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Defining the Buffalo Bills' roster bubble players

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by David Duprey - AP

For one last time, at least for another year or so, we're about to talk about the roster bubble.  It's pretty difficult to define a roster bubble, particularly if you're nerdy enough - like yours truly - to project an NFL's 53-man roster obsessively until your thoughts are no longer relevant.

Heading into their pre-season finale, the Buffalo Bills (and more particularly, its coaching staff) very likely has their final 53 already selected.  For fans, however, speculation rules the day this time of the year.  This post is meant to do three things: define Buffalo's list of "bubble" players, force you to pay attention to those bubble players, and serve as one last spot for y'all to formulate your thoughts before tomorrow's "Buffalo Rumblings Roster Projection Contest" begins.

Star-divide

Staying with the team, but they don't count yet (2)
RB Marshawn Lynch (Reserve/Suspended) - Lynch probably won't play tonight, and he begins his three-game suspension on Saturday.
WR James Hardy (Physically Unable to Perform) - Right now, Hardy is on Active PUP, meaning that he counts against the active roster, and that he can be activated at any time.  Active PUP ends when the pre-season ends.  It's very likely the coaches will give Hardy an extra six weeks to get into football shape and all healed up by placing him on Reserve PUP.

With those two moves in mind, the Bills will have 72 active players.  That list, obviously, needs to be whittled down to 53 - so 19 more must go.

Certain cuts (11)
Let's face it - if any of these eleven players make the roster, every single one of us will be floored.

QB Matt Baker, RB Bruce Hall, WR Felton Huggins, WR C.J. Hawthorne, TE Tyson DeVree, OT Nick Hennessey, C Christian Gaddis, DE Ataefiok Etukeren, DT Derrick Jones, DT Corey Mace, LB Ryan Manalac

That list puts us down to 61 players.  We've now officially reached the bubble portion of our roster.

THE BUBBLE (15)
I've got 15 players listed as "on the bubble." All of these players have at least something going for them that could keep them on the roster through the weekend.  By current math, eight of these players will make the final roster, while seven will try to latch on with other NFL teams.

RB Xavier Omon, FB Corey McIntyre, WR Justin Jenkins, TE Jonathan Stupar, OT Jonathan Scott, OG Brandon Rodd, DE Chris Ellis, DE Copeland Bryan, LB Marcus Buggs, LB Jon Corto, LB Alvin Bowen, LB Ashlee Palmer, CB Cary Harris, FS Ko Simpson, SS John Wendling

Picking eight of these names as keepers may seem easy, but it's made a bit more difficult by potential surprises.  We've got four such scenarios below.  For every scenario that comes to fruition below (and we're not saying any of them will), pick another name from the above list and toss it onto your final roster.

Surprise cuts/roster decisions (4)
TE Derek Fine - He's dealing with a hamstring issue, and to say the competition at tight end is heavy is an understatement.  It wouldn't completely shock us to see him released, even after being a 2008 fourth-round draft pick.

OT Langston Walker - WGR 550 reporter Paul Hamilton is already on the record as saying Walker could be a surprise release.  I'm not sure I buy that, particularly given Demetrius Bell's bad back, but Walker's apparent fall from grace seems legitimate.  I can't fathom a scenario in which the Bills would be comfortable entering a season with three highly unproven tackles - but in the spirit of "it wouldn't shock me," we'll list Walker anyways.

DE Ryan Denney - The Bills, for the first time in what seems like forever, actually have some depth at the defensive end position.  They've got three young ends - two listed on the bubble above - that have proven worthy of roster consideration.  It's difficult to imagine the team cutting Denney, but it's not impossible.  They could also dangle him in trade talks if they try, as some suspect they might, to swing a deal for veteran linebacker depth.

CB Ashton Youboty - Speaking of veterans that are candidates to be dangled in trade talks, meet Mr. Youboty.  25-year-old corners with some promise aren't exactly easy to come by, but the Bills have solid depth at corner without considering Youboty.  (There's also a reason I listed Cary Harris as "on the bubble" above.)  Buffalo obviously doesn't feel the need to actively try to trade Youboty, and he certainly won't be released.  But if the right offer comes along - particularly if it involves that aforementioned veteran linebacker - the Bills might just pull the trigger.

***

That's it.  That's about as ironclad as you can get on a pretty ambiguous topic.  I'm off to Ralph Wilson Stadium to take in tonight's game; the open thread will air at 6:00 PM ET, and I'll have a recap up for y'all when I get back from the stadium.  Enjoy yourselves this evening.

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McIntyre

he’s been running real hard this preseason. I’m not sure he get the nod over Omon if they keep 4 – but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he sticks

I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying

by J2 on Sep 3, 2009 4:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I would be shocked if McIntyre is on this team...

those carries at the end of the recent preseason games were simply to help out McIntyre and get him some playing time, this offense doesnt use a FB much at all and I think the coaches knew about 3 weeks ago that McIntyre was not going to make the cut.

by NorCal BillsFan on Sep 3, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well like I said – i’m not sure he’d get the nod. I’m not pointing to this previous game – but he’s run hard in GB and Chicago.

I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying

by J2 on Sep 3, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As well he should run hard...

he hasn’t had many reps and he knows his FB career could be coming ot end soon…

by NorCal BillsFan on Sep 3, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

if they do keep 4 then it probably comes down to catching ability – which Omon wins

I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying

by J2 on Sep 3, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or just as likely, ST ability!

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Sep 3, 2009 5:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Hey K, How rapidly would you change your opinion of the Bills FO if they actually did the unthinkable and cut Kelsey this Saturday?

Captain of the "Promote Bob Sanders to Deffensive Coordinator" band wagon.

by CanadianBillsFan on Sep 4, 2009 6:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They’d have to do a lot more than that! I’d like to see some wins!

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Sep 4, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How about icing Schonert!

Wouldn't it be ironic if this team imploded and it had nothing to do with TO?

by thefourwinds on Sep 4, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hope they do cut Kelsay,

because I get the impression K is getting ready to put operation “Live Boy” into effect :-)

"When troops flee, are insubordinate, collapse, or are routed in battle, it is the fault of the general." – Sun Tzu. Yes Jauron, I am talking to you.

by Joe P. on Sep 4, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dude his head would explode before he could do anything of the sort.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Sep 4, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A roster projection contest! sweet!

I was born in Buffalo, and NO, it's not a suburb of New York City

by Ghetts on Sep 3, 2009 4:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I was going to comment, but if theres a contest involved then I’ll keep my far fetched crazy ideas to myself :)

I was born in Buffalo, and NO, it's not a suburb of New York City

by Ghetts on Sep 3, 2009 4:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Add Kelsay to Surprise cuts

Although I don’t think they will do it, they should cut Kelsay. This coaching staff is in love with this guy for some apparent reason. He is obviously our worst pass rusher and is way over paid. I really think Ellis, Bryan and Denney are better than Kelsay. There is no way he should make this team. I would keep four DE’s, cutting Denney and Kelsay and going toward our youth. They look promising rushing the passer and can’t be worse than Kelsay. Sorry for you Kelsay fans out there but I just don’t see his worth being paid that kind of money.

by csc06258 on Sep 3, 2009 4:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Sorry for you Kelsay fans out there

Bueller??? (crickets)

by thejimbo on Sep 3, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They’re not going to cut them both. Who would they put in on running downs?

"We want to win immediately. To say you're building is an incomplete sentence. ... You're building for a future coach and general manager."
-Marv Levy

by TEMSON on Sep 3, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ellis and schobel would do. If i had a choice I keep Denney over Kelsay.

by csc06258 on Sep 3, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Surprise CUT!

Not so much a surprise, but eityher Denney or Kelsay will be cut by Saturday, most likely Denney since DJ has no reason to worry about next years cap, but it could be Kelsay if the coaches are high enough on Maybin

by NorCal BillsFan on Sep 3, 2009 4:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

GO FOR THE YOUTH!!

OBD won’t though. Kelsay should, but is not going anywhere. Hopefully, the next offseason, somebody will come to their senses and realize how overpaid he is after MAHEM comes on strong at the end of the year. 2nd that for Denney and keep Ellis.
KEEP: Fine, Walker, Youbooty, Ko. Injuries can be brutal and these guys have experience.
KEEP: Corto. We kept a roster spot for Tasker for years, and this guy may actually be able to play/backup at LB for real in another year. Remember a short LB from Miami….?
Stupar. Hopefully, we get him on the practice squad. I like him. Just needs to develop.

"A failure becomes just one time at bat if you refuse to let it defeat you." Marv Levy.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Sep 3, 2009 4:55 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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