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Comparing 2009 AFC East division schedules

In the NFL, division games are (usually) the tightest, most closely-contested battles of the season - even when a league juggernaut is playing a league doormat.  Any NFL player or coach will tell you that if you want to win big in this league, you have to win in your own division.

We have already dived into the inner workings behind the Buffalo Bills' abysmal 0-6 showing in the AFC East last season.  At that point, we discussed exactly what the Bills need to improve to win their first divisional matchup since the 2007 season.  Even if those improvements are made, nothing is certain in a closely-contested, hard-fought division game - Buffalo's (relatively) close finishes against their biggest rivals just last season is an indication of that truth.

When you're playing in the division, you take any advantage you can get.  At first glance, the Bills - who finished last in the AFC East, and thus get, in technical terms, a last-place schedule - should have a slight scheduling advantage over the Patriots, Dolphins and Jets.  A deeper look, however, reveals that that isn't necessarily the case.

Star-divide

Pairings for AFC South, NFC South matchups
By now, y'all are likely well aware that the AFC East, outside of its own division, will be facing the entirety of two other NFL divisions this season - the AFC South and the NFC South.  To map out home and road matchups in these two divisions, the NFL essentially pairs up two teams and goes at it.  This year, the Bills are paired with the Dolphins, leaving the Jets to pair with the Patriots.  Confused?  Hopefully this will clear it up.

Miami and Buffalo will play host to the same four teams from the AFC South and NFC South: Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans and Tampa Bay.  They will also travel to the same four locations: Jacksonville, Tennessee, Atlanta and Carolina.  Clearly, that makes the Pats/Jets pairing the inverse; they'll travel to play the teams the Bills and Dolphins host, and they'll host the teams that the Bills and Dolphins meet on the road.

Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans and Tampa Bay, on average, were 9-7 last season.  This first grouping boasts only one playoff team - Indianapolis.  Meanwhile, the group consisting of Jacksonville, Tennessee, Atlanta and Carolina boasts three playoff teams, and those teams, on average, were 10-6.

The schedule is difficult either way when comparing the groups, but clearly, if you're a team hoping to compete, you'd like to play the tougher of the two groups in your own stadium.  Buffalo and Miami won't get that luxury, playing easily the tougher of the two groups on the road.  Meanwhile, the Patriots (and the Jets - but don't let that dilute your bitter feelings) get the tough group at home, and the easy group on the road.

Exclusive matchups
Clearly, we can throw the six divisional games out of the window, as each team in the AFC East gets one home and one away game - it's as even-footed as you can get.  Factoring in the eight games mentioned above, we're left with just two games on the schedule.  These two games are unique to each team's schedules, and are based solely on the previous year's standings.  Each AFC East team will play one team from the AFC North and the AFC West - and it will be the team that finished in the same standing slot as them.

Before we get into the individual team matchups, it should be noted that all four AFC East teams will host their AFC North opponent, and all four AFC East teams will travel to take on their AFC West opponent.

AFCE 1 (Miami): versus AFCN 1 (Pittsburgh), at AFCW 1 (San Diego)
AFCE 2 (New England): versus AFCN 2 (Baltimore), at AFCW 2 (Denver)
AFCE 3 (NY Jets): versus AFCN 3 (Cincinnati), at AFCW 3 (Oakland)
AFC 4 (Buffalo): versus AFCN 4 (Cleveland), at AFCW 4 (Kansas City

By design, the last-place team gets the "easiest" schedule.  In this case, I'm not necessarily certain that's true.  Miami has a rough go of it, clearly, and Baltimore won't be a cakewalk for the Pats, either, but beyond that, it's a pretty level playing field.  Who's to say that Buffalo's road is any easier than the Jets' insofar as exclusive matchups go?

Ranking the schedules
If you're forcing us to rank the four divisional schedules from easiest to nastiest - and obviously you're not, but we'll do it anyway - this is how we see it.

1. New England: The division's best team (with all due respect to the division-champion Dolphins, of course) gets manageable road games and winnable home games against tough opponents (such as their date with Baltimore).

2. NY Jets: Weak exclusive opponents and the same home/road advantage as the Pats.

3. Buffalo: Weak exclusive opponents, but boy, you'll be hard-pressed to find a more challenging road schedule in the entire league. Unless, of course, you consider...

4. Miami: Sometimes, it doesn't pay to be division champs. This schedule is brutal. The Fish have a ridiculously steep hill to climb - made more difficult by the return of that Tom Brady guy - if they hope to defend their division crown.

