Fourth and Short

by MattRichWarren on Sep 28, 2009 4:07 PM EDT Comment 25 comments

For you active Tuesday Morning Quarterback readers on ESPN.com, you know the stats and reasoning behind punting ad going for it on fourth down. This post is for the other folks.

Last weekend I posted a chart that described when to go for it and when to punt on fourth down. That chart was put together with extensive statistics and game logs taken into account. Statistically speaking you should go for it every single time on fourth and one since the odds of making the first down far outweigh the odds of not getting the two yards to move the chains.

The Bills faced fourth and one on their own 28 yard line yesterday afternoon with seven and a half minutes left in the game. I knew it was going to be a tough call for the coaching staff but I hoped they would make the correct call and go for it. They elected to punt, the Saints marched down the field and scored, and the game was out of reach at that point with just over three minutes remaining. What is the only reason to punt there? It won't help you win the game. The only positive is preventing gift-wrapped points for the Saints. The call to punt there is a call to keep the game close instead of win the game. Even though the Patriots scored 14 points in 5 minutes against us week 1 there is no way the Bills could expect to do that. No team can expect to do that.

If the Bills had gone for it the outcome of the game would have likely been the same. The Bills were down by ten points already and with a score the Saints could still have run the ball with Pierre Thomas. The fact that they were down by two scores means they should have been more willing to go for it.

I'm not going to go as far as to say this is symptomatic of Jauron's style of play though I am sure some of you will. It's certainly an incredibly conservative decision. People here and in the media are saying the punt was the turning point in the game but I disagree with that. The Bills had already given up a long touchdown run and the offense had played like garbage virtually the whole game. Getting a first down there wasn't going to change either but it would have at least given them a sliver of a chance. My voice won't be joining the chorus of "Fire Dick" anytime soon but next time we face a 4th and short down by two scores inside 10 minutes you will hear my boos if Brian Moorman booms a punt.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Agreed the call on 4th and 1 didn’t cause the game. IMO the interception was a bigger play because we were right at or near FG range. The offense played uninspired. I can’t see how a team down only 10-7 at half and receiving the ball at HOME doesn’t come out with some fire but hey it is what it is. And the fact that we lost this game doesn’t bother me that much hey its out of conference the games we need are next week and against the jets after that…Lets go bills…squish da fish.

by evelazquez_83 on Sep 28, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It sucks either way.

"In every adversity there lies the seed of an equivalent advantage. In every defeat is a lesson showing you how to win the victory next time." (Robert Collier)

by norcaliangelsfan on Sep 28, 2009 4:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I read TMQ

and when we punted – I went – and I quote (because it WILL be in the article tomorrow)

boom goes the punt and TMQ wrote game over in his book. J2 did as well – the second we punted I knew, I was 1000% sure of it, game was over.

I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
Trent Edwards - Backup QB until furthur notice. Care to prove me wrong Trent?

by J2 on Sep 28, 2009 4:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The call to punt there is a call to keep the game close instead of win the game.

I can’t wait for TMQ to mention this when talking about Jauron tomorrow. It is a typical Jauron type move.

Even though the Patriots scored 14 points in 5 minutes against us week 1 there is no way the Bills could expect to do that. No team can expect to do that.

You can’t do that without trying. The fact that Jauron decided to punt instead of trying to go win the game says a lot, IMO. If any team should be well aware of how quickly a game can change, it’s the Bills. It’s too bad we didn’t go down fighting.

People here and in the media are saying the punt was the turning point in the game but I disagree with that.

Totally agree with you. I find it funny that anyone would call that the turning point. It was the nail in the coffin, not the turning point.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Sep 28, 2009 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It was the nail in the coffin, not the turning point.

Yep. That’s what makes it so frustrating as a fan. He GAVE UP. It’s disgraceful.

by Mark Parisi on Sep 28, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly nail in the coffin…

by evelazquez_83 on Sep 28, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yup K nailed it.

"In every adversity there lies the seed of an equivalent advantage. In every defeat is a lesson showing you how to win the victory next time." (Robert Collier)

by norcaliangelsfan on Sep 28, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And Easterbrook will indeed be on Cheerio Chaps like a flock of fleas.
Living in close proximity to the Chicago market, and bearing close witness to Jauron’s tenure there – I can say with confidence that the same things a very passionate fan base – and ownership – ran him out on a rail for, are playing themselves out in another passionate football town.
I could care less about his presser or sideline demeanor. Means not a whit. I’ve been quite willing to let him try to develop a team, and do believe there is more than sufficient talent on the roster to win. But with each game that passes, I am less and less inclined to give the benefit of the doubt that dubious gameday decisions aren’t rippling through the player ranks.

