When to go for it, punt and kick. Great work by the folks at Advanced Football Stats. This is not...

When to go for it, punt and kick. Great work by the folks at Advanced Football Stats. This is not what coaches do but rather what they should do.

6 months ago MattRichWarren 8 comments 0 recs |

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I don't get it.

So you should go for it if it is 4th and 3 from your own 15

"Next time I get the opportunity I am going to hold on and make a better decision." ~ Leodis McKelvin. (Can't ask for anythitng more than that)

by NolaBillsFan on Sep 19, 2009 4:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Right. So the average team in the average situation would benefit (have a higher probability of scoring points than being scored against) by going for it on 4th and 3, even from your own 15. They explain in the article how the average coach is conservative minded and theorize why that is.

by karovda on Sep 19, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Read the comments in the article too. Many people there had some very interesting insights.

Wouldn't it be ironic if this team imploded and it had nothing to do with TO?

by thefourwinds on Sep 19, 2009 9:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here’s one:

Yes. And Romer’s paper was just as aggressive deep in your own territory. It is shocking, but keep in mind the other side of the equation. The opponent is probably going to score if you punt anyway.
How hard is it to get 2 or 3 yards? The median play in the NFL gets you at least 4.
Here’s another thought: Imagine there is no punt in the rulebook, and then one day it’s invented. A guy like me comes up to a coach and says, ‘Kick the ball on every 4th down and the other team gets it 35 yds further down the field.’
The coach would think I’m crazy. “Wait, you want me to give up 25% of my opportunities for a first down on every series…just for 35 yards of field position? Do you realize how much that’s going to kill our chances of scoring?”

Wouldn't it be ironic if this team imploded and it had nothing to do with TO?

by thefourwinds on Sep 19, 2009 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I get the strategy

But not the graph. It doesn’t make any sense. What does the line represent?

by Rocket Ship Science on Sep 20, 2009 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The line is when you should go for it…

The horizontal axis is distance from a touchdown, the vertical is distance to first down.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.

by MattRichWarren on Sep 20, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

After watching the game, I’d say that making decisions any where near close to this graph would prove quite difficult with regards to team, ownership, fan base and commentator reaction. I can’t imagine the ferocity of the all those entities, should you go for it on 4th and 3 from your own 20 yard line should it fail. As a coach, your judgment would undoubtedly be questioned if you failed and would likely be called lucky if you succeeded. The stats are undeniable, but I think any coach, no matter how revered, would have a hard time selling this more aggressive strategy – at least at first.

by karovda on Sep 20, 2009 11:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs