Drive stats tell no lies: Bills need playmakers
Roughly a month ago, we examined the Buffalo Bills' trip through the AFC East during the 2008 season and pinpointed the not-so-difficult-to-surmise reasons that the Bills managed to win zero of their six most important games. The verdict? Besides the obvious - scoring points and controlling the ground game on each side of the ball, to start - a general lack of big plays was the big reason that the team was not only 0-6 in the division, but 2-8 overall in the final ten games of the season.
It's not as if we needed yet another piece of evidence to further hammer home the "Bills need more playmakers" argument, but when Football Outsiders puts forth such excellent summaries as their drive stats analysis... well, let's just say that it re-opens some old wounds.
If you're not familiar with Football Outsiders, take a moment or two to get to know them. Trust us - it's worth it. If you're a novice, just take a quick glance at the explanation of their drive stats and you'll know enough to be getting on with. What follows will likely be the least surprising article you have or ever will read here; it's also further proof that, on some teams as starved for playmakers as the Bills are, signing a player as divisive as WR Terrell Owens is well worth the risk - despite what the Tom Currans of the world would have you believe.
Offense: turnovers with zero scoring balance
Let's start with Buffalo's offense, which came in at No. 16 in overall drive stat ranking - to call the offense "middle of the pack" would be an understatement in that sense. The offense ranked out well in average drive start (32.42 yard line), a feat that they can thank the special teams and kick returner Leodis McKelvin for. They also did well in punts per drive, with the seventh-lowest total in the league at .339 punts per drive - or one punt roughly every three drives. Normally, one would believe that that low total would be beneficial to Buffalo's offensive attack; in reality, it just means that the Bills were finding different ways to get rid of the ball. After all, their No. 20 ranking in points per drive (1.75) was hardly stellar considering the schedule the team played.
The low point was Buffalo's runner-up status for the league's worst fumbles per drive rate (.082); they weren't great with interceptions, either (No. 21 ranking). The Bills were No. 27 in the NFL in turnovers per drive, turning the ball over roughly once every six drives. That doesn't help you score points, clearly, and more importantly, it puts your team in a bad spot.
Defense: not enough turnovers, little help
We've been screaming for more big plays from Buffalo's defense here for quite some time, and with good reason: we're right. Buffalo was No. 27 in the league in defensive interceptions per drive (.059), and despite a relatively high fumble rate (.059, No. 11), the Bills were a highly pedestrian No. 22 in forced turnovers per drive (.118). Despite all of this, Buffalo's defense was No. 16 overall in drive stats ranking, thanks to solid rankings in touchdowns surrendered per drive and yards surrendered per drive.
Still, we've touched on the lack of offensive help already, and Buffalo's special teams had a helping hand as well. The aforementioned turnover issues offensively clearly didn't help the cause, but the kick and punt coverage units had their hand in the Bills' unspectacular No. 23 ranking in average opponent drive start, which just happened to be the 31-yard line. Given the lack of help, Buffalo's defense actually did well to rank as highly overall as they did - and yet, given the schedule, more turnovers and a higher ranking would have been nice.
Playmakers can bring about the needed change
With a re-tooled offensive line blocking for a still-green (and streaky) quarterback in Trent Edwards, it would be naive to expect the Bills to get much better in the turnover department offensively. Mistakes are going to be made. The only way to counterbalance mistakes is to have quick-strike firepower; in short, you need playmakers to play the role of equalizer. Enter Owens. He's here for that reason as well as a multitude of others - he levels the playing field for the Bills' re-shuffled and still-maturing offense.
Despite the 16 rankings offensively and defensively, the Bills dropped to No. 23 in the NFL in net drive stat ranking (net is essentially offense minus defense in each category, to calculate an overall average drive trend for the team on the season). The Bills were one of ten NFL teams to finish in negative figures in net ranking; of those ten teams, none picked lower than No. 18 overall in this past April's NFL Draft - and the Bears were the exception, not the rule. That ought to tell you something right there.
