What leads me to think that TO will leave some dissapointed is the way that Bills fans seem to think that TO was easily the best WR to change teams which I just don’t believe. Brian’s article about the best addition of the offseason left me a little shocked. How anyone can think that TO adds more to Buffalo than Haynesworth does to Washington or Cutler to Chicago is mind boggling. And how not a single person mentioned TJ Houshmandzadeh, even in passing confuses me too. I’d bet that if we put a poll up on rumblings asking who the better WR was, TO or Housh, you’d see more than 95% of our readers vote TO, but if you put the very same poll up on the Seahawks blog, you would get the exact opposite results with maybe 5% voting for TO. I know this site isn’t just a bunch of homers, so I’m just going to assume that the offseason is the time where dreams run wild, but the simple truth is that TO does drop some passes which I don’t think Bills fans are all that ready for and he isn’t the HOF type WR that he was a few years ago. He should be a very productive WR this year, but for him and Evans to both catch 10 TDs, they would both have to be in the top 10 in the league from a statistical perspective and they just aren’t that good.

I also disagree with some of your logic. For starters, who cares how often some of the other teams with two receiving threats throw? I’m not sure that’s particularly relevant. Some of those teams throw that much because they have elite QBs (which Buffalo doesn’t) or bad running attacks (which Buffalo doesn’t) or defenses which give up a ton of points (again, Buffalo doesn’t). And teams like San Diego, Pittsburgh and New England have multiple receiving threats and had pretty balanced attacks.

I think pass to run ratio is as much about coaching philosophy as anything. And one factor that could lead to Buffalo remaining a run heavy team is the offensive line. With Langston Walker at LT and a pair of rookies at guard, Buffalo would be smart to run early and often and let the OL get after the DL instead of vice versa. Buffalo also plays in one of the couple windiest stadiums in the league.

For me this argument comes down to whether or not Lee Evans can catch 10 TDs and I just don’t see how he can. You mention that he had 16 TDs in 2004-2005 and he actually scored 8 more in 2006. But Buffalo also only averaged 10 rushing TDs per year during that span. They scored 16 via the ground last year. And maybe more importantly Evans had QBs with big arms and a desire to throw the deep ball. Trent just doesn’t take that many shots down the field.

Finally, Owens presence in the red zone should increase Lee Evans production there.

I don’t believe that at all. I think the opposite is true. Buffalo has used Evans in the red zone out of necessity and not because he is particularly good there. Evans is short and runs his best routes when he has space and the ability to use his straight line speed. I just can’t imagine Evans suddenly being productive, or even all that involved in the game plan inside the 10 or 15 yard line. So what would a breakdown of Evans’ TDs look like? How many TDs is he going to score inside the red zone? How many on deep balls? Can he really break a slant route or score by beating defenders after the catch?

with TO that much of a threat inside the 20, Evans should see a whole lot of space

That’s the problem with WRs like Evans in the red zone. There isn’t any space. When a team can cram all 11 defenders within 15 yards of the LOS because that is where the field ends, there isn’t any space that one player can create for another.

Another factor is Edwards’ health. Does Evans even have a shot at 10 TDs if Edwards misses 2-3 games?

And how many TDs is this team going to throw? We threw 14 last year. If we assume that TO and Evans won’t be the only players to catch some, that means the Bills would have to throw at least 25 for Evans and TO to each catch 10. That’s something that only 7 teams did last year.

for T.O. and Evans to have 1,000 yard seasons the O-line (possibly consisting of two rookies) must gel quickly, Edwards must stay health for 16 games, and Edwards, Evans, and T.O. must have a monster year. What are the odds of all that happening? You would get better odds in Vegas my friend.

For both to exceed 1000 yards, we pretty much have to be a high octane offense where Trent throws the ball upwards of 500 times. You talked about that some, but without looking it up right now, I’d have to imagine that teams who have two 1000 yards receivers in the same season are the teams who are pass heavy with 500+ attempts a year. Not only do we have to throw it a lot, but we have to be successful (duh). Is Edwards good enough to be a guy that has consistent and prolonged success through the air this year?? Call me skeptical on that one.

I also believe we need to be a run first offense, or at least run oriented offense. I can’t see this team passing the ball 57% of the time. Not with the running backs we have, and not with the offensive line we’ll have. I don’t know if Walker at LT and a pair of interior rookies is good for a heavy passing attack.

I think it’s a bit over the top to think that both will break 1000 yards and score 10+ TD’s each. I’ll be surprised if either scores 10 TD’s, but believe TO has a significantly better chance to achieve that feat. I honestly can’t see this team succeeding if they throw it like those numbers would entail.

Since I think TO is a better player, he’s my choice for the guy to hit 1000 and 10. I don’t think Evans reaches either, though there’s a chance he comes close to the yardage total. I just don’t have enough confidence in Edwards to expect both to hit 1000. Do we really expect him to throw it downfield to these guys enough? I still expect lots of dumpoffs and Josh Reed.

I think it ALL depends on 2 things:

1. the ability of these 3 guys to remain healthy and on the field all season
2. The Bills getting blown out of games often and needing to throw more “garbage” stats.

I think Evans can hit the century mark and TD mark, but I see him getting far fewer catches based on the fact that he may become that home-run threat like never before. Sure, Owens brings the same game, but I see the team going to Owens for the passes in coverage and Evans over coverage.

If they both have 1000 yard season, I think we are not that good, and are passing too much.
So, I would rather have two 1,000 yard rushers, than two 1,000 yard passers. T.O. addition is awesome, but as Tim Graham said in one of the Fan Shots of his AFC East blog, MArshawn is our best player, and I’d like to see him and Freddy with some amazing stats, if it were to happen, which I don’t see with Rhodes now in the mix.
Anyway, I want to win mostly, so however it comes I am for it, but with the new line, something tells me quick west coast throws, that hit TO and others for short to intermedite passes with room to run after the catch will be the formula, with a lot of running the football. I expect a balanced to team, and I only expect Edwards, if healthy all year, to throw it 450-475 times, and thats whethe we’re good or not, but in some sense less may be more. I don’t think, at least in the beginning of the year, we will be pass happy like the 07 Pats or anything so, whatever….I’m done

I think Evans will have less catches than he normally does, but for more yards and TD’s. Normally Evans gets quite a few underneath catches and gets YAC. Witth TO taking some of that away, he’ll be more free on deep throws, leading to a higher number of TD’s. TO will help turn our red zone FG’s into TD’s. Josh Reed should be able to open up the short middle to passing, and help on blitzes.

I am excited!

Nice work Poz!

First – I really really really hope this comes to pass. It’d be for a great season (excitement wise at least)

I personally don’t care what stats they put up if they win. If the D carries the O all season and Lynch gets 500 yds, Trent throws for 1200 with 89 picks and TO becomes our DE but we win I’ll be very very happy. Its wins for me – what ever gets us the W’s baby (JUST WINN BABY WINN)

but great write up – I like projections and you obviously put a lot of thought into it. Here’s hoping it comes true!

Too many responses to spread it all out but just a couple of thoughts to those who don’t think our offense will throw more or will put up big numbers. What do you think we are going to see on Monday Night Football against the Pats? We are going to see the Bills forced to go to the air to keep up with the high octane offense. Now, we play the Pats twice, the Colts once, the Saints once, and the Texans once. We play arguably the four most explosive offenses in the league FIVE times next year. Trent will hit 500 attempts and TO and Lee will be forced to make plays against those teams and the other high quality opponents we will face.