legit starter at safety and one of only two for sure started in the secondary with McGee.
Disappointing, sure. Bust, no.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 15, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The one specific part I agree with Cutter3636 about is that last offseason, Whitner said he was excited about moving around in the defense a lot so it would help him be able to make more plays.
"I know I'm a true receiver..." Roscoe Parrish, Buffalo Bills - May 2009
"In my heart, I know I'm funny." Lt Steven Hauk, Good Morning Vietnam - 1987
by thefourwinds on Jun 15, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, my point is that now that’s all of a sudden an excuse why he hasn’t made more plays?
"I know I'm a true receiver..." Roscoe Parrish, Buffalo Bills - May 2009
"In my heart, I know I'm funny." Lt Steven Hauk, Good Morning Vietnam - 1987
by thefourwinds on Jun 15, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you disagree with me - tell me the last time you remember Whitner making an interception, forced fumble or big hit??
probably a long time ago – right? Not very good for a top 10 draft pick. Not like a Bob Sanders or Ed Reed. Wait- when were they drafted? The summation here = BUST
The time to deliver is now and if you fail to do so you will no doubt witness the consequences first hand.
by Cutter3636 on Jun 15, 2009 6:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, you’re entitled to your opinion, but our original article was NOT intended to label Whitner a bust.
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 15, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tell me the last time
he dropped an INT or missed a clutch tackle…
"I don't agree with a damn thing you say, but I would die for your right to say it."
by ForeignArrow on Jun 15, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he got run over by Sammy Morris in the Pats game
"I’m not sure how anyone can expect Buffalo to make the playoffs without blind offseason induced homeristic optimism being the majority of their reasoning." - kaisertown
by Joe P. on Jun 15, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow, a power back decking a smallish saftey that’s got significantly fewer pounds on his frame than morris does – once in a game. surprising!
by the_prophet on Jun 16, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am not saying it happens all the time or Whitner never makes a good hit,
but he asked
Tell me the last time
he dropped an INT or missed a clutch tackle…
so I told him.
"I’m not sure how anyone can expect Buffalo to make the playoffs without blind offseason induced homeristic optimism being the majority of their reasoning." - kaisertown
by Joe P. on Jun 16, 2009 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hes also rocked some guys to be fair Joe
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on Jun 16, 2009 3:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
meaning Donte that is, not Sammy Morris
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on Jun 16, 2009 3:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
like who?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jun 16, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
like on Guitar hero...
he rocked out on those guys!
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 16, 2009 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
true Brian - but I have
The time to deliver is now and if you fail to do so you will no doubt witness the consequences first hand.
by Cutter3636 on Jun 15, 2009 8:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The day Donte starts making four interceptions or more is the day Earth melts due to global warming, in other words never. It’s great that he’s a solid tackler and a great leader, but why the **** spend a top ten pick on somebody, we could have had in later rounds? Whitner has – like it or not – been a vast disappointment to this point, and anyone who says opposite is fooling themselves. The guy has mad a pathetic two interceptions in his first three seasons and 1 sack. My expectation would be at least 6 or 7 picks.
by BillsfanfromDenmark on Jun 16, 2009 5:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Whitner would have been gone by the time the Bills picked again.
How far do you think he would have fallen?
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 16, 2009 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AMEN brother - it is very sad
The time to deliver is now and if you fail to do so you will no doubt witness the consequences first hand.
by Cutter3636 on Jun 16, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Go Brian!
This piece is on ESPN’s website, too. You the man Brian. I’m happy you’re getting exposure and recognition. You deserve it man. (All the editors, authors, and moderators get a big pat on the back, too.)
It's just a game.
by jj24 on Jun 16, 2009 5:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What a bunch of crap
from Chris Brown
What the outside observers fail to realize is in Buffalo’s defensive scheme Whitner has played strong safety more than any other position in the defensive backfield. As the role of that position is drawn up, opportunities to make plays on the ball are extremely limited.
Why can mediocre players like Jermaine Phillips and Kevin Payne make plays in a very similar scheme with a similarly crappy pass rush? I’ve looked at this before with those guys, even the Colts safeties too. Melvin Bullitt, who I think was their SS when Sanders was hurt, had 4 INT’s last year too. There’s no excuse for making NO plays. Nobody is asking him to lead the NFL in INT’s or force 10 fumbles, but it would be nice if he could get a few here and there…
That’s what ticks me off about this whole Whitner thing, seeing something like this from Brown or when the Whitner supporters get all bent out of shape when someone says Whitner needs to make some plays. There’s always some excuse…the scheme, him bouncing around positions, etc, but it’s never that Donte just isn’t a playmaker in any way. The ‘big play’ numbers he’s put up aren’t just bad, they are pathetic. We don’t want a ton of big plays (well we do), we just want SOME. When there’s always some retort about it being something other than the player’s fault, I tend to believe it’s the player’s fault. Even crappier players on crappier teams are able to get there hands on some balls (!) from time to time.
Personally, I think Bryan Scott is a better SS. I think he’s a better tackler and much better at handling TE’s in coverage. Whitner is the better jack of all trades safety, but I just believe Scott has proven more capable at SS. Will that continue? Who knows. Should he start over Whinter at SS? Maybe, maybe not, but I am currently more comfortable with Scott playing SS than Whitner. I’m sure I’m not alone.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jun 16, 2009 8:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Is your solution then...
Byrd at FS and Scott at SS with Whitner as the primary backup? Or wait and see on Byrd?
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 16, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s wait and see on Byrd, but I just think Scott is the better SS regardless of who would play FS…
It probably will be Whitner at FS and Scott at SS to start…once Byrd’s ready (hoping he will be someday), it’ll be interesting to see what happens at SS. Well it won’t be because i doubt the coaches put Whitner on the bench, but I would definitely be leaning that way.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jun 16, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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