My (Incredibly Early) Mock Offseason vol. 1

by nickfeely8 on Jan 5, 2010 1:29 AM EST Comment 31 comments

Alright, so we all know the season just ended on a somewhat high note. I'm extremely excited about 2010 for our Buffalo Bills and here's my first look at how I think the offseason should play out.

Coach

Out of the candidates rumored around the team right now, my early guess is that we'll end up with Marty Schottenheimer. While he hasn't necessarily endorsed the job, he hasn't flat-out denied it either, and I think his style of football would fit really well with our identity. Run the football, good defense, dominate physically.

For an offensive coordinator, I love the idea of Marty's son, Brian, coming along. With the way the Jets have been able to run the ball this year (especially with three different backs and even some innovation with Brad Smith) and protect their rookie QB after a rough start, I think he'd bring the same kind of thing that Marty does - an attitude that we will be better physically than anyone else and we will be able to run it down their throats whenever we want.

For a defensive coordinator, I'm not exactly sure who Marty would look at, but I'm comfortable knowing that he'd bring in someone solid to run the dominant defense that we can be.

Free Agency

Unrestricted free agents
Ryan Denney - gone
Chris Draft - bring back as a reserve
Todd Johnson - gone
Seth McKinney - gone
Terrell Owens - I'd try my damndest to bring him back to Buffalo. I really think with the right offer (monetarily speaking), he'd return, though I'm not sure how he'd feel about Marty-ball in Buffalo. That might turn him off right there.
Josh Reed - I say let him walk. He's been solid (and to use a Galliford term, unspectacular), but I think we've got the horses to let him go and give a young guy a shot.
Bryan Scott - I love his versatility and playmaking ability. Bring him back and give him a shot at a starting safety spot next year. Great run defender from the defensive backfield.
Kendall Simmons - gone

UFAs that will be RFAs w/no new labor deal
Keith Ellison - if he wants to be a backup, I say keep him, but don't let him go into next year starting.
Gibran Hamdan - sorry #10. Go do a TV show or something.
Richie Incognito - love his toughness even if his attitude is a little overblown. try to bring him back, especially if Wood's injury keeps him out for next year.
Joe Klopfenstein - gone.
George Wilson - veteran leader. great personality and ST captain. gotta try to keep him.
Ashton Youboty - talented but our defensive backfield is full and he's injury prone. gone.

Normal Restricted free agents
Derek Schouman
Jonathan Scott

Exclusive rights free agents
Marcus Buggs
Jon Corto
Christian Gaddis
Justice Hairston
Cary Harris
Jonathan Stupar

I'm not terribly attached to any of the rest of these guys, even with Harris' two picks on Sunday. Use these guys or others as fill-ins and PS players.

NFL Draft

I'd love Clausen, but at 9 he's good as gone. I'd also like Suh or McCoy, but they're out, too. At 9, I think our best bet is either Russell Okung (if he's available), or, my favorite pick at the moment, Rolando McClain.

I say take McClain at 9, which would give us a stud Mike to go into 2010.

Second round I think we try to take a shot with McCoy or Tony Pike. Personally, I like Tony Pike as the pick there.

I like the idea of moving Lynch for a possible 3rd rounder if we could get that and taking a RB sometime in the middle rounds to be our #2 back. I'm not sure where Jahvid Best is expected to go but I wouldn't mind taking a chance on another Cal back.

To round out the offseason, I think we should make a play for Jason Campbell. With Zorn gone in Washington I think Shanny will want to bring in his own guy there and Campbell has really got some talent in my opinion.

If we don't get Owens back and we lose Reed, I think we also need some WR help into next year. Out of the possible free agents, my personal favorites are Malcolm Floyd, Kevin Walter, and Michael Jenkins. All would come fairly cheap and provide a target opposite Evans in TO's absence.

2010 Outlook:

QB - We'd have Campbell going in as the starter, with Pike as the developing #2 and Brohm sitting at #3. We'd have a really young corps with some good talent I think.

RB - Jackson and our draft pick would be the primary carriers.

WR - I don't think we'll get TO back. So, it's Evans, FA #1, Steve Johnson, James Hardy.

OL - I don't think Wood will be back in time. It's Bell, Levitre, Hang, Incognito, Butler.

DL - I think Schobel will come back and not retire. Schobel, Williams, Stroud, and Kelsay/Maybin.

