Bills must avoid post-MNF letdown against Bucs
by Brian Galliford on Sep 16, 2009 3:15 PM EDT
in Buffalo Bills News
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PrintLet's just say, for the sake of argument (and this post), that you're a fan of moral victories. The Buffalo Bills had better be; if they're not, their 25-24 loss to New England on Monday night would be pretty worthless, would it not?
In said loss - during a game which most NFL fans did not perceive Buffalo to be a competitive threat to New England - the Bills proved, at a minimum, that they can perform well and compete in hostile environments. The end result, however, is the same as if they'd been blown out. The Bills need to prove that their strong showing for 58 minutes was not a fluke; skepticism will reign supreme if the Bills come out flat in their home opener on Sunday against Tampa Bay.
Luckily, we have a bit of a historical sample with which to judge how the Bills rebound from crushing defeats on Monday Night Football. The Bills have endured those types of defeats in each of the past two seasons; in both cases, Buffalo responded with a victory in their following game. This time around, however, we're looking for something slightly different. We'll explain after the jump.
Bills 2-0 in MNF rebound games under Jauron
As I'm sure you all remember with acute agony, the Bills lost a 25-24 prime time game to Dallas on October 8, 2007. After a bye week, Buffalo took the field at home on October 21, 2007 and beat the Baltimore Ravens, 19-14, in Trent Edwards' third career start.
The following season, the Bills missed a field goal as time expired to drop a 29-27 decision in prime time to Cleveland on November 17. Again, Buffalo was able to pull out a win six days later, dropping 54 points on Kansas City in a 23-point win.
The two cases are slightly different. The 2007 Dallas Cowboys eventually finished the season 13-3, and Buffalo's ability to hang with them in prime time was shocking (nor was their ability to find a way to lose that game). The Ravens team that Buffalo beat in their next game finished 5-11. Last season, however, the Browns were an abysmal 4-12, and the prime time loss was easily the Bills' most embarrassing on the season. The Chiefs team the Bills throttled the following week was a miserable 2-14.
In each case, the Bills beat bad teams - teams worse than them, in fact. Last season, the Bills simply went on the road and beat a team they should have beaten. The same is true in 2007, but there's a slight difference: they didn't prove that their competing with Dallas wasn't a fluke. They hung on by the skin of their teeth to beat a bad Ravens team. That, folks, is exactly what the Bills need to avoid this season - even if the jury is still out on the young Buccaneers.
Can the Bills repeat their MNF effort?
The Dallas game is the most pertinent to this discussion, so feel free to drop the Cleveland loss from your mind now (or for the rest of your lives, if you wish). In that loss to Dallas, the Bills put up a herculean effort against a far superior team, making plays along the way that they simply don't make in any other games (such as Chris Kelsay's tipped pass pick-six, or George Wilson's pick-six, or Terrence McGee's kickoff return for a score, or, in the case of this most recent game, Aaron Schobel's pick-six). In short, the Bills didn't match their effort from the Dallas game to the Baltimore game, despite the victory. That can't happen again this Sunday.
Let's say, for instance, that the Bills were to repeat their effort from two seasons ago, and they go out and beat Tampa Bay by a final of 19-14 on Sunday. The game unfolds precisely as it did two years ago. Great! A win is a win. We're 1-1, and we're not experiencing a hangover from the big loss. Is that type of victory really enough?
Buffalo went 6-5 after the loss to Dallas in 2007, and they closed 2-4 after the loss to Cleveland a season ago. If one looks closely at their post-prime time performances, those seriously mediocre finishes were quite predictable. They're out to prove that they're better than mediocre this season. No one is sure exactly what to make of the Buccaneers this season, but the general consensus is that they're not serious playoff contenders. If that, indeed, is the case, this is a game the Bills should not just win, but control with ease - if they're to prove that their loss in New England wasn't a fluke, that is.
It's going to take effort - lots of it. The Bills always play hard for Dick Jauron, but their hard play in the season opener was a level rarely replicated by his teams. They need the same (or more) effort in preparation, and their play needs to be equal or better to what we saw on Monday - regression, as we saw against Baltimore, is not acceptable. They need to play with the same desperation. Their young leaders need to step up (and, for the record, I think having a motivated individual like Terrell Owens on the team will give those young leaders a massive assist). They absolutely cannot rest on their laurels - that performance was step one in a long season. Improvement, not a mere victory, is sought. Nothing but improvement is a let-down. The pressure is on for these thus-far surprising Bills.
