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Keys to Victory: Bills vs Saints

The Buffalo Bills face the New Orleans Saints this week in what could be their most challenging non-divisional game of the season.  Coming off a decisive victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Bills will be trying to shut down the league's number one offense, led by Drew Brees.  It will be a difficult challenge, and one we all hope Perry Fewell and the Bills' defense is up for.

This is a very winnable game - one that would surprise the entire country based on how well the Saints have played thus far.  The Bills don't have to be perfect, but they do need to execute and avoid critical errors.  How will the Bills beat the Saints?  Check out my keys to a Bills victory after the jump.

Star-divide

Get the ball into the end zone: It's so simple, but it's so critical for the Bills to win this week.  They need to get the ball into the end zone at a better rate than we've seen.  So far this season, the Bills have scored four offensive touchdowns - two in each of the first two games against the Patriots and Bucs.  I don't think that's going to cut it this week.  A week after Rian Lindell booted four field goals - including three after the Bills reached the Bucs' red zone - they need to be able to finish their drives and put touchdowns on the board.  The Saints' offense isn't going to be shut down easily, so it's important for the Bills to keep pace.  Those drives that have ended in field goals will likely need to end in touchdowns this week.  The red zone offense will be one of the most important deciding factors for this week's game.

Score early, don't get behind: To piggy back the last key to victory, the Bills would be much better off if they can score early and even get a lead.  I don't think this offense is built to come from behind to beat a team like New Orleans.  Getting ahead early, and/or keeping the game close, will allow the offense to run through Fred Jackson again.  That's probably the best way for the Bills to keep the game at their pace.

Control the clock, and the game: And to piggy back on the last two keys to victory, the Bills need to control the tempo of this game.  Getting into a shootout with Brees probably isn't the smartest game plan.  As they did last week, if the Bills can get the ground game going and sustain drives, they can keep this game going at a more manageable pace.  Keeping Brees and the Saints' offense off the field might be the best result of this, if it were to occur. They can't score if they don't have the ball.  I know this strategy didn't give the Dolphins a victory over the Colts, but their loss sure wasn't on the offense in that game.  If the Bills are able to keep their running game going for the entire game, which allows them to really build on play-action, they will have a great chance to keep the fans in it, and keep it at the pace they need.

Get TO involved and keep him interested: Terrell Owens has been held in check thus far, but the Bills really need that to change this week.  Whether or not this was truly the case, T.O. looked frustrated and disinterested at times last week.  That doesn't help us and really won't help us this week.  The mercurial receiver will be at his best when he's a focal point in the offensive game plan.  I don't think Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter can keep up with Owens and Lee Evans this week, and there will be opportunities to hit the big play.  Getting Owens the ball early will only help open the offense up.  I fully expect the Saints to key on Fred Jackson early, trying to shut him down.  If that does occur, Trent Edwards has to get the ball to T.O. Look for quick slants, drag patterns across the field and maybe even a reverse again. The ball needs to get to the team's best playmaker at a better clip than it has thus far.  A big game from T.O. would be tremendous this week.

Keep going to Jackson: Even though I expect the Saints to really key on Fred Jackson early and often this week, the offense still needs to roll through him.  The offensive line has proven capable of giving him lanes, and he's proven more than capable of picking up chunks of yardage.  If the Bills can establish the run early, the entire offense will open up around Jackson.  We didn't see many (any?) screen passes last week, but that would be a good play to go back to this week.  Jackson has been one of the best RBs in the NFL so far this season; let's keep going to the guy that's been producing until he gets slowed down.

Slow Drew Brees down: I think it's safe to say Buffalo's defense isn't going to shut Brees down. They can, however, slow him down a bit and keep his production manageable.  He's been incredible this season. Brees is averaging a whopping 9.8 yard per attempt so far this season, to go with his 9 touchdowns.  That needs to be reduced this week if the Bills want to pull the upset.  Last season, Brees was a much different QB on the road than he was in the comfy confines of the Superdome.  He averaged two yards less per attempt, threw 12 fewer touchdowns, seven more interceptions and had a QB rating 35 points below his home rating. He can be slowed and probably won't put up his patented 350-yard, 4-TD game this week.  The Bills needs to make sure that that, indeed, doesn't happen.

