Bills Stat Crunch: Spiller Remains Big Part Of Game Plans
I've finally gotten caught up in re-watching the last two games the Buffalo Bills have lost - Week 2 in Green Bay, and Week 3 in New England. Thus, I've got a ton of stats queued up behind the scenes, and some of the data is pretty revealing.
Spiller Most Frequently-Used RB
One of my biggest complaints to date this season has been the lack of touches for rookie running back C.J. Spiller. I was somewhat surprised to discover that Spiller has gotten more playing time than both Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson through three games.
Spiller has been on the field for 37.8% of Buffalo's offensive plays. That's a slightly higher figure than the 36.59% of plays that Lynch has seen, and the 32.93% of plays that Jackson has gotten. (For those of you adding, keep in mind that the Bills have used more than one back on the field on a small percentage of plays.) The fact that no Bills running back is seeing a significant amount of time may bother some, but to their credit, they've gotten production out of all three guys.
Targets Per Reps
Continuing to talk about Spiller, he's by far the most frequently-targeted Bills player in the passing game when playing time is considered. Lee Evans leads the team in targets, but he's on the field much more than most of Buffalo's offensive weapons. Targets-per-rep gives us an idea of players that Chan Gailey and the quarterbacks are targeting in game plans.
Here's the full list of the nine Bills players that have been targeted, and how frequently they're targeted:
C.J. Spiller: targeted on 20.97% of his reps
David Nelson: 16.67%
Steve Johnson: 11.45%
Lee Evans: 10.43%
Roscoe Parrish: 9.27%
Fred Jackson: 9.26%
Jonathan Stupar: 5.88%
Marshawn Lynch: 3.33%
Corey McIntyre: 1.79%
Developing linemen
Ron covered this a little bit yesterday, so I'll keep this brief. Buffalo seems to be concentrating on getting reserve linemen live game reps, subbing in players like Jamon Meredith (in the first two games, at least), Cordaro Howard and Kraig Urbik despite no injuries to the starting five. Buttressed by a Week 2 injury to Andy Levitre, Howard has by far seen the most time of the three players, and has graded out surprisingly well despite playing three different positions. He and Urbik appear to be in line for more reps going forward, even with all five starters healthy, and Demetrius Bell and Eric Wood as close to 100% as they're going to get.
Offensive Mainstays
Buffalo has six offensive players that have played at least 80% of the team's snaps this season: Geoff Hangartner (100%), Evans (99.39%), Cornell Green (98.78%), Eric Wood (96.34%), Roscoe Parrish (92.07%) and Demetrius Bell (86.59%). That's four of five starters along the offensive line and the two starting wide receivers.
Defensive Mainstays
Buffalo has five defensive players that have played at least 80% of the team's snaps this season: Donte Whitner (98.96%), Drayton Florence (98.45%), Chris Kelsay (96.37%), Kyle Williams (85.49%) and Terrence McGee (81.87%). Kelsay is the only OLB on the roster to see more than a third of the team's defensive snaps.
D-Line Rotation
I've gotten a lot of emails asking me how much playing time each of the five defensive linemen that have been active through the first three games has gotten. Your answer:
Kyle Williams plays on 85.49% of defensive snaps
Dwan Edwards plays on 76.68% of defensive snaps
Marcus Stroud plays on 64.25% of defensive snaps
Spencer Johnson plays on 32.64% of defensive snaps
Torell Troup plays on 15.03% of defensive snaps
Sub-Package Data
* Andra Davis, who plays predominantly in 3-4 looks, plays on 51.3% of defensive snaps. He has, however, seen some nickel looks on third-and-short due to the injury to Paul Posluszny.
* When Buffalo uses four down linemen, they typically take their Jack linebacker off the field, and put the Sam linebacker (Kelsay) on the line of scrimmage. Buffalo's Jack linebackers, Chris Ellis (Week 1) and Reggie Torbor (Weeks 2 and 3), have combined to play 47.67% of snaps.
* Aaron Maybin has played 32.12% of snaps, with the overwhelming majority of his work coming in Week 3. I've seen him drop into coverage exactly once. He's not playing as poorly as most casual observers would have you believe, either - but clearly, he's got a long way to go. Dwan Edwards has stolen some of his reps at defensive end in shorter-yardage nickel packages.