The bottom line is this: we can harp all we want about line play and quarterback play, because those things are clearly important to fielding a successful football team. But when Bills GM Russ Brandon spoke after the Bills' signing of Owens, he spoke a truth: you need playmakers to win in this league. Teams with playmakers can overcome "basic" football deficiencies such as line play - just ask the Arizona Cardinals. So while you're worrying about Edwards or the re-tooled offensive line, don't forget that dramatic improvements in those areas mean diddly squat if the team can't make the big plays to capitalize on their (hopefully) solid foundation.
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Comments
Very true!
Good post Brian.
Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
by keysh67 on Jul 2, 2009 9:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Normally I take most statistics with a grain of salt. As the saying goes, you can find a stat to prove anything. However, this analysis provides a ton of details across a whole spectrum of different aspects of the team. Many of these numbers are very telling about how the Bills operated in 2008 and their rate of success (or lack thereof). I think that if you were to give these numbers to people who know the game only make them anonymous (ie: Team X) and ask them to predict the record of said team, most of the responses would be in the 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 range. SURPRISE! Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Buffalo Bills!
Great post Brian.
I'll donate $1 to help Mary Wilson pay the estate tax...who's with me?!?
by O.J. Is My Bodyguard on Jul 2, 2009 10:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Another good weapon is Fred Jackson in the slot. I love when you can get a RB on a DB because their so much more physical than WRs and just don’t care as much about getting hit – they actually try to make contact.
He’s got good size, speed and experience to be really good in the slot. I can just see him breaking tackles and getting 30 yard gainers once ever 2 or 3 games.
I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
by J2 on Jul 2, 2009 10:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
sorry…..
RB on a DB because their
they’re
once ever 2 or 3 games
every
thats what happens when your doing 3 things at once and come back to a comment you have a third of the way finished
I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
by J2 on Jul 2, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d much, much, much rather have a LB covering a RB. That’s where you get mismatches in the passing game. DB’s can cover RB’s so much better than some LB could. I don’t think that’s a good matchup at all, actually.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jul 2, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well who ever – as long as Jackson makes them look like a fool. Could be DT covering him – what ever works!
I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
by J2 on Jul 2, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you remember last year...
When action Freddy when out & up and caught a deep 20+y down the right side? He is an awesome receiver and very fast. You bring up a great point that he is an awesome weapon in the passing game.
Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!
by keysh67 on Jul 2, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Denver
Those stats really show a good picture of what Cutler brought to the table. I can’t wait to see what he does witha less talented receiving corp.
by syrbillsfan on Jul 2, 2009 10:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
good article Brian
I’m wondering if our low interception rate on defense is because teams ran against us often. Does anyone know if teams favored the run against us. I think I’ve asked this same question before but I cant find the stat anywhere.
Owens is going to be a great addition to this team. Outsiders can hate on the signing all they want but everyone knows that if we hadn’t swooped in so fast to get him someone like the Giants would have. The guy makes teams better, even if he does get in the QBs head. Can anyone honestly sit here and say the Cowboys are “better by subtraction” with a straight face? Thats ESPNs go to line and its just not true. They argue Romo won’t feel the need to get him the ball anymore so he’ll make better decisions? Ha! By week 3 Romos going to be wishing he had TO to throw to when Dallas realizes like Detroit did that Roy Williams is not a number 1 receiver. If he was they wouldn’t have kept drafting WRs in Detroit like they did. Just as the Cowboys are that much worse the Bills are that much better. Does it bother me that Trent will feel pressure to get TO the ball? No! In fact, I like it. Good, maybe it’ll help him make faster decisions and release the ball. Teammates have liked TO everywhere hes been except the QB, you dont hear a lot of those guys saying bad things about him. Thing is, TO is a vocal leader and that rubs QBs, who are natural leaders, the wrong way. Trent is young and knows TO has only a few years left, I’m betting he has no problem deferring to number 81 except when absolutely necessary not to. Playmaker!!