We knew entering the season that Buffalo's schedule would be infinitely more tiresome than the weak slate of games the team whiffed through in 2008. Even in "catching a break" as the last-place finisher, however, the Bills still don't catch a break when it comes to the schedule itself.

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Not to mention that the Patriots are the only team in the division that will get the Bills with Lynch on suspension AND the Jets with Pace suspended. Must be nice to not only be good but be lucky as well.

by Make a play Whitner on Jul 6, 2009 1:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It's better to be lucky than to be good...

I have to wonder how the NFL schedulers justify the inequities in the strength of the schedule. Granted, the strength of schedule means less now with free agency than it once did, but you can’t help but question why certain teams (like NE) seem to get better schedules than the Bills (like getting the Bills after their bye week, what, 5 out of 6 years?).

It just contributes to the perception that the league is biased against less marketable teams like Buffalo.

Get the Bills back to the big game!

by Blitz on Jul 6, 2009 2:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don’t think it’s fair to say the league is biased against less-marketable teams (i.e. Buffalo) because Goodell is a major supporter of all things Western NY Bills related. It’s fair to think that the league might not promote these teams in prime time, because they consistently fall flat on their faceguards, but to think (which the following is my perception of your comment) they’d intentionally set teams up to fail, thus eliminating a chunk of competitive play, I don’t know about that.

Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jul 6, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Perception

I, too, think that Goodell is a supporter of the Bills franchise. I just have questions about the NFL scheduling department, which, as far as I know, Goodell plays no part in.

When a team, like the Patriots have been, get to play Buffalo after NE’s bye week 5 out of 6 years, it’s time to start questioning the scheduling department. It ticked me off every year I saw that on the schedule. It also made me wonder if there was a bias against the Bills somewhere in the scheduling dept. – not that they would ever admit such a thing…

I don’t think the NFL sets teams up to fail, it just seems like they set certain teams up to succeed.

Get the Bills back to the big game!

by Blitz on Jul 6, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I used to feel that way with the Bills playing the Steelers: they’d always go to Pitt and get creamed. Then they played them the last game of the season in B-lo and, well, got creamed by the 2nd and 3rd team.

Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jul 6, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the NFL were trying to give the Pats an advantage with a well placed bye week, then wouldn’t they be playing a better team than Buffalo after a bye?

by kaisertown on Jul 6, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right, because the Pats really needed the advantage of the bye week to get ready for the Bills….If they were playing the Colts after their bye each season, then you might be on to something.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Jul 6, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can imagine Pats fans seeing the schedule for the first time and thinking “man we get that really easy team after the bye every year. Why doesn’t the NFL ever give Belichick extra time to prepare for a good coach?”

by kaisertown on Jul 6, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but...

I just don’t understand why it couldn’t have been some OTHER easy team after the bye instead of the Bills. We have enough trouble playing NE as it is…

Get the Bills back to the big game!

by Blitz on Jul 7, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Buffalo definitely got screwed over with those NE byes. But I can’t imagine it was anything other than coincidence and bad luck.

by kaisertown on Jul 7, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would accept that happening twice in a row (although I still wouldn’t like it). Any more than that is beyond coincidence, IMO.

Like Belicheat needed an extra week to dissect our defensive calls…

Get the Bills back to the big game!

by Blitz on Jul 8, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well as Brian explained...

Only two games are exclusive. And the Bills have the bottom dwellers from last year. How can you say it’s so unfair?

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Jul 6, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As far as schedualing rules are concerned, Buffalo gets a totally fair schedual. But because of the wide open free agency, Buffalo also get to meet what many perceive as being the league’s most improved team in KC. That being said, I still think that we beat the Chiefs easily. Their deffence is better but their offence will be worst, even with Cassel at the helm; remember, Cassel no longer has a great receiving corps to bail him out.

by CanadianBillsFan on Jul 7, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I try to remember

that strength of schedule is based off last year’s teams’ performance. There’s no gurantee that the cake walk teams are just that the next year, and vice versa with the great ones. Sure, Pittsburgh will always be great (man, I admire that team) and the Pats certainly have the Bills’ number this decade, but each year I think the playing field evens off again.

It seems futile to me to say that the easy schedule will play out that way – much in the same way it’s too early to say a #1 pick will boom or bust the day after they’re drafted.

