Lynch and Moss
by biffalobull on Oct 6, 2010 11:40 AM EDT
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I've heard alot of rumblings in here lately about how we didn't get enough for Lynch, but try looking at it this way. Assuming that the Moss trade actually goes through as it is being reported the Viks gave the Pats their 3rd round pick. Assume the Viks make the playoff and go out in the first round, making the pick somewhere around the 20th pick in the 3rd round (or 84th overall). Accoring to the ESPN draft value chart that pick is work 120 point. Now assume that the Seahawks finish say 4-12, make the pick the gave us somewhere around the 6th pick in the 4th round (102 overall) that pick is worth 92 points. Then assume that Lynch plays well and we get a 5th round pick next year. The Seahawks improve a bit and we get the 8th pick in the 5th round (136 overall) in 2012 , that pick is worth 38 points. Add them together and we got 130 "value points" for Marshawn.
So, essentially, we got the same ammount value for trading Lynch as the Pats did for trading Randy Moss. Whether you liked the trade or not, looking at it from this perspective I find it hard to believe we didn't get a good price for Marshawn.
Comments?
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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Why would you assume the Vikings would make the playoffs but the Seahawks would finish 4-12?
That seems like a stretch.
Should have drafted Sanchez.
by Fearless Frog on Oct 6, 2010 11:57 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think that would b worst case scenario for the bills if the seahawks lose out and the best case for the patriots. So the bills value that theyre getting can only go up and the value of the patriots trade can only go down.
It sounds like the best case scenario for the Bills. However i did a samiliar mock draft order and i had SEA picking at 7 and the Vikings at 29. I think Moss and Rice are going to open things up for Favre and AP. Good move by them, none the less:
Buffalo (from SEA) has the 103rd and a 5th in 2012
New England (from MIN) has the 93rd pick.
So, only a 10 pick differential between randy and marshawn. not too shabby. Throw in the extra pick and that about evens things up. Buffalos total Value = would be about 122 (with the Hawks picking around 15) and New Englands Value being about 125
Shun the non Billievers!
Seattle has 2 wins already… and they play in a very, very weak division. Theyll finish .500ish.
Buffal Bills. We have no 'O'
Actually, Seattle is 1-3 and not a very good team overall, but my point really wasn’t to quibble over a couple of “value points” in any directions. Even if seattle finishes 8-8 and the Vikes finish 6-10, we still would have got nearly the same value for a problem child running back one mistake away from a year suspention that the Pats got for a sure first ballot hall of famer.
Draft picks are the most overvalued commodity in the NFL
Lynch, Moss . . . imagine what someone could get for a 1st round draft pick? Especially the Bills’ first round draftpick, sure to be top 10, likely to be top 5, not unlikely to be top 3.
Given how much rookies get paid, and how much uncertainty surrounds their contributions, is there any commodity in the NFL more overvalued?
And given the Bills draft record, why would we not trade more picks? The fact we never traded picks, or traded down, was, in fact, my first clue Nix was clueless.
My days are swifter than a weaver's shuttle, and are spent without hope.
by Job 7:6 on Oct 6, 2010 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
lot of GMs plan the draft to the picks they have in hand… lot of GMs dont move around… your judgement of Nix based on that comes out as thoughtless.
Colts barely move… I havent seen Titans move a lot… the only teams I have seen moving a lot are jets, ravens, patriots, chargers and now broncos
Richard Seymour
was traded to NE for Oaklands first, which could be top 5. I could be wrong, but i dont think there was anything else in that trade.
Given how much rookies get paid
Outside the top 8-12 picks, rookies really don’t get paid much at all. It’s actually been very tough for teams to move around in the top 5 picks, other than when a QB is involved. I don’t think Buffalo could get as much for a top 5 pick trying to trade for a veteran as people think. As the first round goes on, players become great value financially. Think about all the great players that have been taken in the 20s recently (Harvin, Oher, Matthews, Nicks, Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Keller), those guys get paid about 2 mil per season for 4-5 years. That’s the value that people don’t see in draft picks. The Vikings can resign Moss for 8 a season while the Pats can draft a guy in the 3rd round, pay him about a mil per season for four seasons and use that extra money to resign a player like Logan Mankins or go out and make a solid FA addition somewhere else.
And given the Bills draft record, why would we not trade more picks?
The Bills draft record isn’t relevant. Different decision makers, different thought process, different schemes to draft guys into. That Mike Williams and JP Losman were busts doesn’t make the Bills more likely to draft a bust. Say that Bill Polian were to step down and the Colts made an outside hire. Would it make sense for Colts fans to argue that their picks are more valuable due to their draft history? We don’t know if Buddy Nix knows how to find talent in the draft or not.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
Can I blame the brain-destroying bills for my sloppy writing on rookie pay? perhaps; I did mean to limit my statement to the Bills 1st round picks. A guy like Dez in the 20s for a couple mil a year is a steal, no doubt.
But reading your secon point is like watching the bills on 3rd and 10. The Bills’ scouting organization was largely untouched by Nix. Modrak Majeski are still the #2 and #3 guys. And early to judge Nix on this year’s picks? sure, but anyone can judge after the fact — as much as we can look ahead, it sure doesn’t look like he knocked it out of the park in 2010.
Bills scouting is weak. That makes our picks less valuable.
My days are swifter than a weaver's shuttle, and are spent without hope.
That 7th round pick certainly tips the scales of the trade decidedly one way.
Heh.
Should have drafted Sanchez.
by Fearless Frog on Oct 7, 2010 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions
We got enough
Not like he was lighting it up on the field! Lynch’s stock has dropped considerably around the NFL since his first two seasons.
looking at the moss trade should quiet everyone on this board saying the bills didnt get enough
if anything, they probably got too much from a team that was desperate.
4 games into the season, and we’re talking how the Bill’s are in re-building mode. Well, New England is still winning games after re-vamping their Defense, and next year’s draft they’ll have 2 #1’s (one from Oakland so it will be high), 2 #2’s, and now 2 #3’s. It looks like the next 10 years will be alot like the last 10.
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