Shanahan vs. Belichick 2000-2008, or "Why I want Shanahan as a coach."

Shanahan vs. Belichick eight times. Shanahan wins five times.

-Shanahan goes 3-1 with non-playoff teams. Griese is the QB for two, Plummer for one, and Cutler for the blowout loss last year.
-Shanahan goes 2-2 with playoff teams.
-Aside from scoring 7 points last year, Denver’s lowest point total was 17 (in a win). Next is 19 (in a loss). All others are 24 or better.
-Denver rushes for over 100 yards five times (3-2 record). Two losses are blowout last year, and Brady comeback in 2003 (30-26 NE win).
-In four of the games turnovers / defense play a big role in the win or loss (2008 NE win, 2005 DEN win, 2001 DEN win, 2000 NE win).
-Bad QB play accounts for 2 losses (2000 and 2008).
-All other games= average QB play. QB yards under 300, attempts under 30. 5-1 in those games.
-Denver’s blocker were of the less-than-300lbs. variety against the NE widebody DL.

Analysis: Winning not a product of the Denver talent, but of the system. Bronco playoff and non-playoff teams beat NE.

“The why”
Shanahan uses a run-first, play-action pass based version of the West Coast offense, which also relies on zone blocking. Shanahan’s offense forces the LB’s and defense overall to stay honest to the run. It’s hard to be defensively elaborate when you’re constantly playing the run. Blitzes get very basic and rare, because a bad blitz call against the run = big gainer.

Throw in the play-action, and it’s a nightmare for the defense. The LB’s are staying honest to the run. They can’t really play the TE well. The safeties have to account for the TE, meaning they can’t help both receivers (one safety vs. TE and the other in Cover 1). If they go Cover 0 with the other safety helping out one WR, you’ve got man coverage on one WR and the TE. That’s how Kanell, Griese, and Plummer can have good days against good defenses.

I’m not counting out Jauron yet, and I hope the best from him… and I can’t bring myself to want the Bills to do poorly. But, if they do, imagine what Shanahan could do with Lynch, Evans, Edwards, etc.

Stats:
2000: Broncos lose to NE, 28-19. NE sacks Brian Griese 4 times and limits run to under 100 yards. Bledsoe is QB for NE. Denver made the playoffs that year (11-5).

2001: Broncos beat NE, 31-20 at home, thanks to 21 point second half. Denver running game less than 100 yards, Griese is average, defense intercepts Brady 4 times. Denver does not make the playoffs (8-8)

2002: Broncos beat NE 24-16, with Denver up 21-7 at the half playing at NE. Denver rushes for 136 behind Portis’ 111; Griese is 18-23, modest 229 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. Denver does not make the playoffs (9-7)

2003: Denver losses 30-26 (NE TD in the 4th to take the lead). Broncos rush for 114 yards. Danny Kanell throws 16-35 for 163 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. Denver goes 10-6 and makes the playoffs.

2004: Do not play. Broncos go 10-6 and make playoffs.

2005 Regular season: Broncos win at home 28-20 (28-6 after 3 quarters). Tatum Bell and Mike Anderson rush for 178 yards. Jake Plummer goes 17-24, 262, 2 TD’s. Broncos go 13-3 and make playoffs.

2005 Playoffs: Denver leads almost the whole way, winning 27-13. Denver rushes for 96 yards, Plummer passes almost 200 yards. NE fumbles 3 times.

2006: Denver wins in NE, 17-7. Denver rushes for 144 yards, Plummer throws for 256 yards. No turnovers, no ST plays. NE just gets beat. Denver goes 9-7 and does not make playoffs.

2007: Do not play. Denver goes 7-9 and does not make playoffs.

2008: NE wins 41-7. Denver turns the ball over 5 times, rushes for over 100 yards. Cutler throws for 168 then leaves game. Denver goes 8-8 and does not make playoffs.