Do I like what appears to be a tough schedule for a team that should have caught a break? Nope, but they didn’t compete so well against what was actually an easy schedule last year, anyway. At least if they lose in ’09, it “should” be because the competition was tremendously improved.

Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jul 6, 2009 2:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

your right Afghan

If I’m trying to predict what teams will be better this year than last we could do it a million ways but either way, our division’s schedule just gets two brutal divisions. I think the Colts, Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Texans (their offense looks like its ready to explode), Titans and Jags are just such a brutal slate of games. Throw in there that we play the Pats twice.

We might as well start taking bets right now on the odds of Trent Edwards getting injured during the Panthers game. Langston Walker and Brad Butler are going to get toasted by Julius Peppers whos going to get more than a few chances to lay Edwards out.

Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.

by poz on Jul 6, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thinking about the schedule today, I wondered what teams we might beat, and how bad luck will have turned on them for us to win, and how I should keep my mind on that, like I should have done last year when we beat Seattle, Jacksonville and Oakland….but this year, there isn’t that much in the beginning, so if we’re circling anywhere near .500 by the bye, I will have been pleasantly surprised at that….Go Bills!

The Bills CAN win any game

by killascript on Jul 6, 2009 3:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Looking at our schedual this year, if we’re at 500 at the bye, then I say we actually have a good shot at the playoffs. I think that our schedual after the bye is conciderably easier the before it… of corse that’s all up to perception though.

by CanadianBillsFan on Jul 7, 2009 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

strength of sked

is preseason bunk. last year, everyone moaned about the sked.
in the first 8 games, the bills faced the seahawks, jags, and chargers – all who were in the playoffs the year before – and won all three.
the other 5 games they went 2-3 against the raiders, rams, cards, fins and jets – all who watched tv in january as well the prior season – on which strength of sked is based.
go figure.
i wish the season started tomorrow – as i am torn on this years team. i won’t be surprised if they go 11-5, nor will i be surprised if they go 4-12.

by LeClaireBill on Jul 6, 2009 4:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Honestly our last place schedule hasnt helped the last few years........

I dont look for this year to be much different.

Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009

by norcaliangelsfan on Jul 6, 2009 5:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Last year we didn’t have a last place schedule, we had a second-place schedule. Believe it or not, we were second in the division in 2007.

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by Brian Galliford on Jul 6, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my point being.....

we’ve been at or near the bottom of the division a ton the last few years……….and the following years (supposedly easier) schedule hasnt really helped much…….

so Im not holding my breath for this years either.

Godspeed Nick - RIP - 1986-2009

by norcaliangelsfan on Jul 6, 2009 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the point is that although it should be easier, it actually isn’t in most cases, and the Bills who have it tough as it is, will have an even tougher time getting into January play this year. But of course, it’ll be part of Dick Jauron’s defense as to why he deserves another crack at it in 2010….YEESH!

The Bills CAN win any game

by killascript on Jul 6, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and the following years (supposedly easier) schedule hasnt really helped much…

That was, indeed, the whole point of the article. :)

Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more

by Brian Galliford on Jul 6, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

See that just goes to show you how each year is a whole new ball game. The 2007 AFC East was easily one of the weaker divisions in the NFL, the 2008 AFC East was however one of the strongests. To me that says that we’re making too big of a deal about the schedual and should just let everything play out.

by CanadianBillsFan on Jul 7, 2009 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

2008 AFC East was however one of the strongests.

I’ll disagree with that up and down all day. Looks can be very deceiving. There’s a reason our division winner got blown out at home by the Ravens.

Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more

by Brian Galliford on Jul 7, 2009 6:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We had the second easiest schedule in the league last year and it got us nowhere. Maybe with a tougher schedule, we’ll somehow pull off the improbable. That’d be nice.

Shouldn’t the Bills have the toughest schedule here by default? After all, they don’t get to play themselves….

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Jul 6, 2009 8:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Shouldn’t the Bills have the toughest schedule here by default? After all, they don’t get to play themselves….

That would be the Lions, K.

It's just a game.

by jj24 on Jul 6, 2009 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We’re the Lions of the AFC East…we lost every game

The Bills CAN win any game

by killascript on Jul 6, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ouch, K.

ouch.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Jul 7, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well it has a bit of truth, doesn’t it? We don’t get a 7-9 team on our schedule twice, but do get a pair of 11 win teams and a 9 win team, while the other three teams get to face our 7-9 record from 2008….

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Jul 8, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

True. It just shows you how important the division games are. If we had just won two of them…. The Patriots would have made the playoffs and we would have had a winning record. Oh well.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Jul 8, 2009 7:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If I were expecting the Bills to win all or most of their games this year this schedule would be brutal. But by playing 4 of the easier teams at home it gives them more of a chance of beating them while the 4 tough games on the road would probably still be losses even at home plus consider that they might even lose to one or two of the easier teams if they were away. I think this schedule, while gruelling, gives the Bills the ability to maximize their wins this coming year. If we beat the jets and fins home and away and win our remaining home games that’s 8/8. Not the playoff but an improvement over last year with a brutal schedule.

by Tarkus II on Jul 6, 2009 9:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i like your way of looking at it
by playing 4 of the easier teams at home it gives them more of a chance of beating them while the 4 tough games on the road would probably still be losses

You could be right about that

Guards Brad Butler and Brandon Rodd are decent. - Pete Prisco
Brandon Rodd!! Our best player.

by poz on Jul 7, 2009 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

new weapons, new prospects

i think that this years team is better than last year (on paper). the 1 problem that we might have is the O-LINE because of rookies. if they gel, it is going to be a 10-6 or 11-5 season.

by t.o. fan on Jul 7, 2009 10:15 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Regardless, Every Year it is Regardless What the Schedule Is.

Every year a new schedule comes out. Each team starts fresh with certain expectations for the season. Lets break down these expectations. Bring in personnel to your roster and staff that will best fill the weaknesses exposed from the season before. Practice until you have all the right people in place before the season starts. Then game plan against your opponent on a week to week basis and execute. The Steelers, Patriots, Giants and Colts, among a few others don’t look at schedule toughness. Even Belichek isn’t looking beyond this Monday night opener.

Build your team to compete effectively against your division. Win all your home games. As the season progesses win the games you are supposed to win, the under .500 teams. The playoffs will soon follow. Win your division and your in. Win all your home games and you are close to being in the playoffs. Win all your home games and beat the teams your supposed to (Under .500 teams) and your in. Unfortunately, it is not that easy. But we all know you don’t go 0-6 against your division and you don’t split Home games.

As far as schedule goes. There should always be 4 – 6 games that you can measure yourself against. The perrineal powerhouses like the Patriots, Steelers, Colts and maybe this year the Falcons and Titans. All the teams are professional and need to be considered seriously. Regardless we need to compete against our division and protect our home turf.

by VanScottM on Jul 7, 2009 11:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Low Brow Humor....but

We could use the photo of Lynch as our next humorous photo caption contest.

I want to see movies of my dreams. - Built to Spill.

by jj24 on Jul 7, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Here is my entry

“Don’t ya wish your girlfriend was HOT like me,…….Don’t ya wish your girlfriend was a FREAK like me…”

The key to the Bills 2009 season; Can Trent Edwards grow beyond just not being Loseman

by Joe P. on Jul 7, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

“My milkshakes taste better then your… damn right, their better then yours…”

by CanadianBillsFan on Jul 7, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

“What you gon’ do with all that junk?
All that junk inside your trunk?
I’ma get, get, get, get, you drunk,
Get you love drunk off my hump.
My hump, my hump, my hump, my hump, my hump,
My hump, my hump, my hump, my lovely little lumps (Check it out)”

The key to the Bills 2009 season; Can Trent Edwards grow beyond just not being Loseman

by Joe P. on Jul 7, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

LMAO, ok, you win!

by CanadianBillsFan on Jul 7, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Black Eyed Peas baby!!!!!

The key to the Bills 2009 season; Can Trent Edwards grow beyond just not being Loseman

by Joe P. on Jul 7, 2009 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or, if you’re Michael Scott, Black Eyed Crows.

Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more

by Brian Galliford on Jul 8, 2009 6:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but he is not Fergalicious :-P

The key to the Bills 2009 season; Can Trent Edwards grow beyond just not being Loseman

by Joe P. on Jul 8, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Deffinatly not.

Just look at those lady lups!
They’re almost as good as Megan Fox.

by CanadianBillsFan on Jul 8, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gross

Fergie is disgusting

Crystal meth did not help her stay “young looking”

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Jul 9, 2009 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’ll go ahead and blame that on the horribly (and totally unnecessary) plastic surgery.

by CanadianBillsFan on Jul 9, 2009 3:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think Fergie is hot at all....

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Jul 9, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, I think that the meth is to blame

well, that and the plastic surgery!

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Jul 10, 2009 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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