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tampa got their yards against the ‘pokes – but gave up a bunch, too. amazing leftwich wasn’t sacked – typically a deep drop passer with a hideously slow delivery.
mind set at one bills drive this week should be to finish it by the half. leave nothing to doubt or chance.
home opener. bound to be loud and festive.
AVP watches the dallas tape, and deals accordingly.
Bills 31 – Bucs -13
Did you give the bucks negative 13 points?
by WhyBillsWhy on Sep 17, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
This will be a great training for the O to work the plays that work. The toss sweeps, the slants, the go routes. SIMPLE but DOMINATING. LEAVE NO QUESTION.
Delightfully Ignoring The Truth since 1995.
by NeverendingOptimism on Sep 16, 2009 3:49 PM EDT reply actions
How can it be a letdown if we didn't win!?!?
Ha
We definitely can’t come out flat and let the TB ground game get rolling. Force Byron Sandwich to beat us.
Some of you guys are getting a little ahead of yourselves here. We shouldn’t just dominate this team, nor will it be an easy game. Tampa won 9 games last year in the tough NFC South. We aren’t going to simply roll over them.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Sep 16, 2009 3:57 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
not the same tampa team as last year, obviously.
by LeClaireBill on Sep 16, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t mean to insinuate that it was domination-or-bust. But could Tampa have played the way we played in NE? I doubt it. This is our home opener. We don’t have to dominate, but it should be a tough, clean, matter-of-fact victory for us. I’ll be happy if it has the appearance of a routine victory. That’s all I was driving at. If they win 28-17, for example. Nothing dominant, but not really close.
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by Brian Galliford on Sep 16, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
oh I wasnt referring to you there Brian
I’ve seen some comments saying we should dominate them…that’s all
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Sep 16, 2009 4:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
if we are what we want to be – we should dominate them. they are in complete rebuilding mode with a QB that takes about 5 seconds just to get the ball out of his throwing motion.
I expect a complete and matter of fact victory out of us if we are to compete this year.
I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
by J2 on Sep 16, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
100% Agree
…that I’d be happy with that final, but if we have that 11-point lead with a few minutes and they have the ball, I might get a little nervous…of course Leftwich isn’t exactly Tom Brady.
Illinois: My governor is a bigger crook than your governor
But the Tampon 2 is still the Tampon 2.
Wouldn't it be ironic if this team imploded and it had nothing to do with TO?
by thefourwinds on Sep 16, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I personally would like us to be dominant. That doesn’t mean rack some disgusting score. I want the Defense to be sound and the Offense to take the downfield shots.
By the by, who fills for Poz? Buggs isn’t up to snuff yet, IMO. Slide Mitchell over and have Ellison and Harris as the outsides?
Delightfully Ignoring The Truth since 1995.
by NeverendingOptimism on Sep 16, 2009 5:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
We might go Nickel almost full time to make up for the loss allowing us rotate guys who are outsiders constantly
In order to keep people fresh. We have enough CBs to allow us to do so AND Youbuty is a solid tackler, and Corner is starting to show the same chops, we can survive that way.
As my mother once said, common sense isn't as common as it should be, I'm looking at you Fewell, common sense says to play UP on the line against the slant.
Please no. Force the TB receivers to beat us in regular 4-3. I don’t want to start off handicapped against their running game.
by WhyBillsWhy on Sep 17, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
tampa adjusting to a new d philosophy/scheme
if i were tampa d-coordinator watching film of what roy williams and miles austin did, i’d crap myself being sure TO and evans were contained.
and as well as nelson performed monday night, if i were AVP i’d do the same as he did with screens – and run nelson up the seam with deep safties until they prove they can stop it. same play over and over.
by LeClaireBill on Sep 16, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Lee and Owens did exactly what we thought they were going to do
the opened the short gain and running lanes, when lynch gets back it will be bonkers
"Hold ya chin up...nuh nuh nuh...gone"
-Marshawn Lynch-
this is an excellent point
bills have a great opportunity to be a “pick your poison” offense. NE took the wideouts away. no problem. go to freddy or marshawn when he returns. and as good as jackson is, i think lynch will be even more a problem in the open field.