Limit mistakes: This applies specifically to the offense.  So far this season, the Bills have turned it over three times (not bad), but have committed 19 penalties.  That second number just can't continue.  Demetrius Bell has been the main culprit, as he's been flagged five times in two games thus far.  After four penalties against the Patriots, Bell reduced his output to just one against the Bucs.  It needs to be zero this week.  He's also gotten beat a handful of times by his man.  If the Bills' offense is to control the clock/tempo and punch the ball into the end zone this week, Bell and his fellow linemates need to cut down on the mental errors.  This isn't a game that the team can afford too many mistakes.

Force mistakes: On the flip side, the Bills' defense needs to force some mistakes this week.  A pair of Byron Leftwich interceptions last week really set the tempo and gave the Bills a comfortable lead early in the first quarter.  It'd be nice to see something like that again. Forcing a Brees interception or two, maybe a fumble here or there, would really give the Bills the advantage they need.  If the Bills sit back hoping the Saints make mistakes this week, they'll likely be out of luck pretty quickly.  Perry Fewell needs to get his cornerbacks up in press coverage more this week, which he probably will, hopefully forcing Brees into some tougher passes.  We can hope, right?

Dominate Special Teams: It goes beyond winning the special teams battles this week; I think we might need to dominate the Saints in this area.  New Orleans doesn't have a great special teams unit, and can really be exploited.  Unfortunately, Bobby April's units haven't been their usual selves thus far this season.  It'd be great if they could turn that around this week.  A big Leodis McKelvin or Roscoe Parrish return could go a long way this week.  The coverage units improved last week against Tampa and will need to remain stout this week.  Giving Drew Brees a short field isn't the smartest idea.  I know I speak often about getting a big return out of McKelvin, but this week would be such a great time for one.

*****

No doubt about it, this one is a tough game.  Brees and his cast of quality offensive pieces will be a great challenge for our defense. Brees is beatable on the road, but won't be easy to stop.  This is not a game to come out flat, because the Saints could make it a double-digit lead in no time.  Let's hope for a little weather to help slow Brees down and a huge performance out of the defense.  What are your keys to a big Bills win?

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Great read K

Any chance we can get this to DJ an Co.? Cause you never know with those guys.

On a side note, whats happening with your Top 50 Bills Series? I miss those pieces and was looking forward to count down the list over the summer.

Captain of the "Promote Bob Sanders to Deffensive Coordinator" band wagon.

by CanadianBillsFan on Sep 26, 2009 8:53 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Top 50

Back burner for now…I’d much rather debate on the current season!

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Sep 26, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

BTW

The Louisiana governor who said that is now in prison.

See? There IS a God.

If we could just sythesize life in a laboratory, we could prove that the creation of life requires no intelligence.

by Tigernut on Sep 26, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If I were a Bison....

… I would challenge the Saints’ corners by going deep at least once every four downs. If you wait until you get to the red zone to try for a TD, the condensation of safeties and corners are going to make it tougher. So, go for the home run on 1st or 2nd down or even on 3rd and short from 30 or more yards out.

Take some chances. Fourth and one or two can be successful. The Saints can be run on and there is a good chance of success here.

Wear deep cleats and use a lot of hooks and bootlegs. The Saints play on turf a lot and even if they are wearing their long spikes, they aren’t used to making cuts on that kind of surface, so it’s a good way to get a step or two on the defender.

Play good, clean ball. Don’t shoot yourselves in the foot with dumb penalties. Run a no-huddle and don’t give the Saints D time to adjust.

Yeah, I’m a Saints fan, but I’ve also got a soft spot for the Bisons. I was a big fan of Kelly and Tasker as a kid. It’s not like this is a divisional game or even a conference game, so let’s not put too much on the importance of it. I’d like to see the Saints win, but I’d also like to see a good game and, after the Pats game, I know you guys can make it one. We are both, after all, small market teams working for respect. If the salary cap gets lifted next year, that will become very much more difficult for guys like us. This could be the last good shot for both teams to make a name for themselves.

If we could just sythesize life in a laboratory, we could prove that the creation of life requires no intelligence.

by Tigernut on Sep 26, 2009 9:07 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Some things never change.

T.O. looked frustrated and disinterested at times last week.

This guy is poison if you let him be. He has a tongue like a scalpel. He cuts his teammates so cleanly, they don’t even feel it until later or when someone points it out to them. He completely blamed Edwards and the coaches for the loss and made it sound like a matter-of-fact, unbiased observation. He NEVER takes the blame himself. He is a narcissist of the first degree. If the team can ignore him and just play their game, they will prevent the locker room division that follows T.O. everywhere and creates distractions off the field and on.

If we could just sythesize life in a laboratory, we could prove that the creation of life requires no intelligence.

by Tigernut on Sep 26, 2009 9:17 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If the bills win the toss I'd like to see them elect to recieve

instead of DJ’s interest in kicking off to begin the game. Usually I like kicking off to start the game, but I’d like to see the bills play with a sense of urgency they have somewhat lacked in the first few games. If we can get that 7-0 start to the game, it will get the crowd into it even more and hopefully make it difficult for the saints to respond with their own touchdown on the following posession.

by dragonwag0n on Sep 26, 2009 10:27 AM EDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

I never have understood why a team that won the toss would defer. Yeah, I’ve heard of getting the KO after halftime argument, but that seems like a self-defeating attitude to me. Why give the other team a chance to get the first momentum?

“Conan, what is best in life?”
“To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the vimmin.”

If we could just sythesize life in a laboratory, we could prove that the creation of life requires no intelligence.

by Tigernut on Sep 26, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

When we signed Owens many of us thought we may have one of the top 5 receiving core’s in all of football. Well Sunday is when this will need to ring true. There is no doubt in my mind this group just needs time to develop first and identity, and secondly to establish cohesion. Once this happens and hopefully its sooner than later, this group should be a defensive nightmare. Let’s hope week 3 is when we see the beginning of this, the timing couldn’t be better for them to breakout against this particular team.

by Buffalonian on Sep 26, 2009 10:31 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

With every media outlet showing how great the Saints offense has been (which it has) this would be a great game to have us go out and click 100% on offense. I believe this could be a game where we see two 100 yard receivers on our side (evans and owens). We have the makings to a be a scary good offense. It would be great if this was the week it worked.

by bflo on Sep 26, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cohesion is not T.O's strong suit.

When it fails to develop, he will not hesitate to inform you that it is all Trent Edwards’ fault.

Unless T.O. can manage a Kobe-ish 180 with his attitude, you guys will, just like every other team he’s played for, be happy to see him go.

If we could just sythesize life in a laboratory, we could prove that the creation of life requires no intelligence.

by Tigernut on Sep 26, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jabari and T.O.

I’m afraid it ain’t true that Jabari Greer “can’t keep up” with T.O. In the MNF game against Dallas two years ago Jabari just about totally shut him down, including some very big plays at the end. CB’s often prove to be especially effective against one or two star receivers, and so far Greer has been a true T.O. killer. Let’s hope that changes now that he is in a Saints uniform, but I wouldn’t count on it.

My guess is that the Bills will need to send their receivers over the middle as much as possible against Gregg Williams’ defense. If that turns out to be true, the apparent loss of Josh Reed and Shawn Nelson could really hurt us. That means that Fine and Stupar will have to step up big time, and that Steve Johnson needs to be both activated and featured. Those three could really make a difference.

Conversely, the key to slowing down Brees will be to take away the middle. That’s where he likes to throw, and the more the Bills can play press coverage on Saints receivers who are slanting, etc., the harder we will make it for Brees. If we have our DB’s lay back in soft zone coverage it’s not going to be pretty.

by Macktruck on Sep 26, 2009 10:49 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Our corners have GOT to be on them at the line. Anything more than 4-5 yards off is unacceptable when facing this team. I just wouldnt understand giving them a cushion like we did the last 5 minutes against NE.

by bflo on Sep 26, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do I ever agree with you. The question is whether Perry Fewell does.

by Macktruck on Sep 26, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was one game where the entire secondary and pass defense played well and frustrated Romo. I think TO can beat Greer tomorrow.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Sep 26, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As much as i liked Greer… I would still take TO on that match up.

by bflo on Sep 26, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We will see tomorrow. As a general rule I would pick T.O., but Greer seems to have his number. However, even if I’m right that doesn’t mean Trent will be without targets.

by Macktruck on Sep 26, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One battle does not win a war.

Delightfully Ignoring The Truth since 1995.

by NeverendingOptimism on Sep 26, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Attitude

The Bills must maintain the proper state of mind. They lost the New England game because they did not fully believe they were capable of winning. The Bills to a man must believe that they will win the game.

Play to WIN!
The Bills must play to win the game! Aggressive defense and offense throughout.
On defense: well disguised blitzes must be incorporated to put pressure on Brees, he can not be given time to pick apart our secondary. Cornerbacks must play bump and run and not allow Saints receivers to run the routes they want.
The front four will have to have a coming-out party and register at least 2 sacks, and pressure Brees up the middle all day long.
On Offense:
The running game is everything. If the Saints can not stop the run they will have to bring more men into the box which will free up Evans and Owens for big plays. If the Saints are able to stop the run early then the Bills must shift to a 5 receiver set and utilize Roscoe Parish’s speed while everyone else is watching the big names. Either way the Saints defense must be put off balance before the Bills can run a balanced attack.
Special Teams;
A return to former form must come this week. The Bills must limit all Saints returns, have long returns of their own, and take one to the “house.”

Above all the Bills have to believe they can win, embrace the underdog roll and play aggressively with some anger.

Home field advantage will also help slow Brees and the Saints offense down.

Bills 31
Saints 28

by Pietro Sirianni on Sep 26, 2009 10:59 AM EDT reply actions   2 recs

Yep

That’s basically what I was saying in my first post. Rec’d it.

If we could just sythesize life in a laboratory, we could prove that the creation of life requires no intelligence.

by Tigernut on Sep 26, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

kick returns, kick returns, kicks returns

I think special teams has to show up tomorrow on kick returns. They really haven’t so far this season (even costing us a W) and they must come up big for us. I like that point a lot K. If we are going to outscore the Saints we need excellent field position all day and maybe a free 6. Come on Leodis and Roscoe, this is huge….

We got your back Leodis!

by poz on Sep 26, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

LOL

Leodis and Roscoe.

Sounds like a cool name for a comic strip.

If we could just sythesize life in a laboratory, we could prove that the creation of life requires no intelligence.

by Tigernut on Sep 26, 2009 11:33 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ok, men (and vimmin, if there are any),

gotta go watch the LSU game. Hasta mangana. Take care.

If we could just sythesize life in a laboratory, we could prove that the creation of life requires no intelligence.

by Tigernut on Sep 26, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This is a litle bit off the topic, but you really place the blame for the Dolphins loss’ to the Colts on the offense, particularly the last drive. They had 3 minutes to get down the field and they stupidly took their sweet little time. It was the worst case of clock management I may have ever seen. The Dolphins took so much time to move downfield it that they ran out of time just before they were in reasonable range. I could understand if they had 50 seconds, or even close to 2 minutes, but that offense had over 3 minutes to get a touchdown. Running out of that much time is inexcusable.

Mmmph rrgh prrmf! - someone with his mouth gagged

by Dyl on Sep 26, 2009 12:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

really can place the blame*

Mmmph rrgh prrmf! - someone with his mouth gagged

by Dyl on Sep 26, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was talking about the entire game, not the last 3 minutes. That was a painful 3 minute offense. Their O blew a golden opportunity at the end, no doubt about that.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Sep 26, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, we’re saying the same thing from two different sides.

Mmmph rrgh prrmf! - someone with his mouth gagged

by Dyl on Sep 26, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great Game

I think this is going to be an amazing game, no matter who wins (the Bills). No way the Saints are gonna score 50 like a lot of analysts are saying, but they’ll be hard to stop. I think the key will be luring their D into the box with Fred Jackson early in the game and then exploiting Greer. All it would take then is some big plays on D and specials. No denying we need those.

by LosBillesdeBuffalo on Sep 26, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I love when the “Experts” all pick against Buffalo, and pick the other team to destroy them…Buffalo always seems to play so much better.

"Security comes from earning it--not seeking it." Marv Levy

by howedyhowe on Sep 26, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Disrespect is a huge motivator.

Delightfully Ignoring The Truth since 1995.

by NeverendingOptimism on Sep 26, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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