I thought I'd do a little surface analysis of the idea that the Bills put themselves in a better position by losing games and acquiring the first overall pick. How has that little idea really played out?
Well, the results - admittedly not a thorough breakdown - were enlightening.
|
YEAR |
TEAM |
Subsequent |
Years Between #1 Pick and Subsequent Championship |
|
1980 |
N/A. |
N/A |
|
|
1981 |
2010 |
29 |
|
|
1982 |
2002 |
20 |
|
|
1983 |
1998 |
15 |
|
|
1984 |
New England Patriots |
2002 |
18 |
|
1985 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
1986 |
2003 |
17 |
|
|
1987 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
2003 |
16 |
|
1988 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
1989 |
1993 |
4 |
|
|
1990 |
2007 |
17 |
|
|
1991 |
Dallas Cowboys |
1993 |
2 |
|
1992 |
Indianapolis Colts |
2007 |
15 |
|
1993 |
New England Patriots |
2002 |
9 |
|
1994 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
1995 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
N/A |
N/A |
|
1996 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
1997 |
2000 |
3 |
|
|
1998 |
Indianapolis Colts |
2007 |
9 |
|
1999 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
2000 |
Cleveland Browns |
N/A |
N/A |
|
2001 |
Atlanta Falcons |
N/A |
N/A |
|
2002 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
2003 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
N/A |
N/A |
|
2004 |
2008 |
4 |
|
|
2005 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
2006 |
Houston Texans |
N/A |
N/A |
|
2007 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
2008 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
2009 |
Detroit Lions |
N/A |
N/A |
|
2010 |
St. Louis Rams |
N/A |
N/A |
Only FOUR times since 1980 has the team who took the first overall pick in the draft been able to produce a championship within 5 years. The overwhelming trend is that the team continued to miss out on the big one. The average years to championship for teams who DID finally manage to win one was over 12 years! And that excludes the teams that have continued to fail so taking that into consideration it seems completely obvious:
TAKING THE #1 PICK IN THE DRAFT DOES NOT GUARANTEE A TURNAROUND ANY MORE THAN TAKING THE 2ND OR 3RD PICK....
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