stack the box? TO or Evans is in single coverage.
nelson also will be a big factor by mid-season in my opinion. i really really liked his contributions monday night.
so….they have to go out and prove it on the field. but frankly, i’d take the skill position players of evans, to, jackson, lynch and nelson – as a group – over any other team group in the afc. throw in josh reed, steve johnson, parrish and hardy for depth, and it gets scary. we need trent to put it all together and distribute the ball – but the pieces are there.
by LeClaireBill on Sep 16, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Stevie Johnson is the perfect guy to send up the deep middle if he is healthy by Sunday. No LB is going to be able to cover him (I’m assuming the Safeties and CB’s will be busy shutting down Evans and Owens). Add in Reed and Nelson and the Bills could have quite a passing attack. What they obviously should not do is use Parrish, who was less than useless on Monday Night (and on every night he plays WR).
What happened to Stevie? I thought he was healthy, just not activated so we could have 3 TEs active.
I seriously think we had 3 ready because of Fine’s injury. Stupar’s waived now, I bet Stevie Wonder will dress.
Delightfully Ignoring The Truth since 1995.
by NeverendingOptimism on Sep 19, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Fine will dress in place of Stupar. How does that make Steve more likely to dress?
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.
by MattRichWarren on Sep 19, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
If it turns out any team would want to play the “pick your poison” defense, why would they want to allow the short game? Edwards has shown no ability to play the long ball offense. I have to wonder if NE front 7 just aren’t up to snuff.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Sep 17, 2009 7:19 AM EDT up reply actions
NE did their best to take away TO and Evans – and hence left the short game open – and the Bills exploited it quite well.
With the NE safties so deep on most every play, Jackson’s yards per catch – on screens – was sick good.
NE obviously felt differently about Edwards – and that if they didn’t double up Evans and TO – they’d pay. And I’d be inclined to agree. Evans may have to best double move in the nfl, and TO can take a 20 yd slant to the house.
Upcoming opponents are going to look at what Belicheck tried to do, and look at what the Bills still accomplished, and will have to pick their poison.
by LeClaireBill on Sep 17, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
defense
Buffalo needs to sort out their defense. As Brian noted Pos & Kelsay won’t be playing. Stopping a revitalized Cadillac shorthanded will be tough.
Still, my fingers are crossed the play calling won’t change and Whitner finally feels comfortable in his role. C’mon Buffalo get r done.
not so fast...
Looks like Kelsay may be playing after all. He felt good the last two days and is going to try to practice tomorrow (bb.com)
Stay positive....stay positive...stay positive...
by Slick Shifty on Sep 16, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought I might need a bottle of something just to sleep, what a relief!!
Haha
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Sep 16, 2009 8:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’d prefer it not be a blowout, but a hard-fought win that requires them to play hard all 60 minutes, without having to squeak it out on the final play. This will do wonders for their confidence as well as show ability to close out a win.
In that regard, I’d want to see:
1. Fewer penalties (though many this past week shouldn’t even have been called).
2. Fewer WR dropped passes.
3. More plays to get TO, Lee, and Reed involved.
4. Better job all around by ST.
5. Another zero turnover effort by the offense.
6. Continued sharp redzone play by the offense.
7. Coninued good run defense (against a pretty good running offense).
8. More rotation of Dline personnel.
I guess this is my keys to victory post three days too early!
Wouldn't it be ironic if this team imploded and it had nothing to do with TO?
I expect this to be something like the Seattle game last year. Trouncing victory. We’re a much better team than the Buccaneers. That said, I’m not going roller coaster if we don’t show up well, or even lose. I’ll be a little disappointed (depending on how the game goes), but there’s no use panicking after two games.
That’s the best way to look at it. Let’s not get our expectations up too high here. It’s not blow-out or the season is lost. A loss is a loss like Monday, and a W is a W. Let’s go get a W, turn this record around and keep it rolling. I’d love to see us dominate, or have a “Trouncing Victory” but I’ll take a W no matter what
"Potential just means you haven’t done sh## yet"
great thought
here Brian. I agree. I want to see the same effort, focus and game plan going into Tampa Bay. Consistency is the name of the game in this league. We need to come out again and play a clean (No TO’s) game, and have a game plan that really puts pressure on the Bucs and allows each unit to succeed. This Sunday can’t come soon enough
MARVelous - "I went from America's team to North America's Team" Terrell Owens
I'll be happy with a win for us.