* Bryan Scott, who plays in nickel and dime packages, has been on the field for 41.45% of defensive snaps.
* Reggie Corner, who is only on the field for dime packages (at least until tomorrow afternoon), has played 17.62% of snaps, and like Maybin, the vast majority of his work came in New England.
***
If anyone has any specific questions about player or package usage, I can offer fact. If your questions pertain to performance, I can also offer opinion.
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isnt Lee Evans 10% targeted stat just as misleading as his leading the team in targets considering hes out there for 99% of the snaps and thus for every play that is going to someone else?
I like that all three running backs are being used evenly, everyone was clamoring for a three headed rushing attack and thats what we’re getting. nice.
Kyle Williams has been a better NT than anticipated. Its a good example of why you dont trade good football players just because they dont fit the scheme. A football player is a football player and Kyle can play.
I’d like to see Aaron Maybin’s snap count go up. From your re-watching of the film is he enough of a liability compared to what else we have on the roster to warrant keeping his reps down Brian?
Very interesting piece, thats some really nice information. Much appreciated.
"I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly"
I must admit...
I didnt think T-Rex was going to play as well as he has so far… I didnt think he would fit at all in this 3-4… but he hasnt played too bad from what Ive seen.
Id also like to see Maybin out there more… I have faith in this kid I really do. I just think the more reps we can get him the better he’ll be long term.
Awesome recap Brian. Rec’d
Buffal Bills. We have no 'O'
I am not as impressed with Williams’ play as you two are. He’s been OK, but he’s miscast as a two-gap defender. He’s far more effective in their nickel and dime looks than their 34 packages, because he’s good at what he’s good at.
by Brian Galliford on Oct 2, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah,
I guess it mainly has been the nickel and dime packages that hes made a real impact. What do you feel is the main reason behind Troup only getting about 15% of snaps? What is it thats keeping him off the field.
Buffal Bills. We have no 'O'
Troup has a ways to go technically. He’s playing the two-gap role, but sometimes struggles to control defenders and get off blocks. Once he turns the corner technically, I think you’ll see his PT increase, possibly dramatically.
by Brian Galliford on Oct 2, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Maybin – yeah. He needs more time, but he’s so bad against the run that he’s not going to get it yet.
by Brian Galliford on Oct 2, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
How much longer until Maybin clearly DOESNT have a long way to go?
"Oh man, moral victories and pulling confidence from losses, that's crap" -Marcus Stroud
by norcaliangelsfan on Oct 2, 2010 2:44 PM EDT reply actions
Great question....
I would like to ask: I thought Maybin was going to be playing rush OLB. But it seems from your write-up and others I have read that he is playing DE. What percentage is he playing at each? And which is he performing better at?
Depends on the perspective. I should quantify: he’s got a long way to go before he sees a significant increase in playing time. I think he’s doing a lot better than advertised as a pass rusher.
by Brian Galliford on Oct 2, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
haha
how would you know how long untill he clearly doesnt have a long way to go that is such a vague issue to question. He could never make it and just be a bust idk how they would expect you to answer that
Well, you can take a stab at it. Within the confines of the defensive scheme, Maybin is just doing OK – which is far better than the “ZOMG HE SUCKSXS BUST” attitude that most have toward him. He has flashes of competency, and is slightly more often (no sarcasm) handled easily by OTs. His biggest problem against the run is being gap sound; he’ll misread and get way out of position because he’s so fast. George Edwards needs to give him a little more freedom on passing downs, and he needs to bite the bullet and let him get some experience a) standing up, and b) defending the run, as well.
by Brian Galliford on Oct 2, 2010 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I would say minimum.
How much longer until Maybin clearly DOESNT have a long way to go?
2-3 years.
Maybin had 1 year under his belt of starting at penn state, then came out for the draft and was taken at #11, so this year would be he is senior season if he stayed in school and would have gotten much more playing time than he has here to build experience and up his game.
Demarcus Ware was also a #11 pick who came out after starting 3 years in college as a senior. He had 8 sacks his rookie season.
I would be shocked to see 8 sacks from Maybin next year since he just doesn’t get on the field enough. Maybe if he gets on the field for half this season and all next season. he might have a shot in 2012 for a breakout year. Taking a redshirt sophomore with so little playing experience in college has to rank up there as one of the most foolish picks of the last decade.
There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.
by The Buffalo Kid on Oct 2, 2010 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybin ....
I dont understand why they dont rush Maybin standing up and y they dont send extra players on a Bilitz on Maybins side??
by brebre421 on Oct 2, 2010 3:16 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
They tend to be conservative with the blitz because their linebackers are so brutal in coverage. As for standing up, I have no idea. I wish they’d give that a try.
by Brian Galliford on Oct 2, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
My guess as to why is.....
and it’s only a guess but maybe they already know what he can do standing up and are trying to develop him to be a complete end…..
His biggest problem against the run is being gap sound; he’ll misread and get way out of position because he’s so fast.
I thought they were going to develop him more as a OLB and get him off the line.
It sounds like ehen we are in nickel (which it sounds like we were in a lot of the last few weeks) we run more of a 4-3. If so, who are generally the down lineman (besides Kelsay and Williams)?
Substitutions on the defensive side of the ball appear to be way higher this year than last year, could be good or bad…
“4-3” means 4 linemen, 3 linebackers. We are very rarely in that package. Our nickel package is four linemen, two linebackers and 5 DBs, or, if you’re technical about it, four linemen, one linebacker, Bryan Scott, and another five DBs.
Kelsay is always at end with four linemen. Dwan Edwards gets time out there, as do Maybin and Spencer Johnson (usually when he’s spelling Edwards).
by Brian Galliford on Oct 2, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
I realized that was silly the second I wrote it. I guess I meant we go with more of a traditional 2DE 2DT. Sounds like Stroud comes off, which is interesting.
Not always. They have two packages – a “heavy” package in which Edwards (sometimes Johnson, sometimes Stroud) is at DE with Kelsay; then a “light” package in which Maybin is with Kelsay, and then they have Edwards/Williams at DT, and rotate in Stroud/Johnson.
by Brian Galliford on Oct 2, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
It seems like they are in nickel, and dime a lot
Is this because teams are really coming at us with 3+ wr alot or are we using the heavy nickel even in some run type downs?
They’re using nickel a bit against two-TE formations because we’re so unbelievably awful at covering those players.
by Brian Galliford on Oct 3, 2010 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions
thanks yeah we have been playing some good TE teams
I remember last year hearing Scott was real good at blanketing the TE. Is he not able to do that out of the 3-4 as well?
So then...
…what position does Bryan Scott play in your mind?
developing linemen
There are little things that I see out of Chan that I REALLY like, such as his consistent use of pulling guards. Another strategy I love is fact that he’s keeping Howard and Ubrik involved when he isn’t forced to. I see quite a few advantages there:
Keeps the new guys learning
Won’t have to be panic mode if someone needs a spell at a critical time
The opposition might be looking for the changes, and when the O has ’em guessing, they have the advantage
Keeps the starters focused by taking a bit of the edge off the stress, knowing they have capable back-ups
There are little things that I see out of Chan that I REALLY like, such as his consistent use of pulling guards.
seriously undee. we were doing that in game 1 last year against the patsies when AVP was OC.
There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.
by The Buffalo Kid on Oct 3, 2010 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Spiller's targets
So does this mean that whenever Spiller’s on the field, it’s very obvious that we’re going to throw him the ball?
Or does it mean whenever he’s on the field he’s in position to make a play due to skillful design/his good play?
It means that we’ve thrown him a lot of swing passes, basically. His YPC should answer your second question.
by Brian Galliford on Oct 3, 2010 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Jack vs Sam
Can someone explain to me the difference between a Jack linebacker and a Sam linebacker?
This should help
http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2010/5/6/1460598/examining-lb-job-responsibilities#storyjump
If all the stars align, pigs learn to fly, humanity achieves world peace, doctors discover a cure for cancer, scientists perfect cold fusion, and hell freezes over, the Bills might win the SB this year.
Sam is usually on the Tight End side of the formation.
Buffalo born & bred. Bills fan since 1968.
by MtJulietTNBillsFan on Oct 3, 2010 9:38 AM EDT reply actions

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