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Bills must alter strategy to make offense work

If you were to ask any fan of the Buffalo Bills what their biggest worry was heading into the 2009 season, you'll likely get a split decision between third-year quarterback Trent Edwards, a revamped offensive line, and a slightly re-tooled, working-up-from-non-existent pass rush.  We posed that exact question to y'all roughly three weeks ago, and the results were overwhelming: 52% of Buffalo Rumblings readers are chewing their fingernails hardest when pondering a Bills offensive line that will feature new starters at all five positions.

Those insecurities have been reinforced in recent days as we have discussed the importance of new LT Langston Walker and imported C Geoff Hangartner.  Plenty of folks are still neurotically fretting about the fact that the team traded a mega-talent like left tackle Jason Peters, now an Eagle.  Buffalo has a lot of promise offensively, but most Bills fans are savvy enough to understand that potential doesn't mean squat entering this season - this line needs to gel quickly, potential or not, or all of that assembled talent will be squandered.

There's been a lot of change up front for the Bills.  That change is scary enough.  To pull the overhaul off successfully, however, Buffalo's coaches need to be prepared to bite the bullet and make more changes; this time, they need to come philosophically and schematically.  (All statistics referenced after the jump courtesy Football Outsiders.)

Star-divide

Things changed dramatically for Buffalo's offense when it transitioned coordinators between 2007 and 2008.  Steve Fairchild's Bills offense utilized max protections frequently and threw more screen passes than any other NFL team while the Bills took on two of the league's toughest divisions, the AFC North and the NFC East, during the 2007 season.  Fairchild left after the year, replaced by his quarterbacks coach, Turk Schonert.  Last season, Schonert's Bills used max protection less than every other NFL team but one (Kansas City) and barely averaged one screen pass per game, one of the league's lowest.

The reason? Opponents' defensive philosphies.  While the Bills roared out to a 5-1 start, defenses continued to blitz second-year QB Trent Edwards in an effort to keep him rattled; Edwards, however, destroyed the blitz (his QB rating through the first six games was 98.8).  From that point on, teams backed off, and they did so in a big way.  Buffalo's offense faced the highest percentage of three-man rushes (12% of offensive plays) in the NFL.  Teams sent six or more pass rushers Buffalo's way on 6.2% of plays, a very low percentage that ranked the Bills No. 27 in the league.  (Even still, Buffalo surrendered 38 sacks on the year.  That should tell you something.)

Clearly, the results of playing against predominant coverage schemes were detrimental to players like Edwards and WR Lee Evans.  It had an effect on Schonert's play-calling, as well; the aforementioned dramatic drop-off in screen throws can be directly attributed to the change in defensive philosophy as well.  The same holds true for his willingness to put Jason Peters on an island and avoid max protection.

What needs (or needed) to change?
We'll quickly cover the changes that have already been made.  Buffalo needed a playmaker at receiver, and went out and got an excellent one in WR Terrell Owens.  As a point of reference, each of Buffalo's division rivals have seen huge offensive spikes in DVOA when adding a veteran difference-maker (Chad Pennington in Miami, Randy Moss in New England and Brett Favre in New York).  If Owens can provide even a portion of the spike that Pennington or Moss did for their new teams, the Bills are already in business.

The other change, obviously, was the offensive line.  Buffalo was a lowly No. 24 in the NFL in power rushing situations in 2008; it's nowhere near a surprise, therefore, that the biggest part of the O-Line revamp came directly up the middle.  The idea behind the additions of Hangartner and rookie guards Eric Wood and Andy Levitre was a more consistent presence at the point of attack.  Y'all already know about those and have discussed them ad nauseam.

From this point, Buffalo needs to find a way to effect philosophical change.  With Walker and Brad Butler moving out to tackle, Schonert needs to take a feather out of Fairchild's hat (never thought I'd say that) and be more willing to use his skill players to keep Edwards upright.  That can't happen unless teams see a reason to commit fewer defenders to coverage, which won't happen unless the arrival of Owens (and a more consistent rushing attack) allows the Bills to chew up big yardage underneath.  So many folks want to point to just Edwards, or just Schonert, or just the offensive line as the focal point of Buffalo's offensive issues; we too often overlook the fact that the unit as a cohesive whole needs to make things happen.

It starts, however, with coaching - and the Bills have taken care of business to this point.  Up next for Schonert is helping his line, finding ways to make plays, and getting his offense to a point where they don't have to settle for dink-and-dunk and can actually make plays downfield.  The players ultimately need to execute, clearly, but the responsibility first and foremost lies with Schonert.  If he can find a way to tip the scales back far enough so that the Bills see more variety from opposing defenses and have opportunities to exploit opposing secondaries with their dynamic WR duo, that'll be a start.  From there, with just a little consistency up front, the offense should be able to find a way to make it work and finally, mercifully, score some points.  (Here's a tip, Turk: dictate.  Use that no-huddle offense.  Don't take what the defense gives you.  Make the defense play the schemes you want them to play.  You've got the talent.  Make it happen, cap'n.)

2 recs  |  Comment 16 comments |

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good article

There are many facets offensively that need to come together. I think it’s inevitable that there will be struggles early in the season. I think if they can weather the early season they could have a decent year.
It’s impossible to point to one player on that side of the ball and say he is the key to the season. Obviously the QB is the easy target but they need to be put in a position to succeed.
My key offensively this year is red zone proficiency. Last year and for the last few years this team has lacked the killer instinct and has struggled getting the ball into the endzone. Lynch seems to have it, we know Owens does. The whole offense needs to adopt it. we turn a few of those FG’s into TD’s and we are talking about a couple more wins.

by gatornation on Jul 9, 2009 7:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That Edwards was so successful against blitzes leads me to think that he’ll have success with a no-huddle; his main asset seems to be his head so maximizing that seems like a good idea.