That being said – did anyone else laugh hysterically watching the footage of the entire SF coaching staff, waitresses and ball boys trying to get TOUGH GUY COACH Mike Singletary to focus in and throw his red challenge flag on Favre’s winning TD pass yesterday? If that had been Dick Jauron, Buffalo would be in flames.
Its bar stool psychology 101. Projection. Bills fans are understandably livid that a decade of mediocrity appears to this point to roll on. And when they see the head coach un-livid, their own anger ratchets up exponentially.

by LeClaireBill on Sep 28, 2009 5:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Singletary was probably in shock..........

but in Singletary’s defense the red flag is pointless with 2 min left to go in the half or game…..because all reviews are subject to the booth…..thus he cant challenge anyways.

"In every adversity there lies the seed of an equivalent advantage. In every defeat is a lesson showing you how to win the victory next time." (Robert Collier)

by norcaliangelsfan on Sep 28, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

very true, not the end result of the act, but the attempt – but my point was that much angst and bile was spilled last year that Jaroun didn’t have the accuity to throw a challenge flag. ie – couldn’t find it, didn’t know how to throw it, was too stupid and timid, etc – the same reasons that some use to hang jauron from pillar or post apply to all coaches. people just cherry pick to endorse the hard pricks they have to fire jauron.

by LeClaireBill on Sep 28, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was a check down call from a check down coach of a check down team with a check down quarteback checking down and out from playoff contention.

by jpheff on Sep 28, 2009 6:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I disagree with that. They are nowhere near out of playoff contention.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.

by MattRichWarren on Sep 28, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mathematically I agree. Attitude and approach, they are toast.

by jpheff on Sep 28, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Would you care to elaborate on what was wrong with the Bills approach to these 3 games that leads you to so
stridently believe that they are “toast?”

by LeClaireBill on Sep 28, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sure

Classic “snatch defeat” v. Pats, give up 20 points at home to a horrible Bucs team shut out by Giants and offense scoring zero points at home against the Saints. To those stellar performances add a large dose of injuries and you have “toast.”

by jpheff on Sep 28, 2009 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who cares how many points we gave up to the Bucs?

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.

by MattRichWarren on Sep 29, 2009 6:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they were out of contention as soon as Jauron was aloud to start this season. He brings a mind numb leadership to a young team, how long will the old man allow him to destroy these young careers.

by crazyoldmen on Sep 28, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BS

If we crank it up……. even with injuries, and Captain Checkdown starts throwing some downfield, we’ll be 7-2 by week 9.
IT CAN HAPPEN.
Look at the schedule.

"A failure becomes just one time at bat if you refuse to let it defeat you." Marv Levy.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Sep 28, 2009 8:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If we crank it up……. even with injuries, and Captain Checkdown starts throwing some downfield, we’ll be 7-2 by week 9.

I don’t know which of that is least likely!

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Sep 28, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Belichek and the Patriots Sunday

I say an interesting clip on ESPN tonight during MNF…

NE is winning 16-10 and faced with a 4th & 1 on their own 24 with 6:54 remaining in the 3rd quarter !!

What would you do ? Punt or go for it??

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> NE went for it and made a first down on a 2 yard run by Sammy Morris

by StandingBillFan on Sep 28, 2009 10:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

this is like daja vue all over again. it seems that Jauron gets mind lock under presure. he plays not to lose not to win. i look forward to van pelt taking over. Buffalo will not spend the money for a first line coach just like they would not pay for a first line player. TO is many things but a game breaker is the biggest, yet were was he. this scares me as he did not bitchabout it and he had a right to. 03-13.

by crazyoldmen on Sep 28, 2009 10:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

First of all, Jauron didn’t mind lock. He went conservative.

Secondly, AVP would be making the same money as any brand new HC we brought in just like Steve Spags, John Harbaugh, Josh McDaniels, Rex Ryan, Tony Sprano, etc. etc. It’s not like you need a retread NFL coach to be successful.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Ignoring the grumblings on Rumblings.

by MattRichWarren on Sep 29, 2009 6:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL yeah – mind lock?! The guy made the decision quickly, and at the very least, he’s stood by his decision steadfastly. He didn’t hem and haw – he made the call, and he made it quickly.

Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott

by Brian Galliford on Sep 29, 2009 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly, Brian and it’s these quick, steadfast , play not to lose decisions that I and others are tired of seeing. He may be tryng to change his stripes and be more aggressive but when it comes to “crunch time” he’s still Dick.

by Blaise42 on Sep 29, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs