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Patriots Week: Chatting Belichick and strategy with Pats Pulpit

In case you hadn't heard, the Buffalo Bills have made a lot of changes offensively this off-season, and particularly within the past week.  The quick recap: brand new starting offensive line; Terrell Owens; cutting Langston Walker; swapping offensive coordinators.  The end result of all of that change, at least as it pertains to what we've seen in the pre-season and the Bills' upcoming Monday Night Football matchup with New England, is that no one is quite certain what to expect from this Bills offense.

Patriots Week rolls on, as we sit down for the fifth time with MaPatsFan, lead blogger over at Pats Pulpit.  Today's topic is a bit ambiguous, considering that I literally asked MaPatsFan to try to read Bill Belichick's mind.  Still, our friendly Pats blogger offered up some cogent theories on how Belichick might choose to attack Buffalo's new-look offense.  His thoughts, with my responses, are after the jump.

Star-divide

Rumblings: In the past, Patriots players - forgive my lack of memory, but I believe it was FB Heath Evans - have mentioned that Bill Belichick always prepares for a Bills game with a different plan.  Knowing that, and knowing what you know about the Bills, how do you think "Hoodie," as you call him, might attack Buffalo on Monday, particularly with his shiny new 4-3 defense?

Pulpit: Being division rivals, I think it's safe to say we know each other's teams better than we know any of our other opponents.  That being said, it's paramount we mix things up a bit.  Defensively, I've been thinking there will be a bit of a twist: less 4-3 than we all think.  Or, at the very least, a disguised 4-3.  Why?  Buffalo employs this scheme.  Trent Edwards and company see it every day at practice and, I think it's safe to say, know the inner workings of it.  I'm almost certain Belichick will work hard to employ different looks, trying to confuse Edwards.

One such look is something the Patriots affectionately call the "speed package."  It's a 1-4-6 with one down lineman, 4 linebackers and 6 defensive backs, a variation of the dime package.  They've also been known to use a 2-4-5 alignment or modified nickel package.  Obviously, the nickel and dime packages are strongest during passing situations, which brings me to my next point: T.O.

Clearly, Owens is a guy you can't forget about.  He'll hurt you in so many ways.  It's not coincidental that CB Shawn Springs was brought on board about the same time T.O. came to your Bills.  Springs and Owens have a long history together, and some even say Springs has Owens' number.  That remains to be seen.  If that's the case, I think Jauron is smart enough to move T.O. around, to keep him away from Springs and neutralize that perceived advantage.

Belichick is considered a defensive genius in league circles for knowing exactly how to attack an opponents' weakness with his defense.  I think MaPatsFan is completely accurate here saying that one of Belichick's priorities will be to give multiple looks to Edwards and not allow him to get comfortable reading the defense.  As has been pointed out, the Patriots are using a 4-3, but they would be insane to rely on that scheme the entire game.  They can get different looks onto the field, and put in different packages, without exposing their razor-thin linebacker corps.

What MaPatsFan missed, in my opinion - though it is certainly alluded to - is the fact that Belichick is likely to send the house after Edwards on many, many occasions.  Why wouldn't he? The Bills have an offensive line that will be communicating with each other in a live setting for the first time - and their quarterback may or may not be able to accurately diagnose where a blitz is coming from.  Even though Edwards has shown a propensity to make plays against the blitz in the past, it's still by far the best way for Belichick to expose the Bills' biggest weaknesses and keep the ball out of the hands of Buffalo's skill players, particularly Owens.  It seems relatively simple because it is.  Belichick is a genius, but he won't need to outsmart himself for this one.

You'd have to imagine that this is precisely what Dick Jauron and Alex Van Pelt are looking for as well.  Look for them to have a few called screens early to try to take advantage of Belichick's probable aggressiveness - unless, of course, Belichick expects that and sits his defense back to throw us off.  Isn't coaching against Belichick fun?

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I know the Bills are trying to boost Bells’ confidence going into his first NFl game, but blocking pillows seems a little silly to me. He is giving that pillow the business, though. Go Demetrius!!!