Regarding the opponents pass rush numbers, I think part of reason that the Bills faced so few pass rushers is because teams didn’t need to send pass rushers. If you’re successful getting pressure with 4, there’s no need to send more.

by Pistol on Jul 9, 2009 10:07 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Great article Brian. To summarize with a few questions:

What if teams still don’t blitz? Can this team afford to stay in max protect against 4 man rushes? And is Edwards really confident, assertive and talented enough to find the 2 really good WRs down the field when there are 7 guys in coverage, 6 blockers and one or two check down options?

by kaisertown on Jul 9, 2009 10:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think thats why the interior O-line is so important

If they sit back in that nickel umbrella we might be able to hit them with some solid draw plays, or just change formations and run up the middle on them. That is my hope, that we can run tougher and more effectively between the tackle. We have some good backs, but we need a better push. Can rookies do it? I guess thats what we’re discussing. I think Rhodes was an excellent pick up as well, concerning our up coming new strategy, He is more than just a stop gap for Lynch’s suspension in my opinion. There were times last year when a third RB could have been a big help, but none existed (sorry Omon, but its true)

The Bills CAN win any game

by killascript on Jul 9, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

exactly!

We got mean up front! Smash mouth football baby!

Your ability to control the LOS is directly linked to your ability to win football games!
FEED the BEAST!

by keysh67 on Jul 10, 2009 7:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This was an Excellent Article..

Teams will Have To adjust their defense if we can run the ball so the gelling of the O Line is paramount..Turk needs to really take charge and call plays with some imagination,not just stick to one game plan and if that doesn’t work,Oh Well attitude that he showed last year..We have the TE’s WR’s and RB’s that can generate some points,as well as help out on the blocking..Even if teams don’t blitz,they have to stay up on the line and defend the run if our line can block,other teams will have a tougher time stopping us..Not like that joke blocking that got last year..That was pathetic..I think the pieces of the puzzle are there,we just need the Line Coaches and O Coordinator to come through now..We might not be in line for a Super Bowl,but I think the playoffs are a possibility if that happens..Notice that I left Head Coaching out of this??..Not a coincidence,lol..

by FanFromThe80s on Jul 9, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Run the ball

but don’t abandon the short passing game. Jim Kelly and Andre Reed used to beat zone D’s regularly with the bread and butter short crossing route. Some creativity and flexibility in the offensive game plan is required here. Don’t be afraid to adjust, Turk.

Get the Bills back to the big game!

by Blitz on Jul 9, 2009 11:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

New weapons - new offense?

Is there any coincidence that the play calling was so unimaginative and that buffalo had only one true homerun threat? I think last yr teams took away our strong points consistently because we had very few on O. Now with some added weapons a new line and a second yr coordinator the play calling should open up… I hope

by ballinbills1315 on Jul 9, 2009 12:23 PM EDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

The offensive identity of the Bills seems to be a question mark going into this season. It’s hard to tell what the coaches are going to do. That, of course, depends on the players performance, too. It’s not really clear what we have with the exception of a handful of players. Since there’s five players in new positions on the offensive line it’s practical to say they’re the biggest concern heading into the season.

Edwards, being the quarterback and all, is obviously the lead candidate for an unproven player that’s going to have to succeed for the Bills to improve this season. However, for him to do that the line will have to perform well. We’ll need to be able to run the ball, and keep Edwards at least in playing condition. That too, starts with the offensive line.

Coaching…….that’s a whole other story.

Are we there, yet?

I want to see movies of my dreams. - Built to Spill.

by jj24 on Jul 9, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Are we there, yet?


Nope. Enjoy the ride.

Get the Bills back to the big game!

by Blitz on Jul 9, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Solid work Brian and very very accurate

We need our O-Line to gel quickly and to make some big holes for Marshawn so that teams cannot afford to put 7 deep against Lee and TO. IF we can pound the ball we can start using Play Action passes to get the ball deep and that will also allow us to keep the number of protectors down and put more people out into routes.

I think we see Fine and Walker this year joined at the hip for pretty much the whole season. That means Reed, Scuba Steve, Schouman and Hardy ALL must make plays for this team when out running the shorter routes, we cannot afford to have any of them get alligator arms because we will be down one potential pass catcher on the majority of passing downs.

(443): My mom came into my room and told me to flip off the tv. I gave it the middle finger. Note to self: STOP SMOKING THIS S#!T

-textsfromlastnight.com

by WABillsfan on Jul 9, 2009 2:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Haha, appreciated – and what the heck is wrong with y’all? :)

Buffalo Rumblings - all you care to know about the Buffalo Bills and more

by Brian Galliford on Jul 9, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

agreed

I honestly think this is one of the best run football blogs. Not only are the articles great, informative, and always imaginative, Brian you somehow manage to stay mostly unbiased which seems to be lacking in a lot of the SB blogs. Keep up the great work!

by ballinbills1315 on Jul 9, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

nothin, if you grew up in the bayous with Kyle Williams : ) In all honesty, even if it ain’t a real wordphomism, I like y’all. Just don’t see too much of it around the web.

by thejimbo on Jul 9, 2009 9:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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