kry style dump - it seems to be the cool thing to do
A couple thoughts on the Saints: Their offense was really, really, really good last year too. They scored 1.5 points per game more than any team in the league. They still went 2-6 on the road and those wins were in Detroit and Kansas City. I know they destroyed Philly, but their offense only averaged 23.75 points per game on the road last year and that included a 42 point drubbing of Detroit (so they actually scored 21 points per game on the road against teams other than Detroit). Brees threw for 5,000 yards, so I'm not sure how much better that offense is really going to get.
Yes, Drew Brees is incredible, but let's not make him out to be this unbeatable player. Did I miss when ESPN decided that Brees is the best player in the league or something? I feel like people are more afraid of him than they were Tom Brady or would be if we were playing Peyton Manning on Sunday. Why is that? Brees had a handful of mediocre or worse performances last year, especially on the road. He had 33 passes for 216 yards and two picks in Washington, 39 attempts for 231 yards and threw a pick in Carolina, threw three INTs in Atlanta, 6.3 yards per pass attempt and three picks in Tampa and 232 yards on 43 attempts (only 5.4 per) and three picks in Chicago last year. Take him out of that dome and he was mediocre more often than great last year. The three road teams that Brees did play like the legend of Drew Brees against were Detroit, Denver and Kansas City. Even Trent ripped up two of those teams and actually did just as well as Brees did in those stadiums. If it's windy on Sunday, expect the weak armed Brees to throw a couple INTs.
Even this year, has their offense been that unstoppable? Sure, they came out and spanked Detroit with 4 first half TDs. They also punted twice, had a FG blocked and Brees threw a pick. Can I point out again that it was Detroit? Two of those TD drives started at the 50 yard line and the others started at their 35 and 40 yard line. They also started inside their own 20 four times and came away with zero points on those possesions. Against Philly, they had 17 first half points including a great TD drive to open the game. After that score, they went three and out, had a drive start at their own 47 which ended in a FG, and had another drive start at thier 20 and end in a Brees INT. The INT was followed by another 3 and out and they finished the half with a ridiculous two play drive where both plays netted 25+ yards and ended with a TD. They started the 2nd half by scoring a pair of TDs, but they did it with two drives that started inside the Philly 30 yard line and the game was pretty much over after that. It's a great offense, but any chance we are overestimating this team at all?
And I mentioned this in the article with the Canal Street Chronicles guys answering some of Brian's questions, but their defense actually played better against crappy, inexperienced QBs than they have in the first two weeks this season. They dominated JaMarcus Russell, Kyle Orton and Dan Orlovsky more than almost every other defense those guys faced. Kolb was an INT machine in his limited playing time before NO and Drew Matt Stafford was playing his first game as a pro. I'm not going to consider that defense better than average until they play a real QB. I don't see why Trent can't have a game like he did against our first two opponents or why we can't run on New Orleans.
How about a random useless mock Bills draft? How about two?
Here's a mock for the Bills winning the SB and resigning almost all of their FAs, but not making any moves on unrestricted players from other teams:
1 - Derrick Morgan - DE - Georgia Tech - A pass rusher at LE? About time. Arthur Jones, Sean Weatherspoon, and any other LDE were other options.
2 - Jason Fox - OT - Miami - Decent chance that Bell can be upgraded, Butler doesn't come back the same or Butler wasn't that good of a RT to begin with too. Buffalo could certainly use better quality of depth along the OL too.
3 - Greg Jones - MLB - Michigan St. - the only reason that Jones might be available this late is his size and the depth of this draft class. Jones either passes Buggs and Digi on the depth chart as backup MLB/special teamer or competes with Ellison to start outside.
4 - Michael Hoomanawanui - TE - Illinois - Forgive me for a lack of faith in any of our TEs to become every down players. I think that even Nelson will need to be paired with a blocker (which could be Fine). A blocking force like Hoomanawanui could be a weapon for this team if used correctly.
5 - Brandon James - RB - Florida - nothing against Xavier Omon, but why not a homerun hitter and punt returner?
