Bills should stick with the 4-3 defense
by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 8:00 AM EST
in Buffalo Bills Opinion
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PrintThe new hot topic around here is switching to the 3-4. Many Buffalo Bills fans believe that switching defensive schemes is a good idea, and that it will (eventually) fix the laundry list of problems on defense. I argue that it's change for change's sake, and it will actually hinder the Bills moving into 2010 and beyond.
"We can't think of a roster less suited to play a 3-4 defense in the league."
That quote, from Gregg Rosenthal of Pro Football Talk, sums up my thoughts on the transition in the easiest way possible. In their defensive front seven, the Bills have very few players that would transition well. Ends Aaron Schobel, Chris Kelsay, Aaron Maybin, and Chris Ellis are all too small to play 3-4 end. They would, in theory, transition to 3-4 OLBs and rush the passer. Aaron Kampman, Pro Bowl end for Green Bay in their 4-3 defense under Bob Sanders, made this move this past offseason. His numbers were the worst since he took over as a full-time starter in 2004. When Maybin was coming out of college, many draft experts pegged him as a 3-4 OLB, but it's a position he's never played. Maybin's progress in the scheme may be slow to develop.
Some have said defensive tackle Marcus Stroud could man the nose tackle position, a spot he's never played in his career. While he could play this position, his skill set is better suited to be a 3-4 end, and I don't think he's quick enough to play on the edge at this point in his career, particularly on his surgically repaired ankle. The short-armed Kyle Williams has the quickness, but not the physique, of a 3-4 DE. While he might be successful at that spot, he certainly isn't the prototype. Backup Spencer Johnson might be the best DE on the roster after a transition. He has the long arms and quickness/size combination to help him be successful.
The majority of the current linebackers on our team - and there are a bunch of them - couldn't be further from ideal 3-4 fits. Marcus Buggs, Bryan Scott, and Nic Harris are too small to be able to shed defenders, a must in the 3-4 with fewer down linemen. The same can be said for Paul Posluszny. The biggest problem Poz has when he rushes is he gets engulfed by blockers. His skill set is best utilized in the same vein as Brian Urlacher, who was at his best when he was able to roam and make plays behind wide-bodied DTs. Kawika Mitchell would probably be able to move to an ILB position. He's big enough to blitz and shed blockers to make plays. Keith Ellison could transfer to OLB in a pinch, but again, he's not best utilized in a 3-4.
Finding 3-4 Players
Thirteen teams utilized the 3-4 defense this year, according to The Buffalo News. With more and more teams playing the 3-4 defense, it has become increasingly difficult to find the right players to fit the scheme. True 3-4 nose tackles in particular are hard to find - so much so, in fact, that the Chiefs, transitioning to the 3-4 this year, employed Bills castoff Ron Edwards and a player who hadn't played in six year, Kenny Smith, to be the centerpiece of their defense.
Success
The argument many make is to look at the success of 3-4 teams in the league and point to the defensive front as the reasoning. It's true many recent Super Bowl winners, such as the Patriots, Steelers, and Ravens, have used this defensive scheme. But the Colts rode a Tampa 2 defense to the title, the Giants ran a 4-3 when they defeated the Patriots, and this year three of the four finalists all ran the 4-3. The lone exception is Rex Ryan's Jets defense. They had that stud NT in Kris Jenkins, until his injury against Buffalo forced him out of the lineup. The Vikings, Saints, and Colts all use a 4-3 front to great success.
It's true the Bills' rushing defense was atrocious last year, but moving to a 3-4 wouldn't fix that problem. With the problems on the offensive side of the ball, it would make more sense for the Bills to upgrade their defense as opposed to completely revamping it. If the Bills are to be competitive any time soon, they should hedge their bets on an aggressive 4-3 defense. Adding a linebacker, defensive end, and rotational defensive tackle is much easier than finding new players at virtually every position in the defensive front seven.
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very good and logical evaluation
The Bills are a team that needs so much, talent-wise (understatement). It would detract from any rebuilding effort to attempt a switch to 3-4 at present. The personnel focus to do that would leave too many current holes unfilled.
Having said that, given the Bills’ somewhat illogical track record, I’m sure the new DC will want to go 3-4.
Some teams today, use a hybrid, sliding back/forth from 4-3 to 3-4. That would be an easier transition depending on who we draft. I don’t see a big splash in FA (like we saw in the HC choice!) I would hope the Bills address the glaring need on offense, i.e. OT and QB then LB on defense.
"I have become comfortably numb" P. Floyd
You are absolutely correct
The word about Coach Gailey is that produces schemes that fit the players, not the other way around. Let’s hope that is true.
I don’t disagree with the Bills having players that don’t fit a 3-4.
But the Bills should be building for the long term. I couldn’t care less if Kelsay or Denney or Marcus Buggs or whoever don’t fit.
The team should employ the scheme it think will be most successful. If that means taking a few lumps the next year or two while the transition takes place so be it. I don’t want a perpetual 7-10 win team, I want to see a Super Bowl winner and that takes long term thinking.
Now whether the 3-4 is the ideal scheme is a different question. I’m not really adamant about scheme because we’ve seen that both work.
But the reason for deciding on something shouldn’t be because of the players currently on the roster. A large majority of them aren’t going to be on the next serious playoff contender. So don’t hamstring yourself 3 years down the road because you’re trying to make a run at the wild card next year if everything breaks perfectly. That’s the best way to be a annual mediocrity (or worse).
In the current front 7 there’s only 3 players that are worth scheming around, and that’s Poz, K Williams and Maybin (and Maybin’s a question mark). Everyone else seems to be a backup at best or a player who won’t be effective 2-3 years from now. The front 7 is going to need an overhaul shortly, so you might as well get players that fit what you think will work the best.
by Pistol on Jan 25, 2010 8:36 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
The Bills are not a dome team
Take a look around the NFL. How many cold weather outdoor teams run the 4-3? Are the Bills really that much smarter than the rest of the NFL? The 4-3 is based on the theory that smaller quicker players can beat larger guys, which works fine if it is not wet and/or snowy. Poor weather conditions commonly found at playoff time negate speed and render the 4-3 much less effective. Those of us who remember the Brown’s game saw a Bills team pushed off the ball like they were on ice skates. And, I wouldn’t exactly call the Browns O-line dominant. Sure, the 4-3 can work in poor weather if you have a ridiculous amount of talent like the Bears and Giants did, but look how they have done when just one key player goes down. Why handicap your chance of being successful on a consistent basis? Take a look at the games you play in your division. The Pats, Jets, and Bills all play outdoors. The Fins play on natural grass (correct?) which also slows the game down, especially if wet. You know you will be playing these teams outdoors, plus whatever the rest of the schedule throws at you. Many southern teams play on natural grass as well.
We will never have a better time to switch to a 3-4. It is the first year of our re-re-re-re building process. We have a new coach and GM. We don’t have a QB. "I’m not sure how anyone can expect Buffalo to make the playoffs without blind offseason induced homeristic optimism being the majority of their reasoning." – kaisertown……..granted kaisertown said that about last years squad, but it applies even more so to the 2010 group. We don’t have the personnel to effectively run either defense. Who cares if we have 1 or 2 more starters are better suited to a 4-3? And, who really cares if our fringe depth players are better suited to a 4-3. Is that really the best argument for keeping the 4-3? Time to do what is right for the Bills long term. Time to switch back to a defense that history has proven works well in the conditions the Bills play in. Time to use a brand of defense that the fans of Bills football like to watch. Big, tough, and nasty! If you want small and fast, go through the McDonnalds drive through and order of the dollar menu.
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
by Joe P. on Jan 25, 2010 8:39 AM EST reply actions 5 recs
The 4-3 is based on the theory that smaller quicker players can beat larger guys, which works fine if it is not wet and/or snowy.
That’s the Tampa 2 philosophy. You can have big, beefy DL and an active LB corps behind them and be successful in any weather. Ask the Eagles defense.
We don’t have the personnel to effectively run either defense.
Obviously I disagree. I think we’re three players from a 4-3 defense and probably 6 or 7 from a 3-4.
My argument isn’t based on fringe players. It’s based on if we get a stud LB our LB corps is set with Mitchell, Poz, new guy, and we have good back up players. It’s when those backups start that we’ve been in trouble.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 8:42 AM EST up reply actions
Philly's weather is not like our.
The Vikes are the gold standard for non tampa two 4-3s and we don’t have a “Williams Wall” Williams….. our Williams would have trouble winning a backup spot for the Vikes. So, that is two DTs you need because Stroud is on his way down. Mitchell is coming off an injury and prior to injury was so good at that very Defense you want the Bills to run that the Giants let him walk. Poz’s move to the outside might help, but that is yet to be proven. We are in trouble either way.
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
If you don’t like the Philly example, there’s always the Giants and Bears. Plenty of cold weather teams have had lots of success with the 4-3 in bad weather. Green Bay and Denver had some good stretches too before switching over and so have the Bills.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
and to add, I think the ridiculous argument talent is pretty weak. Can’t you say that about all the 3-4 defenses that have as much success as the Bears and Giants too?
And was that Giants defense that good talent wise? They had a ridiculously deep and talented DL. And Kawika Mitchell was their 2nd best LB. They had young unproven CBs playing with over the hill guys like Sam Madison and RW McQuarters and mediocre safetys.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
should read “ridiculous talent argument”
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
I was refering to the front 7 talent
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
But can’t you still say the exact same thing about the Steelers and Ravens front 7s?
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
I would have to look, but hasn't the Steelers and Ravens run D averaged near the top of the league
sure, you will have some ups and downs, but since the Bills switched to the 4-3, it has averaged mostly down compared to our 3-4 defenses.
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
Scheme doesn’t equate to success. Players do. The Chiefs 3-4 sucked because they didn’t have great players. Any system will work with great players.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Nice!
I’ve been saying this to other fans for years, but they just don’t seem to get it.
Great plays don't make great players; great players make great plays.
It is true, but only half the argument.....and really is a cop out for not discussing the other half
Every defense can’t be the 85 Bears. You are not going to consistently field players that are great. The easy to spot great players are taken in the top of the draft and no team is that good at drafting elite talent in the bottom of the draft and in mid to lower rounds. A team can’t overcome picking a scheme that puts them at a disadvantage. You have to put yourself in the best to position to consistently field a winner by taking every advantage available including weather and ease of drafting players that fit the scheme.
