Buffalo Rumblings: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: RSL Soapbox for Real Salt Lake Fans!

Bills will need to air it out in New England

Photo

More photos » by David Duprey - AP

Hey! Did you hear that the Buffalo Bills are playing the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football? That happens in a hair over two days' time, folks.  Whether the Bills or their fans are prepared or not, the 2009 NFL regular season is about to begin - perhaps in brutal fashion in Western New York.

Knowing how these Bills/Patriots have unfolded in the past - i.e. the Bills have been playing from behind far more frequently than not - it's not exactly a stretch to say that the Bills will be throwing the ball a lot in this particular matchup, either.  Add in other factors, such as personnel and injuries, and the likelihood skyrockets.  Trent Edwards' right arm should be sore Tuesday morning, even if he avoids hits - and, perhaps unfortunately, putting the ball in the air is by far the Bills' best chance to pull off a huge upset.

The isolation of Fred Jackson
Much has been made about the fact that in his last game against New England, RB Fred Jackson - starting in place of suspended starter Marshawn Lynch - rushed for 136 yards on 27 carries.  Somehow, I sincerely doubt that Bill Belichick and the few Patriot defenders that remain with the team from last year have forgotten that impressive performance.  Jackson will be the first player that Belichick will try to erase from this game.

Star-divide

Considering Buffalo's depth and skill at receiver, Belichick will almost certainly concentrate resources early on eliminating Jackson and the running game from the equation, putting all of the pressure on Edwards to win the game.  One-dimensional offenses are dreams come true for opponents.  Given the fact that the Bills' two backup runners, Xavier Omon and Corey McIntyre, have a combined six career NFL carries, Belichick doesn't need to worry about seeing waves of fresh runners.  Jackson will get all of the work, and Belichick knows it.

That doesn't, however, mean that Jackson will be ineffective - just keyed on.  He'll still have opportunities to make plays if the run is stopped - but, obviously, he'll need to do it through the air.

The hamstring of Derek Fine
Many won't factor this into their thinking, but the likely DNP for TE Derek Fine is significant in this game.  The Bills only employ two tight ends aside from Fine - Derek Schouman and Shawn Nelson.  Nelson, a rookie out of Southern Miss, is expected to see the bulk of his playing time in red zone situations and from the slot, where his biggest assets (size, speed, hands) are put to best use, and where his biggest weaknesses (in-line blocking) are a non-factor.

Without Fine, and with Nelson's inexperience blocking factored in, the number of two tight end sets the Bills can run in New England dwindles significantly.  Buffalo, in years past, has used two tight ends in most of their run fronts.  Without that extra in-line blocker - and without McIntyre's natural fullback position being a significant part of the offense - Buffalo will be running from one-back, three-wide sets frequently, which is difficult to do.  Once again, this increases the chances of throwing on a play-by-play basis.

Getting your best players on the field
Given the lack of depth at running back and tight end, easily the deepest and most gifted skill position for the Bills is, obviously, wideout.  Much will be made of Lee Evans and Terrell Owens heading into this game.  A key decision to make, however, is which secondary personnel to put on the field to keep defenses honest in covering Evans and Owens (and, to an extend, keeping an eye on Jackson as well).

Nelson will see work.  Omon will see some carries as well, just to keep Jackson as fresh as possible.  But their snaps will be severely limited, as they should be, because players like Josh Reed, Roscoe Parrish and Steve Johnson are, quite simply, better football players.  Buffalo doesn't have a chance at winning this game if they don't get the ball into the hands of their best players.  In this particular instance, players like Reed, Parrish, Johnson and even Nelson will need to make chain-moving plays to sustain drives.  They won't be doing so unless the ball is thrown.  Jackson, too, has that capability, but if he can't do it on the ground, he'll need to do it through the air.

You see where we're going with this.  Everything, seemingly, dictates that the ball will be thrown early and often - and that's without mentioning the fact that the Patriots, with their potent offense, have a strong chance at grabbing an early lead.  The no-huddle offense may be Buffalo's one saving grace, no matter what Ron Jaworski believes.

The no-huddle factor
Evaluating all of the above, it's easy to see why Dick Jauron has been interested in the no-huddle.  Everything above are things that the Bills, in reality, cannot control.  Their personnel hand has been forced.  The no-huddle offense puts some of that control back into their hands.

It's risky.  The no-huddle would need to function nearly perfectly, and it would need to do so in a quick, yet time-occupying manner.  Ideally, the Bills will keep the ball out of New England's hands as long as possible; in order to do that, they need to sustain drives.  The quick pace is the only way they can force New England into anything, particularly exhaustion, and more importantly, it might be their only chance at keeping the offense balanced.  We all know what will happen if the plan backfires - the exact opposite of what the Bills would like to do.

I mentioned earlier this week that Edwards, entering his make-or-break season, is necessarily under a ton of pressure simply because of the position he plays.  That pressure amplifies any time you play a tough opponent on a national stage, and it will only grow further if the Bills are forced to throw early and often.  We'll see if the no-huddle attack can abate some of that pressure.

0 recs  |  Comment 33 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Monday Night you say?

I can’t believe it’s only two days away. Win or lose, I’m pumped that football is back.

Also… I believe the Bills can win this game. The realist in me says they won’t, but the fan in me says with TO on the field, they have the potential to keep pace with the New England offense.

by Mark Parisi on Sep 12, 2009 2:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I am a cock-eyed Bills fan too,

but I don’t know if I can bring myself to start thinking that they can win this week. As Brian points out, one of the keys may be the ability of Reed, Johnson and Parrish to make some significant plays. Throw in some special teams dominance and a few turnovers from the D, and it could be close (provided, of course, that the O doesn’t toss too many turnovers the Pats way.)

by Gino Parilli on Sep 12, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i would also say

that while Brian’s piece highlights why we may have to pass often, it also highlights the challenges that New England’s new look defense will face. The fact is, the Pats defense has been largely overhauled and are therefore inexperienced and not as familiar with our team as previous units. Our receiver talent and depth, when used in a hurry up offense, in which we are passing a lot, could be too much for the Pats secondary and linebackers to handle. Sure Jackson is our only runner but with a stable of targets (Reed, Evans, Owens, Nelson, Jackson, Johnson, Parrish and even Schouman) I’d be willing to bet that if our passing game clicks and the no huddle works at a good clip, there will be a lot of confusion on the defensive side of the ball as they try to key on where the ball is going.

I really do think we have a chance.

Jonathan Stupar played Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun and won.

by poz on Sep 12, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My biggest worry when it comes to this game is Jauron. The Patriots can be beaten if they are attacked on both sides of the ball. Brady is only human, and we all saw how frustrated he was at the Giants’ pass rush in the Super Bowl. Buffalo needs to attack, attack, attack, on both sides of the ball from the first snap. If they do, they’ve got a shot.

But attacking is not our head coach’s style. A conservative gameplan Monday night will be the kiss of death.

by Mark Parisi on Sep 12, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My main worry is edwards

He scares me because the second half of last season, he didn’t even show flashes of the guy he was in the first half, and I’ve seen JP Losman go from a top 10 QB to Las Vegas. I worry the same mental collapse has happened to Edwards.

Stupar 2012!

by JPH on Sep 12, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Very valid point

If he’s lost the confidence to command the game rather than just take the safe pass, it won’t matter what the game plan is.

by Mark Parisi on Sep 12, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

AVP, Lee Evans, and other guys say Edwards biggest improvement since last year is he has more confidence… just sayin

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.

by MattRichWarren on Sep 13, 2009 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure hasn’t looked like it on the field….

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Sep 13, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just relayin’ information.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.

by MattRichWarren on Sep 13, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Same old same old

Jauron against an attacking coach never ends well. Jauron against good/great teams never ends well either…

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Sep 12, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Bills send waves of blitzers at every QB. They don’t get there enough and Brady is adept at getting the ball out of his hands. Fewell (Jauron) can send the blitzers, it’s up to the rest of the guys to finish the job.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.

by MattRichWarren on Sep 13, 2009 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How many points do you think the bills will need to score to win the game?

I’m thinking between 30-35. Add in pressure from the Aarons, Mitchell blitzing, and great DB play, I really think thats thr formula it will take to beat the patriots.

by dragonwag0n on Sep 12, 2009 2:40 PM EDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

totally agree

I would say 30-31 makes us safe. I really think the game will be close and that the Pats will be rusty. So I’m expecting between 21-28 pts for them.

Jonathan Stupar played Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun and won.

by poz on Sep 12, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yikes – rusty Pats put up 3-4 TDs – that about the best we’ve seen the Bills put up.

"We want to win immediately. To say you're building is an incomplete sentence. ... You're building for a future coach and general manager."
-Marv Levy

by TEMSON on Sep 12, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Unless we’re playing the Cardinals.

by karovda on Sep 12, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jaworski is right, though

His observation that the biggest problem for the Bills during the preseason was a lack of communication resulting from the no-huddle strikes me as right on target. This is a very young o-line and offense, and they need the chance to talk with each other between plays. As Jaworski points out, that’s something that routinely happens on NFL teams. For the Bills, however, they are not getting that opportunity, since they are heading right up to the LOS to start the next play. It’s a HUGE worry. Lets hope it doesn’t impact the pass protection or air game on Monday night, but it’s not hard to imagine how it could and, as a result, completely undercut the strategy Brian is so sensibly laying out here..

by Macktruck on Sep 12, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree, but I can see it the other way too

Maybe part of the appeal of the no-huddle is that you eliminate a lot of the thinking for the O-Line. They don’t get assignments, then spend 30 seconds pondering them. There are a couple snap reads before the play begins, and then they just put their head down and go.

I don’t believe what I just typed, but I can imagine that argument could be made.

Stupar 2012!

by JPH on Sep 12, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed. The no-huddle has to function like a finely-tuned, well-oiled machine. I don’t know if this unit has the experience (or confidence) to make it work yet. But we can hope.

My big concern is the running game. We didn’t see it in the pre-season. And now we’re missing Lynch. When Rhodes was cut I had to wonder how big a part of the offense they plan on this being.

by Applsoss on Sep 12, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

2 TE sets

DJ should consider using Chambers as a TE occasionally for run fronts if Nelson isn’t up to it. And Nelson should also be used outside of the redzone. Sink or swim, Shawn.

by shouldbeworking on Sep 12, 2009 4:10 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I completely and totally agree with that. Belichick thinks he is so smart (probably because he is), then lets line up Chambers as a TE and see how they handle an offense with 6 offensive lineman and two good deep threats at WR. Whether Schouman or Reed is the 11th guy out there on offense, Buffalo has the personel to throw or pass out of that setup.

by kaisertown on Sep 12, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

see how they handle an offense with 6 offensive lineman and two good deep threats at WR/blockquote>
I love what you just said. It inspires me.

Stupar 2012!

by JPH on Sep 12, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

First Play

I hope we see play action pass. The Pats will never expect it. Of course, we probably instead run it straight ahead, for no gain.

by thejimbo on Sep 12, 2009 4:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

One step further

We will need to air it our most of the season. If and when we wait until we are behind, that’s the kind of pressure our young OL doesn’t need.

We have a chance to win Monday if we can secure a lead. That’s the only way, with one addendum:

We must do some creative things on both sides of the ball! If we don’t, fire Jauron. I’m serious. He’s had an entire off-season to prepare for this game, and I’m tired of the Bills thinking the same putrid game plan will defeat the Patriots.

The Dick Jauron version of the K-Gun...the Squirt Gun.

by ChipShot on Sep 12, 2009 4:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Fire a guy after one game?

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.

by MattRichWarren on Sep 13, 2009 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Buffalo will be running from one-back, three-wide sets frequently, which is difficult to do.

That was pretty much the staple of the K-gun which put a RB in the HOF.

I actually think it’s easier to run out of that formation because if you have 3 WRs it forces the defense to spread out and play nickel so the front 7 on defense becomes a front 6.

by Pistol on Sep 12, 2009 6:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agree, Pistol. How did Thurman rack up all those yards during his career? It was mostly from the one-back, three-wide set. Spread out Belicheat’s D, then pound the rock down their throats. Be creative, but don’t get too cute. K.I.S.S. principle.

Bloody some Patriot noses, Bills!

Get the Bills back to the big game!

by Blitz on Sep 12, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but Thurman was a Hall of Fame talent playing behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. Slightly different.

Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott

by Brian Galliford on Sep 13, 2009 6:09 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"The Isolation of Fred Jackson"

…Sounds like an indie movie Jim Carrey would star in to make us feel like he’s not just a guy who makes funny faces.

Stupar 2012!

by JPH on Sep 12, 2009 6:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

blitz is right

smash mouth offense and a sack happy D

by dvdacmn on Sep 12, 2009 8:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i just read on yahoo

that NE has a ton of huge injuries. wes welker is questionable, and some DBs are also, which will help us use the pass.

by caboose on Sep 12, 2009 9:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

They will all play, Welker and Springs.

Suit them up and let the play, we wouldn’t want it any other way.

Only Real Men Wear Red, White, and Blue.

by VanScottM on Sep 12, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

???????

Hey guys are you forgeting that we have a young offensive line and to make it easier for them we should try to keep this a low scoring game by running the ball and containing there offense to taking what we give them defensively…..the same way the giants play the pats …..if the game score is around 21-24 we have alot better chance then airing it out against the best…..by airing it out you play the game they want to play..doesn’t make sense

There is a I in Bills!

by Moe_frm_B_ on Sep 12, 2009 9:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, that’s a great theory – which is why Belichick will do everything he can to eliminate that possibility. I covered that in the article.

Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott

by Brian Galliford on Sep 13, 2009 6:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

SB Nation's home for daily Buffalo Bills coverage.

Community Guidelines

Start posting about the Bills »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
To cheer, or not to cheer
Billsmagnetsquare_small
Draft confusion (and a poem! :D)
Small
Any relevent feedback would be nice
Nfl-toronto_small
some thoughts
Images_small
Bills Quarterbacks
279px-buffalo_bills_logo_svg_small
To be or Not to be?
T_edwards_070930_gallery_600_1__small
The 1st Thing Buffalo Should Do This Offseason
Small
You would think Jacksonville would move before Buffalo.
Small
Thanks Bills Fans (from a Jag fan)
Daffy_duck_small
As the merry-go-round turns: Bills coaching rumors and more

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Latest NFL Headlines from SB Nation


Editor-in-Chief

Ronswanson_small Brian Galliford

Editors

Sucks_small Kurupt

Mrsinister03_small sireric

Billsjaguars_small MattRichWarren

Authors

Dynamics_small Ron From NM

Slide1_small Der Jaeger

Nfl-toronto_small kaisertown