6 - Jim Cordle - OL - Ohio St. - very versatile player. An interior lineman in the middle rounds or FA seems like a lock. I probably shouldn't have waited this long.
7 - Shelley Smith - OG - Colorado St. - It worked with Lankster, might as well load up on interior offensive lineman and hope one works out. Plus if Steve Fairchild coached him, how can he not be good?
And here's a draft for Buffalo going 5-11, picking around 3rd-5th and a new coach trying to gut the roster, let the FAs walk and spend a year rebuilding some:
1 - Gerald McCoy - DT - Oklahoma - I might end up liking Suh better, but I think McCoy is a better fit in our rotation. not that Suh can't get after the QB, but I think McCoy could be a 6-8 sack per season guy and those are really tough to come by at DT. Also, I'm not in love with the idea of taking a DT, I just don't like any of the QBs enough, don't want to grab a safety or LT and think the top two DTs this year are total studs.
2 - Everson Griffin - DE - USC - the pass rush is a huge priority and a great place for a coach to start a rebuild, especially with Trent Edwards allowing the team to not find an immediate new starter at QB.
3 - Tony Pike - QB - Cincinatti - A new coach will grab a QB at some point. Pike in the early third might be a little optimistic. He seems to really be shooting up draft boards.
4 - Mardy Gilyard - WR - Cincinatti - another availability stretch, but I thought pairing Pike and Gilyard was a good idea, Mardy is a good returner and could fill Reed/Parrish's slot role and be a backup plan for Johnson and Hardy.
5 - Larry Asante - S - Nebraska - Scott and Wilson are both FAs. Asante is versatile, one of the few strong safeties in this draft and is likely a good special teamer.
6 - Ryan Reynolds - MLB - Oklahoma - has had serious injury issues, but is a solid player with some upside. I think Keith Ellison is an FA too.
7 - Dennis Landolt - OL - Penn St. - versatile player and Buffalo could use the depth.
The biggest thing that stood out to me while doing those mocks is how few needs this team could have with a good season and holding onto the coach and how many needs they will probably have with a new coaching staff.
This FanPost was written by a registered user of Buffalo Rumblings. Its views do not necessarily reflect the views of Rumblings' editorial staff, but are just as valued as our own.
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29 comments
Comments
I like the initial post...
the mock draft made my head explode…I don’t want to think about it right now is all…
I agree with you about the Saint offense…there is no way Brees maintains his current pace, but it could continue this week, I am not denying that. I just hope the weather comes into play this week.
by NorCal BillsFan on Sep 25, 2009 5:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, the possibility of the Saints dropping 40 points on the Bills and winning by three or more TDs is definitely there. Some wind would go a long way though. Brees has one of the weakest arms in the league and isn’t afraid to throw downfield. In 7 outdoor games, Brees threw 12 picks last year. I just don’t think that Brees, on the road, is nearly as scary as we are making him out to be. In Buffalo, I’d much rather play against Brees than Manning, Brady and even guys like Roethlisberger or Rodgers …. and it’s not even close.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
by kaisertown on Sep 25, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Atlanta is a dome too. That should read 9 INTs in 6 outdoor games. Also, how does a team only play 6 outdoor games all season?
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
by kaisertown on Sep 25, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some wind would go a long way though. Brees has one of the weakest arms in the league and isn’t afraid to throw downfield.
Say don’t we have one of the windiest stadiums in the league due to the fact that the feild level is like 25 feet bellow ground level? That should definatly play in our advantage.
Captain of the "Promote Bob Sanders to Deffensive Coordinator" band wagon.
by CanadianBillsFan on Sep 26, 2009 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
And they tell you that little tidbit of fact every time you play at the Ralph in Madden 10 ;)
Bills fan? In Colorado? It's more likely than you think.
by UZ on Sep 26, 2009 4:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds about right, it’s where I got the info. Luckily I didn’t buy the game so I haven’t been anoyed by the quircky facts and never ending glitches yet.
Captain of the "Promote Bob Sanders to Deffensive Coordinator" band wagon.
by CanadianBillsFan on Sep 26, 2009 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah and Buffalo, not Chicago is actually the windiest city that has an NFL team too. It’s a rare day at the Ralph when there isn’t some wind.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
by kaisertown on Sep 26, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've mocked the 2010 Draft as well and come up with similar results
I have an excel spreadsheet which I try to keep updated with my projection for the year. I re-estimate who’s going to win games about 4 times per season after the initial estimate.
That spreadsheet (after estimating playoffs) feeds into another spreadsheet, which orders the draft.
After predicting UFA’s and coaching/scheme changes, it’s time to mock.
My mocks (I’ve done about 10 so far this season) have the Bills taking a DT high, or a DE low, depending on the record estimate. So I’d say you were on track. I don’t think we’d be in a position to pick McCoy unless we finish 3-13, but Suh or Marvin Austin are possibilities. I like Corey Wootten, DE, if we finish playoffs/borderline playoffs.
This is the ideal year to do what Carolina did last year, eg: take a 2011 1st for a 2010 2nd round pick. Most of the second round picks this year would be first rounders any other year. It wouldn’t be a bad year to try to package and get two first rounders as well.
I’d love to see the former scenario (middle first and two seconds).
1st- Corey Wootton, DE, northwestern
2A- Fox or Selvish Capers, O West Virginia
2B- Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State
by Der Jaeger on Sep 25, 2009 7:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking that 5 wins would land Buffalo in the top 4-5 picks, but after checking, it hasn’t given a team a pick higher than 7 in the last two drafts. I think 4 wins could put a team in McCoy/Suh territory. Good call on that.
And it’s definitely impossible to do a mock this time of year. It’s why I went with ridiculous draft positions like winning the Super Bowl or picking in the top 5. It’s the only way to have a clue what Buffalo’s needs to could be. For now, I like grabbing one of the top two DTs if we can, a big time LT if Bell struggles or a DE in the first round.
And kudos on being that organized about the draft. Sadly, I’m very impressed. I just watch as much football as I can. Focus more on individual players than sitting back and watching the games and collect my thoughts in the long stretch between football ending and the draft.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
by kaisertown on Sep 25, 2009 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t mock as much to precisely predict the draft, as to begin to understand how the draft itself will lay out, eg: where certain get picked over and over creates a an expected selection range. Some NFL teams do this as well in order to compare their board to where a targeted player may be selected.
With that, I predicting McCoy is picked no lower than the third overall pick. I also haven’t seen Suh go higher than 7th overall (factoring in underclassmen, which can skew results).
I put the excel spreadsheet together a while back. Once you get it together, it’s really simple.
The only games that I watch as a “fan” are Bills games. In college games and other pro games, I watch pro prospects and pending UFA’s.
by Der Jaeger on Sep 26, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Watching Wootton against Syracuse last week, I was hardly impressed. He was a non-factor for much of the game. Is he really that good? I haven’t seen him much to form a definitive opinion on him….
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Sep 26, 2009 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wootton tore his right ACL last year in the Alamo Bowl. Give him some time.
by Der Jaeger on Sep 26, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't know that
Good to know.
He’s back quite early then…
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Sep 26, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No worries
I spent most of the day watching pass rushers (Selvie, Wootton, and Norwood on Thursday) and have some observations to add to the Draft Team’s post next week.
by Der Jaeger on Sep 26, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about the 6’7" kid that plays opposite Selvie? He looks like he could develop into a decent prospect…
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Sep 26, 2009 11:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Are you talking about 90 or 58? I thought 58 had a decent first step (better than Selvie’s, in some cases). 90 seemed decent at the power game. South Florida seems to prefer/coach power end moves, because all of them seem to get into their opponents very quickly and do a lot of bull rushes and rips, as opposed to trying to get to the edge.
by Der Jaeger on Sep 27, 2009 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His name is Jason Pierre-Paul, No. 90. Kid has great size and athleticism. It’s his first year of D1 ball after going the JUCO route. Watching the FSU/USF game yesterday, he was obviously still somewhat raw, but the potential for him to become a very good player is there. I liked what I saw.
I wonder if Selvie will ever be able to add weight? Did you ever read that ESPN the Mag article about him? Makes it seem as if he might never grow into a 260-270 lb NFL DE….He might not need to though.