"I call him Scuba Steve. I also call him Stevie Wonder. Pretty soon, I shall call him Scuba Wonder." - B.G.

by jj24 on Sep 11, 2009 10:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He’s actually holding onto a big bean bag. I know you were kidding. :-)

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.

by MattRichWarren on Sep 12, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He’s actually holding onto a big bean bag.

TWSS

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Sep 12, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess….

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.

by MattRichWarren on Sep 13, 2009 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m almost certain Belichick will work hard to employ different looks, trying to confuse Edwards.

This where the no-huddle comes into play. If we can keep them from changing personnel, then we have a better chance of dictating play. Also, we have to be able to run the ball very effectively. Lastly, Trent needs to make solid adjustments at the line. Do that, and we’re good. ;)

"I call him Scuba Steve. I also call him Stevie Wonder. Pretty soon, I shall call him Scuba Wonder." - B.G.

by jj24 on Sep 11, 2009 10:44 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good point

Not being able to change personnel will effect any game plan.

Quick question speaking of defensive packages. Does anyone expect us to run the “Creep” defense?

Why not Bobby April?

by nickdaniels on Sep 11, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No Huddle is both a blessing AND a curse.

If you rely on it exclusively, then you can’t change you’re personnel either for situational football, say 4th and 1. As soon as you substitute, league rules say we get equal time to substitute.

Also the Pats can switch between the 3-4 and 4-3 in various groupings without substitution.

No Huddle is a powerful tool, but it is not a panacea.

The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Sep 11, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you rely on it exclusively, then you can’t change you’re personnel either for situational football, say 4th and 1.

Why would we want to substitute and let the tired defense off the field? It’s better to get to the line and run a quick running play. A dive or qb sneak, for example. The Pats run the sneak with Brady all the time in those situations, and it works wonderfully.

"I call him Scuba Steve. I also call him Stevie Wonder. Pretty soon, I shall call him Scuba Wonder." - B.G.

by jj24 on Sep 11, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It is if you are trying to run a 1-4-6. Fred Jackson will be in during the no huddle as will our TE, Derek Schouman. Schou has lined up in the backfield so there may not be a reason to substitute in… bu you guys will only have a guy like Wilfork in with a bunch of DBs. I like our chances on that 4th and 1.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.

by MattRichWarren on Sep 12, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Watch the substitions.

They will have them lined up on the sideline, waiting for the whistle to blow from the previous play. The whistle means go. He will have them prepared we will need to counter the substitions with different looks.

Only Real Men Wear Red, White, and Blue.

by VanScottM on Sep 11, 2009 10:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Version of the 4-3

While some comments have led me to believe that the Pats are playing a straight 40 front, I tend to think that they will play a 40 over. Wilfork is still at the nose, with Brace/Wright at RE and Warren at LE, both playing 5 tech.

Burgess is technically the ROLB, but would play like Ware, down in a 3 point stance and rushing almost all downs. Guyton and Mayo play normal at ILB’s, and Thomas at Sam.

I think this because it’s a variation of the 3-4, which has worked against the Bills in the past. I doubt Belichick would deviate so far away from a defense that he knows works against us. That said, I expect to see many base sets used.

by Der Jaeger on Sep 11, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That’s exactly how I see it. It’s going to be essentially a 3-4, with Burgess moving around to confuse the Bills’ line. Since the Pats’ personnel are well-accustomed to a 3-4 and it works so devastating well against Buffalo, why wouldn’t they use it most of the time? One thing we can take to the bank: Belichick’s overriding objective is going to be putting pressure on the center and left side of the Bills’ line, since that is where you have two players seeing their first NFL action. He is going to figure that Hangartner and Levitre represent the greatest point of weakness, along with Bell, and make his big push there. The success of the offense in scoring TD’s is not going to depend on whether Trent can find T.O. so much as the prior question of whether the center and left side of the o-line can withstand the fierce assault Belichick is going to direct at them.

by Macktruck on Sep 11, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree...

I think that the Pats will overload the left side on some plays, trying to get a free blitzer, but I think they will be setting up Butler and Wood, but faking an all out blitz on the left side and instead run a zone blitz, overloading the right side…

by NorCal BillsFan on Sep 11, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

All I know is that we on the offensive side of the football need to get really creative to make sure that it’s not Belichick, who prevail against us as usual. First and foremost, we need to be able to run the football. A lot of people expect us to air it out against the Pats, but I really believe that the key to winning the game (on offense, at least) lies in getting Fred Jackson going. I feel very comfortable running behind Wood and Butler, who’re both ferocious run-blockers, and who should be able to capitalize upon the fact that the Pats no longer have their, arguably, best defensive football player (not named Wilfork) on the team.
Another way, in which we imo. should attack the Pats offensively, is by using a lot of draws (and for the love of God, avoid running up the middle, where Wilfork is) and screens to Fred or Roscoe and let them get behind our very athletic O-line.
The third thing to implore, if you ask me, is to utilize Owens’ many capabilities, especially as far as drawing double-coverage, to our advantage (by that I mean letting Lee get one-on-one with any Patriots CB and see who can remotely follow his incredible burst).

I’m by no means saying that if we do those things, we’ll de facto beat the Patriots. What I’m essentially saying is that if we do these suggested things, we’ll stand a far greater chance of challenging the Patriots, but that’s just my two cents.

by BillsfanfromDenmark on Sep 11, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good points

Like Moss, Owens needs to be doubled. Both these guys are almost as valuable as decoys as they are as receivers. None of the Pats’ corners have shown me the skills necessary to track a guy like Lee. If Edwards gets some time in the backfield, it could be a long day for my Patriots.

Blogger at SBNation's Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit

by MaPatsFan on Sep 11, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What MaPatsFan missed, in my opinion – though it is certainly alluded to – is the fact that Belichick is likely to send the house after Edwards on many, many occasions. Why wouldn’t he?

I think it’s more likely that the Pats will not blitz a lot.

  • Last year, the Bills had success early when teams tried to blitz them. Later in the year they sat back and had success.
  • It’s a young, inexperienced OL. The Pats should be talented enough to generate a pass rush with 3 to 4 rushers against a green OL and have everyone else sit back in coverage.

The Pats will almost assuredly mix it up, but I think the number of blitzes will be minimal. I think they’ll just sit back and play soft (that is, not blitzing) and wait for the Bills to make a mistake. Right now there isn’t a lot of reason to think the Bills can pull out sustained drives, and then punch it in in the red zone. But if the Pats blitz Evans or Owens might be able to get deep, or break a quick slant a long way.

by Pistol on Sep 11, 2009 11:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Use a few draw plays against 7 and 8 defenders in coverage. The Giants went toe-to-toe with the Pats by pounding the rock. Once they made NE play honest run defense, then they were able to pass more effectively. The point is: Take advantage of what New England does defensively and make them pay. This younger, nastier O-line should be able to open some holes for Fred Jackson.

Pass defense has been Hoodie’s forte for a long, long time. Make him fear the running game as well. Just don’t be so predictable that the fans watching the game can tell what the Bills offense is going to do next on nearly every play.

Get the Bills back to the big game!

by Blitz on Sep 11, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Defensively, if the pass rush can’t make Brady miserable, then our D-line should be trying to get their hands in Brady’s throwing lanes to mess him up. We all are pretty familiar by now with the 3-step drop and quick pass routine NE uses. That means the D-line should make it tougher for Brady to get the ball to his receivers by getting their arms up into his passing lanes. They are closer to him when he drops back 3 steps than when he uses 5 or 7, so they should be able to clog up more area that he needs to throw the ball through to get to Moss and Co.

I’m not sure that all made sense, but in my mind it’s fairly clear anyway.

Get the Bills back to the big game!

by Blitz on Sep 11, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ah, if only we have adequate run-blocking. That is going to be the big question going into this game. It would be great to pound the rock against Belichick, but can the guys up front open the holes and alleys?

by Macktruck on Sep 11, 2009 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

springs does not own owens

in games owens has gone up against springs he has averaged 7 rec. 90 yds. and 1.5 td’s i will gladly take those same numbers monday night

by LIBi on Sep 11, 2009 12:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow, really? I thought I’d heard the TO/Springs thing before…I wonder where that came from?

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Sep 11, 2009 1:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Spring VS TO

Springs and TO have simply been going against each other for several years, twice a year…they know each others games well…Springs has not owned TO though, actually it was more the other way around, but either way, their are both great players at their respective positions and the battle will be fun to watch.

by NorCal BillsFan on Sep 11, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, they’ve just been playing each other a ton. Springs had some success on him early in their careers, but TO has owned him, especially in Dallas.

by kaisertown on Sep 11, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, Chris Brown pointed out:

His biggest day came in 2007 when Owens posted eight catches for 173 yards and four touchdowns in a 28-23 Dallas win over Washington. Still he has respect for the Patriots new veteran cornerback.

by jj24 on Sep 11, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don’t forget that the Sharpie thing happened on a TD scored against Springs.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.

by MattRichWarren on Sep 12, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think it’s more likely that the Pats will not blitz a lot.

I too, believe they will not bring the blitz as often as some may think. I hope our line will hold up against their 3 or 4 rushers, but as was said earlier, they won’t have too hard of a time getting in the backfield.

by Schooled You on Sep 11, 2009 12:55 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Weapons

We talk about the mistakes that we may make but I think the question is can we capitalize when other teams make them. I feel that has been our weakness. We have the weapons to do so…….can we make teams pay?

by MikeEverett08 on Sep 11, 2009 12:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wilfork

Guys, I think we have all seen this movie before…..the key to are offense having success is to make sure V. Wilfork is not commanding triple teams on ever play, double teams fine but when his allowing there outside rushers to just go one on one with are tackles history shows it hasn’t been good….I’m more concerned with are interior line then with the tackles you can always chip with a backer and/or leave a TE to double but when we get manhandled up the middle we haven’t had much success…..come on buff answer my prayers just once before I die

There is a I in Bills!

by Moe_frm_B_ on Sep 11, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Dude, don’t aim too low with that prayer. Super Bowl or bust….

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.

by MattRichWarren on Sep 12, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

minimal blitzing, I think

Being a longtime Pats fan, the general MO of BB on defense is to take away whatever it is our opponent most wants to do (i.e. what they are best at doing), and make them beat us with option #2 (and #3 and #4…etc).

With Lynch suspended, there is no doubt in my mind that the passing game to T.O. (and, to a lesser but still very real extend, Lee Evans) is what BB is thinking the Bills want to do in this game. Which means he is going to do whatever he possibly can to take that away. So how does he do that?

Two options (in general):

1. Blitz like the blazes and hope to get to Edwards before Edwards can get the ball to those WR’s; or,
2. Sit back and double-cover, zone+man, whatever, basically put as many defensive bodies back in the secondary trying to keep TO and Evans under wraps and forcing Edwards to have pinpoint accuracy if he is going to hit them.

My guess is BB doesn’t think Edwards is a good enough QB to accomplish #2. So I predict we rarely blitz, we sit back in a very cautious defense, and basically say to Buffalo: if you want to beat us, you need to do it either running the ball without your #1 RB, or else throwing the ball to someone other than TO and Evans.

To be honest, I don’t really know the Bills well enough to even know who your #3 WR or your top pass-catching TE is, but whoever those guys are, I think they are the ones (along with Fred Jackson) who are going to determine the outcome of the Bills offense on Monday night.

by JohnPaul on Sep 11, 2009 5:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

A very good post, JohnPaul, and I think you’re quite right about your assessment of the Patriots plan going in to this game defensively. Trent is a very, very good QB against the blitz, just look at last year, but he tends to struggle, when defenses take seven or eight back in coverage and he has to find the open target. That only means that we need to effectively be able to run the football with Fred and Xavier, which isn’t going to be a bed of roses (with players like Wilfork, Warren, Jarvis Green and rookie Ron Brace).

by BillsfanfromDenmark on Sep 12, 2009 6:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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