Bills Fantasy Friday: Week 1 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em
Finally! This week marks the opening week of the NFL Fantasy Football! Today we are debuting a weekly feature aimed at suggesting how to handle any Buffalo Bills you may have on your fantasy squads. I know it's almost suicidal trying to rely on players from our beloved Bills in fantasy football, but fear not: some of them actually have potential this season! We will be taking a look at the individual players involved in each particular week's Bills game, including players on the opposition, and making educated suggestions as to whether you should be starting them or sitting them. So without further ado, welcome to Fantasy Football Friday here at Buffalo Rumblings and SB Nation. Let's dive right in after the jump.
Quarterbacks
Trent Edwards - I really don't need to tell any of you how bad Edwards was this pre-season... no touchdowns, three interceptions, 5.0 yards per attempt, 46.9 QB rating, yada yada yada. If you were planning on starting Edwards this week, bless your heart. Unless you are in a deep, multi-quarterback league, steer clear of Trent. In fact, he might not even be rosterable in most leagues. Verdict: Sit' Em in all standard leagues
Tom Brady - Grrrrr. He's back. After missing just about the entire 2008 season, Brady returns as potentially the top QB in fantasy football. With a fired up Foxboro crowd and the desire to prove he's 100% right away, Brady and the Pats offense might come out throwing over and over and over. He's routinely destroyed the Bills, averaging 230 yards per game, 2+ touchdowns and a owning a sparkling 103.3 QB rating. If the Bills' pass rush can't get to him, he should easily match those numbers. Verdict: Duh, Start 'Em in all leagues
Running Backs
Fred Jackson - With Marshawn Lynch out until October and Dominic Rhodes out of a job, Jackson will be the main ball carrier and in all likelihood will get nearly all of the touches out of the backfield. He proved last year that he was more than capable of hurting the Patriots defense when he ran for 136 yards on 27 carries. It'll be tough to repeat that performance with a brand new and quite youthful offensive line in front of him, but he is, at worst, a good flex pick. He should get at least 15-20 carries, and with the way Edwards has been playing another 4-6 receptions, so the touches will be there. In a PPR league, Jackson is much more desirable. Outside of shallow leagues, where there are likely better options available, Jackson is a nice RB2 this week. Verdict: Start 'Em
Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Corey Dillon, Antowain Smith, Leonard Russell, etc - Do Patriots fans even know what the plan is for utilizing all these guys? Like a typical Belichick team, they will be rotating backs in and out and it's highly unlikely any will see the majority of touches. It's too early in the season to have to use any of these guys outside of the deepest of leagues. I guess Faulk has some value in PPR leagues. I see Sammy Morris is listed as the starter, so he may get most of the first half carries and could see early goal line carries. He's a sleeper flex option. Verdict: Sit 'Em all
Wide Receivers
Terrell Owens - T.O. makes his regular season debut as a Buffalo Bill and he should pump some excitement, and hopefully production, into the Bills offense. He's going to be fired up with a lot to prove. I'd imagine Owens will be looking to show everyone he's healthy, still productive at 35, still the highlight reel performer we've been accustom to and ready to roll in prime time. Just a hunch, he'll want to show Dallas what they are missing out on. I expect Owens to have a big game....if Edwards can get it to him. He's still a must start WR each week. Verdict: Start 'Em
Lee Evans - Evans on the other hand is hardly a must start each week. Most fantasy players will consider him one of the most frustrating WR's in the league, and it's hard to argue that with his inconsistent production each year. With Owens opposite him, Evans should see a lot less double and rolled coverage, so the opportunities should be there. The team will be looking to get it downfield more and there's no better option in the league for that. He's always struggled against the Patriots, having never scored a touchdown against them and averaging just 37 yards per game. The concern is there, but the Patriots questionable secondary is ripe for the picking. Evans is a good WR3 pick this week, with upside to put up pretty big numbers, especially if the Bills' offense is able to get the no-huddle in gear. Verdict: Start 'Em in deeper leagues or as a flex option
Josh Reed, Steve Johnson, Roscoe Parrish - Don't even consider starting of these guys unless you have a team of only Bills players. Verdict: What do you think?
Randy Moss - I think Moss will be the top WR in fantasy again this year. With Brady back, his numbers will go up from last year, when they weren't that bad anyhow. I doubt he'll return to his 2007 statistical form, but 1,300+ yards and 15+ touchdowns are extremely realistic. You obviously roll with Moss every week. Verdict: Start' Em
Wes Welker - Will he play? Is his injury signficant? Is he injured at all? There are a lot of question marks and a lack of knowledge about Welker right now. He was limited in practice Thursday, so that might not be encouraging for Patriots and fantasy fans. Keep an eye on the Patriots injury report, although it's unlikely Belichick will let anything slip out. It's going to be risky going with Welker this week because you won't be able to swap him out for another player unless that player happens to play Monday night. In PPR leagues, Welker is gold and just might be worth the risk in all leagues. I'd have to believe he gives it a go. Verdict: Start 'Em
Joey Galloway - If Welker is ruled out early enough for you to make the move, Galloway would be a sneaky option. It looks like he'd get the start as the 2nd WR and could be in a line for a pretty good day. Verdict: Sit 'Em unless Welker is ruled out.
Tight Ends
Derek Schouman, Derek Fine, Shawn Nelson - Do not start any of these guys. Do not even consider it. Until Trent proves he throws to any of them consistently, there is no point in even owning them. There are a number of other options available at TE on a weekly basis; go with one of them. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Benjamin Watson, Chris Baker - Both are better options than the Bills' TE's, but neither are starting fantasy options. Steer clear. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Kickers
Rian Lindell - Lindell is a solid fantasy option because of the Bills' inability to reach the endzone, and might be worth consideration this week. I'd rather go with a kicker from a better offense though. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Stephen Gostkowski - He led the NFL in scoring last year. Gostkowski is a no-brainer start at the kicker position weekly. Verdict: Start 'Em
Defenses
Bills defense/special teams - This is a terrible matchup for this unit. They might be a spot start later in the season, but this is not one of those games. Verdict: Sit 'Em
Patriots defense/special teams - Despite their questionable status, the Patriots defense is probably one of the better options this week. With a mistake prone Edwards looking to rebound from a terrible season and a Bills' OL still trying to find its footing, the Patriots defense could be in line for a good number of stat accumulators. Verdict: Start 'Em
Sleeper Options
Bills - Do they really have any sleeper options? I guess I'll go with Fred Jackson simply because he's only a borderline starter in most leagues. I expect him to have a very efficient and productive game.
Patriots - Joey Galloway and Laurence Maroney - If Welker is out, Galloway becomes a pretty good spot start for all leagues. And in case the Patriots do get up big (please no!), I have a hunch we might see a lot of Maroney in the second half. That's just a gut feeling. With Morris likely to play with a hand injury and Fred Taylor being so old, Maroney would be my guess for the guy who gets the garbage time carries.
*******
There you have, your Week 1 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em for the Bills vs. Patriots. You can use this as your end of the week fantasy open thread. Enjoy all the games this weekend!
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43 comments
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Comments
Nice post, K. Very useful stuff.
I sure hope GoBruce gets to read this. I think he drafted a Bills player in every round in BR League 4! Naturally, we all want him to win the league!!!!
"Don't I know you?"
"Nah, that ain't me, man. I'm from Buffalo"
by SamUK on Sep 11, 2009 7:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rooting for the Bills for other reasons
When it comes to Fantasy Football that is. I would sacrifice the fantasy thing if the Bills would win and make the playoffs though, but I do have T.O., Marshawn and Freddy to play weeks 1-3. I have Bills D as well, but they rode the bench this week. Titans scored me 25 points last night!!!!!!!!!
by JTM1023 on Sep 11, 2009 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you have Tennessee, I’m thinking Buffalo’s D will be riding the pine except for the Titans bye week…
"Potential just means you haven’t done sh## yet"
by willgarr15 on Sep 11, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I’m playing him this week. A little torn on how I should be rooting for the Bills this week (yeah, I just said that). He’s got Fred Jackson, T.O., Evans, Josh Reed, and Lindell starting this week. And he’s got Trent, Marshawn, and the Bills D on his bench.
So easy Marshawn Lynch can do it.
by thatguy34 on Sep 11, 2009 8:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is when fantasy football becomes rediculous to me. You route for your favorite team, regardless how many of them you “play” against.
Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.
by TheAfghanTwilight on Sep 11, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
heh - i need to proof before i post...
ridiculous
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Sep 11, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
route/root… I knew what you meant, and I make enough mistakes I can’t make fun of anybody for that kind of stuff….well except for maybe CBF.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
by sireric on Sep 11, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My job is as a writer / editor. When it comes to me, I can’t let it slip. =)
Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.
by TheAfghanTwilight on Sep 11, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is why I have Brian. Whenever I post something I count on him to catch all my screw-ups….I keep him on his toes.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
by sireric on Sep 11, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha. This has nothing to do with the stellar work that you, Matt, K, Ron, et al put together, but hot damn, there is nothing I hate more in the world than editing.
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Sep 11, 2009 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but..but…you’re so good at it.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
by sireric on Sep 11, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We make mistakes?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Sep 11, 2009 11:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking Matt making mistakes more than you or me.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
by sireric on Sep 11, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt pulling MRW’s more than the rest of us combined!
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Sep 12, 2009 12:12 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Not in my articles guys. I bet it’s nearly impossible to edit Ron’s stuff since they are so long and factual. (and the circle of the blame game continues.)
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.
by MattRichWarren on Sep 12, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
and “root”
Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.
by TheAfghanTwilight on Sep 11, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is what fantasy football does. I root for the Bills to win, but I root for Xavier Omon, the Bills defense/special teams, or a TE to score a TD.
But realize that for the most part, I’m making these statements tongue-in-cheek, and while I like winning in fantasy, when it really comes down to it, I’ll take a Bills win over a fantasy football win any day of the week.
