If he has anything less than a career season. 40 receptions for 400 yards and 2 TDs would do me just fine with our other receivers pulling in passes.

Sweet Jebus, I hope you’re right on Reed. It should help to have a balanced aerial attack. For that matter, I hope all our receivers have a career year. Trying to get everyone (6-7 legit threats on O, damn….) some touches could become a problem, provided that our QBs aren’t in body casts. But then again, that’s a good problem to have (the ball distribution thing, not the body cast thing).

That’s going to change this year.

Unless, of course, Evans and/or Owens get hurt leaving Reed once again as a starting WR. I was flummoxed when the Bills re-signed Reed. If I remember right, that was the year of the 4 year/$10 million deal—Reed, Royal, and didn’t Greer get one, too?

My issue with Reed wasn’t the money or even the lack of terrific production; it was his maddening habit of dropping easily catchable balls at critical moments in games. For the first two or so seasons Reed appeared to be a headcase. He did work his way through it and, aside from one particularly cowardly moment at the end of a loss to the Jags, has been a workmanlike WR for the Bills.

His blocking ability is probably his trademark to this point in his career. Reed is more than willing to knock heads with almost anyone, never mind his modest size. He has been a valuable asset in the run game, so much so that previous blocking schemes relied heavily on Reed to form one wall (sometimes along with Royal, sometimes just by himself—Butler and Walker crashed down towards their left to create an inverse ‘L’ with the other linemen) of a running lane.

Was he worth a second round pick? No. Of course, you can also say that about Reed’s fellow 2002 second round pick, Ryan Denney. (I needn’t remind people that the first round pick that year was a disaster and the third rounder (Coy Wire) wasn’t anything to write home about either.) Second rounders are supposed to be difference makers. Reed isn’t one of those.

Reed will definitely have a career year in terms of effectiveness and fan admiration. Drawing nickel CBs should make it even easier for Reed and Trent to pick up those 6-8 yard gainers. There will be times where Reed will be able to get open at will. Reed caught 71% of the passes thrown his way last year. Of the 79 players who had 50 or more passes thrown their way, only Wes Welker (75%), Davone Bess (72%), Anthony Gonzalez (72%), Eddie Royal (71%) and Anquan Boldin (71%) were able to match or better that number. Obviously, Reed’s short routes inflate that number, but now that he isn’t starting, that isn’t a role that can be frowned upon. If it weren’t for Wes Welker (anybody still think he’s just a product of Brady or Belichick?), Reed could lead the league in percentage of targets caught next year.

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

Statistically, it’s very unlikely that Reed has a career year. At least, he won’t if your just looking at catches and yards. Buffalo is still going to run more than most teams. And there’s only so many throws to go around. A lot of people believe that TO will make Evans and everybody elses numbers go up, but I’m not sure how that works from a math standpoint. Buffalo isn’t just going to add a 1,000 yard player while everybody elses numbers still go up. Buffalo would need to finish in the top 2 or 3 passing teams in the league for that to happen.

It’s very possible that Reed could have his best statistical year and that would be a very welcome part of the offense. I still think TO and Evans will end up with more catches, but it’s hardly out of the question for Reed to end up winning that category. With Trent’s love for throwing underneath to him and how he’ll more than likely have more room to roam, he should have some rather productive games. He would have lead the team in receptions last year if he didn’t get hurt, so the precedent may be there.

What we need most out of him is to continue doing what he does best….block when asked to, catch the underneath passes, be a checkdown for Trent and convert as many first downs as he can. I still don’t expect many TD’s, but that’s not his role. We have TO, Evans, the RB’s, the TE’s and even Johnson/Hardy to pick up the slack there. If he can give us a 60 catch-600 yard season with a couple TD’s, that’ll be a great season.

The biggest question for Reed’s production is how often he’ll be on the field. TO and Evans will be out there as often as possible, but we still don’t know how much we’ll be using 3-WR sets and the no-huddle. If Reed is on the field for 50-60+% of offensive plays, I can see him having that nice statistical year. He’s definitely going to be the glue for the no-huddle offense, IMO.

Thanks for finally putting a Reed article out there, Brian. He’s one of the most underappreciated and unfairly ridiculed players on the team. He does his job well and I’m glad someone is giving him his due! Who knew that I’d be one of his biggest supporters over the years?

agree with K on a lot. Would add more, but I’m starting the daunting task of trying to play catch-up on content today!!

I asked for more specifics yesterday on why you think Reed could catch more than TO and Evans and I get a whole article!

The only problem I have believing that Reed will catch more balls than TO and Evans is that his nice pace from last year, when K noted he would have had more than Evans, is not the same role he will have this year. If what we are seeing at camp is any indication, TO is going to gobble up passes. Evans just got a deal and Edwards will not want to upset such a good target, he will be looking for him as well. Stevie J needs to get increased reps so we don’t waste his potential and I bet Shawn Nelson lines up as a third or fourth receiver in some packages with Stevie J near the goal line or other situations.

I’m betting Josh Reed has some monster games throughout the year and then downers. 50 catches is probable, but I don’t see TO or Lee Evans dipping below 65.

Reed is what he is a tough hard nose slot receiver that will run the crossing routes , curls, provide exceptional down field blocking and do the dirty work. Yes, he has dropped passes early in his career but what WR hasn’t, the positive is he has gotten better in that department.

The player that could be in for a career year is Roscoe. If the Bills go to the no huddle and having Evans and TO on the outside the opposing defenses will have to double team one if not both. Parrish should draw a mismatch in coverage. Maybe with Evans, TO and Parrish on the field it will bring back memories of Reed, Loften and Beebe….

Josh Reed need 18 receptions to move to number 5 in the Bills all time list, assuming Lee Evens gets more catches than Reed, number 4 otherwise. This would leave him trailing Andre Reed, Eric Mould and Thurman Thomas three of the Bills greatest receivers. I think this is not bad going for anyone.

If you look at his career stats the only part that is disappointing is the number of TDs, quite an important stat i grant you, but he has been a good player for us and i think this year he will have another great year for a slot receiver.

Reed was asked to do way too much in past season regarding his skill set. I’m really looking farward to seeing him conect in the slot. Combining him with TO and Evans gives us a very promissing year.