LB - Poz, McClain, Mitchell

DB - Drayton Florence, Terrence McGee, Leodis McKelvin, Reggie Corner at the corners. I'm extremely comfortable with this. I love the way Florence played this year. Byrd and Whitner at the starting safeties with Scott the backup/blitzer/play on run downs guy.

All in all, I think this team would be a fringe playoff team. Would it get us a championship? No, but I think it would be a large improvement from this year.

I'm sure you guys have opinions. Let's hear 'em.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Comments

hmm Tony Pike or Tebow??

Didn’t Tebow throw for 500 yards vs the best defense in college football? I really don’t understand why Tebow cannot be good. He has crushed every record in college football. He has almost won every game. I hope this guy goes in the hall of fame just to spite all the downers. Is it his fault he plays in that style offense at FL? Clausen is all the sudden the top QB prospect cuz he played in a pro style offense. What about if Tebow played in a pro style offense? He hasn’t been able to get that chance.

I like your pick with McClain. He would lock up the middle for years and we could bump Poz to outside. I also think Nic Harris could start on the other side or perhaps Maybin since he has shown absolutely no promise at DE.

I would take McClain at 9 and do everything possible to grab Tebow at the bottom of the first. The guy is too talented to pass up, and has the ability to be great. In 20 years if he goes down as one of the all time greats, the Bills fans will look back and weep since we actually had a shot at him. I wouldn’t take him at 9 but i would try to pull a Losman type trade to grab him.

I don’t like campbell. I would rather see Vick with Tebow developing. Vick is probably the best overall option to help this team win next year. No rookie or other Free agent will give us a better chance. We also need to somehow pick up some solid tackles. We have too many hole to fill. But you have to take McClain if he is there, he will be the best available option for us i think at 9

by csc06258 on Jan 5, 2010 2:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like your ideas as well...

As you said, I left Tebow out because we would have to trade up to nab him, and that’s just not something I wanted to speculate on just yet. I’m certainly not a Tebow hater or doubter at all, I think I just want to see how his draft stock plays out before going near that prediction.

Vick would be my second choice if we were bringing in an FA QB. I really do think Vick still has it left in him, but I think Campbell’s a better bet at this point. He’s younger, he doesn’t come in with emotional baggage, and he doesn’t have to shake off the rust of two years in prison and one year on the bench in Philly. If we grabbed Vick instead I wouldn’t be devastated, but I prefer Campbell. As long as we don’t get Pennington.

by nickfeely8 on Jan 5, 2010 2:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yea, what I hate is those people who say, “i won’t be a bills fan if we get Tebow.” you see it everywhere. Lets be honest, you will be a Bills fan until there is no team here anymore. Tom Brady would be the only one who might make me think about switching teams just cuz I hate him so much. Tebow is probably the greatest college football player ever, he “will” do “something” in the NFL, that I can bet you. It will be interesting to see how his draft stock raises or falls once the combine hits and the pro days. But IMO i would do everything possible to make sure I grabbed him. Either by trading back into the first, which we have done numerous times, or be trading out of 9 and picking up more later round picks, which would also be a good thing since we have a lot of holes to fill.

by csc06258 on Jan 5, 2010 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well this is similar to what i posted so… I said McClain and Campbell, i doubt u copied it though but i said McClain and Cambell too and McClain is my favorite player in the draft next to Suh and Clausen

You guys might not know this, but I consider myself a bit of a loner. I tend to think of myself as a one-man wolf pack. But when my sister brought Doug home, I knew he was one of my own. And my wolf pack... it grew by one. So there... there were two of us in the wolf pack... I was alone first in the pack, and then Doug joined in later. And six months ago, when Doug introduced me to you guys, I thought, "Wait a second, could it be?" And now I know for sure, I just added two more guys to my wolf pack. Four of us wolves, running around the desert together, in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine. So tonight, I make a toast! - The Hangover

by atlantalove on Jan 5, 2010 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're right.

I didn’t copy you. It’s possible we both believe that it’s the right move.