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
A team can’t overcome picking a scheme that puts them at a disadvantage.
How does the 4-3 put them at a disadvantage? If your problem is size, Buffalo can get bigger without a massive scheme change. Even under the absurd assumption that Pat Williams wieghs 317 pounds, the listed weight of the Vikings opening day front 7 is bigger than the Steelers. Even the Eagles, with an average size of around 300 pounds for their starting DTs are only 10 or 15 pounds off from what Pittsburgh puts out there. Other than size, are there any reasons a 3-4 works better in the cold or snow than a 4-3 does?
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
And that’s 10 or 15 pounds for the front 7 as a whole, not per player.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
You have to put yourself in the best to position to consistently field a winner by taking every advantage available including weather and ease of drafting players that fit the scheme.
You keep saying it but I still don’t see how either scheme is better for a specific weather type.
I agree with the last part of your statement and that is the 4-3. :-)
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
Nobody is denying that lightning can strike
If the 4-3 was so great for cold weather teams like GB and the Cows, then why have they switched?
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
They switched because their defenses were awful and they hired new DCs.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
Now isn't that what we could be doing too then???
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Our defense wasn’t awful. We had one solid pass rushing DE, a great secondary, and good starting DTs. We have a couple adequate LBs who got injured and exposed our lack of depth. Adding a stud OLB to push Ellison (if he is tendered) back to a backup role where he belongs strengthens the roster and defense considerably. Plus thsoe guys are available to be drafted. Stud NTs aren’t.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
Really?
Our defense wasnt awful? Did you forget the pass D was that high due to us not being able to stop the run? we don’t have good DTs, stroud is gettin old and the others could barely make a team somewhere else. Yes, we had injuries. But we are also over paying players who are horrible. Move schobel/maybin/ellis to LB’s..stroud will rotate DE and DT, we need a younger NT and possibly a DE if williams/johnson can’t fill the role.
Our DTs weren’t the problem with the rushing defense. The lack of competant LBs was. Misdirections killed Kelsay and the third and fourth string linebackers we were fielding weren’t getting the job done filling their gaps. If you notice most teams don’t run between the guards well against us. That’s because of Stroud and Williams.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
Also our D would have been much better had our offense actually had decent possessions. If you watched our games our D was actually pretty good as the game started but as the game went on and the time of possesstion started piling up on our D because our offense never could do anything with the ball, our D started getting tired and giving up those long drives. We do not need to switch to a complete differant defense, we need to get another competent LB to play the outside, and probably some a couple better guys (whether developed or brought in) for depth at LB and on the D-Line and we need our offense to be better, and lastly, we need WAY better strength and conditioning not only to avoid injuries but also to make it so our defense didn’t get as easily tired as it did this yeah if it has to stay on the field longer.
The entire front 7 was the problem
DT’s included.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Yeah but you have to admit that if theres one area that we can take a positive from and delay the makeover, it’s at DT. We’re kinda solid at the DT position, as opposed to being weak at DE and LB.
by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 26, 2010 3:01 AM EST up reply actions
You are entitled to your opinion.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2010 9:08 AM EST up reply actions
Because Denver fired Shanahan and hired an offensive coach who hired a DC who wanted to run it. I think that if the best available DC was a 4-3 guy and not Mike Nolan, they would still be running the 4-3. And Mike McCarthy always wanted to run a 3-4 and his overall success with the team and an extension led to him having enough pull to switch over. Supposedly it took the addition of Dom Capers to really win over Ted Thompson on the switch though.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
but
we did have half a “Williams wall”. Emphasis on did. That’s another inherent problem all together. i.e. keeping folks once we find them.
"I have become comfortably numb" P. Floyd
Well I disagree with you on Kyle Williams. He’s a Pro Bowl alternate for a reason. We don’t have a “Williams Wall” but they are the best in the league for a reason.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 9:50 AM EST up reply actions
Let's take a look at the Williams'sss'ssss'ssses
Kyle – Height/Weight: 6-1/306
Kevin – Height/Weight: 6-5/311
Pat – Height/Weight: 6-3/317
I am not sure about Kyle’s weight being accurate, but there is no freaking way Pat Williams is only 317. Point is, that Kyle doesn’t have the size or bulk to be the kind of player Kevin and Pat are. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a good player in the system the Bills ran last year, but he is not a ProBowl alternate in the Vikes system which you seem to think the Bills should run.
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
So there are only two great DTs in the league? Those guys are special, nobody’s arguing that point. Kyle Williams has shown his worth as a 4-3 DT. He would be the first guy off the bench in the Vikings system because those guys are the top DTs in the league.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
Haahaha....do I really have to look up all the DTs...we were talking about the gold standard
and No, K Williams would not beat out Jimmy Kennedy, Height/Weight: 6-5/320, who was first off the bench when Pat got hurt and missed a few games.
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
To use a favorite of Brian, “Well… that’s like, your opinion, man.”
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
I’ll disagree. Kevin and Kyle have very similiar roles. It’d be nice if Buffalo had a big fat two gap DT, but I don’t think any team in the league runs a defense with multiple two gap DTs. Maybe Baltimore asks Gregg and Ngata to do it. Kevin Williams is huge, but he’s a pass rusher who makes a lot of his run stops in the backfield by getting off a block and not just holding his ground.
And the Eagles and Giants do just fine with smaller DTs than Buffalo has.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
Exactly Joe
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Agree to Disagree?
Your points are all very valid on scheme and players on the current roster vs. what it would take for the Bills to convert to a 3-4 defense for next year. I also have some points I’d like to counter with, the first being that this will NOT be a 1-year transition. Everything I have personally heard from Gailey’s response to what the Bills may do on defense leads me to believe that he is looking to use a hybrid type of system. I think he would like a NT like Terrence Cody from Alabama (potential 2nd round or late 1st round) or Dan Williams from Tennessee, if available, when they make their 2nd pick. This type of player would be on the field for 1st and 2nd downs, but then the defense would convert to a lighter, quicker attacking style (4-3 Def) on passing downs.
The LBs, well that’s easy. If the Bills are serious, they would draft Rolando McClain (1st round) to man one of the ILB spots with Kawika Mitchell being the other, leaving both Poz and Maybin (hopefully) at OLB. Another idea would be to move Schobel to the Texans and try to go after their FA OLB Ryans. Schobel also just stated that he thinks he could handle playing 3-4 DE. There are options out there, but it won’t be as easy as snapping one’s fingers. I actually think Kelsay could play DE, as well, in the 3-4 (think he may have in college actually).
Pistol – I agree with you… make decisions now to be truly successful 2-3 years down the road. If you base the decision off current players at or near the end of their careers, we will see the perpetual turnover without progress!
All of this being said, if the Bills do stay with the 4-3 (say Bates becomes the new DC)… then I would love to see them retain Bob Sanders as the DL Coach and bring in FA Aaron Kampman to play one of the DE spots. Sanders was Kampman’s coach during some of his best years in Green Bay and he would be an immediate replacement for Schobel, if the Bills need to trade him to a team in Texas. Kampman is coming off an injury and poor season as a 3-4 OLB, so he’ll probably be signed below what he normally would cost had he continued as a 4-3 DE last year.
My 1st Round Hopefuls: 1. Claussen, 2. McClain, 3. Best OT Available
2nd Round: 1a. T. Cody, 1b. Dan Williams
DC Chocolate City!
this will NOT be a 1-year transition.
Right. It would be a three year process. I think it would be an unecessary three year process when you could find upgrades for the 4-3 position and field a fully capable defense in 2010. I’m all about rebuilding and that’s fine. This team needs more talent either way. That doesn’t mean we need to throw away the players that have indentified themselves as valuable in some capacity. I’m talking about adding two or three starters when moving to a 3-4 would require 6 new starters and about 6 new backups.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
how is that again?
4-3 Starters – Maybin – Williams – Stroud – ??
Mitchell – ?? – Poz
3-4 Staters – Williams – ? – Stroud
Maybin – Mitchell – Poz – ?
We can sign backups off the FA wire or practice squads
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
My 4-3 starters would be:
Schobel/Maybin-Williams-Stroud-Kelsay/new guy
Mitchell and then some combo of new LB and Poz
- Now we have depth at LB spot
3-4 starters:
Stroud-Nobody-Williams (though Spencer Johnson might be more suited than Williams)
Maybin/Schobel-Poz-Kawika-Ellison?
Poz would be awful in a 3-4 and none of the players on the roster have ever played it before. We’d have no backup LBs worth anything and no NT which is the most important position on the defense.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
Three for NT, DE for Williams who I think would look like below average as a 3-4 DE, OLB. Maybin, Schobel, Stroud, and Poz would be playing out of position and frankly of those I see only Stroud or Maybin having any success and Maybin’s such a huge question mark. The only person I would see as a legit starter in that scenario is Mitchell who has the bulk to play ILB.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
I think your right.
Although my favorite deffensive scheme is the 3-4, we’d be horrible next year if we switched to it. We’re just not suite for it, at all. Right now anyways. Our current front are all taylored for the 4-3 and a lot of our better players would be jetisoned in a move to the 3-4. I mean of our current deffensive line players, only Stroud and Johnson could actually move to the 3-4 with any type of success. So what would we do with our few Pro-Bowl caliber players that we have in Kyle Williams and Aaron Schobel? Our current players just don’t allow for a smooth transition to the 3-4. Thats not to say that we couldn’t draft and sign FA’s with a possible future switch in mind. We could always do that. But a switch next season would be desasterous.
Personally I think that the smarter switch would be that to a more traditional 4-3, with bigger LB’s and a strnger line. We’re only a large LB (Rolando McClain anyone?) and a powerfull DE away from being able to run a traditional Giants or Vikings style 4-3. Or better yet, we’re already suited to play a Saints type speed 4-3, without it necessarily being a cover-2. Staying with the 4-3 makes a alot more sense and can bring us a lot more success imidietly.
by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 25, 2010 9:07 AM EST reply actions
Until Schobel says he is coming back to the Bills, you can't count on him at any position
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
True. He actually said he might prefer to be a 3-4 OLB a couple days ago which I thought was weird.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
That is weird.....do the Texans need one?