What I’d Love to see though is our Offense getting the time of possession up over 30 minutes.I know we all want to see those long balls to TO and Lee but I’d really like to see them use this new line and dominate..Runs..Short passes and the long ball..No way the Defense can play 38 minutes of every game..
by FanFromThe80s on Sep 16, 2009 6:24 PM EDT reply actions
there we go.
“No way the Defense can play 38 minutes of every game”
That’s key. I want to see the TOP at least around 32 minutes, giving our D a fare share of oxygen. 11 point lead or not, our D can’t be winded like they were in the 4th on Monday.
Delightfully Ignoring The Truth since 1995.
by NeverendingOptimism on Sep 16, 2009 6:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The time of possession stuff was on the defense, though. They are the ones that allowed double-digit play drives. The offense only went three and out one time and often the play clock was ticking into the single digits.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.
by MattRichWarren on Sep 18, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
You got me rocking!
Nice post, Brian. I started feeling a little pumped up at the end there. Very comparable to Bluto’s pep talk in Animal House. Williams……Dead, Winslow…….Dead, Leftwich……
Did we surrender when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? NO!
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.
by MattRichWarren on Sep 18, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
dear bills, please destroy bucs
I hope our offense shows dominance. Tampa plays a scheme and talent very similar to what Trent and the boys work against every day in practice: good corners (Talib + Barber), Tampa 2 coverage. I think the TB d-line will give better pass rush than NE, so it will be interesting to see how o-line holds up. Anyway, no more of this leave it to a comeback at the end crap like the first games last year. Just keep keep calling the plays that work, score and show you truly are as awesome as we think.
For our defense, I hope we push up on their receivers to give our pass rush time to get to Leftwich. Their best WR (Bryant) is hurt, and I would hope Leo can stay with Clayton, so why not more press coverage and pull Scott up to line to cover Winslow/provide run support? TB threw almost all short passes last week. They’re starting a backup at center, but their line must be OK if Dallas got 0 sacks. It seems to me our D should shut them down. Giving up more than 10 points would be a disappointment.
Like was said, the thing that will kill Bills is lack of effort, and it may be tough to get pumped up against a team that isn’t scary, but hopefully, the first home game with the 50th anniversary celebration and a huge cheer for Leo gets everyone psyched. I think a big win would do plenty good for Bills confidence just in time for New Orleans.
I don't care if the performance is a "dominating" style win, I want a win that is not in doubt towards the end
I want a game where we come out, play hard, put up points, get the D off the field and play super solid fundamental football. I would be really happy with a 28+ point performace by the O.
As my mother once said, common sense isn't as common as it should be, I'm looking at you Fewell, common sense says to play UP on the line against the slant.
Been giving it a lot of thought
And our performance on Monday reminds me of my friend Will. He was the captain of a high school lacrosse team. Opening day comes along and its cold, windy and rainy. He has the team huddled up around him and tries to give a pep talk. He opens with “These are games that separate the men from the boys, boys.”
He never got to finish, people were laughing so hard.
That game separated the men from the boys. For now, we are still boys.
Jonathan Stupar won the Heisman…while playing in the NFL!
Keep in mind Tampa's running game.
They have a very good running back tandem. This will be a good game for us. There running game could keep our defense on the field along time. Look through our schedule and you will see that we have quite a few teams that will mix and match running backs at us. The dolphins, titans, jets just to name a few. We have to be real serious about this game. We should see alot of rotation at LB and DL. We have alot of young players that haven’t expreienced this game speed yet. Ward is hungry and Caddilac feels washed and polished. This is a serious game no matter where it is played.
Excuses are a sign of weakness!!!!!!
This will be a good game showing off the run defense. I fully expect the Bucs to hold the ball for 40 minutes of this game. THey should run all day on Marcus Buggs until he proves he can stop them.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.
by MattRichWarren on Sep 18, 2009 10:17 AM EDT reply actions
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