The First 23: Comparing Trent Edwards to Jim Kelly
by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2009 1:15 PM EDT
in Buffalo Bills News
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We'll begin this post by stating the obvious: the 2009 Buffalo Bills will only go as far as starting quarterback Trent Edwards can carry them.
Now that that's out of the way, let's get on with the more interesting discussions - whether or not Edwards is going to be any good. (If you're asking ESPN's Ron Jaworski, he's on board the Edwards Express.)
Is it fair to compare a young quarterback entering his second full season as a starter to a Buffalo-area icon and first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback? Absolutely not. So we feel it's important to note that we're not comparing Edwards to Jim Kelly here; rather than using this as a straight-up comparison between the two, we'd prefer to look at it from the angle of how each player fared through 23 games, where Kelly went from there, and where Edwards can go from his current point. (And hey - as Kelly stands alone in terms of competent modern-era quarterbacks that began their careers in Buffalo, he's the only Bill that we can accurately compare Edwards to. Unless you're up for an Edwards-J.P. Losman comparison.)
Before we get started, it's important to note that Kelly's data comes from his first 23 NFL starts. At that point in time, Kelly was at a different point in his professional career than Edwards is now. Kelly already had two years of professional experience in the USFL; when he made his twenty-third start for the Bills, he was 27 years old. Edwards got 16 of his 23 starts in before turning 25.
| Kelly v. Edwards - First 23 | |||||||||
| Com. | Att. | % | Yds. | YPA | TD | INT | QBR | W-L | |
| Jim Kelly (1986-1987) | 457 | 738 | 61.9 | 5,413 | 7.33 | 35 | 27 | 84.8 | 8-15 |
| Trent Edwards (2007-2008) | 396 | 643 | 61.6 | 4,329 | 6.73 | 18 | 18 | 79.1 | 12-11 |
Clearly, Kelly was a far more prolific passer early in his career than Edwards has been - he threw for double the amount of touchdowns and had a far more efficient YPA figure. Like Edwards, Kelly ran hot and cold like any young, talented quarterback - he had weeks where he was unstoppable (like his first NFL start, where he went 20 of 33 for 292 yards and 3 TD), but he also had weeks where he was far worse than pedestrian (in a home loss to New England in 1986, he completed 13 of 26 passes for 166 yards and 2 INT).
Kelly was also better more frequently than Edwards. Kelly had more 250+ yard passing days (11 to Edwards' 5) and more multiple-TD games (10 to Edwards' 3), but also more multiple-INT games (8 to Edwards' 4). Chalk that up to more prolific offensive talent, a different mindset, and different head coaches - again, we're not comparing the two players, just their situations.
Even with Kelly putting up monster numbers in some cases and stellar numbers for an inexperienced NFL player, the Bills were just 8-15 in his first 23 starts - a time period which included a coaching transition. Edwards is 12-11 through two seasons as a starter; while he has struggled far more often than he's been productive, the Bills remain above .500 with him in the lineup.
One more quick note: Edwards has quickly developed a reputation for being injury-prone due to the fact that he's missed six games in his first two seasons. It took the Bills 29 games to get to start No. 23 for Edwards, but it took 26 to get to No. 23 for Kelly - he missed three games himself early in the 1987 season.
What happens next?
Again, you can compare the stat lines all you want, but we want to focus more on what happens next. For Kelly - already a pretty prolific thrower in his own right - things got much better from a team standpoint. If Edwards can follow this trend, Buffalo should be in business in 2009.
| Kelly v. Edwards - Next 16 | |||||||||
| Com. | Att. | % | Yds. | YPA | TD | INT | QBR | W-L | |
| Jim Kelly (1987-1988) | 274 | 466 | 58.8 | 3,397 | 7.29 | 17 | 15 | 80.2 | 12-4 |
| Trent Edwards (2009?) | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Strangely, Kelly's production slipped a bit. He completed a lower percentage of his passes, his TD-INT ratio worsened, and his QB rating dropped as a result. Yet he was far more consistent transitioning from his second to third NFL seasons, and as a result, the Bills established an identity, won 12 of Kelly's next 16 starts, and found themselves playoff-bound in 1988 - a year they would make it all the way to the AFC Championship Game.