So easy Marshawn Lynch can do it.
by thatguy34 on Sep 11, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Playing free fantasy football makes it so much more enjoyable. You don’t really care if your favorite team lights your fantasy team up.
Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.
by TheAfghanTwilight on Sep 11, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
free fantasy football
True. Unfortunately, being the degenerate that I am, I feel it necessary to place money on a lot of things that probably could be enjoyed without any action.
So easy Marshawn Lynch can do it.
by thatguy34 on Sep 11, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Starting Lee Evans on my team. Sitting Trent in favor of Aaron Rodgers.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.
by MattRichWarren on Sep 11, 2009 7:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Did playing Trent over Aaron Rodgers ever enter your mind?
by Berg79 on Sep 11, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trent has more WR options (in my opinion) and maybe a bit less to depend on in the running game. I’d have given it thought too.
Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.
by TheAfghanTwilight on Sep 11, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't have thought about it at all
Rodgers>Trent every week
Jennings>TO, Evans
Driver and Evans are rather comparable in fantasy, with Driver more consistent
Nelson and Martin are better options for GB than Reed and Johnson in terms of big play potential
GB’s TE are much, much, much better receivers than ours now.
Plus, GB has a better OL
I don’t know how anyone could even consider Trent over Rodgers especially after watching their preseasons…
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Sep 11, 2009 1:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
No.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.
by MattRichWarren on Sep 11, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice job, but...
Did you tell even the average fantasy player anything revealing here?
I traded Edwards yesterday, leaving me with just P. Manning at QB and no backup. If Trent plays great this year, I’ll easily live with my decision. But I wasn’t going to allow him to screw up both my fantasy team AND any hopes I have for the Bills.
The Dick Jauron version of the K-Gun...the Squirt Gun.
by ChipShot on Sep 11, 2009 8:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It doesn’t to Bills fans, probably, but it’s linked by SBN under the fantasy section with everyone else’s.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.
by MattRichWarren on Sep 11, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like it.
Love the Fantasy Friday post. I’m starting Jackson on one team. ESPN is projecting 22 points out of him. I think that is a little high but I’d love to see it. I picked up Edwards as a Back up for a buck in auction drafts. Hoping he becomes the ultimate sleeper!
Why not Bobby April?
by nickdaniels on Sep 11, 2009 9:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
should i start evans over the following wr's i have...
Harvin @ Cle, Holt @ Ind, Coles vs Den or Bruce @ Ari?
by dragonwag0n on Sep 11, 2009 10:14 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
How many WR’s do you start?
So easy Marshawn Lynch can do it.
by thatguy34 on Sep 11, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
3
I’ve already got Roddy White and Reggie Wayne starting, I just need a good 3rd.
by dragonwag0n on Sep 11, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If it’s your 3rd, he’s not a bad start. Coles might be worth a look though. He’s going to be a great red zone target for Palmer.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Sep 11, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Coles, but I would consider Holt. He should be the top receiving target for Garrard.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
by sireric on Sep 11, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed. I’d go with Holt.
So easy Marshawn Lynch can do it.
by thatguy34 on Sep 11, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I might go with Bruce. Against AZ, they’ll probably need to throw and score a lot. With only Josh Morgan as another viable WR threat there, Bruce could put up some nice numbers this week…
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Sep 11, 2009 12:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for the input guys, im gonna think about it for the next day or so, i dont have to have rosters in until 10 am monday. I do think im leaning towards harvin against clevelands lackluster secondary, plus Berrian’s injury. Also i think Favre will try to make an impression against his former coach. I dont know how well Bruce will do against Rogers-Cromartie, i think they will run the ball with gore/coffee/robinson and try to controll the clock.
by dragonwag0n on Sep 11, 2009 12:49 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Is Berrian not playing?
Twitter: helping to make anti-social people anti-socially social.
by TheAfghanTwilight on Sep 11, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hes playing, but i read hes not 100% and him and favre werent on the same page yet.
by dragonwag0n on Sep 11, 2009 1:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
arguably...
Favre was only ever on the same page with Sterling Sharpe and Donald Driver.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Sep 11, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll sit Berrian on my team. Even playing against Cleveland he never was fully healthy this offseason. Maybe he won’t see the field very much this week.
by hightower_mc on Sep 11, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Berrian’s just a deep threat. Either he’ll catch a long pass or he won’t. I don’t think I would play him either. Favre should have enough sense to not launch a long bomb into coverage once Cleveland is already up a couple TDs on long Peterson runs.
by kaisertown on Sep 11, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Favre should have enough sense to not launch a long bomb into coverage once Cleveland is already up a couple TDs on long Peterson runs.
I assume you meant Minny not Cleveland, I also hope you realize how silly that assumption is.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
by sireric on Sep 11, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice work K
These early weeks on fantasy will be a little weird. We still looking how teams and players will be involved. Every tip could help this moment. Good job K.
by hightower_mc on Sep 11, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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