I love Selvie, btw. I’ve wanted him in Buffalo since I watched him early in 2007. He might be in the NFL now if he didn’t get hurt and face constant double teams last year.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Sep 27, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've still got a huge mancrush on....
Sean Weatherspoon. He’d be a beast on the strong side. He’s great against the run and in pass coverage and can separate people from the football.
by live6453 on Sep 25, 2009 11:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A few things:
1) Michael Hoomanawanui is an awesome name. I would draft him for that fact alone.
2) Ryan Reynolds – MLB – Oklahoma. The guy Marries Scarlett Johansson, will star as Deadpool, and can play MLB for the Bills? Sign me up.
Kry has started a trend here hasn’t he?
Don’t forget the Bills should have an extra 6th and 7th (?) from Philly and Detroit.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
by sireric on Sep 25, 2009 11:46 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
lol Love the Ryan Reynolds reference there Eric. Rec’d
Captain of the "Promote Bob Sanders to Deffensive Coordinator" band wagon.
by CanadianBillsFan on Sep 26, 2009 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don’t forget the Bills should have an extra 6th and 7th (?) from Philly and Detroit
The degree to which that reminder puts me in a good mood is a little pathetic.
And my post didn’t end up as Kry-like as I originally envisioned, but year, he’s definitely got a good thing going with those posts.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
by kaisertown on Sep 26, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really believe Pike will shoot up the boards. He’s going to continue putting up good numbers all season, and his size/athleticism seem like a perfect match for the pre-draft workouts. I wouldn’t be surprised if he moved into the first round when all is said and done.
I like the Gilyard pick, I absolutely love that guy. I know he’s probably going to measure a little smaller than he plays, but wouldn’t it be awesome to have another Marshawn on the team?!?!
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Sep 26, 2009 1:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
For a QB, how about the guy that’s currently starting at Ole Miss? I don’t know if he’ll be entering the draft this year, but I like what I’ve seen from him so far this year. the 4th place national ranking is there for a reason.
Captain of the "Promote Bob Sanders to Deffensive Coordinator" band wagon.
by CanadianBillsFan on Sep 26, 2009 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He looked pretty bad against South Caroline last night
Jevan Snead might still be the first QB taken though. He’s a talent, for sure. I don’t know if I’m convinced yet that he’s worth drafting in the top 5….
4th place ranking….no more……
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Sep 26, 2009 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that his O-Line made him look worst then he really is… but then again if he can’t make it with a shabby O-Line in College then he wont make it with our shabby O-Line in the NFL.
Captain of the "Promote Bob Sanders to Deffensive Coordinator" band wagon.
by CanadianBillsFan on Sep 26, 2009 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Watching Cincy v Fresno right now and there is no way that Pike and Gilyard will be available where I have them. And you can never have too many Marshawns.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
by kaisertown on Sep 26, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Totally agree about the Saints
They are deffinatly a VERY beatable team when they play in a windy stadium. And their deffence is mediocre at best, I mean there is a reason why they missed the playoffs even with the league’s best offence. The possibility of Brees throwing for 4 TD’s is always there, but so is the possibility of throwing 3 INT’s, especially with a healthy secondary on our part.
This game is deffinatly winable.
Captain of the "Promote Bob Sanders to Deffensive Coordinator" band wagon.
by CanadianBillsFan on Sep 26, 2009 2:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think it’s a little crazy how many Saints fans are predicting their team to put 40 points on the board against us.
http://www.canalstreetchronicles.com/2009/9/25/1054151/new-orleans-saints-buffalo-bills
I think the Bills D is really average, but some things they do well are limit big plays and force teams into settling for FGs. I think the Saints fans are overreacting to two games.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
by kaisertown on Sep 26, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed. Plus after two games so far this year we can also say that even though our deffense gives up a lot of yards in the air, we have the best big play deffence of the league. We’ve already returned two INT’s for scores, while recording another. No other D has done that yet this year.
Captain of the "Promote Bob Sanders to Deffensive Coordinator" band wagon.
by CanadianBillsFan on Sep 27, 2009 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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