We have already examined the impact that WR Terrell Owens could have on Edwards' stat line, statistically hypothesizing that Edwards could complete 65 percent of his throws for 3,344 yards, 20 TD and 12 INT next season. That's a bold prediction, we realize, but historically speaking, Owens has brought about similar statistical leaps for the quarterbacks he's played with - including two unknowns (at the time), Jeff Garcia and Tony Romo. In many ways, that projected stat line would be superior to the line that Kelly put up from starts 24 through 39. Clearly, Edwards would need to participate in a full slate of games next season to get all of those 16 starts into the only season that matters at this point - next season. If the cards fall as they could (and isn't Buffalo due for a little luck?), the results could be very exciting.
There are many ways to improve as a quarterback. For the 2009 Buffalo Bills, Trent Edwards needs to improve statistically - and we think he will simply because of the presence of Owens. But statistical improvement is far less important than improvement in the win column, and Edwards needs improvement there as well. Kelly improve drastically in this department because he found his role - the facilitator of a burgeoning offense, but not quite ready to conduct the whole train himself. That's where Edwards can be in 2009 - and if he gets there, and can play consistently enough to stay there, Edwards could see a similar upward trend. And that, folks, is all we intended to discover with this study - there is reason for optimism in Buffalo.
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I think this is all fair analysis, and it is interesting that Kelly slumped a bit in 87, then roared back in 88 for a big year. I can only hope that these Bills nearly mirror the 88 Bills in W-L and a trip to the playoffs…that is where we need to be as a team and you are right in stating that the Bills will go as Trent goes.
Trent is an enigma at QB…I think of all the QBs in the NFL, there is so much unknown about him, his game and his potential and it is hard to fit him into a certain mold. He isn’t immobile, but he isn’t a “running QB”, he takes chances, is tough, but has gotten injured, he is accurate, and while his arm isn’t the strongest, has zip on his ball and has proven to throw an accurate deep ball. If he can a read defenses like some of the #18s or #12s of the league (you know who I mean) or maybe even just half as good as those guys, and if the coordinator can find his groove, then we have something…Go Bills
The Bills CAN win any game
I think Edwards, considering the team around him, has actually done quite well. With a solid running game and Owens, he might have a bigger statistical jumb than we imagined. Maybe not in total yards and attempts, those might go down, but in TD’s and wins. Imagine if we can average over 4.0 yards per carry? Awesome.
Totally agree, syrbillsfan, that the biggest jump for Edwards will probably be in TDs and wins. I think the running game will succeed much more this year than last year. That might detract from some personal QB stats, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the TDs and wins improve.
"I know I'm a true receiver..." Roscoe Parrish, Buffalo Bills - May 2009
"In my heart, I know I'm funny." Lt Steven Hauk, Good Morning Vietnam - 1987
It just seems to me that QB stats are only a small part of the puzzle. I think if Trent has at least 20 touchdowns, we’ll be fine. One pick per game on average wouldn’t be bad either. If you really look at Kelly’s stats, you can tell that Buffalo was a well balanced team back then. That 1988 year where he dipped a little, this guy might have something to do with it -
Robb Riddick – RB GMS ATT Yds Avg TDs
1988 BUF 15 111 438 3.9 12
Probably had a lot of runs near the goal line, so Kelly didn’t get the TDs. I also noticed that Kelly fumbled the ball a decent amount for a QB, fumbling 76 times over his career, with a career low of 4 fumbles in 1990. Of his 76 fumbles, only 7 were directly returned for a TD. Trent had 9 fumbles last year alone, with 3 returned for TDs. I think the changes on the interior line will help keep Trent upright, and cut down on his chances to fumble the ball.
Good writeup
A good look at reason for optimism I concur. I found this interesting, while I know not something we all don’t know from John Clayton ESPN.com of discussing the impact of T.O.‘s departure from Dallas and how it will affect Romo:
The situation in Dallas for Romo is what Trent Edwards went through in Buffalo in 2008. After seven weeks, teams found out that if you stuff the run and double-team Lee Evans, the Bills’ offense was totally solved.
The Bills lacked the ability to counter defensive attacks. I today watched highlights of week 16 game at Denver, Edwards first game back after his groin injury. If you recall, Fred Jackson had a 65 yd reception for the first play of the 4th quarter on a wheel route. I feel that the reason for example, the Bills have used Fred Jackson split wide so often in OTAs, is because they are looking at the counters they can use to beat defenses attacks and Freddy Jackson split out on a LB may be one of those options. The Bills also used A TON of PLAY ACTION in this game, and it worked wonders as the Bills won of course 30-23. Granted I know it was on the league’s worst defenses, but the Bills finally COUNTERED, the first time since basically they beat the Chargers to go 5-1. If you want a trip down memore lane the right here
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
I wish we saw more play action in the offense.
It’s the one gripe with Schonert that people legitimately can make.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
if you
watch the denver game I counted 8 play action passes ran. I think it gets called more than people think but the OL protections a lot of times wouldn’t allow for it, because the communication was often awful (Dockery, Preston/Fowler)
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
That is the only game I remember seeing it in.
Maybe you’re right but we’ll see this year.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 4, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
i think its hard
to compare edwards first year in the NFL with Kelly’s first year in the NFL. Kelly already had a few seasons of professional football under his belt. I really dont think Kelly is an appropriate qb to use for a comparison. Although. there are no other Bills qb that can really be used…
Yeah, I definitely addressed all of that in the article – Kelly’s extra pro seasons, the age gap, and the fact that there isn’t a good Bills QB to compare early careers with in recent seasons besides J.P. Losman.
I can give you guys the Edwards/Losman stats if you’d like…
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
That really wouldn’t be a comparison so much as it would be “an in-depth look at how badly the quarterback position has sucked in Buffalo over the last 5 seasons.” Not exactly a scorcher of a read.
If the glove don’t fit, it couldn’t be Whit...
The sad part is, Losman outstrips Edwards in some key areas.
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
You know you gotta put that together now.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Trent Edwards 396 643 61.6 4329 6.73 18 18 79.1 12-11
J.P. Losman 352 606 58.1 4017 6.63 24 20 77.6 8-15
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
yikes
but stats really don’t mean that much to me….wins is all that matters, and not turning the ball over to help your team lose…..
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
So where does Losman outstrip Edwards?
Lower completion percentage, lower yards and YPA, more TDs but more INTs, lower passer rating, worse win percentage (the most important number to me)
Is more TDs really it?
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 4, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
The other (unlisted) one was rushing. Losman’s legs were an asset; someday, the fact that he averaged 11.6 yards per rush during his Bills career will be the answer to a fun trivia question.
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 4, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s 11.6 yards per game. He averaged 4.7 per rush.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Haha, yeah, my bad
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 4, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
yea sry i just ment that
in general its not a great comparison. id rather see him compared to say eli manning or tom brady. someone that came out of college and right into the nfl
QB Comparisons
I realize that you are comparing modern era QB’s, but I wonder how he would compare to Joe Ferguson. Comparing these QB’s would be difficult, still they were young QB’s complementing solid running games. They also had upgrades to the recieving corps several years into thier careers. Finally, the defenses during this time of thier careers were average to slightly above average as well (if memory serves).
Ferguson… much lower completion percentage, <2400 passing yards, 16 TDs and 22 INTs in his first 28 games.
If you look at Jack Kemp’s his stats would be even worse.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
No way!
Edwards will never be Pennington. Trent likes to take off when pressured out of the pocket and Pennington either throws it away or gets picked off. Not too mention that Trent’s arm strength is much better than Chad’s ever was.
The time to deliver is now and if you fail to do so you will no doubt witness the consequences first hand.
Kemp
Kemp’s stats pretty much stunk any way you chose to look at them. Kemp’s intangibles and ablity to make plays when it mattered are what set him apart. Also, he was an NFL back-up who rarely step foot on the field of play for his first 3-4 years.
I don't know what the last part matters to your argument...
Also, he was an NFL back-up who rarely step foot on the field of play for his first 3-4 years.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 4, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
For those of you who don’t expect a huge statistical jump from Edwards then I think its safe to say that you expect him not to be the QB of the future here. I know Bills fans don’t like to jump to conclusions (that tends to be the role of Jets fans) but I think in this case its warranted. If Trent Edwards doesn’t put up a significant statistical jump its safe to say he will never be a prime time QB and at best will be a Chad Pennington type winner. When young QBs have weapons they produce. Jay Cutler did, Peyton Manning early in his career did, and Eli Manning did after they got Plaxico.
The simple fact is that Trent Edwards is playing with Terrell Owens, Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch and a host of other offensive talent. I don’t care if you’re young or old, accurate or a gunslinger, you are not a good QB if you can’t produce with that talent. If we see a season of 2,800 yards 16 TDs and 15 INTs I think you can bet that Dick Jauron isn’t the only one losing his job. At the very least there will be competition brought in either through the draft or free agency. Trent needs to put up 3,000 + with a clear distinction between his TDs and INTs and he needs to stay on the field.
Now, I personally think Trent Edwards is the real deal, so I do expect big numbers and big plays and a potent attack. But if you are sitting here telling yourself that your not confident that Edwards will put up significantly better numbers then you simply don’t believe in the guy. Jon Kitna put up monster numbers with Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson and Jay Culter did it with Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall. Patrick Ramsey can put up big numbers with TO and Lee Evans. One of two things will happen this year. Our offense stinks and we don’t win and we know that Trent isn’t the real deal or our passing attack is wide open and we outscore opponents and we know that Trent can play.
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
Articles like these are why people are so Bi-polar when it comes to the Bills.....(and other sports teams)
Why should Trent Edwards be compared to any other person………why cant he just be compared to himself?
Trying to see if Trent Edwards could possibly be “the next Jim Kelly” is only gonna turn people against the young signal caller (much like what happened to JP) if he doesnt achieve the greatness of a once in a generation player……..like Jim Kelly.
Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009
by norcaliangelsfan on Jun 3, 2009 4:23 PM EDT reply actions
Like I said, and tried to re-iterate as many times as possible – this isn’t a “Can Edwards be Jim Kelly?” article, and I do NOT want it to be perceived that way. I wanted it to be a comparison of their situations, specifically Kelly’s slow start and how a little stabilization did wonders for him and the team.
I guess I have to say it: Trent Edwards is not and will not ever be Jim Kelly, and I hoped that none of you would come out of the article with the impression that I’m operating under that delusion.
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I hoped that none of you would come out of the article with the impression that I’m operating under that delusion.
Captain Obvious read the article and agrees – he also says that you made it perfectly clear that wasn’t the case. But man – that guy can come across as a jerk sometimes can’t he?
Everyone has a photographic memory… some just don’t have film
by J2 on Jun 3, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I read the article thoroughly (this time)
and I realize what you said…..however no matter how many times I read that this wasnt a “comparison” between the two I couldnt help but feel that it was……….
Kinda like when someone prefaces a statement with “Im not meaning to be rude…….but”
and then it always seems to come to reason that the person says something rude….
I see it as the nature of the beast.
Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009
by norcaliangelsfan on Jun 3, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
however no matter how many times I read that this wasnt a "comparison" between the two I couldnt help but feel that it was
Haha. Note to self – learn to write so that people actually understand wtf I’m talking about. :)
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL...........Im not trying to knock your writing style....
I enjoy all your articles, you have a unique style which entertains and is extremely factually accurate (many of today top “journalist” could learn a thing or two from you)……….and my gripe wasnt geared towards you specficially, but towards the whole “comparing the new guy to the greatest guy ever” trend that many writers use today. It’s frustrating enough when your favorite team is stuck with a guy like JP Losman for years, and its even more frustrating when writers remind you that he’s not nor will ever be the great “So and So”
Of course if the Bills hadnt sucked for the entire 2000’s maybe my opinion on this would be different……but alas it is not.
Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009
by norcaliangelsfan on Jun 3, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I agree with you there – I normally don’t like doing comparisons like this, or really, talking about quarterbacks at all. It must be nice to be a Colts fan – you can just say “PEYTON MANNING, BEOTCH!” and talk about other things.
You have no idea how uncomfortable I was comparing Edwards to Kelly in any fashion, precisely for the reason you mentioned. Still, I wanted to do something like this because Kelly’s team came together quickly, and there are parallels between the two situations that I should have perhaps highlighted instead of doing it from the QB perspective. It starts and ends with the QB, though, so I focused my efforts there.
If you want to read between the lines, you can read this article as my latest attempt to convince myself that Edwards can be “the guy”. :)
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm totally with you on this too........and not just because Trent is a "Stanford guy"
If you want to read between the lines, you can read this article as my latest attempt to convince myself that Edwards can be "the guy". :)
But because he’s a Bills guy lol
Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009
by norcaliangelsfan on Jun 3, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I will also say Brian.........
that if you arent Comparing Trent to Jim then your title could be construed differently.
Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009
by norcaliangelsfan on Jun 3, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I was taught in journalism school to keep headlines to eight words or less. I’m breaking the rule here. If you can figure out to say “Where we compare Trent Edwards to Jim Kelly, but not in the way that you think, it’s more like analyzing their situations to see how Kelly improved with stabilization and we’re turning that into another reason to be optimistic about Edwards” in eight words or less, I’d love to hear it. :)
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
well Im only good at the griping...............
not the “coming up with a better solution”
So for that……..I give myself a “I suck” lol
Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009
by norcaliangelsfan on Jun 3, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
You bring up a good point, though – I guarantee there are people who read that headline and said “OK, yeah, Galliford’s lost his last marble.”
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah but if everyone just went tongue and cheek with what you wrote.......
that’d make for some dull discussions……..and a mediocre community….
which fortunately for all of us………..is not the case at all here at BR.
Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009
by norcaliangelsfan on Jun 3, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
That I will always agree with one million percent.
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I want to see Trent continue showing the leadership and maturity that Kelly had. That’s what makes a the good professional QB. Trent needs to be the vocal leader of the offense, and more importantly, an intelligent player who leads by example. If he can show more of that this year, he’ll do well.
It's just a game.
It's a good comparison
Just that Trent would never have survived what Kelly did in the USFL..That’s why I don’t see Him as the Guy of the future for the Bills.Possibly a good backup though..Trent does seem to be coming along at a good pace though and if He gets what He needs from the coaching,He might stay health enough to make it as a starter..Kelly had the advantage of having good coaching and a Great Front Office to surround Him with the players He needed..
by FanFromThe80s on Jun 3, 2009 7:04 PM EDT reply actions
I remember watching Kelly play in the USFL
He was in total gunslinger mode. Not much discipline in the route running. I think he played for New Jersey. Strange considering his NFL career.
I am a big Trent Edwards fan. If he plays like he did in the first 6 games last year, we have our man. If he plays like he did the rest of the season, we’re in trouble. If spring OTA’s are a measure, He’ll be fine. It looks like his swagger is back.
My concern lies with Schonert. He is the man who needs a breakout year. Too bad so much of Trent’s future will be determined by Turk. I do not have optimism there.
Edwards reminds me of Ken Stabler with a stronger arm. He has the potential to be precise and accurate 20 yds down field, yet can hit the long ball with speed like Stabler could not. I’d give him 2 more years. I’m with “Jaws”. Trent, minus the heavy expectations, will be good.
The 2 QB’s are very different. Kelly is a Farve type and Edwards is a Stabler type. Both have the potential to lead a team to the promised land. Or so we hope.
T.O. - A ticking time bomb.
Kelly played for the Houston Gamblers in the USFL. When they folded, he was acquired by the NJ Generals, but he never played a down for them.
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Looking at Kelly’s stats, I wonder if he’s the kind of guy who, if he didn’t spend a couple of years in the USFL, if he might not have panned out? It seems like an odd thing to say, but he wasn’t a tremendous passer the way Marino was. I think it helped him tremendously to be the “man” for the gamblers, and by the time he got to the Bills, he had some of that ’slinging out of his system.
Offensive Line????
- I don’t really think you can compare them accurately without considering their offensive lineman. Let’s face it, Kelly was not a mobile QB and had Jim Ritcher, John Davis, Joe Devlin, Kent Hull, and Ken Jones. And he had Lofton, Chris Burkett, and Andre Reed at Receiver, which is a lot better than what Edwards had for an offensive line.
He didn't have Lofton in '86 or '87.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jun 4, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
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