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
They run a 4-3.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
right........how about the Cowgirls....is Schobel better than Spencer ?
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
Schobel would be the Texans second-best DE I would expect. He would probably start at LDE over Antonio Smith for them. Mario Williams is their RDE.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
yeah, I can see that he could play DE for the Texans....just tring to figure out the OLB comment.
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
I think it was just in response to a question like “would moving you to a 3-4 OLB make any impact on your decision?” or something like that.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
If I was the Texans and I had the chance to start Williams abd Schobel I’d jump on it. Plus its close to home for Schobel so I doubt that he would turn down that oppertunity.
by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 25, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
Between Barwin(2nd rounder last year) who has played well down the stretch and Smith who played pretty well and of course Williams we have no need for more DEs.
www.manningface.com
It was just a thought based on Schobel’s willingness to be near his kids. He only has a few years left anyhow.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
Well then get rid of that depth and we can talk. Gees, so greedy those Texans fans ;-)
by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 25, 2010 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
greedy?
hah after DE and WR we have pretty much zero depth anywhere. I’m pretty sure if we had injuries like you guys had we wouldn’t have won 4 games.
www.manningface.com
LOL, I’m just trying to figure out a way to get Schobel onto the Texans roster. He said that he wanted to be closer to his family (in Texas) and I just don’t see the Cowboys bringing him onto their 3-4.
Besides, even you have to admit that it would be pretty great to have two 10 sack DE’s on your roster.
by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 25, 2010 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
PS. SB nation really needs a sarcasm button, because thats what I was trying to be when I called you greedy. I’m well aware that the Texans have just as many depth issues as the Bills. You also have more studs than we do though.
by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 25, 2010 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed. Thats why I actually want the Bills to trade him ASAP. Lets be honest, his time in Buffalo is done.
by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 25, 2010 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Personally I think that the smarter switch would be that to a more traditional 4-3, with bigger LB’s and a strnger line.
That’s what I would prefer to see as well. The tough, grinding, aggressive 4-3 of Philadelphia or even Minnesota.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
Or a hybrid. While I agree with Matt’s excellent analysis completely, it seems to me that the moves he wants the Bills to make would put them in a position to run a hybrid D in the coming years. Add a wide-bodied NT, a good-sized DE and some bigger LB’s (I think we need two — one a starter to replace Ellison and the other a back-up) and we are in a position to employ a 3-4 look when the circumstances call for it, while sticking to the 4-3 as our basic defense. As an added advantage, at that point the transition to a full-fledged 3-4 would be much easier if we decided we really needed to make it.
I’m not necessarily advocating for a move to a 3-4 down the road, just that this team is so far from a 3-4 it shouldn’t even be an option.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
Yes, but there’s a lot to be said for having a 3-4 look available. Perry Fewell used it effectively a number of times last year. Anything you can do to stay unpredictable is always a good thing, and there are situations (i.e., when you are facing a team with a very strong passing offense but not much of a running game) where the 3-4 can be useful. My suspicion is that teams are going to move in the direction of a hybrid more and more now that Belichick appears to have taken it up.
If Buffalo’s goal for using the occasional 3-4 was to be deceptive, couldn’t they just use a zone blitz with a DE dropping into coverage and rush a couple LBs instead. I’ve never bought the argument that a 3-4 is a deceptive defense unless you run it with constant creative blitzes like Rex Ryan. I think a zone blitzing 4-3 is even more deceptive than your run of the mill 3-4.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
You can run all styles of blitzes out of a 3-4. It’s true that you can zone blitz out of a 4-3 as well. If you can line up both ways on different occasions it gives your opponents more to prepare for and can confuse them if you are clever about it (as Belichick usually is). I really don’t think the 3-4 is better than the 4-3, but if you do both (mainly 4-3 but a 3-4 look every now and then) it’s one more weapon in your arsenal.
Very good article...
Im open to either defensive scheme because they both have their ups and downs. I do agree that our current roster is not set up to make the switch either.
Stopping the run is obviously our biggest problem and in my opinion that falls on our front seven’s shoulders.
DE: Schobel and Maybin are the only 2 DE’s on our current roster that I want to see in a Bills uniform next season. Schobel is an all-around player and Maybin has the potential. Im not going to mention anything about the rest because I think they are worthless.
LB: Poz and Mitchell are solid starters and will be for years to come. But our problem has fallen on our previous coaches scheme of small / fast players will outrun larger defenders and make plays. Keith Ellison is a prime example of why that doesnt always work and I also hope to not see him in a Bills uniform next year. He consistently was trampled by OL and lead blockers. He may have had a lot of tackles but thats because he was either jumping onto the pile late or the RB’s tripped over him after he was pancaked.
If we can upgrade 1 DE, 1 DT and 1 LB this off season I think we will be greatly improved to stop the run.
haha forgot DT
DT: If you could combine Stroud’s size with Williams’ technique and motor we would have one of the best DT’s in the league. However we cant do that and our depth at DT does not provide much help come game day. We need to find a space-eater that demands double teams and can clog holes thus far allowing our LB’s to make plays. Stroud and Williams are the only 2 I would like to see in a Bills uniform next year.
Well if stopping the run is the biggest priority we should stay in the 4-3 and upgrade our LB corps. The 3-4 is only successful at stopping the run when you have a stud NT which we can’t get this offseason unless we swing a huge trade or sign Vince Wilfork who may or may not get to free agency. That’s the only way a guy like Poz could even sniff success in a 3-4.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 9:56 AM EST up reply actions
How about the draft? We can get a big fattie there can't we?
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
Where? Neither Suh or McCoy could play 3-4 NT. About the only guy close would be Dan Williams of Tennessee. We’re going to bank our entire move on drafting one guy who will be gone by the time we pick in the second round?
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
No...as Buddy says....we need to get lucky....and find a fatter Kyle Williams later in the draft
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
Well I’d rather make sound decisions and get lucky than just draft guys hoping to get lucky.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
in other words
make your own (good) luck…
"I have become comfortably numb" P. Floyd
Right.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
can't we do both?
Make a sound decision on a NT in the middle rounds who needs some time to develop, and get lucky that he develops faster than projected because Nix is a genius at evaluating talent?
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
OK. But who are you going to stick there in the meantime?
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
whoever we draft....let him learn on the job
It is not like he has to learn a lot of pass rush moves…..he basically just has not get blown back off the ball and require two blockers to move him
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
Wow. As Juno said to he stepmom when she said, “When you leave I’m getting dogs.” “Oh aim high!”
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
I will aim high at that position next year. Point is that it is not a hard position to start in as a rookie
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
couldn’t agree more with this article.
aside: why didn’t the chefs use glen dorsey? he mustve been a huge bust.
by quantumuprising on Jan 25, 2010 9:30 AM EST reply actions
Because he was agreat 4-3 DT but not big enough to be a 3-4, hence my argument against the move here. They essentially wasted that pick. Personally, I’d love to see the Bills trade a fourth rounder for Dorsey and plug him into the rotation to be Stroud’s replacement.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 9:57 AM EST up reply actions
now there’s an idea.
but even before their switchover, had he shown any potential at all? i feel like he was so hyped before the draft and i haven’t heard a thing about him since.
by quantumuprising on Jan 25, 2010 9:59 AM EST up reply actions
He was a’ight in his first year. Not great but not awful. NFL.com says he started 14 games at DE for the Chiefs this year.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
I agree. But I`d love for the Bills to do a lot of trades, truth is that that is just not very realistic. I want to see who will actually be available via free agency before we actually start talking trades. For all we know guys like Dorsey, or Merriman might actually be available come FA.
by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 25, 2010 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
And while we`re talking trades with the Chiefs, how about we go after Timba Hali too? He was out of place as an OLB but is a very solid 4-3 DE.
by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 25, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Are we playing for the playoffs next year
or building something for 2-3 years from now?
None of these players should hinder the Bills’ staff from changing schemes. It wouldn’t be easy, but it also isn’t out of the questions to switch over.
You bring up Marcus Buggs, Nic Harris and Keith Ellison….Who cares if those guys wouldn’t be on the team anymore. I say good. We don’t need any of these undersized, supposedly-quick-but-aren’t LB’s any longer.
Build to be a consistent winner, and not just to have a winning season.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
You bring up Marcus Buggs, Nic Harris and Keith Ellison….Who cares if those guys wouldn’t be on the team anymore.
You’re missing the point. You need solid starters and backups. In an ideal world those guys are third and fourth stringers while playing STs. If you switch to a 3-4 you don’t have starters or backups. We’d be at square one and while I agree with your 2-3 years argument I still don’t think we’d field a competent and deep defense for at least three years. The Bills have so many holes it’s not goign to matter but why create even more?
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 9:59 AM EST up reply actions
i agree with K. i dont care if Buggs Harris Or Ellison are here next year…we really cant afford to draft and play 225 lb linebackers. If we are going to Run a 4-3, then we need to bulk up like Minnie, Chicago or the Giants….If we are going to switch to a 3-4 then yes it will be two to three years before we acquire the necassary peices to run an effective scheme. I DOnt care about scheme…We have had here in Buffalo top ten defenses using both schemes…the only difference is that when we had much bigger players in 04-05 in our cover two system…wichever one we play, we need to make sure that we get the right personal to play it…
Hey, if we are in the market for relics, somebody give John Madden a call
by Stabby Mcshank on Jan 25, 2010 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
we really cant afford to draft and play 225 lb linebackers.
Exactly. I want my starting LBs to be Poz, Mitchell, and new guy. Ellison has proven to be a solid reserve when called upon at MLB and OLB. Buggs and Harris are special teamers and Harris might be able to put on enough weight to be a competant LB. Who knows on that one, though? I’m not banking on Buggs or Harris making any significant contribution.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
agreed
when safeties coming out of colledge (i.e. Taylor mays) are bigger then your lb’s you are gonna be 32nd in the league vr.s the run
Hey, if we are in the market for relics, somebody give John Madden a call
by Stabby Mcshank on Jan 25, 2010 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
agreed
daryl washington from TCU would be perfect. 6’3", 234, 4.5-4.6 40 time, and brame to gain a few more pounds without losing speed if necessary. If we pick up Aaron Kampman (please, please, pretty please), draft LT in Rd 1 and trade down in round 2 to get an extra 3rd rounder to take washington, we now have the pieces in place for a successful 4-3 with an additional 3rd rounder to take a flyer on a WR, DE, or DT project to groom. thoughts?