McClain shores up the biggest need on our defense (IMO) and keeps us in games even if the offensive line struggles to get going.

by nickfeely8 on Jan 5, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

While I agree on Tebow, I disagree on your reasons. Just because he sets records, doesn’t mean he is an NFL QB; Graham Harrell, Colt Brennan for example. These spread, one-read systems hinder development a pro style offense allows.
csc, playing in a pro style offense dictates how fast one can learn reading NFL defenses. Can he get better? Absolutely, Alex Smith and Vince young are proving (although much longer) that they can, with consistent coaching, succeed. However, Tebow is too big of a risk. Like I said, I agree with getting Tebow in end of round 1, but I hate the argument that he is a proven winner and he set many records.

by jerseybuckeye on Jan 5, 2010 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I do like what you have I would want to at least bring in a starting tackle via the draft or free agency, Butler has shown his injury prone and also I would like to bring in 1 more linebacker to fight for playing time instead of keeping Ellison……Jason Campbell would be a good QB here as long as you take him out of the west coast offense, he has a strong enough arm to handle are weather in december

Rrrawrrrr, rrrawrrr like a dungeon dragon-Busta Ryhmes

by Moe_frm_B_ on Jan 5, 2010 8:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Campbell fits a BIllick offense (if billick is the choice and i think he is)

better than a Zorn offense and some stability would do him good…if hecame here he would be garuenteed the same HC for at least a few years and most liekly the same OC so he would have a chance to grow in the same Offense

"The only yardstick for success our society has is being a champion. No one remembers anything else." John Madden

by BRIANMULHALL on Jan 5, 2010 8:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

ok campbell

if you dont take mclain trade away 9 pick for 2 other picks and go later no pike your reaching for a guy who plays spread offense would take years to develop same with tebow why do you think his stock is so low look at lafevour cnt michigan you could pick the guy late 2nd or 3rd

by goodberry on Jan 5, 2010 10:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

What?

Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.

by WhyBillsWhy on Jan 5, 2010 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am perfectly fine with Campbell

But I really think it’s hard to gauge the picks without figuring the style defense the Bills run. If they switch to a 3-4 Kelsay/Schobel will be gone (trade/retirement), and I could see the Bills trading away other players as well just to get picks so they can change over the D.

I like Rolando McClain – but I think the Bill could trade down in the draft and end up better off. The LB situation and OT situation are in desperate need for help, but WR is still a ?.

I wouldn’t mind the Bills upgrading the O-line, the front 7 of the D and getting Campbell or Pennington if he comes in – IMO the QB situation for the 2011 draft looks better then this year

I was born in Buffalo, and NO, it's not a suburb of New York City

by Ghetts on Jan 5, 2010 12:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

So, it’s Evans, FA #1, Steve Johnson, James Hardy.

Yikes! I hope we get Malcom Floyd in this case!

Go Bills! I mean 'stay' Bills...

by the Uncommon Denominator on Jan 5, 2010 1:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Seriously. Better hope the FA is a slot receiver and Hardy and Johnson split time at #2.

Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.

by WhyBillsWhy on Jan 5, 2010 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

I suppose it’s scarier than I originally thought, but I think it’s realistic if Owens doesn’t come back. I mean, even if we brought back Reed, would you want to put him back in at #2, or let a free agent test the waters there?

For the record, I would love to get Malcolm Floyd. He’d be a nice tall target opposite Evans and if used correctly could be great in the red zone.

Which reminds me, I thought TO was supposed to help our redzone troubles? Did we even throw to him once in the redzone? I don’t think so.

by nickfeely8 on Jan 5, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How many times did we actually reach the redzone?!?!

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Jan 5, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Or reach the red zone and get penalized out of it?

Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.

by WhyBillsWhy on Jan 5, 2010 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We definitely threw to T.O. once in the red zone. He scored TD a few weeks ago on a crossing pattern in the red zone.

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by MattRichWarren on Jan 6, 2010 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

also

why not give Hardy a shot to win a starting job? I mean, I know he hasn’t had a ton of NFL experience with the tough injury and everything, but why draft him to be a starting receiver in the second round if you’re never going to play him?

He has the talent and he should be completely healthy for the whole offseason going into 2010. So, I say give him a chance. With a QB who will actually throw the ball around the field, who knows how successful he could be.

by nickfeely8 on Jan 5, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree.

I think Hardy will get his shot, and deservedly so. But we have seen a tiny bit of him so far, and it has been average rout running and separation, with one super play, the TD vs Jacksonville.

And yeah, TO was thrown to in the red zone.