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on Jul 2, 2009 11:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does it bother me that Trent will feel pressure to get TO the ball? No! In fact, I like it
hopefully it’ll force him to be a little more aggressive downfield as well. not a bad thing
I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
by J2 on Jul 2, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
great call!
TO brings so much to the table that we havent had here in so long. Drive sustaining , playmaker. Plus if TO is drawing a double team and Trent knows Lee is one on one he HAS to take the aggressive downfield shot. With a guy basically in a prove it year (which Trent is) TO is just what the doctor ordered.
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on Jul 2, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m hoping to see the quick slant come back too! Trent seems like the perfect QB for those routes but we neither had a) the plays called or b) the WR to pull that off. TO can do that – I love that route
I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
by J2 on Jul 2, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love that route
You might, and I might as well. But the question is, does TO?
by krytime on Jul 2, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
TO is just what the doctor ordered.
Just as long as it wasn’t Dr. Jekyll.
The Prayer of Pass Rush - Hail Maybin, blessed with a quick first step, Bruce is with thee; most reverenced art thou among DEs in the AFC, and blessed be the fruit of thy pass rush. Holy Lord, Father of the swim move, we pray for our QB hurries to be numerous and our sacks to be plentiful. Be with us in Victory and at the hour of our Defeat. Amen.
by Joe P. on Jul 2, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Teams ran the ball 455 times against us, good for 11th most in the league. We also finished at 11th most in yards given up and yards per carry.
Teams passed the ball 492 times against us, 10th fewest in the league. Of the teams that faced fewer passes, only Detroit had fewer INT’s.
I think the lack of a pass rush and mediocre players in the secondary contributed to the low INT numbers, along with the passive scheme we trot out there. I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s because teams are able to run it on us pretty easily, though that might have a small impact.
I think Dallas and Romo are really going to miss TO. Roy Williams stinks, so there O is not going to be anywhere near as explosive as it was before. They might want to consider being a run heavy O with their big OL, and three headed running back attack.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jul 2, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks K
good numbers, its a bit frustrating that we cant force teams to throw and that when we do, we cant generate the push on the line necessary to disrupt their attack. I am aware that we play in a division with very very good offensive lines but that is all the more reason we have to be able to counter that with a solid defensive line. Does Maybin help? Sure, but I’m starting to think we’re in a for another season of yelling at the television while Chad Pennington looks left, then right, then left, then steps up then throws for an 8 yard gain, all taking a nice long count of 4 or 5 Mississippi before he releases.
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on Jul 2, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here is a link to sortable defensive stats from 2008 if you want to go and look for other stuff.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jul 2, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In a ten team fantasy league, what rounds do Romo and Roy Williams go?
by krytime on Jul 2, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t touch Roy Williams with a 10 foot pole. Romo should be the 7-9th QB taken, IMO.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jul 2, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
“Still, we’ve touched on the lack of offensive help already, and Buffalo’s special teams had a helping hand as well. The aforementioned turnover issues offensively clearly didn’t help the cause, but the kick and punt coverage units had their hand in the Bills’ unspectacular No. 23 ranking in average opponent drive start”
Really? It looks like FOs special team stats show the Bills to be above average on both kickoff and punt cover teams (and #1 overall). Or am I reading that wrong?
by Pistol on Jul 2, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We’re ranked that highly because of our own return games (i.e. Leo and Roscoe). We’re somewhat middle-of-the-pack for each coverage unit. And as I said in the article, some of that comes directly from the offense’s turnovers, which obviously help an opponent’s drive start. Wasn’t blaming our revered special teams units, just pointing out that they weren’t perfect.
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by Brian Galliford on Jul 2, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, I know you weren’t saying they were perfect, but sorting the columns shows that the Bills were 9th on kickoff coverage and 8th on punt coverage. That’s well above average which I think shows that the STs were a help to the field position (and shows that the offense was more of a hindrance).
by Pistol on Jul 2, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We can talk about the need for playmakers all we want, because we do need more of them, but until Trent plays better than a bottom tier QB it won’t really matter. If he doesn’t have the guts to get it downfield to his playmakers, we won’t see much improvement there.
Hopefully, he feels the pressure and steps his game up. We sure need it.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jul 2, 2009 12:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
until Trent plays better than a bottom tier QB it won’t really matter.
I disagree. I’ll be the first to single out Trent as THE definitive most important factor – I tend to beat that dead horse to a bloody pulp. But football is not a simple game. Playmakers are the great equalizer. Are you telling me that with one more playmaker on each side of the ball last year, we don’t beat Cleveland, we don’t go 0-6 in the division (I’ll remind you again that we didn’t lose any of those games by more than 13 points), and we don’t, at a BARE minimum, crack .500 – even with Edwards’ inconsistency. I think that’s false.
Bottom line is this: yeah, Trent improving is the easiest way to get better. It needs to happen. But if he doesn’t, more playmakers is still going to help.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Jul 2, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good call
I bet TO helps us win, by himself, two more games last year. If we count the improvement of our other playmakers by his presence that number goes up. Unfortunately we can’t translate that into wins next year so simply, we go from playing an impossibly easy schedule to an impossibly difficult one and, oh yea, Tom Brady is back in the division….sigh….
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on Jul 2, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
TO is going to win 2 games by himself? Come on poz, that’s ridiculous. Dallas was 9-7 the year before TO, and 9-7 the first year with TO. I bet they were saying the same things about his addition. He will definitely help improve our offense, but saying one WR is going to add two wins is a little over the top for me.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jul 2, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe we would have won those games, maybe not. Remember, Trent was too scared to throw the ball downfield against Cleveland, so would a playmaker have helped when he wasn’t willing to go downfield with it? Plus, we could have won it had Lindell made the FG anyhow.
Playmakers can do a lot to help a team, especially a young offense, but if the QB can’t get them the ball, they can’t help us. Here’s to hoping TO can help Trent take a step forward this year.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jul 2, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trent was too scared to throw the ball downfield against Cleveland, so would a playmaker have helped when he wasn’t willing to go downfield with it?
If the QB is confident a receiver is going to get open, that will go a long way towards boosting his confidence.
"I know I'm a true receiver..." Roscoe Parrish, Buffalo Bills - May 2009
"In my heart, I know I'm funny." Lt Steven Hauk, Good Morning Vietnam - 1987
by thefourwinds on Jul 2, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Playmakers can do a lot to help a team, especially a young offense, but if the QB can’t get them the ball, they can’t help us.
Agree. Obviously I agree with that. I’m just saying that a player that can take, for example, a pass behind him and hit a lane for six makes a quarterback look good, too.
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by Brian Galliford on Jul 2, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But how often does that happen? Even if TO does it 4-5 times this year, which seems like a lot, what about every other pass Trent will be throwing?
I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree on this, even though we don’t necessarily disagree.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jul 2, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha yeah, we’re not really disagreeing on anything. :)
I’ll just say this…
Even if TO does it 4-5 times this year, which seems like a lot
If 2 of those are the difference to get us two more wins… that’s all I’ve been saying all along.
Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more
by Brian Galliford on Jul 2, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully, he feels the pressure and steps his game up
he better feel the pressure! If he doesn’t break out with Terrell Owens, Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans, and Fred Jackson at this disposal I doubt that any team, let alone ours, will have faith that he ever can!
Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.
by poz on Jul 2, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The LOS report makes it even more frustrating.
We are getting excellent drive starts but can’t seem to do anything about it.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jul 2, 2009 4:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Our offense
could use more crossing routes and short passes thrown in the mix.
It’s hard to get pressure on a QB when he’s only taking 3 step drops. It also makes it easier on the O-line in pass protection.
Get the Bills back to the big game!
by Blitz on Jul 6, 2009 9:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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