Confucius say, "Man who go to bed with itchy butt, wake up with smelly finger."
how about Spikes in the second round. I don`t know how big he is, but I`ve herd good things about him. Mind you the fact that he’s coming out of Florida also means that he might be overated, and most of Floridas players tend to be.
by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 25, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
character issues and slow. More suited to playing 3-4 ILB. No matter their size, a 4-3 MLB has to be able to cover some ground in a hurry. Washington has speed and decent size as well as a frame that can be built on. I say he can play at his current speed and still carry 245lbs. He’s 6’3" with long arms and legs. He’s no Urlacher but that’s a once in a generation type player.
Confucius say, "Man who go to bed with itchy butt, wake up with smelly finger."
Yes!
Agreed with all that. I don’t care which scheme it is, as long as there are the right players here and no hindrances. Size is indeed a must.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jan 25, 2010 10:42 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don’t care which scheme it is, as long as there are the right players here and no hindrances.
That’s our commonality in this argument. I just think the current roster is so far from the 3-4 “right players” that it would be too big of an obstacle.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
Question for you Matt. Are you oppsed to the 3-4, or simply opposed to running a 3-4 next year? I’m thinking if we start preparing for it now, we could make for an easier transition 2 or 3 years down the line. But please, no 3-4 next year.
by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 25, 2010 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not opposed to any type of defense. I would prefer the Bills play a fast and aggressive defense. That can be attained through both. I think the team has enough issues on offense that completely overhauling the defense at the same time as trying to plug major holes in the offense will be too much at once. As K has said repeatedly, it would be a major blowup and rebuild job. I’d rather take the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” route and improve the D where it needs it without a major overhaul. Replacing a guy like Marcus Buggs with a guy like Rolano McClain would improve the defense dramatically by making the LB position better from starter to reserve.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
I’d rather take the "if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it" route
Yeah but here’s the problem, our D is broke ;-)
Actually I agree with you, this year we should primarily concentrate on fixing the O, and then gaining some size on the D. I honestly think that we’re only 2 or 3 players away from having a very good D. Our O on the other hand would have trouble competing in the CFL.
by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 25, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
Our D was barely competent and had no depth this year...
If a change is to be made, we wouldn’t be thaaaaaaat far off.
Obviously we need solid starters and backups, what team doesn’t? Why can’t we find any players for a 3-4 scheme? Denver turned Mario Haggan into a usable player. Tully Banta-Cain became a good player after spending time in the scrap heap. Justin Bannan is a nice rotational guy in Baltimore. It can be done. That’s my point. Sure we need to overhaul the front 7 AND find more depth, but its not all that different from what we currently need in our 4-3.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jan 25, 2010 11:09 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Sure we need to overhaul the front 7 AND find more depth, but its not all that different from what we currently need in our 4-3.
That’s where we disagree. :-)
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
I guess so
What we’ve had obviously hasn’t been good enough….
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jan 25, 2010 11:36 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
defense by virtue of offense
With this upgraded O-line:
LT – Anthony Davis
LG – Levitre
C – Wood
RG – Butler
RT – Bell
we run the ball heavily on the left side, actually get some time of possession so our defense can rest, our run defense will greatly improve. Trying to stop the run for 40 minutes is ridiculous! I don’t care what williams wall you have.
Confucius say, "Man who go to bed with itchy butt, wake up with smelly finger."
agreed.......
nice post
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
I have no doubt Wood will recover given his character and mentality. I have a feeling this will serve to further motivate an already tough gritty young man!
Confucius say, "Man who go to bed with itchy butt, wake up with smelly finger."
I love Wood ..... "Laugh it up, fuzzy ball" ...... and hope he does
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
it’s more his leg than his mentality that has to recover…
...so I guess now I root for chan gailey...
steel plates baby!
I just hope they use the bigger one ala Poz’s second surgery! It’s the NFL man, why skimp! WE have the tools, We have the technology!…
Confucius say, "Man who go to bed with itchy butt, wake up with smelly finger."
Do we know Butler will recover? And stay healthy? Maybe we’re in an OK place with Hang backing up Wood and Incognito backing up Butler, but I still would feel better with another depth player at T or G, depending on where they see Butler fitting.
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by WhyBillsWhy on Jan 25, 2010 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
By no means is the line complete
We have Hang (may have to play C, Wood???) and Chambers in backup. I still feel that RG has to be upgraded but RG can be had pretty easily in the 2nd and 3rd round of the draft. Winning is a continuous build and rebuild process.
Confucius say, "Man who go to bed with itchy butt, wake up with smelly finger."
Yeah Chambers won’t be on the team next year. Tackles will see a new guy, D Bell, Butler probably, and either JScott or JMeredith duking it out for the last spot.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
Know what would be neat, K? You should write up your rationale for moving to a 3-4. :-) I’m not calling you out just would love to hear what someone who is for the switch thinks about how that defense could be successful, what it would take, etc.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
Not once have I said I wanted a 3-4
I just don’t want to stick with a 4-3 simply because of a few guys. If Gailey and Buddo want to switch to a 3-4, so be it. I just don’t want to hear these same excuses for why this team doesn’t full fledge rebuild like it should.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jan 25, 2010 10:40 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
OK. I thought you were on that bandwagon.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
i don't think im really on the bandwagon
but im bored as heck, so i’ll write one up.
...so I guess now I root for chan gailey...
Cool.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
As I said in my post the other day
I don’t care. I want the team to win and get better. If the new coach and new GM think they should stick with the 4-3 I’m fine with that. If they want to switch, I’m okay with that too.
The 3-4 doesn’t guarantee success, but then neither does the 4-3. I think it hinders more on the new defensive coordinator and what personnel gets brought in.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
or maybe it hinges on....... I can poke fun because I never make spelling errors ;-)
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
People who are the most vocal about the 3-4 defense are the ones who know the least about it......
They think its just the Scheme that makes that defense good………its not……like anything on the defensive side of the ball its all about the players………(I believe offense can still be successful even without ELITE skill players) but a defense is only as good as its playmakers (See Pittsburg this year after Troy Polamalu went down!)
This is another classic example of people playing too much Madden…….
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 10:29 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
WOW!!!
Bold statement
People who are the most vocal about the 3-4 defense are the ones who know the least about it……
Weak argument to back it up
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
Come on.........you're reading the same thing Im reading.......
Not ONE person has given a decent reason to go to a 3-4 Defense……..they just say “lets go to the 3-4” as if its some magic cure all………………..
Atleast MRW has the huevos to say clearly why its a bad idea……………I would love for someone (Anyone) who is a pro 3-4 to effectively convince me why that defense is such a better one then we employ now……..
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
I tried to give some of those reasons above in my first post....guess I didn't do a very good job
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
you said the same thing I did..........
you talked about Playmakers………and how the 4-3 isnt good unless you have the great playmakers……….
I said the same thing about the 3-4…….and even cited Pittsburg as the example……..but yet your argument wasnt as weak as mine………..according to you.
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
Matt has the eggs to say it?
Hahahahaha!
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jan 25, 2010 11:18 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
eggzackly :-)
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
Wow.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
wrong!!
Pittsburgh went down hill because of the style of 3-4 they play. They zone blitz constantly and without a crazy everywhere at once playmaker in the secondary (i.e. Polamalu) the zone becomes easy pickens’. Not to mention Pitt had some linebacker issues this year as well. No pressure & no ball hawk=zone blitz failure!
Confucius say, "Man who go to bed with itchy butt, wake up with smelly finger."
by superchops on Jan 25, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
exactly.......
without the playmaker…………..the defense suffered……….you just restated my point……..They didnt adjust the style……….whether its because they just assumed it would still work with Troy…….or what I dunno…….
So again…….it was the PLAYERS…….not the Scheme
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
players are important....scheme is important....why is that such a difficult concept?
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
but on defense I dont believe scheme is as important as the players..........
thats why Im not just for a switch to the 3-4 for the fact that is different than what we do now…….
Why is that such a difficult concept………..
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
Dude, It's about Synergy!
Tailor your scheme to the players you have available, then build your roster to further enhance your scheme! It’s like stereo system in your car. You have some very basic components, maximize your current assetts and then UPGRADE! UPGRADE! UPGRADE! UPGRADE!
Confucius say, "Man who go to bed with itchy butt, wake up with smelly finger."
so you say tailor your scheme to players yes?
Well the players we have right now are in NO WAY taliored to anything but what they’ve been running the last 3 years………………so Im not sure where you’re going with this.
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
POV
I guess I still feel that our D hasn’t been all that bad considering all they’ve been asked to do. Yes we need upgrades, but I don’t think Poz and Mitchell are bad LBs. Just not porperly utilized. We need to keep Bob Sanders as our D-line coach because the line play improved last year. We need a REAL MLB, a stud DE that can pass rush and stop the run, and a SS that can actually play SS.
Confucius say, "Man who go to bed with itchy butt, wake up with smelly finger."
I dont think the D is that bad either........
I even said it in post around here somewhere…………The defense was playoff calibur I think…….but there were atleast a half dozen games where they just got worn down because of the inept offense kept them on the field for 35-40 min a game……and even the best defense would wear down after that kind of punishment.
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
What I'd like to see
Sign Kampman and for god’s sake play Maybin. See what he’s got. Let him succeed or let him fail but quit jacking him around. Draft Daryl Washington, TCU. Move Pos to OLB. Trade Schobel and give him a chance to play for an interested team of his choosing. He’s a good player and can get us valuable draft picks I truly believe. Play Whitner at SS for 16 games and see what he’s got.
Confucius say, "Man who go to bed with itchy butt, wake up with smelly finger."
Why is Kampman such a high priority? He’s 30, isn’t he? Is he really part of a long term solution?
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
Nope. But he’s a two-year stop gap while Maybin and the rookie mature.
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by WhyBillsWhy on Jan 25, 2010 10:37 PM EST up reply actions
Meh. I don’t see the need to spend that much on a stop gap. If we’re rebuilding let’s get young players in here with some upside.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2010 9:09 AM EST up reply actions
I don't want to swich just because it is different....when have I ever given that as a reason?
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
you cited the 3-4 as the defense that BILLS fans like to watch...............
which I dont know if thats because you polled fans………….or just because it’s different than what the team has done for the last ten years or so….
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
I was referring to Buffalo's Blue collar mentality
IMO, the big, nasty smash mouth, “you shall not pass” 3-4 is more appealing that the pretty, trixsy, bend but don’t break and give up lots of yards 4-3.
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
Yeah, I don’t think Matt or anyone else is saying stick with the status quo as the 4-3. Can’t you have a Gandalf-style 4-3? Pretty sure you can.
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by Brian Galliford on Jan 25, 2010 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
LOL!!! But not with Hobbits as DTs and LBs :-)
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
the pretty, trixsy, bend but don’t break and give up lots of yards 4-3.
Pretty sure that’s the Tampa 2, not the 4-3. The Eagles play a nasty, smash mouth 4-3. Giants did until this year. It happens.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
The Bills D of ’03 & ’04 was a 4-3, but played the way a 4-3 should be played. Big DTs, super MLB, Big Fast OLBs and Man Cover DBs.
I would like us to model our D after that.
Delightfully Ignoring The Truth since 1995.
by NeverendingOptimism on Jan 25, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Me too.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
im smiling
this is the most truth i have read here recently..rec’d.
i believe firming that one scheme is not superior to any other…its the athletes and the application of the scheme that make it effective….
Hey, if we are in the market for relics, somebody give John Madden a call
by Stabby Mcshank on Jan 25, 2010 10:32 AM EST reply actions
A brain surgen and a Proctologist are both doctors,
but they employ different “schemes” do to the different geographical locations of their surgeries. Sure you could let your Proctologist do brain surgery, but then you end up making statements like norcali did above :-)
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
ohhh, somebody isnt happy.:( Im not sure he was going after you, Joe, with that comment…i have to agree with him though..i have read plenty of posts that say we need to switch to a 3-4, and leave no explanation as to why.
Hey, if we are in the market for relics, somebody give John Madden a call
by Stabby Mcshank on Jan 25, 2010 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly.......It definitely wasnt a shot directly at Joe.........
I like to think Im open-minded………but all Im asking for is some reason to believe that this defense (3-4) is the cure-all for what ails us………….
I actually think had we had a competent offense the defense was playoff caliber…….but the offense was so putrid that people blame the defense for breaking down at the ends of games………when its just the fact the guys on D just ran out of gas from being on the field so long.
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
LOL!!! OK....maybe I am still ticked off that the refs gave the game to the Aints last night
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
I agree with you to some degree. However, all Favre had to do was run forward and slide and they’d have been the team kicking a field goal. They were lucky to be in the game turning the ball over so many times. AP should be thanked for coughing that ball up inside the 20. He needs to get with the program.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 25, 2010 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
Yep...the Vikes definitely beat themselves...can't win turning the ball over 5 times.
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
by Joe P. on Jan 25, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Rectified.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
Unless you’re playing the Buffalo Bills!
Buffalo Rumblings Premiere League 2009 Champion
"Am I a hero? I really can't say, but yes - I am." --Michael Scott
MP3 recommendation of the week: Pearl Jam - Unthought Known
by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 25, 2010 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
even the Jets lost to the Bills following that formula
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
Exactly, the Viks played the better game, but they were just horrible in the turnover department. And that brainfart from Favre at the end of the game didn’t help either.
by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 25, 2010 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
I, personally, think this whole argument is meaningless. Both schemes exist because both work.
No matter what they run, Buffalo needs to get bigger and more physical in the front seven. Until that happens, teams will just keep running it down our throats to avoid waking the monster that is Jairus Byrd.
I agree with Matt insofar as it would be much easier to field a 4-3 than a 3-4 in 2010. Beyond that, who cares? Get bigger and better in the front seven, and none of this really matters.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Jan 25, 2010 10:47 AM EST reply actions 5 recs
Exactly.................
like I’ve been saying……..on defense……..its about the players………….not so much scheme…..
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
At that’s essentially where I am on this whole thing. Rec’d.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
Wait… I’m supposed to say something lame like “Recoppotamus” or “Rectacular”, right?
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
I think Rectangular works
When I get that feeling, I need Recxual Healing. Ooooooh
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jan 25, 2010 11:20 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
lol............
Recoslovakia……………….
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
Reco Suave!
Hey, if we are in the market for relics, somebody give John Madden a call
by Stabby Mcshank on Jan 25, 2010 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
Rec Republic now that the Soviets fell. :-)
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
thank you Brian, ever the voice of reason. By the way, Gretzky has a “t” in it. Don’t disrespect the Great One.
I get the feeling that those who are clamoring for the 3-4 just really want the same kind of catharsis they were hoping for when DJ was fired. I don’t see anything inherently better about the 3-4 than the 4-3, and I would much rather completely gut the offensive side of the ball than the defensive. But yeah, get some big boys in there.
^ They did gut most of the offensive line … drafted new WRs over the last few years … brought in new QBs … the offense is somewhat on the right track … though we do need someone to replace Owens and a new OT and a QB. But at least the gutting has already been done.
As others have said, the front 7 needs a purge and a restocking of bigger, physical players in the worst way.
i disagree
I think that everyone on the offensive side of the ball save the 2009 rookies and Fred Jackson should not feel too safe right about the time that FA starts up. Especially if there had been a new CBA in place.
by k8 on Jan 25, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
And this is one of the problems
I agree with Matt insofar as it would be much easier to field a 4-3 than a 3-4 in 2010.
Taking the easy route. How about doing the right thing for the long term success of the team. People want everything to be easy. Easy button, easy payments, easy women, easy chair, easy fix….how about a little hard work and patience to allow it time to work. How long do we have to keep proving that the 4-3 is not the best defense for the Bills in their current location. Now if we build a dome or are relocated to LA, then my opinion of the best defense for the Bills will change.
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
i do not understand why the 4-3 defense is inherently inadequate for our geographic location. If someone could explain this to me coherently I may start to buy what you guys are selling.
Joe, I really am having a hard time wrapping my mind around the idea that the 4-3 has proven not to work in Buffalo. It hasn’t worked because the players sucked. The 4-3 is a good scheme – otherwise, it wouldn’t be used in the NFL.
Again, I go back to my “who cares?” argument, because as I said, NO MATTER WHICH SCHEME, we obviously need to get bigger and more physical. I never advocated the easy route, even though you seem to think I did.
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by Brian Galliford on Jan 25, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
I agree the 4-3 can be a good scheme,
but it is more difficult for it to be a good scheme playing in the division and in the conditions the Bills play in. Again, if you look around the NFL at teams that play in similar conditions, the 3-4 is the dominant defense used. I believe that is not an accident.
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
It’s not a hard and fast rule, either. At some point, this thing will turn the other way – everyone will be using the 3-4, the 4-3 will become en vogue again, and everyone will move back. It’s cyclical for a reason.
Keep in mind that NE started using predominantly 4-3 looks last year, too. That’s Bill Belichick. It’s not about scheme – it’s about putting your players in the best possible position to succeed.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Jan 25, 2010 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
but it is more difficult for it to be a good scheme playing in the division and in the conditions the Bills play in.
In 2003 and 2004 the Bills had the #2 ranked defense in the NFL both years while playing in Gregg Williams 4-3 style defense.
I am partial to the 3-4 because that is what the Bills played in their glory years, but I’m not married to it either.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
Is that even true though?
If you’re counting Baltimore as a cold weather city, then you’ve got to count Philly and DC too.
If You’re using the Jets, then the Giants count.
So you’re left with New England as the only team that has been running the 3-4 for awhile. And while they’ve been a very good defense, they’ve hardly been great over the years. And that is with Wilfork, Seymour, Bruschi, Vrabel, McGinnist, etc…. I’d say NE had very good, but not great personel and the results matched it.
Chicago has had a lot of success with the 4-3 during the 2000s. Urlacher is a total stud, but their front 4s were never really elite. Green Bay was all over the map running the 4-3. They’d have great years and down years. Year one was a big success in the 3-4, but who knows if that will continue. I guess you could say that Buffalo has been all over the place with their 4-3 as well.
Baltimore has been fantastic for a long time, but how much of that is Ray Lewis, excellent pass rushers and talented, tough to find space eaters like Siragusa and Ngata.
Pittsburgh has been great too, but their personel almost matches their success. They’ve got a couple stud pass rushing LBs, a HOF MLB (in my opinion that’s where Farrior is going) and a talented veteran DL.
Philly has had pretty consistent success with the 4-3. Washington has been under 20 points per game for most of the 2000s as well.
And you’ve got Cleveland and Cincy doing whatever Cleveland and Cincy have been doing. I’m not seeing where the 3-4 has been so much better for cold weather teams.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
Good post...I am not so sure about the Bears not having a great front 7 or the Skins having that good of a D
Philly has done very well, but I seem to remember them losing some game they shouldn’t of late in the season in poor weather….will have to check on that. Also, Jimmy Johnson was a freaking genius….it will be interesting to see what happens to their D now that he is gone.
I think that Pittsburgh is a great example of what a 3-4 can be over a longer period of time. Sometimes it is great, most of the time very good, but rarely is down at the bottom. Again, the place where I feel the 3-4 can really shine is late in the season especially in poor weather. Losses to Pittsburgh and Cleveland come to mind, but I am sure there are other examples. It is not like the 4-3 can’t work with bigger players, as long as the Tampa 2 philosophy is also scrapped.
Brian mentioned the cyclical side of the argument. Wouldn’t you agree that the NFL is evolving into more of a passing league. Rules protecting the QB and WRs, along with they easy with which officials seem to throw the pass interference flag seem to indicate that giving offenses an advantage in the passing game is the direction the league wants to go. I would think that the LBs of a 3-4 would have a better chance of covering a TE or RB than a DE in a 4-3. Wouldn’t that also explain why many teams are switching to the 3-4? Are not LBs for a 3-4 easier to find in the draft than DEs for a 4-3? From what I have witnessed over the past few years, it sure has hell seems like it :-)
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
I think that Pittsburgh is a great example of what a 3-4 can be over a longer period of time.
But they may have the best DC of all time calling the plays in Dick LeBeau.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
ugh.
we didn’t want him, remember? he wasn’t good enough to earn the promotion from db’s coach to DC. despite already having a great track record…
...so I guess now I root for chan gailey...
We had Jerry Gray who was doing a great job. LeBeau got fired in Cincy and came over here as a defensive consultant and assistant head coach. Then the DC job in Pittsburgh came open again, the place where he started working for the Rooney’s, and he went back. I don’t think anyone faulted the Bills for that.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
the shortest distance between 2 points is a straight line
to get from where we are to a very good defense in a straight line would mean getting a few players that would contribute from day one – period.
That’s not to say it’s a short term instant win-today fix. It means we can build a good defensive foundation quicker. Is that so wrong?
"I have become comfortably numb" P. Floyd
by fansince60 on Jan 25, 2010 10:51 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Very well said. The overall lack of talent isn’t a reason to give up on the talent that we actually do have.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
may i suggest
we switch to the one-six -one defense? its only drawbacks are that yes we still will have the worst run defense in the league…but it greatly decreases the strain on our defense…Fewer reps mean fresher players and less chance of getting hurt….
Hey, if we are in the market for relics, somebody give John Madden a call
by Stabby Mcshank on Jan 25, 2010 10:53 AM EST reply actions
If Gailey and Nix want to run a 3-4 there’s no reason they shouldn’t go for it. Our existing style of defense has consistently been run all over and spends entirely too much time on the field. Even if it means taking a step back next year, I wouldn’t let our existing personnel dictate the type of defense they want to run. There’s no reason to be attached to the subpar miniature unit we’ve seen over the past four years.
Aaron Maybin is Chris Ellis 2.0.
by Port Royal on Jan 25, 2010 11:20 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Subpar miniature unit
Hahaha!
I agree with you in the fullest
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jan 25, 2010 11:26 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
i believe the pc term is Little people unit
Hey, if we are in the market for relics, somebody give John Madden a call
by Stabby Mcshank on Jan 25, 2010 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
subpar miniature unit
TWSS
"I have become comfortably numb" P. Floyd
i hope that people knew i was joking with the 1-6-1 defense…
Hey, if we are in the market for relics, somebody give John Madden a call
by Stabby Mcshank on Jan 25, 2010 11:29 AM EST reply actions
I hope people thought you were serious and have been googling “1-6-1 defense”.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
Maybin is the biggest question
We used the #11 pick on Maybin last year. Can he be successful in a 4-3 long-term? I think he could be a stud OLB in the 3-4, but I don’t have high hopes for him as a DE in the 4-3. So where do you see Maybin fitting in? I am not saying that I’ve given up on the guy yet, but I am not high on his potential at DE. Especially when everyone on here seems to agree on one thing…we need to get bigger along our front 7.
What makes you think Maybin would be a stud in the 3-4?
He didnt play in it in college……………
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
Maybin has proven nothing in a 3-4 and seen success in a 4-3 in college. I’m not banking on anything from him yet.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
I have to disagree
Your basing this entire arguement on opinion and no facts. Marcus stroud is in the best shape of his life now so why wouldn’t he be quick enough around the corner. This is how I see it working. Up front it would be Stroud, Have williams bulk up and play in the middle, spencer johnson.
Schobel olb, mitchel, Poz, Rotate maybin and kelsay if there running. Bottom line the only real good part of our defense was our secondary. We were terrible and run defense and our pressure up front was nothing special. What do we possibly have to lose? Yes next year we might be mildly more suited for a 4-3 but in 2 or 3 years well be better because we did it. I say might because the truth is neither you or more knows how any player will respond to the switch you can sit here and say you do but you have no idea.
Oh its just that simple huh?
This is how I see it working. Up front it would be Stroud, Have williams bulk up and play in the middle, spencer johnson.
Then after you say that you end with this gem………….
I say might because the truth is neither you or more knows how any player will respond to the switch you can sit here and say you do but you have no idea
Straddle the fence much?
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Isn't he just being honest?
I wouldn’t say that is fence straddling.
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
by the way that doesn't mean I think Williams can bulk up to be an effective NT
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
He claims that switching to a 3-4 is easy.......but doing this, that, and this.....
then says 2 sentences later that no one knows how players will respond…………..“you may say you do, but you have no idea”
Sounds like he’s trying to play both sides here………..
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Where did he say it would be easy?
I took it as being honest about whether these guys would be good in their new positions. I don’t know for sure either.
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
He never used the word "easy"
but he said it so matter of factly that he portrayed it as easy…………….and its just not so matter of factly with the personnel grouping we currently have……..and its not something that’s gonna change after just one offseason either.
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working. I do that for probably another hour after lunch too, I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. - Peter Gibbons
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 25, 2010 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
I just think we know what we have, we can build on that immediately. Don’t get me wrong there is room for immense improvement! That can come with time. I do feel that our defense is 2-3 players from top ten. We just need to actually accomplish something on Offense so we can give them a rest and oh, I don’t know, maybe give them a chance to play with a lead so that they can actually pin their ears back and kill the QB!
Confucius say, "Man who go to bed with itchy butt, wake up with smelly finger."
We’ve kept hearing for the last 3 years our defense is just a few players away. Yet again, a WTNY statement. At some point, maybe, just maybe the talent that’s there isn’t as good as we think, especially in the front 7.
Ok, so instead of being a few players away in a 4-3 we’re more than a few away in a 3-4. I don’t get how that’s any better.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
Defensive Stats from 2001 till now (from pro football reference):
2001: Pts Allowed – 29th, Rushing D – 26th, Passing D – 13th, 21st overall
2002: Pts Allowed – 27th, Rushing D – 29th, Passing D – 6th, 27st overall
2003: Pts Allowed – 5th, Rushing D – 8th, Passing D – 2nd, 2nd overall
2004: Pts Allowed – 8th, Rushing D – 7th, Passing D – 3rd, 2nd overall
2005: Pts Allowed – 24th, Rushing D – 31th, Passing D – 19th, 29th overall
2006: Pts Allowed – 10th, Rushing D – 28th, Passing D – 7th, 18th overall
2007: Pts Allowed – 18th, Rushing D – 25th, Passing D – 29th, 31st overall
2008: Pts Allowed – 14th, Rushing D – 22th, Passing D – 13th, 14th overall
2009: Pts Allowed – 16th, Rushing D – 30th, Passing D – 2nd, 19th overall
I don’t think a 30th ranked run defense is a “few” players away, injury or not and it’s clear, we haven’t been in the top 20 in rushing D, let alone top 10, since 2004, Mularkey’s first year with all of Gregg Williams’ players.
My point is like Brian’s – I don’t care what defense we run, but this team needs a major talent upgrade on the front 7. If it means revamping the defense and taking a few years, as Gregg Williams did a few years back to make the D good and transition from a 3-4 under Wade Phillips to a 4-3 as he did, I’m for it. I just am not buying the whole notion we’re “a few players” away, becase if we were, improvement would have been seen a few years back. 6 years in the bottom half of the league in total defense isn’t good, nor close to turning the corner.
by sabre74kkn on Jan 25, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
for reference, the 2000 defense under Wade Phillips:
2000: Pts Allowed – 18th, Rushing D – 6th, Passing D – 4th, 3rd overall
I know we had a 4-3 in 2003 and 2004. Hence my post about Wade Phillips following.
That jump from 29th to 8th was Gregg Williams 3rd year, which also was the 3rd year under a new defensive scheme, going from the 3-4 under Wade Phillips in 2000, a team that had an aging defense and lacked depth, to the 4-3 which he eventually got going by his 3rd year. My point is that, a coach like Gregg Williams got fired in his 3rd year but turned around the defense enough to get the Bills the following year on the cusp of the playoffs.
So based on that, you’d think in 3 years our defense would have got better under Jauron and the Levy/Modrak/Guy/etc. drafting team, but guess what? It didn’t. It’s been no better than average during that time. Perhaps the new regime will fix it but frankly, it’s been agreed on this board the talent level in the front 7 is not quite up to par.
So what’s to give? Injuries? Sure. Staff turnover? Maybe. The biggest constant during that time are the players, and guess what. They stunk in 2006 and for the most part in 2009 they still stink.
Again, 3-4 or 4-3 aside, if we KEEP saying we’re a few players away, which seems to be the case every year, when is it going to get better? Even keeping the “core” guys of who we have, I still dont’tsee a marked improvement next year unless we get deeper at DT, better production and athleticism outside of Shoebel, and a couple of quality LBs.
To defend the 4-3 based on the fact that we’re a few players away is false, because if we were, we would have drafted those players over the last 3-4 years and have the ship righted. It’s not.
So based on that, you’d think in 3 years our defense would have got better under Jauron and the Levy/Modrak/Guy/etc. drafting team, but guess what? It didn’t. It’s been no better than average during that time
Exactly. They missed on McCargo, Whitner hasn’t been great, and they failed to bring in enough good LBs.
Even keeping the "core" guys of who we have, I still dont’tsee a marked improvement next year unless we get deeper at DT, better production and athleticism outside of Shoebel, and a couple of quality LBs.
But you do see that marked improvement if we switch to a 3-4???
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
Good question … to be honest, I don’t think I can answer that question. All I know is that I want better players and if those better players that come in mean a scheme change and perhaps a year or two or learning the new scheme, I think it’ll be worth it for the long term future of the franchise, instead of a band-aid by drafting or signing FAs (one to two players) that may work for a year or two, but then we still haven’t addressed issues such as DE depth, LB quality, etc. Instead of plugging in holes in a somewhat leaky wall, why not simply build a better wall?
I respect your argument MRW, I just think we can do better than the players we have. If it means a couple years of sucking, I don’t mind. I want to see a defense that does well for years … not just a season here and there.
I do too. I think the best way to improve the roster from top to bottom is add guys on the top and cut the guys in the bottom. Old first string goes to second, second to third. If you draft McClain, for instance, and Keith Ellison moves to your backup. Well then you have a stud OLB, good MLB, good OLB in Mitchell, a solid backup in Ellison at all three positions and a guy like Nic Harris ends up third string and special teams where he belongs.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 9:15 PM EST up reply actions
To quote Mike Singletary, “I want winners”.
Do the guys on our defense, mired in a losing, mediocre culture, have what it takes to take us to a level where we are contenders? I’m not so sure.
Well you can say that about virtually everyone in our friggin organization. Most of them were winners in high school and college.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 9:15 PM EST up reply actions
2003 and 2004 we had a 4-3 defense.
I just am not buying the whole notion we’re "a few players" away, becase if we were, improvement would have been seen a few years back.
Why is that? Why would we have seen it a few years back?
According to your stats the Bills went from 29th against the run to 8th in one year. 27th in scoring to 5th. Why couldn’t the Bills go from 30-16-19 to top ten, then?
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
Your basing this entire arguement on opinion and no facts
Welp it’s classified as an opinion piece, so yeah.
Have williams bulk up and play in the middle
Do you see how thick he is? How much weight can he realistically add?
We were terrible and run defense and our pressure up front was nothing special.
Yeah. I know. Get a couple better players instead of getting 6 new ones plus reserves.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
I really dont have a preference when it comes to 4-3 vs 3-4. I just want to field an agressive defense that comes to play. I want an ATTACKING defense… not a REACTING one. I dont care if we play a hybrid anything or what players play where. Put the right players in the right situations and get them to attack. It also might depend on what we do in the draft. But Im all for whats going to get the job done… if that means more of a 4-3 one week, and a 3-4 the next, so be it. Just get it done Chan!!
"Be a wuss at home! Be a man on Rumblings!" - Kurupt
well, your talking about a hyrbid. not a base 3-4
but you draft towards a base 3-4 because you believe it’s the direction to go. with the front seven Buffalo has now, it’s open to consideration at least. Gotta be.
in a salary cap era, no single unit (offense or defense) should be consistently sub-average for such a long stretch.
misreply...
i seem to be doing that a lot.
in a salary cap era, no single unit (offense or defense) should be consistently sub-average for such a long stretch.
people arguing for a 3-4 are deluding themselves. it would take at least 3 more years to draft enough talent to even begin to assemble an effective 3-4. add a decent down lineman or two along with a stud LB and suddenly the bills have a decent 4-3 defense. spend a couple years drafting players that can fit both schemes, then think about switching, but not now.
most of my posts get deleted :(
To rebut your post in a sentence
That is why you need to change the Bills roster over… why is that a bad thing? Denver did it, they didn’t have the personnel. Start building a 3-4 defense. It’s not like the Bills should have high expectations for next season, anyways… so who cares if the roster isn’t suited for it right now, make it suited.
"I don't agree with a damn thing you say, but I would die for your right to say it."
"If I had to do it all over again, I'd do it all over again."
agreed......the Bills need to quit wading around in the pool of mediocrity
Jump in and start swimming or get the hell out of the pool!
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
anytime soon...
If the Bills are to be competitive any time soon, they should hedge their bets on an aggressive 4-3 defense.
I think this point has a lot to do with it. I don’t think that it’s realistic to expect this team to be in a championship game this time next season, and optimistic to see them there in two years.
I don’t disagree that it’s not an ideal front seven to make a switch, but I don’t see a new regime trotting a signifcant portion of this front seven back out there.
Both Nix and Gailey will build from the inside out. You drafted 2 OL early last season, it’s time to refocus back on the other side of the ball. Even though Maybin was your first overall last season, he projects better at 3-4 OLB. Your point about him never playing a 3-4 OLB? Who has? They don’t play that defense in at the collegiate level.
And the point about 13 teams running the 3-4…? Doesn’t that mean there are 19 teams running a 4-3? How easy has it been to replace Schobel? Hasn’t been easy at all. How much harder can finding a spaceeater be than finding a guy who (by definition) has to be a FREAK (which is what a successful 4-3 end IS).
Really don’t think the “status quo” people around here are on the pulse of this team anymore.
We’ll see.
in a salary cap era, no single unit (offense or defense) should be consistently sub-average for such a long stretch.
by kgun201 on Jan 25, 2010 4:11 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I recant if...
Jim Bates is hired. Then, obviously I’m wrong.
in a salary cap era, no single unit (offense or defense) should be consistently sub-average for such a long stretch.
Rec'd
I agree with most of what you said…good point about the 3-4 in NCAA, it does get run by a few teams, but not many at all.
by NorCal BillsFan on Jan 25, 2010 9:27 PM EST up reply actions
waste of a post
You mentioned the following players:
1. Stroud – get rid of him…not worth the money and always hurt…… (Jeff wright)
2. Shobel- let me retire or move on…. (bruce smiith)
3. Maybin…wil be like Marcellus Wiley – (phil hansen)
4. Kelsay – wayyyyyyyyy to much money for the output (leon seals)
5. Denney – if he can play…I can play.
6. Veek – Poz – Ellison -—-Bennet – Colan – Talley
7. witner – waste of a number 8 pick
Look at the D—-no talent! Why keep them! Any of them (except veek and Poz.) You need pro bowlers…
Perry was a great DC to have to deal with talent…uhh no talet like that.
1. Yeah Stroud started 15 games in 2009, 16 in 2008. What an injured jerk. He’s robbing the Bills blind.
2. Why do we want a guy who had 10 sacks to leave again?
3. I’m waiting on Maybin to compare him to anyone.
4. Agreed.
5. ??? When did I mention Denney?
6. Did you just compare Keith Ellison to Darrly Talley?
7. Whitner – has what to do with the front 7?
Why keep them! Any of them (except veek and Poz.) You need pro bowlers…
Poz and Veek aren’t Pro Bowlers… why keep them in your scenario?
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Denver
Denver went from 27th to 7th making the switch and had 8 different starter (might have been 9) from ’08 to ’09. It can be done.
I am one of the rare people who believe we have top 10 talent on our defense at this time…if healthy and with Schobel’s return. I don’t believe we need to make a switch but at the same time I don’t believe the personell is so ill equiped to make a switch. If you lose Schobel (which is likely….either by trade or retirement), you are as desperate for a DE in a 4-3 as you would be for a NT in a 3-4. We would have Kelsay, Maybin and Ellis as our only DE’s in a 4-3. That is pathetic.
There is as good a chance that Maybin will be a stud OLB as a stud DE…there is as good as chance that Maybin will be a bust OLB as he will be a bust DE.
Really if you want to make the switch it is not hard. You can find a stop gap at numerous positions. If you target a guy like McClain and believe he is a future all pro (and of course…believe he will be there at 9) then why not start the process of a swtich and look for your LB core to be Maybin, Mitchell, McClain and Poz? If you want to get Morgan or an offensive player then of course it would be more difficult to make that switch.
As I stated…do we have ther personell for a 3-4…no, but it doesn’t mean you can’t make a quick switch and get a stop gap NT. To me a lot will depend on Schobel. With Schobel back it should make your DE’s a position of strength in a 4-3. With him gone, if you aggressively make the move to a 3-4 it can be done in full by the start of 2011.
Question, which defense gave up more points this year, Denver or Buffalo? It was a trick question and the answer was Buffalo. But it was by two points. And not two points per game, Buffalo gave up 2 more points than Denver did this season. Denver’s D completely collapsed, giving up 26 points per game in their 10 games after the bye.
Denver’s run D gave up 4.5 yards per carry which is hardly any better than Buffalo too.
While Denver’s defense did change 5 of the 7 DL/LB starters, 3 of them were backups on their team the year before. Unless we actually want the Bills’ equivalent of Mario Haggen, Ryan McBean and Kenny Peterson starting next year.
There are some major differences between those situations as well. Most importantly that Denver already had an offense. Their OL was considered one of the best in the league and the trio of Marhsall, Royal and Scheffler is as solid as they come. They didn’t need a massive overhaul on that side of the ball like Buffalo does. Denver also ended up making the equivalent of three first round picks last year as they traded Cutler and traded their 2010 first rounder. They ended up making five picks in the first two rounds.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
by kaisertown on Jan 25, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I totally agree MRW
I was going to put up a fanpost in this same vein but you beat me to it. I apologize if I repeat somethings already said but I read about 120 of the comments before I had to skim through because of work. Here’s why I agree with MRW:
In a 3-4 the entire scheme is dependent on the ability of a nose tackle – ideally weighing 325-360 lbs – who is chiefly responsible for controlling the offenses efforts to utilize the gaps and lanes between the center and guards. The NT can never be pushed backwards if a play is to be successful because the integrity of the center of the defensive line will be compromised if he does and the two inside linebackers behind him will be unable to make any plays on the runner or as a pass rusher. On a running play the nose tackle has to be able to have the strength and force to either explode into one of the gaps and tackle the runner or intercept a guard or center trying to get upfield to make a block on a linebacker if he can’t get to the runner. Because a 3-4 takes away a down lineman, the NT will often be double or triple teamed by guards and centers who are themselves 320+ pounds each. This makes it absolutely necessary that the NT is enormous and requires two other enormous men to have a chance of moving him off the line. He also needs to have the size and power to swallow multiple blockers who will try to take advantage of the 3-4 to seal off the linebackers.
Contrary to what some say, Marcus Stroud is not at all suited to play NT in the NFL.
NT measurements in the league: Vince Wilfork (6’2 325 lbs) Casey Hampton (6’1 325 lbs) Kris Jenkins (6’4 360 lbs) Jamal Williams (6’3 348 lbs).
Marcus Stroud is 6’6 310 lbs. Not only is his weight too low for a NT, his height makes him a slimmer 310 then guys like Casey Hampton who is 6’1 and weights 15 lbs more. Marcus Stroud is without a doubt a big and powerful DT, he is strong, has powerful and long arms, and can clog the middle and eat up blockers. However, we have all watched Marcus Stroud wear down later in games this year and last year. He doesn’t always give his all out effort and when he doesn’t he gets pushed baclwards by linemen he shouldn’t. For his size he can get beaten by smaller blockers, we’ve all seen it. He is thus too inconsistent to reliably anchor the 3-4 as a NT and his wearing down late in games and being pushed off the ball by blockers smaller than him will be flaws compounded by his small stature for a NT in a 3-4.
The problem of playing Stroud at NT would make the structure of the middle of our defense even more insecure when one considers who we have at linebacker on this team. It is my belief that Aaron Maybin would be a fantastic OLB in 3-4. A great 3-4 has two OLB’s who can use their elite first step quickness to mask whether they are blitzing or hanging back to the opposing QB. Elite 3-4 OLBs use quickness and speed to confuse QBs presnap. Maybin is perfectly suited for this as his speed, quickness and athleticism make him a natural edge rusher. But the fact is that Kawika Mitchell is not. I like him because he makes hustle and effort plays but he really isn’t as fast as he looks. Because of this Kawika and Poz would have to become our two ILBs. And that – in addition to Stroud at NT – is the crux of the problem. Poz and Kawika would excel at one responsibility of ILBs in the 3-4, reading and reacting to short and intermediate passing plays developing. Where they would struggle is that in a 3-4, the ILBs need their DEs but mostly their NT to occupy as many of the 5 offensive linemen as possible to make up for missing a down lineman and to free up the ILBs to make the tackles they have to. These ILBs have to be especially strong at shedding blockers – mostly fullbacks, tight ends, and the guard/center that isn’t occupied by the NT – to get to the running back and maintain the strength of the inside of the defense. The bad news is that neither Poz nor Kawika are strong block shedders. We’ve seen them both in action and both are well equipped for a 4-3 because they use their anticipation skills to read, react and hit the hole the back is going for with strong tackling skills. They make their plays when they are freed up by their defensive line to make the tackle with as little blocker contact as possible. In a 3-4 they will have to make their money shedding blocks and blasting through linemen and fullbacks. I like Poz and Kawika because both of them have awesome instincts, trusting their ability to react to a developing run to get in position to make a tackle. Unfortunately, in 3-4 instincts aren’t enough as you need to have the strength and technique to get past the o-line.
If we combine the unsuitability of Marcus Stroud for the 3-4 as a NT with the unsuitability of Kawika Mitchell and Poz to be ILBs in a 3-4 we end up with a defense that will have absolutely no strength in the middle of its defense.
I do firmly believe that both Kyle Williams and Marcus Stroud can be excellent DE in a 3-4. In a 3-4 size and strength are key to success for DEs as is an ability to line up heads up on a tackle and get a good first push and be strong at the point of attack. Kyle and Marcus have both shown they can do that by being disruptors as 4-3 DTs. The desired qualities here are strength at the point of attack, ability to clog running lanes, and beating double teams. I think Marcus and Kyle can do that. In terms of size, they both appear to be well suited. Richard Seymour is the same height and weight as Marcus Stroud and Kyle Williams is similar in stature to Jacques Cesaire. They can do it.
While I totally agree with MRW, I am not as convinced that a 3-4 can’t be done. I only wonder if it should. The fact is, if we do it, we will have to find a NT and three linebackers. This is in addition to our need for a QB and a LT. Not to mention the depth we’d need at LB. Our only suitable LB is a second year player but I think he can be fine. A guy like Poz could be successful in a 3-4 if he is a strong, big blockshedder at ILB next to him. But we don’t have that. Finding three starting linebackers and a NT in one off-season is almost impossible in a year when we also need a QB and LT.
"you just have to know there's always going to be adversity. None of these games are going to be easy. Nothing will be given to us" - Paul Posluszny
The point that is getting lost in all of this is...
The teams that run a 3-4 effectively have the ability to install a lot of blitz packages and get pressure on the QB. Teams that have run a 3-4 have given Peyton Manning the most trouble. And if Peyton is the most cerebral QB to ever play the game ( that statement could be argued, but he’s definitely up there ), that is an advantage worth having.
Joe P. made the point that today’s NFL is a passing league. There’s no question that it is. The WR’s have such a huge advantage today, so disrupting the QBs timing is becoming more and more important. Fewer teams are running to set up the pass, while more of the successful teams are able to pass to set up the run.
The argument that we don’t have the personnel is a valid one, but it doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t move in that direction. No matter what scheme we run, we have to have the right people in it. And they have to stay healthy for it to work.
My point is: We shouldn’t avoid a switch to a 3-4 just because our current roster wouldn’t be able to make the switch next year. I want the Bills to be perennial favorites to win the AFC East for a long time. I’m not saying that a 3-4 defense will do that for us, but like I said, teams that run it well have an advantage in putting pressure on the QB. It could take just as long to put together a DLine like the Giants or Vikes have had. If we switch, we can’t do it in one draft. Obviously, we’ll have to make moves in free agency. And if we have to let half of our front seven go to do it, so be it. It’s not like we’re loaded with young talent up front anyway.
Schmucks don't make it to the Pro Bowl... except Jason Peters!
by Run Thurmal Run! on Jan 25, 2010 5:55 PM EST reply actions
Teams that have run a 3-4 have given Peyton Manning the most trouble.
Not for a few years they haven’t.
www.manningface.com
yea he diced up that jets 3-4
and they have Revis.
"you just have to know there's always going to be adversity. None of these games are going to be easy. Nothing will be given to us" - Paul Posluszny
not in the first half, which is twice as long as it usually takes :-)
Rexy just forgot that you need a plan B for the second half when you play Manning.
"Do you even hear how totally bat sh!t insane you sound?" - Archer
true
Not for a few years they haven’t.
True. But historically… the Pats, Steelers and Chargers have still given him more trouble than most teams. Work with me here fellas! =P
Schmucks don't make it to the Pro Bowl... except Jason Peters!
by Run Thurmal Run! on Jan 25, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
Until this year the Giants had a great pressure D and shut down the greatest offense of all time in the Super Bowl two years ago. They ran a 4-3. There’s not one way to skin a cat.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 25, 2010 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
Cat-Killa!
There’s not one way to skin a cat.
There is one way to skin a cat, actually, there’s more than one way to skin a cat…
: )
There are even multiple ways of saying that “There’s more than one way to skin a cat”…
"there are more ways of killing a cat than choking it with cream"
"there are more ways of killing a cat than by choking it with butter"
"there are more ways of killing a dog than choking him with pudding"
"there are more ways of killing a dog than hanging him" (ask Ron Mexico)
by NorCal BillsFan on Jan 25, 2010 9:56 PM EST up reply actions
how do you choke a cat with butter?
"you just have to know there's always going to be adversity. None of these games are going to be easy. Nothing will be given to us" - Paul Posluszny
Yes, but
again… how often in today’s NFL are teams able to piece together a front 4 with names like Osi and Justin Tuck? Or even better, the Vikes front four. We’ve had an issue with keeping elite talent over the years in addition to being able to spend a lot of money to acquire elite talent. The Giants had a lot of money tied up in that defense at the time, and the Vikes have invested a lot of money in theirs. We haven’t been doing that, and it doesn’t look like that will change in the near future.
Schmucks don't make it to the Pro Bowl... except Jason Peters!
by Run Thurmal Run! on Jan 25, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t want to turn this into a money issue. When you look at teams that have converted to a 3-4, how many of them did it by investing a top 10 pick in a space eater at NT. We don’t have to compromise the offense if it happens. By simply drafting less DBs in the later rounds, we might be able to acquire some role/depth players to do the job. It’s not gonna happen in one draft or one season. I’m not that naive.
Getting pressure on the QB has been a glaring need for a long time. We’ve got a good secondary, but we can’t expect them to hold up if the opposing QB has time to throw the ball.
Schmucks don't make it to the Pro Bowl... except Jason Peters!
by Run Thurmal Run! on Jan 25, 2010 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
how many of them did it by investing a top 10 pick in a space eater at NT.
Packers last year. The Chiefs and Broncos didn’t and got run over.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2010 9:11 AM EST up reply actions
Raji wasn't a huge part of the Packers' defensive success though
He was rotated in, but only started one game all season.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Who did start at NT for them and how did they acquire him? Was he new to the roster or just a big fatty they had loafing around?
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
Ryan Pickett
acquired prior to the 2006 season in free agency.
He’s a good player. Remember when he turned the Bills down?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
So he was on their team. We don’t have anybody like that on our team short of PS guys. I dunno. I just see that spot as being so important and hard to fill.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
NT
You don’t have to draft a BJ Raji in the top 10 to make the switch. A space eater can be found in FA or in the later rounds of the draft. It might not be a Pro Bowler or a staple of the defense… but it can work.
What are the chances that we can keep 2 above average DE’s for any length of time? There’s a reason why Mario Williams was drafted ahead of Reggie Bush… they’re hard to find and even harder to keep when you consider Buffalo’s spending habits.
Schmucks don't make it to the Pro Bowl... except Jason Peters!
by Run Thurmal Run! on Jan 26, 2010 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
The last time that Buffalo thought they had two above average DEs, they locked them up long term. Granted, Schobel was a little overpayed and Kelsay wasn’t any good to begin with. Buffalo’s spending habits don’t stop them from keeping anybody. 3-4 OLBs cost just as much anyways. When was the last time that Buffalo even lost an FA because of money? Clements a few years ago? Buffalo choose to let Fletcher and Greer walk more recently.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
So instead of building a dominant front 4 you want to build a dominant LB 4? I don’t see how it’s any different.
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by MattRichWarren on Jan 26, 2010 9:10 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
applause!! applause!!!
Thank you MRW!!!
"you just have to know there's always going to be adversity. None of these games are going to be easy. Nothing will be given to us" - Paul Posluszny
Not to be contrary, but LBs do tend to be a little less expensive than linemen.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
MLBs do, but OLBs in a 3-4 are marginally less expensive than 4-3 DEs. I’d say the average cost to run a 3-4 and 4-3 are probably identical. If anything, starter three standard OLBs in a 4-3 would make it cheaper than 5 DL or pass rushers and 2 LBs in a 3-4. An OLB in a 3-4 isn’t really a linebacker.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
I think the bills should either move to a 3-4 or a pressure 4-3. The cover 2 would be effective if the offense produced anything but since the offense doesn’t, the Cover 2 just prolongs the game and gives the illusion that it’s closer than it really is. Under a new scheme alot of the defensive players should be gone because many of them are too small and too weak to play in other schemes.
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