Go Bills! I mean 'stay' Bills...

by the Uncommon Denominator on Jan 5, 2010 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

do you

have any examples where he was thrown to in the red zone? I’m not calling you out or anything, but I’ve been thinking back as hard as I can and I can’t even remember a single time we tried to get it to him there.

by nickfeely8 on Jan 5, 2010 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How dare you call me out!!

lol… You got me on the details. I recall an overthrown fade to the right corner of the end zone, early in the season. And I believe he had a drop in the red zone in another game. I am going to go to the web now to find evidence. I am in agreement with you that his presence in the red zone was less than we expected.

Go Bills! I mean 'stay' Bills...

by the Uncommon Denominator on Jan 5, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That was fast, thanks NFL.com Situational Stats!

Field Position Rec Yds Avg Lng TD 1st 1st% 20+ 40+
Own 1-20 – by Yard Line 12 206 17.2 98 1 6 50.0 1 1
Own 21-50 – by Yard Line 24 336 14.0 51 1 14 58.3 4 1
Opp 49-20 – by Yard Line 13 244 18.8 46 2 10 76.9 4 3
Opp 19-1 – by Yard Line 6 43 7.2 9 1 3 50.0 0 0

link

Go Bills! I mean 'stay' Bills...

by the Uncommon Denominator on Jan 5, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He did have the TD in the Chiefs game

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Jan 5, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks

for the stats, didn’t know that NFL.com was that specific.

So, yeah, 6 receptions in the red zone.

I think we can all agree that his redzone presence was the biggest disappointment of the T.O. experience.

Overall, though, I really think that it was a mild success and he should be brought back. With the right scheme (i.e. an offense that schemes to get him the ball at least 5 times a game), he still has the talent to dominate a game. You would think after the 9 catch, 197 yard performance we would have done that, but, clearly, the talent just isn’t there at QB.

by nickfeely8 on Jan 5, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think we can all agree that his redzone presence was the biggest disappointment of the T.O. experience.

For me, it was the production from Evans. I really hoped he would shine this year, due to the attention TO drew. But that has to do with the state of the O-line, etc.

Go Bills! I mean 'stay' Bills...

by the Uncommon Denominator on Jan 5, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You are projecting the same O Line as last year?

I would think this would be an area that you would want to upgrade…….significantly.

One of the top three LTs [Okung/Campbell/Davis] will be available at # 9. Any interest?

by NorthLeft12 on Jan 5, 2010 1:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I did consider upgrading the line

as clearly that’s a problem area. But I think one of the largest problems was injuries and inconsistency with the personnel. I think I’d be willing to allow those 5 to go into the season starting and let them gel together. We’ve talked about how Levitre, Hang, and Incognito have the talent to make solid middle of the line and I think Butler has fringe starting talent on the right side. As poor as Bell played this year, I think he would survive a regime change if they like his talent as much as the past staff and I could see him getting the nod to start the year at left tackle into 2010.

by nickfeely8 on Jan 5, 2010 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We just blew up our entire coaching staff...

And their will only be two new starters (QB and MLB)?

With all due respect, Nix sounds like he will be junking the Tampa 2 andwhile we won’t be bringing in 22 new starters, I would expect a lot more changes on Defense. If not, it will surely be another depressing Bills season. I like the McClain pick, but that’s about it. Just my opinion though.

"Who is Beethoven?" - Marshawn Lynch

by Brainwave on Jan 5, 2010 2:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't think our defense is in need of junking.

Adding McClain actually makes two new starters on defense if you think that moving Poz to the outside counts as a (new) starter. Also, Florence wasn’t a starting corner last year but as Brian said Nix knows him from SD and he’s a nice physical corner. I think McKelvin will be the third/nickel corner, so that’s a new starter as well.

I think our defensive backfield is good without tinkering, the linebacking core would be fine with the addition of McClain and the return of Mitchell, and our line would be fine if Schobel returns and we try to work Maybin in a bit more.

If anything, I’d be concerned with the lack of changes on the offensive side of the ball than on defense. Our offense is what is holding us back.

by nickfeely8 on Jan 5, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

rec'd for nothing more than being able to see that this defense isn't terrible

something it appears escapes the short-sightedness of many bills fans. i wouldn’t mind McClain if we trade back to around 15, though I’m starting to hop on the bandwagon of drafting DE with our first pick (Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech, 6-4 270).

whether or not Maybin panned out/still pans out, Kelsay needs to be replaced and I think our run containment will be helped more by getting a new DE. on top of that i think it might be easier to find a good OLB later in the draft compared to finding a good LDE.

by neverbeentobuffalo on Jan 5, 2010 4:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs